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Gamasutra's in depth tie-ratio analysis

Kenka

Member
Sounds interesting nonetheless :

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=23308

As the figure above shows, Xbox 360 owners have traditionally purchased more software than their Wii or PS3 counterparts. The Wii's tie ratio does not include Wii Sports, which is packaged with the system, so one might very well consider Wii owners as having more software on average than the numbers show.

Till March 2009 :

360 : 8.3
PS3 : 6.5
Wii : 6.2

LTD software (March 2009) :

360 : 124 M
Wii : 121 M
PS3 : 49 M
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
The graphs:

2ajodd.jpg


118hsb7.jpg


2uxydrc.jpg
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
So the Wii's tie ratio is still rising at roughly the same pace as the competition despite its record-breaking hardware sales?

Insane.
 

cakefoo

Member
Pretty good tie ratio for PS3 users considering it's been out a year less than 360, and some PS3 owners bought it solely for Blu-ray playback.
 
Damn either the PS3's tie ratio is bad or the Wii's tie ratio is really really good. Though I'm sure that someone
and by that I mean a swarm of people
in this thread will have absolutely no idea how the amount of hardware sold can effect the tie ratio thus will argue that the Wii is doing poorly and the PS3 isn't that far behind the 360 given the circumstances.
 

markatisu

Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
Damn either the PS3's tie ratio is bad or the Wii's tie ratio is really really good. Though I'm sure that someone
and by that I mean a swarm of people
in this thread will have absolutely no idea how the amount of hardware sold can effect the tie ratio thus will argue that the Wii is doing poorly and the PS3 isn't that far behind the 360 given the circumstances.

Its probably both as illustrated here

2uxydrc.jpg


PS3 is still behind the 360 when things are aligned, and Wii is far ahead

What is the tie ratio without Wii Play inflating the numbers?

A $10 game does not count?
 

Kenka

Member
cakefoo said:
Pretty good tie ratio for PS3 users considering it's been out a year less than 360, and some PS3 owners bought it solely for Blu-ray playback.

For the love of God why do people always come with this kind of comments RIGHT IN THE BEGINNING and feel they have to defend something ? It is ok sir, IT IS OK.

Everybody is doing fine, no need to go this way in every thread.

What is the tie ratio without Wii Play inflating the numbers?


...




Anyway, just substract 7 millions from 121, you obtain 114.

121 ---> 6.2

114 ---> x

Find x.
 

ymmv

Banned
PSGames said:
Wow. I've always been under the impression that the numbers were a lot closer for some reason.

The numbers are closer if you're talking about worldwide sales of course. PS3 is doing much better in Japan and Europe.
 

cakefoo

Member
PSGames said:
Wow. I've always been under the impression that the numbers were a lot closer for some reason.
http://i40.tinypic.com/2uxydrc.jpg

Software sales increase exponentially as time goes on. Say the average gamer buys 4 games a year. With 5 million consoles, that means 20 million in software. Say a year later the console base is 10 million. That means 40 million more games sold that year. The next year there's 15 million consoles and 60 million more games.
 

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
cakefoo said:
Pretty good tie ratio for PS3 users considering it's been out a year less than 360, and some PS3 owners bought it solely for Blu-ray playback.
That's more than a year's difference between the 360 and PS3.
 

cakefoo

Member
Kenka said:
For the love of God why do people always come with this kind of comments RIGHT IN THE BEGINNING and feel they have to defend something ? It is ok sir, IT IS OK.

Everybody is doing fine, no need to go this way and in every thread.
What, it is pretty good considering the factors working against it.
 

Tron 2.0

Member
cakefoo said:
Pretty good tie ratio for PS3 users considering it's been out a year less than 360, and some PS3 owners bought it solely for Blu-ray playback.
I find it hard to believe that a significant portion of the PS3's install base purchased the system solely to play Blu-Ray films.

But, really, no need to defend the PS3's tie-ratio.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
border said:
What is the tie ratio without Wii Play inflating the numbers?

answer this question: can microsoft or sony make software like wii play and sell ten million units?

if the answer is yes: well then why shouldn't we count it? they can do it but don't. it's not an unfair advantage that microsoft and sony choose not to do it.

if the answer is no: so there's something unique about wii play that can only be done on the wii? it's complex enough or hard enough to get right that you don't think the other manufacturers can do it? that's a reason TO count it.

saying software doesn't count because it's a good value is totally off the wall
 
Tron 2.0 said:
I find it hard to believe that a significant portion of the PS3's install base purchased the system solely to play Blu-Ray films.

But, really, no need to defend the PS3's tie-ratio.

At launch, yes. Now, no.
 

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
I really think Wii play was just correct timing. It came out near the systems launch, and was a way to get an extra game and controller. Really, anyone can do it, but it will only work as well as Wii play if its done near the systems launch, and is sold in a large area (This can be seen with Microsoft's attempt, which did it 2 years after the system came out, and was only available to buy in very few stores.)

Also, making it so the game is only available with the controller will help IMO.


Also, the 360 numbers could be inflated with its pack ins. Whos to say they don't count Hexic HD, or all 5 games on the arcade disk as there own games? And while they most likely don't do those things, the 360 pack in are most likely counted, which are inflating the numbers, so I really think Wii Sports should count.
 

Kenka

Member
As a Nintendo fan, I used to behave exactly the same way under the Cube-era
except the optic-format argument
:lol
 

Kenka

Member
lawblob said:
It would be interesting to know the lifetime tie-ratio for the NES, SNES, Genesis, etc..

Worldwide, the NES tie-ratio is roughly 500/62 = 8.3 Which corresponds to 360's current attach ratio in US.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Stumpokapow said:
answer this question: can microsoft or sony make software like wii play and sell ten million units?

if the answer is yes: well then why shouldn't we count it? they can do it but don't. it's not an unfair advantage that microsoft and sony choose not to do it.

if the answer is no: so there's something unique about wii play that can only be done on the wii? it's complex enough or hard enough to get right that you don't think the other manufacturers can do it? that's a reason TO count it.

saying software doesn't count because it's a good value is totally off the wall

But what if the system it is on is a kiddy console though? HA, bet you didn't think of that, M. Fanboy.
 

Chrange

Banned
PSGames said:
Wow. I've always been under the impression that the numbers were a lot closer for some reason.

Well yeah, but that only counts two days of PS3 sales. You wait for next month.
 
Stumpokapow said:
answer this question: can microsoft or sony make software like wii play and sell ten million units?

if the answer is yes: well then why shouldn't we count it? they can do it but don't. it's not an unfair advantage that microsoft and sony choose not to do it.

if the answer is no: so there's something unique about wii play that can only be done on the wii? it's complex enough or hard enough to get right that you don't think the other manufacturers can do it? that's a reason TO count it.

saying software doesn't count because it's a good value is totally off the wall
You missed the most damning evidence though, which is that it doesn't appeal to my personal tastes! Surely you can't count it after that startling revelation.
 

Accident

Member
Drkirby said:
=


Also, the 360 numbers could be inflated with its pack ins. Whos to say they don't count Hexic HD, or all 5 games on the arcade disk as there own games? And while they most likely don't do those things, the 360 pack in are most likely counted, which are inflating the numbers, so I really think Wii Sports should count.


The NPD doesn't count hardware pack ins as software sales.
 

LiquidMetal14

hide your water-based mammals
The ratios make sense with the data we're getting. The one real surprise is seeing PS3 above with software ratio.

And good on the NPD group for not counting pack in games as part of this.
 

cakefoo

Member
grandjedi6 said:
That's more than a year's difference between the 360 and PS3.
There are PS3's out there that are used solely for movie watching (primarily sold during the format war) which also brings the attach rate down. Of course, attach rate doesn't mean much, but it does indicate that whoever's buying it for games is buying plenty of them.

To Kenka: To explain my "spin," I didn't focus much on the Wii or 360's sales because I don't own those consoles. And I'm not sure why it's ok to highlight, "The Wii's tie ratio does not include Wii Sports," but it's not ok to say anything about the PS3 being a Blu-ray-only device for hundreds of thousands of people. :/
 

Tk0n

Member
cakefoo said:
but it's not ok to say anything about the PS3 being a Blu-ray-only device for hundreds of thousands of people. :/

maybe because its bull?
there arent hundreds of thousands of people who bought a ps3 solely as a blu ray player.
 
cakefoo said:
There are PS3's out there that are used solely for movie watching (primarily sold during the format war) which also brings the attach rate down. Of course, attach rate doesn't mean much, but it does indicate that whoever's buying it for games is buying plenty of them.

To Kenka: To explain my "spin," I didn't focus much on the Wii or 360's sales because I don't own those consoles. And I'm not sure why it's ok to highlight, "The Wii's tie ratio does not include Wii Sports," but it's not ok to say anything about the PS3 being a Blu-ray-only device for hundreds of thousands of people. :/

Maybe because if it weren't highlighted, there would be numerous posts either asking about it or assuming the ratio includes Wii Sports? I think everyone who's been on these boards has heard the Blu-Ray argument.
 

border

Member
Stumpokapow said:
answer this question: can microsoft or sony make software like wii play and sell ten million units?

if the answer is yes: well then why shouldn't we count it? they can do it but don't. it's not an unfair advantage that microsoft and sony choose not to do it.

You can count whatever you want. It's shovelware bundled with an essential 1st party accessory though. I don't really care about what's "fair," I just want to get a sense of what the real software market is without a fairly significant outlier. If I was a third party software developer I would want to see numbers that legitimately reflect what I can do. Nobody besides the first parties are capable of doing this, so why pay attention to the warped numbers?

Kenka said:
Anyway, just substract 7 millions from 121, you obtain 114.

121 ---> 6.2

114 ---> x

Find x.

I guess my math teacher wasn't full of shit when she said I'd need algebra.

Tie Ratio is 5.8 without Wii Play (assuming roughly 19.4 million systems sold)
 

cakefoo

Member
Tk0n said:
maybe because its bull?
there arent hundreds of thousands of people who bought a ps3 solely as a blu ray player.
Based on time spent on Blu-ray forums, a lot of people did buy a PS3 solely for Blu-ray. It's sad, but true.
 

cakefoo

Member
Little Green Yoda said:
Maybe because if it weren't highlighted, there would be numerous posts either asking about it or assuming the ratio includes Wii Sports? I think everyone who's been on these boards has heard the Blu-Ray argument.
Sorry, too busy in a debate with someone who doesn't believe the Blu-ray argument.
 
LiquidMetal14 said:
And good on the NPD group for not counting pack in games as part of this.

I've argued this point many times especially with people who want to inflate the first month MGS4 numbers by using the pack in version as well. Pack in games should never be counted because no one can say for sure that the customer would have bought the game had it not been free in the box.

If pack ins were counted, then any company could easily inflate the numbers of sold copies. Think of it, Kung Fu Panda would have been one of the best selling games last Christmas if they counted pack ins.

I'm glad they leave them out.
 

Jive Turkey

Unconfirmed Member
cakefoo said:
but it's not ok to say anything about the PS3 being a Blu-ray-only device for hundreds of thousands of people. :/
Why stop there? If you're going to pull numbers out of your ass why not try HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS!!!
 

Karma

Banned
ymmv said:
The numbers are closer if you're talking about worldwide sales of course. PS3 is doing much better in Japan and Europe.

Do we have total software numbers for Japan? Seems I have seen them posted before and they were not much. Something like 5 Million to 2 Million.
 

cakefoo

Member
Jive Turkey said:
Why stop there? If you're going to pull numbers out of your ass why not try HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS!!!
You're right, I apologize for pulling the number out of thin air. I came across looking like I was stating a fact, when it was really just a guess. But from skimming Blu-ray forums since the format war, there are plenty of Blu-ray early adopters who picked the PS3 for its profile support, and not for its value as a gaming console. I'd be very surprised if there were any less than 200k PS3's sold to those people.
 

Cipherr

Member
border said:
What is the tie ratio without Wii Play inflating the numbers?

Its probably about the same as the tie ratio would be without the most popular game of the gen being a GODDAMN PACK-IN deflating the numbers would be. :lol
 

Gravijah

Member
cakefoo said:
You're right, I apologize for pulling the number out of thin air. I came across looking like I was stating a fact, when it was really just a guess. But from skimming Blu-ray forums since the format war, there are plenty of Blu-ray early adopters who picked the PS3 for its profile support, and not for its value as a gaming console. I'd be very surprised if there were any less than 200k PS3's sold to those people.

I know when I'm trying to figure out what MASS CONSUMERS do, I go straight to DA FORUMS.
 

border

Member
Puncture said:
Its probably about the same as the tie ratio would be without the most popular game of the gen being a GODDAMN PACK-IN deflating the numbers would be. :lol
Wii Sports is a pack-in precisely because it wouldn't have done well as a solo retail SKU. Certainly not to the point where it would get some ridiculous title like "MOST POPULAR GAME OF THE GENERATION". :lol
 
I'd be interested to see numers showing how many weeks each console has been owned. With Wii still outselling its competetors more than 2:1, it stands to reason that the average Wii owner has had their console for a signicianly less amount of time than the average 360 or PS3 owner. As such, I'd expect the Wii's tie-in ratio to be considerably lower than it is. I'd also expect the Wii's numbers to be lower due to the fact that the most popular game this generation is included with the system.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
border said:
You can count whatever you want. It's shovelware bundled with an essential 1st party accessory though.

Yes, you are correct; Wii Play is a $10 game bundled with a controller. That is why people buy it. This is not a stunning revelation. But that's not a reason not to count it. Again, using the negative term "shovelware" implies it's a low effort piece of junk that's just thrown out there. Let me ask, then, why haven't Microsoft and Sony done it? It's clearly profitable. It clearly sells. Your opinion is that it's low effort. They should be punting these things out left, right, and center.

... but they're not. And this is significant.

I don't really care about what's "fair," I just want to get a sense of what the real software market is without a fairly significant outlier.

Would you exclude similarly significant outliers for other consoles? Wii Play's tie ratio is about 0.5 to the Wii in the US. Stop and think carefully before you answer.

If I was a third party software developer I would want to see numbers that legitimately reflect what I can do. Nobody besides the first parties are capable of doing this, so why pay attention to the warped numbers?

Well, first, ought we to exclude first party software in general, then, since first parties have innumerable structural advantages on their own platform (not the least of which was Sony's lower pricepoint on the PS2 for first party titles!)

But continuing the train of logic; were a third party piece of software to be packed with an accessory, would you want to exclude that? Because this is happening in Japan with the Classic Controller and in Europe with Motion+.

I'd also add that if you were a third party, you'd have to be clinically insane to use overall software sales and tie ratio to evaluate the P&L for a project. You compare relative to genre, relative to budget, relative to profile of the title. Aksys isn't looking at Killzone 2 to determine how BlazBlue PS3 is going to sell, I can guarantee you that.

The purpose of these numbers isn't to determine "As a third party and with absolutely no further information, would my game sell?" it's to give an overview of how much software an audience buys. The reality is that the Wii's audience buys somewhere around the same amount of software as everyone else despite having a packin game and despite the overall audience being so much bigger in the same time or less.

border said:
Wii Sports is a pack-in precisely because it wouldn't have done well as a solo retail SKU. Certainly not to the point where it would get some ridiculous title like "MOST POPULAR GAME OF THE GENERATION". :lol

it wasn't a pack-in in Japan and it's the most popular console game of the generation...
 
border said:
Wii Sports is a pack-in precisely because it wouldn't have done well as a solo retail SKU. Certainly not to the point where it would get some ridiculous title like "MOST POPULAR GAME OF THE GENERATION". :lol


Didn't the game sell fantastically well and continue selling for a long ass time in Japan, where it WASN'T a pack in?
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
border said:
You can count whatever you want. It's shovelware bundled with an essential 1st party accessory though.

When has Wii Play become shovelware? I mean, you could argue that it's short, not meaty, simple in its design, not for you, a tech demo, an introductory piece of software (which it is by the way, as its centered around the pointer functionality of the Wiimote), but shovelware? Last time I checked, it doesn't show any signs of half-assing, demographics pigeonholing or general lack of polish. I'd understand the reasoning if it cost 50, 40 or even 30 bucks, but for 10 bucks?

Wii Play isn't shovelware.
 

Jocchan

Ὁ μεμβερος -ου
Kilrogg said:
When has Wii Play become shovelware? I mean, you could argue that it's short, not meaty, simple in its design, not for you, a tech demo, an introductory piece of software (which it is by the way, as its centered around the pointer functionality of the Wiimote), but shovelware? Last time I checked, it doesn't show any signs of half-assing, demographics pigeonholing or generally lack of polish. I'd understand the reasoning if it cost 50, 40 or even 30 bucks, but for 10 bucks?

Wii Play isn't shovelware.
Didn't you get the memo?
When you sell 1 million, your game becomes a non-game.
When you sell 10 millions, your game becomes shovelware.
That's how it works.
 
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