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[damidu]

god! kill it already, its getting beyond emberassing.
next year around this time, series will be even more irrelevant, by ps5 vs series s - pro vs sx faceoffs.
only thing you can hope to do is constant firesales at this point. to give it any semblance of pulse

 

[DForce]

Releasing a next-gen Xbox console within the next two years would be a disaster....unless they're going to go a completely different route and hope for the best.

 

[nosoynadie22]

 

[nosoynadie22]

 

[mckmas8808]

You should try and do the math on that

They are at 28 million now. I see them selling 6 million in 2024 (no less than 5 million). Then I see them selling at least 3.5 million in 2025 (mainly due to GTA6). And finally in 2026, they should be able to sell 2 million minimum. So that's borderline 40 million total.

You don't think they can do even that?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

They are at 28 million now. I see them selling 6 million in 2024 (no less than 5 million). Then I see them selling at least 3.5 million in 2025 (mainly due to GTA6). And finally in 2026, they should be able to sell 2 million minimum. So that's borderline 40 million total.

You don't think they can do even that?

The Xbox Series launched in November of 2020. If you think they sold 28 million in the first 3 years, that's an average of 9.3 million units per year, but that also presumes a straight trajectory and we know that isn't the case.

Why would GTA6 drive Xbox sales?

So even with your suspect math, it still didn't reach a full 40 million.

Do you think the Xbox sold 10 million year 1, 10 million year 2, and 8 million in year 3? Do a proper breakdown of the annual sales, and you won't project 6 million. You assumed a little more than half because of GTA5, I can tell your premise is entirely off.

 

[yurinka]

But releasing games on a competitor’s platform is pure stupidity,

No.

Game budgets are rising and most of them won't be no longer profitable only on their platform. That competitor has a way bigger market share.

Going multiplatform makes them the biggest publisher in the market, help them become profitable or at least to highly reduce loses.

Meanwhile, Sony has the biggest revenue, profit and active userbase they ever had.

Was just going to write it. Do we have another example of a company killing their brand due to incredible mistake at a strategic level and being forced to pivot so badly? Surely within a year Phil has to be replaced, seeing as his strategy killed the brand?

Atari or Sega.

But I think Phil won't be replaced, I think MS's strategy since before he became CEO was to slowly transition to move their gaming business away from Xbox hardware and become a full multiplatform publisher with Windows as their main platform and being a minimum top 3 global gaming company in revenue. And they are doing it pretty well, they are achieving it.

 

[Goalus]

#1 PS5 -2% yoy

Ooooof...

 

[MaxwellParrish]

Despite a strong critical reception, the second part in the Final Fantasy VII remake trilogy didn't match the performance of the first game, with opening week sales down 23% over its predecessor (including sales of the double pack). Of course, Remake arrived on a different platform with a bigger install base (PS4) and also launched during the early weeks of COVID-19 lockdowns, when games were in higher demand.

This in reality means that Rebirth in Europe has sold more copies in a lesser timeframe than Remake, because the " opening week" di Remake was actually the result of more than 15 days of sale, because the game had broken the street date of launch by 9 days, and all that sales only apperead after the official launch week

 

[Mibu no ookami]

god! kill it already, its getting beyond emberassing.
next year around this time, series will be even more irrelevant, by ps5 vs series s - pro vs sx faceoffs.
only thing you can hope to do is constant firesales at this point. to give it any semblance of pulse

I think what people have to realize is that it is a VERY different time than say the Dreamcast.

Xbox gains a ton of revenue from 3rd party royalties and there are still more units sold than the Dreamcast. Xbox would rather sell their first party games on their platform than PS5 and Switch where they are going to lose 30 percent. Back in the day Sega would only get 5-15% on royalties, but as the retailer itself that number is significant.

Microsoft will do everything they can to have their cake and eat it too, but consumers should go into that with eyes unclouded.

Eventually the vast majority of Xbox games are going to be on PlayStation whether they are day 1 or at a later date. Microsoft probably isn't going to spend any money on 3rd party exclusives going forward. So the only reason to buy an Xbox is if you want GamePass or you just love Microsoft's studios and want to play those games day 1 or if you're totally invested in Xbox Live.

I'm guessing the next Xbox will be a niche but high end gaming rig still playing xbox titles rather than PC games. This will be in tandem with maybe a really cheap version like XSS and a streaming device, but I don't think they'll go toe to toe with Sony moving forward (on a like for like powered console).

I think the next Xbox will be super powerful, but also sold for a profit rather than a loss. So imagine 600-800 dollars, maybe even a grand.

Their goal will be to sell to hardcore gamers and people who want to stay in the Xbox ecosystem no matter what. I think this is where the idea comes from that they could work with OEMs to manufacture Xbox consoles. So you might see a few different specs.

 

[apocaliptic]

Waiting to get one XSX when is given for free with the $1 gamepass subscription. Will be great for 4k blurays

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Look at that picture. What a Chad, sitting on success like it's nothing

 

[Cyber_hunter026]

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Yeah XBOX is done and bringing games to PlayStation will only damage the XBOX hardware even further which is saying something. Releasing another console early probably isn’t going to resolve their issues, but it could even escalate them especially if Microsoft’s current trajectory doesn’t change in the future.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Yeah XBOX is done and bringing games to PlayStation will only damage the XBOX hardware even further which is saying something. Releasing another console early probably isn’t going to resolve their issues, but it could even escalate them especially if Microsoft’s current trajectory doesn’t change in the future.

they are bringing Xbox games to PS because the damage is already too big; one could say that is already massive and growing.

 

[demigod]

Estimates for only 4 weeks

Feb 2023:
PS5: 250K
NSW: 120K
XBS: 60K

Feb 2024:
PS5: 240K
NSW: 100K
XBS: 30K

With 5 weeks Feb 2024

PS5: 300K
NSW: 135K
XBS: 35K

How did you get 240,000 from 2% of 250k?

 

[Varteras]

Sony holding the market while Nintendo takes its time getting the next console out.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

It's impossible to tell without the actual numbers because each month sells a different amount especially when some months are 5 weeks and some are 4 weeks.

The Xbox Series launched in November of 2020. If you think they sold 28 million in the first 3 years, that's an average of 9.3 million units per year, but that also presumes a straight trajectory and we know that isn't the case.

Why would GTA6 drive Xbox sales?

So even with your suspect math, it still didn't reach a full 40 million.

Do you think the Xbox sold 10 million year 1, 10 million year 2, and 8 million in year 3? Do a proper breakdown of the annual sales, and you won't project 6 million. You assumed a little more than half because of GTA5, I can tell your premise is entirely off.

From Xbox FTC leaks we know after 5 quarters they shipped 12.4 million (4.6m after 2 quarters and another 7.8m added in the following 3 quarters) so after 13 quarters around 28 million sounds realistic, i think ampere also estimated over 28 million at the end of 2023 as well. For calendar years i estimate shipped numbers at 3.1m for 2020, 9.3m for 2021, 8.7m for 2022 and 7.6m for 2023.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

From Xbox FTC leaks we know after 5 quarters they shipped 12.4 million (4.6m after 2 quarters and another 7.8m added in the next 3 quarters) and after 13 quarters around 28 million sounds realistic, i think ampere also estimated over 28 million at the end of 2023 as well.

The question wasnt whether 28 million was realistic or not.

Not sure where you got that

 

[mckmas8808]

The question wasnt whether 28 million was realistic or not.

Not sure where you got that

That was the question. And you disagreed with me on it for some reason. We knew they were at like 23 million Spring of 2023.

 

[Vroadstar]

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That was the question. And you disagreed with me on it for some reason. We knew they were at like 23 million Spring of 2023.

No the question was whether they could get to 40 million.

What I disagreed with was your premise that the Xbox Series would sell 6 million units this year and what I asked you to do was to breakdown the last 3 years of worth of 28 million units and that if you thought the Series sold 10 million units per year for the first 2 years, that would only give you 8 million for the 3rd year, but the likelihood was that it was even less than that. That was with Starfield. Based on what math would you believe the Series will sell 75% of what it sold last year with no major titles?

 

[Fredrik]

PlayStation as a platform will exist on PC, Console, and Handheld. That's Sony's strategy. They can make higher margin with a PC Storefront than they can on a console storefront.

Just sounds like Microsoft’s strategy… Including doing delayed PC ports which is how it started last gen when PS fans said Xbox wasn’t needed anymore…

Going multiplatform makes them the biggest publisher in the market, help them become profitable or at least to highly reduce loses.

At the cost of killing their platform. That’s why I think it’s short-sighted. Wouldn’t surprise me for a second if dinosaur Nintendo is the only survivor as a platform holder at the end.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Just sounds like Microsoft’s strategy… Including doing delayed PC ports which is how it started last gen when PS fans said Xbox wasn’t needed anymore…

Yeah, it isn't.

Sony's strategy is around leveraging the success of the PlayStation console. There is no successful Xbox console.

Microsoft's strategy is around GamePass which is a subscription service failing to grow substantially.

That you think their strategy is the same reveals serious bias and is a kin to say two basketball teams have the same strategy because their strategy is to score more points than their opponent.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

They are at 28 million now. I see them selling 6 million in 2024 (no less than 5 million). Then I see them selling at least 3.5 million in 2025 (mainly due to GTA6). And finally in 2026, they should be able to sell 2 million minimum. So that's borderline 40 million total.

You don't think they can do even that?

Seriously doubt it.
I would even say they'd be lucky to get to 35M.

When the bigger titles hit Playstation, like Starfield and Hellblade, Xbox sales will drop even harder.

 

[Fredrik]

Yeah, it isn't.

Sony's strategy is around leveraging the success of the PlayStation console. There is no successful Xbox console.

Microsoft's strategy is around GamePass which is a subscription service failing to grow substantially.

That you think their strategy is the same reveals serious bias and is a kin to say two basketball teams have the same strategy because their strategy is to score more points than their opponent.

I mean you’re more biased than most so keep on trying to pull me under that umbrella and I’ll just put you on ignore like the rest of the console fanboys. If you can’t see the risk of doing ports at this point then I don’t know what to say. For survival exclusives should stay exclusive, for real. Once they start to show that there are alternatives things will go south.
At this point I’m thankful for the ports though, finally built my living room PC after thinking about it for years; no Xbox needed, no Playstation needed, I just need somewhere to run Steam plus Nintendo consoles now, feels awesome tbh

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I mean you’re more biased than most so keep on trying to pull me under that umbrella and I’ll just put you on ignore like the rest of the console fanboys. If you can’t see the risk of doing ports at this point then I don’t know what to say. For survival exclusives should stay exclusive, for real. Once they start to show that there are alternatives things will go south.
At this point I’m thankful for the ports though, finally built my living room PC after thinking about it for years; no Xbox needed, no Playstation needed, I just need somewhere to run Steam plus Nintendo consoles now, feels awesome tbh

Keep dreaming.

 

[Fredrik]

Keep dreaming.

Living the PC+Nintendo dream already, never felt better

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Living the PC+Nintendo dream already, never felt better

Sony isn't going to do the same as MS in regards to PC releases.

If we could see how dumb it was for MS to do it, Sony certainly knows it's going to kill their brand.

 

[mckmas8808]

No the question was whether they could get to 40 million.

What I disagreed with was your premise that the Xbox Series would sell 6 million units this year and what I asked you to do was to breakdown the last 3 years of worth of 28 million units and that if you thought the Series sold 10 million units per year for the first 2 years, that would only give you 8 million for the 3rd year, but the likelihood was that it was even less than that. That was with Starfield. Based on what math would you believe the Series will sell 75% of what it sold last year with no major titles?

Gotcha. Good question. I think the new hardware coming out will boost their sales. I'm also assuming that they'll have a price cut on all current inventory. Those Xmas sale prices will be permanent come this summer. And finally isn't COD supposed to be in Gamepass this year? I'm assuming that help the Xbox Series consoles.

But I think it's 6 million max! Could be as low as 5 million. So somewhere in between 5-6 million.

 

[mckmas8808]

Seriously doubt it.
I would even say they'd be lucky to get to 35M.

When the bigger titles hit Playstation, like Starfield and Hellblade, Xbox sales will drop even harder.

My assumption even with the bigger titles hitting PS5 AND switch is that Xbox's yearly console sales will drop 25%. That's a huge drop in my eyes. That'll be around 5.5 million units sold in 2024.

Thats horrible. You honestly think it'll be even worse than that?

 

[kazuyamishima]

It’s really foolish to believe Sony is following Microsoft’s strategy by putting their games on PC.

Xbox demise is due to low quality output more than anything, Gamepass also plays a big part in all of this.

There’s a big belief that PS games going to PC will decrease sales of consoles but the reality is that the system is very healthy.

 

[yurinka]

At the cost of killing their platform. That’s why I think it’s short-sighted. Wouldn’t surprise me for a second if dinosaur Nintendo is the only survivor as a platform holder at the end.

Their platform always has been the last one in the race and has been making them losing many billions. They should have killed it time ago. Being full multiplatform will be way more successful, and for the first time in over two decades their game business may end being profitable. And if you want a platform for them, they have Windows.

Sony is the most successful platform holder out of the three. If at the ends remains only one alive will be them. But there's no reason for Nintendo to dissapear. At least until the PC handelds steal the portable market.

 

[Fredrik]

Sony isn't going to do the same as MS in regards to PC releases.

If we could see how dumb it was for MS to do it, Sony certainly knows it's going to kill their brand.

I’d say they’ve already started. This is exactly how Microsoft started last gen, with late PC ports, then they talked about expanding on it, and eventually tried day 1, don’t remember what was the first one, maybe Gears 5(?). Then people were talking about waiting on PC releases instead, so they tried to keep their core fans from jumping to Steam through a midgen upgrade and storefront bonuses.
Idk I see too many similarities.

But I already jumped and the consequences from my own action of retiring both consoles is enough proof for me to say it’s a bad strategy, I used to be a dedicated console gamer and now I’m not.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

My assumption even with the bigger titles hitting PS5 AND switch is that Xbox's yearly console sales will drop 25%. That's a huge drop in my eyes. That'll be around 5.5 million units sold in 2024.

Thats horrible. You honestly think it'll be even worse than that?

Didn't go as far as calculating percentages, but the most logical assumption would be that the decline is going to have a snowball-effect from here on out.

There literally won't be a logical reason for non-hardcore Xbox gamers to own a Xbox over a PS or Nintendo.
Like, none at all.

With Switch 2 and PS5 Pro coming, Xbox will be completely out of the picture, no matter what they'll do.

Even more so since Sony still has major titles coming from their main studios, as well as games like Marathon, Concord and FairGame$.

There's some heavy hitters in the pipeline from Sony, Nintendo will have new games for Switch 2 as well and all major Xbox games will likely come to competing platforms.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I’d say they’ve already started. This is exactly how Microsoft started last gen, with late PC ports, then they talked about expanding on it, and eventually tried day 1, don’t remember what was the first one, maybe Gears 5(?). Then people were talking about waiting on PC releases instead, so they tried to keep their core fans from jumping to Steam through a midgen upgrade and storefront bonuses.
Idk I see too many similarities.

But I already jumped and the consequences from my own action of retiring both consoles is enough proof for me to say it’s a bad strategy, I used to be a dedicated console gamer and now I’m not.

Then you haven't been listening to Sony for the past 4-5 years at all and are just applying MS' logic onto Sony.

 

[yurinka]

It’s really foolish to believe Sony is following Microsoft’s strategy by putting their games on PC.

It makes them earn more revenue and profit while improving their console business, which continues improving as usual. Nothing wrong with it.

There’s a big belief that PS games going to PC will decrease sales of consoles but the reality is that the system is very healthy.

It's increasing them. The PS active userbase is the biggest one any console brand had in gaming history. At least connected online.

 

[mckmas8808]

Didn't go as far as calculating percentages, but the most logical assumption would be that the decline is going to have a snowball-effect from here on out.

There literally won't be a logical reason for non-hardcore Xbox gamers to own a Xbox over a PS or Nintendo.
Like, none at all.

With Switch 2 and PS5 Pro coming, Xbox will be completely out of the picture, no matter what they'll do.

Even more so since Sony still has major titles coming from their main studios, as well as games like Marathon, Concord and FairGame$.

There's some heavy hitters in the pipeline from Sony, Nintendo will have new games for Switch 2 as well and all major Xbox games will likely come to competing platforms.

Yeah, I didn't consider the Switch 2 next year. That and the PS5 Pro could push Xbox to less than 3 million sales in 2025.

And if even one more GAAS game hits for Sony like Helldivers 2 this year or next....... then yeah it's super over for Xbox.

 

[TheDarkPhantom]

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I’d say they’ve already started. This is exactly how Microsoft started last gen, with late PC ports, then they talked about expanding on it, and eventually tried day 1, don’t remember what was the first one, maybe Gears 5(?). Then people were talking about waiting on PC releases instead, so they tried to keep their core fans from jumping to Steam through a midgen upgrade and storefront bonuses.
Idk I see too many similarities.

But I already jumped and the consequences from my own action of retiring both consoles is enough proof for me to say it’s a bad strategy, I used to be a dedicated console gamer and now I’m not.

Sony has never talked about day 1 PC for anything other than GaaS

Sony isn’t new at this point to PC ports either. So clearly it’s not on the menu

You’re an anecdotal case. I know of people that were PC only and are now PS5 only, because the only reason they were PC was due to 60 fps and that’s now pretty much standard on PS5

So it goes both ways

 

[thismeinteil]

Releasing a next-gen Xbox console within the next two years would be a disaster....unless they're going to go a completely different route and hope for the best.

Yea, if they think releasing a console a year or so earlier than the PS6 is going to change things with things like they currently are, they are just stupid. But, seeing how they have run things into the ground after the 360, I can believe it to be their path.

I mean, Sony just has to announce right before MS launches that the more powerful PS6 will be coming out 12-16 months after the NeXbox, and it's dead in the water. Hell, it's practically already there the second they announced ports of their games coming to PS5 and Switch.

 

[John Wick]

Almost 10 to 1

This reminds me of those threads when some PS fans were saying PS5 will sell 3-5 to 1 to Xbox. Yet we had people saying that was impossible due to MS having the most powerful console and in a much better position regarding software. This is much worse.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Worth noting that ps5 hardware is on deep discount for Feb and March so far in UK and Europe but still an amazing performance.

Just for some extra clarification. Sony is running deep discounts. As deep as black Friday in Europe throughout February and March on ps5 slims. 70 to 80 pounds in the UK and even more in euros. Probs worth noting for this and the European performance threads.

Democracy in full effect and Sony have done the genius move to cut prices considerably to aid democracy!

 

[mckmas8808]

Worth noting that ps5 hardware is on deep discount for Feb and March so far in UK and Europe but still an amazing performance.

So is that about $480 or so?

 

[sendit]

No wonder Xbox is going multi platform. Series consoles are dead.

 

[Heisenberg007]

They are at 28 million now. I see them selling 6 million in 2024 (no less than 5 million). Then I see them selling at least 3.5 million in 2025 (mainly due to GTA6). And finally in 2026, they should be able to sell 2 million minimum. So that's borderline 40 million total.

You don't think they can do even that?

I can assure you that they have not sold 28 million.

 

[ProtoByte]

I do have to wonder if the PS5 sales wouldve increased had Helldivers been a PS5 exclusive. Losing 56% of the sales are surely some lost sales. Maybe not the full 56% but for a game that went viral like this, i assume at least 5% of the people interested in the game wouldve purchased a console for it.

The problem is that one of the ways MP games attract hype and attention is by player count hype. You don't get any accurate public measure of that without Steamcharts.

GaaS makes sense for PC releases because PC is a majority multiplayer ecosystem, while PlayStation is not. You will get people that wouldn't have bought a PlayStation for this game before.

That's not the case with SP stuff.

 

[kazuyamishima]

It makes them earn more revenue and profit while improving their console business, which continues improving as usual. Nothing wrong with it.

Yes it will, especially with their GaaS game

Worth noting that ps5 hardware is on deep discount for Feb and March so far in UK and Europe but still an amazing performance.

The discount is so deep that the price it’s only €25 cheaper than launch price.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Worth noting that ps5 hardware is on deep discount for Feb and March so far in UK and Europe but still an amazing performance.

What's the discount price/percentage?

 

[Hudo]

Your guess is as good as mine. But my guess is that without PC the game would not have been the smash hit that it clearly is.

This. Condemning Helldivers 2 to PS5 exclusivity would've only hurt Helldivers 2.