Who would buy that console? Wii U owners? There's only 3.5 million of them out there right now and they might not be delighted by a short console lifespan. People who didn't buy a Wii U? How would the next console appeal to them if the Wii U doesn't?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
IGN: Exactly How Bad is the Nintendo Situation?
- Thread starter BY2K
- Start date
Who would buy that console? Wii U owners? There's only 3.5 million of them out there right now and they might not be delighted by a short console lifespan. People who didn't buy a Wii U? How would the next console appeal to them if the Wii U doesn't?
toxicgonzo
Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
Sure Nintendo could weather a few system failures, but my wallet cannot!
Very good article. It alludes to the fact that Nintendo has a COMPLETELY different business model than Sony and MS. Which is true.
I feel that sometimes the Monday morning CEOs on GAF and other gaming forums view Nintendo and their business decisions through a Sony/MS prism.
But Nintendo is a completely different company. And thats not a bad thing, its a great thing. We need variety in this industry, and the young gamers that Nintendo introduces to our hobby benefits the industry immensely.
I feel that sometimes the Monday morning CEOs on GAF and other gaming forums view Nintendo and their business decisions through a Sony/MS prism.
But Nintendo is a completely different company. And thats not a bad thing, its a great thing. We need variety in this industry, and the young gamers that Nintendo introduces to our hobby benefits the industry immensely.
Manmademan
Member
This. a new console is going to have to come with a completely new strategy. "more of the same'" isn't going to work, and copying what MS and Sony are doing, just with more power isn't going to work either. By 2016 both console bases will be heavily invested in psn plus and live, and very tough to get them to jump ship when Nintendo has no online userbase or infrastructure to speak of.
GoofsterStud
Member
It has a long way to go to be nearly as good.
As a Wii U owner, it's never fun to hear all the doom & gloom about the console but I'm confident that Nintendo will turn this around. I have no evidence to prove this outside of the fact that no Nintendo home console has ever lasted less than five years on the market. Even when they face other hard times with the N64 and GCN, Nintendo always found a way to persevere. A strong collection of first party titles will be enough to justify my purchase seeing as I don't get to play games as much as I used too but I'm hoping that we can get some sweet third party titles as well. These are trying times for Nintendo fans but we've seen this "end of the world" scenario unfold before and yet here they still chugging along, black smoke and all.
it baffles me that some people can't even fathom a scenario wherein nintendo properly promotes the wii u this holiday season with desirable games actually available for the system, and it rights its ship. sure, it'll likely end up being in third place this generation but i strongly suspect it'll earn its keep.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
I hate it when people talk about Nintendo's giant cash stockpile. Just because a company has money like that doesn't mean they need to throw it away on unprofitable business decisions. Oh, sure, they could have many failed consoles! But someday that money will dry up.
And to me the question isn't about the WiiU. It's about what comes next. Is Nintendo going to compete on Sony and Microsoft's turf? Are they going to keep relying on differentiating themselves through gimmicks and hope for a Wii-like success every few consoles? I mean, what is the long term goal here, they can't keep making WiiUs and Gamecubes. They need higher marketshare, and they need third party support to keep their console model profitable. What's going to get them there?
This was probably the best thread I've seen on the subject, but that's certainly not the direction Nintendo is going to want to go, and there's no telling whether or not it would work anyway.
And to me the question isn't about the WiiU. It's about what comes next. Is Nintendo going to compete on Sony and Microsoft's turf? Are they going to keep relying on differentiating themselves through gimmicks and hope for a Wii-like success every few consoles? I mean, what is the long term goal here, they can't keep making WiiUs and Gamecubes. They need higher marketshare, and they need third party support to keep their console model profitable. What's going to get them there?
This was probably the best thread I've seen on the subject, but that's certainly not the direction Nintendo is going to want to go, and there's no telling whether or not it would work anyway.
The Wii U situation is pretty much unsalvageable. Maybe I'll be wrong later, but so far the casual market is no longer interested in a tablet gimmick, and the console gamers would rather use the more powerful Xbone or PS4. I personally think they should just ride off the 3DS, the Wii U doesn't seem to be worth it.
But who knows, I could be wrong. They could redesign the box itself rather than the Wii with rounded edges that they went for. They could also make an actual attempt to market it, and their games. Or they can completely forget about it and leave it to die. Then they can wait for the next generation and learn from the mistakes they made so far.
But who knows, I could be wrong. They could redesign the box itself rather than the Wii with rounded edges that they went for. They could also make an actual attempt to market it, and their games. Or they can completely forget about it and leave it to die. Then they can wait for the next generation and learn from the mistakes they made so far.
Sonic: Lost Worlds(both Wii U and 3ds versions) are being published by Sega. I'm sure there's been some money exchanged between Nintendo and Sega, but I don't think this game is being directly funded by Nintendo.
And this article and thread is about Nintendo's financial health as a whole, so just focusing on Wii U and say that they don't have 3rd party exclusives misses the point that Nintendo's can and has gotten 3rd party exclusives on their systems. It's just obviously a lot harder to convince on the Wii U.
I don't think you have anything to worry about. There has never been a Nintendo console that wasn't worth it in the end. MAYBE the N64, but Goldeneye, OoT and Mario 64 were so huge, that it kind of makes up for it.
Manmademan
Member
promoting the wiiu this season is just short of impossible.
Microsoft alone is rolling out a billion dollar ad campaign. Sony likely isn't pulling any punches either.
even without that, retailers and enthusiast mags, and even the MSM to a degree will be promoting those two consoles heavily. they're the next big thing. wiiu is last years news that isn't selling, and is struggling
for shelf space, let alone recognition.
this is a horrible situation to be in. any games released for wiiu are being sent to die.
Even the Virtual Boy was worth it just to get the Keith Apicary video. =P
What's wrong with the n64? It ended a lot better than Wii with a lot better games.
The droughts were terrible. Just like with the Wii and now the Wii U.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
I've never seen the third party situation this bad on a Nintendo console before. Going forward, unless they can turn the U around somewhat I can't see their next console faring any better.
Goldenmoney
Member
Interesting article. It won't stop naysayers from proclaiming doom though. I say we should wait until 2014 before we say the Wii U is a failure. Nintendo turned the 3DS around with great games and a price drop. We know there are great games coming for Wii U and don't be surprised by a price drop this holiday season.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
They have the cash to ride out this storm for sure, but what does the Wii U doing this badly (unless it makes a huge comeback, which looks extremely unlikely right now) mean for the future of Nintendo home consoles? Will anyone at all be interested in what they have to offer next if the Wii U completely bombs? Will third parties ever want to bet on a Nintendo console again? What will happen to the Nintendo brand in general?
I think there's a larger issue here than just "can they survive it financially?".
I think there's a larger issue here than just "can they survive it financially?".
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Can someone tell me why they think the WiiU is completely doomed? Sure, it's doing very poorly now, but that's mostly the fault of horrible marketing & labeling, and a chasis design that make people confuse Wii U as an accessory. I don't expect Wii U to do anything more than dead last this generation, but I could see a 30-50 million lifelong sales, once they start pumping out the titles. Don't people think that the next Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, and Zelda will move consoles? (Mario Kart most definitely so)
I mean look at the 3DS. Sure, it's start wasn't nearly as bad as the Wii U's but it's also very underpowered compared to the Vita. That doesn't stop the 3DS from dominating the market. It will all come down to a steady flow of games, and if Nintendo gets their act together, they have that in spades.
I mean look at the 3DS. Sure, it's start wasn't nearly as bad as the Wii U's but it's also very underpowered compared to the Vita. That doesn't stop the 3DS from dominating the market. It will all come down to a steady flow of games, and if Nintendo gets their act together, they have that in spades.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
Personal preference. I much prefer the Wii library to the N64 library.
You're about to be dogpiled
There are people who disagree with that? What do they think turned the 3DS around? Magic and miracles?
Bingo. I don't have an answer, and if I did I'd probably be making a lot more money than I do now.
NeonZ
Member
1-Just having those games isn't enough. Look at the GameCube.
2-Even for the Wii U itself, look at 3d Mario. Many expected that it could be a showcase game for the console, but the route Nintendo took with it doesn't seem satisfying - and basing it on historical precedence of sales seems to forget the whole "new product similar to old product" factor that hurt something like NSMBU. Other games, like the unrevealed Zelda, easily could turn out to be just as disappointing.
3-None of those games you mention there are aiming for 2013, only 2014. Currently, the Wii U is tracking bellow the GameCube. If it only goes anywhere by 2014, even GC numbers seem like they'd be a dream.
A lot of problems here:
1. Do you understand the the Wii U is selling worse than any modern console? It's unlikely to sell even as well as the Gamecube. 30-50M is laughable. 20M might not be reachable.
2. Gamecube got the Marios, Zeldas, Smash Bros as well. It didn't really matter.
3. Gamecube was cheap! I bought it for $99. The Wii U, because of the gamepad, is unlikely to get to that price any time soon. (Besides the occasional clearance fire sale).
4. The Vita sells like shit, so saying the 3DS is dominating handheld sales doesn't mean much. It's a bigger piece of a much smaller pie. And that after a crazy price cut.
I'm not sure if this is really true. With all due respect to the author, a company can become insolvent really, really fast if cost of sales are high. People underestimate what this company spends in a month, especially since Nintendo has been growing and hiring explosively for the past few years due to the succes of the Wii.
If there is no money coming in, the "endless" pile of money will be gone really fast. Even with 5 billion in cash.
If there is no money coming in, the "endless" pile of money will be gone really fast. Even with 5 billion in cash.
Nikodemos
Member
The U is in a rather different situation than the 3DS. In the latter's case, all Ninty had to do was drop the BS regarding "goggleless 3D!" as a marketable point and cut its price to what people were willing to spend on what's basically the Super DS. Competition in the handheld market is slim: Angry Birds does not a Pokemon competitor make, and Sony bungled the Vita. That is not to say Ninty didn't botch the 3DS. They did, since it completely failed to catch on via its original sales pitch. Through hard work and properly spent money, they have managed to right that ship.
Things are quite a bit worse for the U. It has heavy competition with lots of funds at their disposal, the pitch failed (for a second time, making it 1 out of 3 for successful 'hooks'), they're losing money on the hardware (an unfortunate first for Ninty), retailers are rebelling (right now it's just supermarkets, which are notoriously brutal with unmoving merchandise, but it can always get worse) and prospects aren't stellar (great 1st/2nd party games didn't carry the GC forward and it looks like a return to that era).
MaschinenZimmer
Banned
The bigger question is how much does a launch of a new console costs? Everything with R&D, developing new games, marketing etc.
I remember Patcher saying something about at least a billion dollars. Add to the costs the fact that Nintendo must support the console at least for a few years to not loose consumer trust and those 5 billions might be gone faster than you guys want to imagining.
Wii U won't kill Nintendo but the next console might.
I remember Patcher saying something about at least a billion dollars. Add to the costs the fact that Nintendo must support the console at least for a few years to not loose consumer trust and those 5 billions might be gone faster than you guys want to imagining.
Wii U won't kill Nintendo but the next console might.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
I'd like to say that personally, "Nintendo as a third party" (or the watered down handheld only) company is synonymous with "Nintendo is doomed." Sure, if Nintendo went third party, the company itself might exist, but the Nintendo that is able to make the type of games I like to play would not.
So yes, you may not see a lot of actual "Nintendo is doomed" posts in threads, but you certainly see a bunch of the third party talk.
So yes, you may not see a lot of actual "Nintendo is doomed" posts in threads, but you certainly see a bunch of the third party talk.
Goldenmoney
Member
You're about to be dogpiled
I don't see why not. I'm not saying the Wii U will sell as well as the 3DS but it can definitely improve. Can't get much worse anyway lol.
Present Nintendo views the gaming market differently than Sony/Microsoft. To Nintendo, everyone is a potential gamer. To Sony/Microsoft, gamers are mainly 10 - 34 year old males. Sony/Microsoft see males with disposable income as driving their market. Nintendo views mothers as the primary purchasing agents driving their sales (a very Japanese view?).
Nintendo sees danger in catering too closely to the tastes of the 10 - 34 male demographic because they fear alienating everyone else, especially mothers and woman more generally. After taking a beating in the home console space during the Gamecube era, Nintendo's view of the market was seemingly validated with the Wii. I don't think there has ever been a console with as broad of an appeal as the Wii.
Unfortunately for Nintendo, the increasing ubiquity of devices capable of outputting relatively complex graphics has dramatically increased Nintendo's competition in this space. I also get the feeling Nintendo themselves was running out of ideas as to what to do with motion controls. As a result, the expanded audience that came with the Wii has left Nintendo.
The defection of the expanded audience leaves Nintendo with a difficult choice. Do they try to recapture this audience with a different "gimmick" than the failed WiiU touchscreen? Do they go back to motion controls even though their competitors have copied them and they might be running out of ideas? Do they consign themselves to the under 10 family demographic, which history indicates tops out at around Gamecube levels in terms of sales and is increasingly being served by the same iOS/Android games that grabbed the expanded audience? Do they move back into more direct competition with Sony/MS even though that too is a difficult market and they haven't been fully committed to that "game" for more than a decade?
They aren't in any immediate danger, but they do face difficult choices.
Nintendo sees danger in catering too closely to the tastes of the 10 - 34 male demographic because they fear alienating everyone else, especially mothers and woman more generally. After taking a beating in the home console space during the Gamecube era, Nintendo's view of the market was seemingly validated with the Wii. I don't think there has ever been a console with as broad of an appeal as the Wii.
Unfortunately for Nintendo, the increasing ubiquity of devices capable of outputting relatively complex graphics has dramatically increased Nintendo's competition in this space. I also get the feeling Nintendo themselves was running out of ideas as to what to do with motion controls. As a result, the expanded audience that came with the Wii has left Nintendo.
The defection of the expanded audience leaves Nintendo with a difficult choice. Do they try to recapture this audience with a different "gimmick" than the failed WiiU touchscreen? Do they go back to motion controls even though their competitors have copied them and they might be running out of ideas? Do they consign themselves to the under 10 family demographic, which history indicates tops out at around Gamecube levels in terms of sales and is increasingly being served by the same iOS/Android games that grabbed the expanded audience? Do they move back into more direct competition with Sony/MS even though that too is a difficult market and they haven't been fully committed to that "game" for more than a decade?
They aren't in any immediate danger, but they do face difficult choices.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Oops, your comments have inspired me to actually look up Gamecube figures. I don't know how I got to the conclusion it sold 30-50 million lifetime sales. It barely clearled 20 million. Ouch. Sorry for the slip up. Ok, so let me revise that statement. I think the Wii U will manage 20 million by the end of it's lifestyle, on par with the Gamecube. And now even with that revision, that sounds mighty less impressive =/
I still think that Nintendo won't have a problem weathering this failure, and I stand by my opinion that most of the Wii U's problems stem from terrible marketing and planning. I would hope this misstep would bring them back to reality after their critical success with the original Wii.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Thank you.
The WiiU is virtually dead, that does not mean Nintendo is dead. I think some Nintendo fanboys are being disingenuous by dismissing "WiiU is doomed" news for "Nintendo is doomed" news.
Nintendo had the cash to enter the 21st century of console development by expanding their staff, acquiring some small studios, and actually getting ready for HD development. Instead they took a half measure and got caught with their pants down.
Manmademan
Member
it's in a much worse situation.
someone already mentioned Nintendo is losing money on the wiiu. that wasn't the case with the 3ds.there was a healthy margin that allowed for a drop. Nintendo can't go much further without losing TONS of money.
Third parties are pissed and canceling projects. this didn't happen to the 3ds.
the wiiu has two competitors launching with tons of hype and vastly better specs shortly, one of which is only 50 dollars more.
the ps3 and 360 also aren't going anywhere, and can offer the same third party games for far less money with vastly superior online integration.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Rollo Lawson
Banned
I'm just waiting for them to make something completely new...as they do ever so often...very well.
\
I agree it wasn't that click-bait crap we see every time there is a Nintendo is doomed article.
I think the best games on the N64 were probably better than the best games on the Wii. But that is not saying anything controversial. n64 has 4-5 revolutionary, all-time classic games that still shape development to this day.
However, the Wii had a much better library in the end if you are going by the amount of quality titles.
Wait wait...
So IGN is telling me Nintendo is sitting like Scrooge McDuck and all they can give us is the bare minimum decent line-up their offering on Wii U now for Fall 13 to 2014?
Nintendo is LOAFING. If I was head of the company, I would have been throwing GAMES at the thing since R&D!!
So IGN is telling me Nintendo is sitting like Scrooge McDuck and all they can give us is the bare minimum decent line-up their offering on Wii U now for Fall 13 to 2014?
Nintendo is LOAFING. If I was head of the company, I would have been throwing GAMES at the thing since R&D!!
Manmademan
Member
Nintendo didn't really invest in new studios when they should have. they were banking on the tablet to bring in the casual audience, not exclusive games.
Nintendo also avoided HD game development last gen when everyone else went through growing pains.
right now they're learning HD game development at the last possible minute and don't have the expertise to crank out games as fast as everyone else.
They are probably still in a better position than they were during the Gamecube days. The Wii was more than they could have ever hoped for. Three or four generations worth of success rolled into one. However that doesn't mean that it would be acceptable to have multiple generations of failures. The Wii U is what it is, have to work to make it better. It at least needs to last about 4 to 5 years.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
I think the problem is they just rushed the Wii U out before they were ready. They didn't want to launch with the PS4/X1 as their lesser specs/graphics would have gotten them killed (and if they wanted to match specs they'd be high price or eating a big loss per unit due to the cost of teh game pad).
So rushed launch, plus all the articles about how they've struggled with HD game development since this is their first HD console, equals a drought of games the first couple of years that has a big hole for them to dig out of. Which will be tough to do with the Wii U. They just have to do their best and try to do better with it's successor and keep making money with the 3DS to help weather the storm with minimal damage to their cash reserves.
Bill Rizer
Member
Well, this is what Nintendo should answer themselves just now, if they want to survive. More so if, like it should, they're already in r&d for next hardware.
They asked this themselves when Gamecube failed, and answer was the Wii, which proved a great success. I'm not sure which direction should they take now, but I think everyone can agree that WiiU definitely ended the gimmick era of consoles.
All the doomsayer arguments are efficiently compacted into this post, so I will respond with my opinions:
1. I do agree that there is less flexibility for a price drop
2. From a business perspective, third-party support is the least of concerns for Nintendo, even though it is given primary importance by a lot of people on GAF. Nintendo software sells Nintendo hardware. With the exception of Tetris, this has always been the case.
3. A lot of 3rd parties cancelled projects on the 3DS. Remember the Mega Man meltdowns?
4. the wiiu is $100 cheaper than the PS4. And has free online. It is only $50 cheaper if you get the model with the pack-in game and host of other goodies.
I do agree that the situation is worse with the WiiU, primarily because of your comment that Nintendo doesn't have the same price flexibility with the WiiU, plus Nintendo doesn't have the built-in mindshare in the home console space compared to handled (dat Pokemon)
HOWEVER, people are writing the WiiU off very prematurely. Nintendo just released its 3rd game for this thing.
Its 5 billion in pure cash, and 5 billion in short-term securities (which is essentially cash)
I'm actually very interested in how Microsoft will proceed in the business.They are also invested in the casual market. You see Minecraft at the top of sales charts, and I think it was an incredibly smart decision for Microsoft to get Minecraft as an exclusive for their console. It's this interplay between the PC and console market that Microsoft has that I wonder if Nintendo can get in on. Perhaps they hope to do the same by partnering up with indie devs and someday having indie exclusives that are hits both on smart devices and then people will want to get the further experience on the console. (I'm hoping for a Nintendo platformer creator
We're at the point where all the consoles have gigabytes of storage space, so the "creation" games that were hits on the PC, like The Sims and Sim City, can finally be brought to consoles in a bigger way. I know my WIi U wouldn't collect dust if it had one of these endless creation games on it)The casual gamers are using other devices to play their games, but it seems that if a game becomes a favorite on one of those other devices, they are willing to complement the game with the console version. Sony and Microsoft both are about to do this with the bevy of apps that affect their console games, and I think Nintendo needs to find a way to incorporate the internet and their games in a similar manner. Miiverse's creation is a step in the right direction. I mean, Microsoft even made games for the DS, so I think it would be fair for Nintendo to incorporate PCs/ the Internet into their games in bigger ways, or to supplement their games. The casual market may have moved onto their smart devices, so Nintendo needs to get them back somehow. In other words, get them addicted to a smartphone/Internet game and remind them that the "complete experience" can only be had by getting the console game.
megabytecr
Member
A new console always has a tough time because
- Game lineups will never be the same as old consoles, obvious one sure. But this plus Nintendo having trouble with HD, plus the 3rd party issues make it worse on Wii U. Nintendo in the future has to have strong launches and at least 6 months of constant releases.
- back on 3rd party: most versions look superior but then something else happens, like no DLC, lack of MP, etc. This turns people off and thus 3rd party games do pretty bad. The console needs optimizations and some 3rd parties find this not worth it (not you NFSMWU). This relates to a bad launch and 3rd parties don't want to drop the cash and effort in making Wii U appealing, they believe this is on Nintendo
- Price: this time Nintendo added the gamepad and thus increasing the starting price, and thus being over the mass market price of 200-250 though not that far. I like the gamepad and what it offers, but this will make for a tough start, but I predict a brighter future.
- MS and Sony have full 3rd party support and it would be interesting if those consoles don't sell constantly after Christmas
- The Wii U indie strategy will pay off on 2014-2015, and I predict this time the indie games will reach the former B-tier games. They will be a nice complement to the first party Nintendo games.
- Game lineups will never be the same as old consoles, obvious one sure. But this plus Nintendo having trouble with HD, plus the 3rd party issues make it worse on Wii U. Nintendo in the future has to have strong launches and at least 6 months of constant releases.
- back on 3rd party: most versions look superior but then something else happens, like no DLC, lack of MP, etc. This turns people off and thus 3rd party games do pretty bad. The console needs optimizations and some 3rd parties find this not worth it (not you NFSMWU). This relates to a bad launch and 3rd parties don't want to drop the cash and effort in making Wii U appealing, they believe this is on Nintendo
- Price: this time Nintendo added the gamepad and thus increasing the starting price, and thus being over the mass market price of 200-250 though not that far. I like the gamepad and what it offers, but this will make for a tough start, but I predict a brighter future.
- MS and Sony have full 3rd party support and it would be interesting if those consoles don't sell constantly after Christmas
- The Wii U indie strategy will pay off on 2014-2015, and I predict this time the indie games will reach the former B-tier games. They will be a nice complement to the first party Nintendo games.
This got my attention. Let's suppose Mega Man Legends 3 was cancelled out of and underwhelming sales performance instead of Capcom dropping the Mega Man Brand entirely and Inafune quiting the company.
WiiU's failture made publishers lose the confidence on the platform and lost Rayman Legends, Deus Ex special port, Ninja Gaiden Razors Edge for that reason. Wich 3DS games were cancelled or went multiplatform during the console's first year of sales due to 3DS not being able to perform decently?
Also 3DS still gets exclusive third party games like Bravely Defeault, Ace Attorney 5 or Shin Megami Tensei IV. Wich exclusive WiiU games were not published by Nintendo during this year? I can only remember ZombiU and that's not even 100% true since it got a special pack with the hardware.
Similar threads
- Poll