110 seems like it would be quite a disappointment.
Via take two.
Forecast over 50m as of end of 2015.
Forecast 110m as of end of 2019.
PS4 - 23 mil
XB1 - 11 mil
Sounds reasonable.
110m is very low for 2019, how can it be if sales are better than their previous model for both consoles? (and in the case of the PS4, the second best ever)
110 seems like it would be quite a disappointment.
well... It's 2015. Technology has advanced to the point where a game system really isn't the most impressive thing.
I can understand this viewpoint, but given marginal Wii U sales, it would represent a historic collapse of the console market.
Last generation we saw ~270M consoles sold by 6 years in to the generation.
Forecasting 110M suggests a near 60% reduction in the size of the console market.
Forecast over 50m as of end of 2015.
Forecast 110m as of end of 2019.
34m "currently" sounds more plausible
PS4 - 21.5 m
XB1 - 12.5 m
So 60m in 4 years? That would be a huge drop off in console sales.
34m "currently" sounds more plausible
34m "currently" sounds more plausible
PS4 - 21.5 m
XB1 - 12.5 m
People don't buy console for the impressive tech.well... It's 2015. Technology has advanced to the point where a game system really isn't the most impressive thing.
If you have $10k we can buy the report and get the exact break down
Urghh... U guys are so negative. "this Gen is front loaded" ps4 will barely sell over 75million. Software is what changes everything, and this is still very early. I'm not saying ps4 is gonna do 150 mind you, but its like some users are overly negative about everything. Monthly trends doesn't predict the future.
Ah, this makes much more sense. 34 million at the end of March seemed way too high. Right now, I'm guessing the PS4 is at ~22.25 million and XB1 is at ~11.75 million.The term used is "currently". Also they say more than 34 million.
Can a mod please change the title to reflect that it is "as of today".
Why? If they are selling better than before (let's say maybe because this time Nintendo isn't that strong so they have more market share), they may be able to cut the prices before but would prefer to keep a profit -specially considering Sony overal financials and the whole financial story of the Xbox division since it started- so I assume they will want to milk this generation more, trying to make the price cuts later and releasing more generations of games here.I've been saying for ages that sales will be frontloaded and will drop off after 2016.
I can understand this viewpoint, but given marginal Wii U sales, it would represent a historic collapse of the console market.
Last generation we saw ~270M consoles sold by 6 years in to the generation.
Forecasting 110M suggests a near 60% reduction in the size of the console market.
Why? If they are selling better than before (let's say maybe because this time Nintendo isn't that strong so they have more market share), they may be able to cut the prices before but would prefer to keep a profit -specially considering Sony overal financials and the whole financial story of the Xbox division since it started- so I assume they will want to milk this generation more, trying to make the price cuts later and releasing more generations of games here.
Around 2019 they may have released their second generation of big games (first for some of the teams) and I assume that they will prefer to try another one before switching to the next generation, that will bring more players specially with consoles having great pricing.
Yikes, this gen is showing that consoles are probably going away for good. Maybe I'm pessimistic but something inside me says neither gets to 80m and we see new consoles at the 5 year mark. The next go around is probably the last traditional console cycle if not this one.
This gen feels very front-loaded and will slow considerably sooner rather than later.
Every time in every sales thread. smhNah I see it as the Wii being a fluke and all those casuals who never bought much software anyway moved from Wii to mobile gaming.
Sure it still hurts but its not a meaningful loss outside of console sale revenue for Nintendo.
Read further.Ah, this makes much more sense. 34 million at the end of March seemed way too high. Right now, I'm guessing the PS4 is at ~22.25 million and XB1 is at ~11.75 million.
This would likely be as of May 1st and that is when IDG released data to partners.
I assume that the jump to the next generation will be easier for them, using the same PC-like arquitecture that would allow BC with this current gen for both games and engines but AAA games are already too expensive and they would need a huge install base to make them profitable, so I assume the PS5 and the 4th Xbox won't be released too soon.
Huh? ps4 is selling pretty damn fast.
They are gonna exceed 110 million, unless this generation is cut short imo.
PS4 alone will do 90+ million
Nah I see it as the Wii being a fluke and all those casuals who never bought much software anyway moved from Wii to mobile gaming.
Sure it still hurts but its not a meaningful loss outside of console sale revenue for Nintendo.
but not faster than the Wii
Yes, I think that going forward gaming on dedicated hardware will be in the minority to that done on smartphones/tablets/Facebook. It might not be what many here would like to believe, but I can't see any way from a population stand point how $300-$400 hardware and $40-$70 software can possibly compete with $1-$10 games on hardware that most people would own regardless of gaming.Okay, let's say I accept this premise.
Where do you think console growth will come from, then? Or do you think consoles are now permanently relegated to minority status in the gaming industry -- that consoles have no real way to reach new customers?
That would be a huge downgrade not just from last generation, but (perhaps even particularly) the generation before that, when consoles dominated the gaming landscape and seem poised to become the de facto way that people played games.
Yes, I think that going forward gaming on dedicated hardware will be in the minority to that done on smartphones/tablets/Facebook. It might not be what many here would like to believe, but I can't see any way from a population stand point how $300-$400 hardware and $40-$70 software can possibly compete with $1-$10 games on hardware that most people would own regardless of gaming.
It's not that no "new" gamers will come along, but I believe they will be overshadowed by new mobile gamers and previous console owners who exit to play casually on their mobile devices as well.
Listened to the conference call. He references IDG quote of 34 million sold @ 9:08. He doesn't mention anything about it being sold-in or sold-through.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/317...re-ttwo-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast
You can skip to 9:08 seconds
Any other source to back up sold-through claim? Because I'm not seeing/hearing it. transcripts?
I'd imagine we'll have a much better picture during E3 2015.
but not faster than the Wii
Boy, E3 can't come fast enough.
Because sales are being driven mostly by core gamers at the moment.
Also sales aren't increasing like they normally would, they're staying the same.
Sales were great to start off with but as I've been saying for a very long time, they won't continue to grow. People expecting a 200m+ install base are going to be in for a shock.