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IGN: The Last Guardian cancelled, mayhaps; Sony: Nope - Stage XI: Mole Hunt

Who should be banned from NeoGAF?


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StuBurns

Banned
Really? I'm going to have to act like an industry expert before you take it seriously?

Think of how much budgets skyrocketed with the last gen of consoles(PS3, Xbox 360, etc.), which sunk some companies while others moved on to PSN/XBLA, iOS and handheld platforms. Put 8 years of that much money being spent with nothing to show for it. And assuming(a big assumption btw) that they end up moving that to the PS4, that's just even larger sums of money being thrown at a project that's been in development for 8 years, where they already fired the head of the team, for a series that isn't that much of a seller, and to boot not much has been shown of the game.

It's absolutely terrible when you look at it business wise. It could sell 1 mil, maybe 2 if you're being extremely generous. It's best at this point to cut your losses and move on. Team Ico doesn't look good at all, to any company with that track record over the past decade. I imagine if Sony goes ahead and does release it, it would be to make what little money they can out of it, which won't be much.
An industry expert, or really just about anyone with a vague understanding of how Team ICO has functioned, would know that not only are they an extremely small team, many of them have been on other projects for some of that time.

Game budgets are primarily based on the burn-rate of the team, the team is small, and has gotten smaller in recent years in fact, it's wholly possible the game is still under $35m, which is only a million units for a first party, once you remove the profit from the Ico/SotC Collection, they're probably nearing the black before they sell a unit.
 

Filaipus

Banned
I think this was purposefully leaked bad information. Months ago someone (on a podcast maybe) claimed IGN had multiple sources within Sony. The tone of the conversation essentially implied: "Hey- we know what's happening within the company, we are IGN, deal with it."

Can you imagine listening to that and you are Shu Yoshida? Can you imagine the anger people slaving away on PS4 titles felt? Can you imagine a scenario where that would make any executive within Sony happy at all?

IGN was essentially asking for trouble the moment they said that.

Some of you might think this is a giant misunderstanding, but I don't know if you know this, for the last few years- several people I've spoken to have revealed some pretty big surprises at Sony press events before hand. The more public issues happen-

A- When you have websites like PlayStation Lifestyle leaking the Last Guardian footage months before a press conference,
B- When you have Reddit posting Webm's of what could possibly be one the biggest "OH shit" moments of an E3 press event,
C- And when you have GAF members / mods / and various people on the internet announcing Sony plans ahead of time-

You need a concerted effort to send out your Ninjas.


If CBOAT was played like a fiddle by NTKRNL, IGN just stepped onto a grenade.


Fake Edit:

Shawn Layden is now in the driver seat at SCEA. Everything has been radio silent since he's taken stage. Perhaps, he's doing what Jack couldn't do - finding the rat.

This could be a possibility... But then again, no.
 
I think they needed to debunk it. The story got completely out of control and very well could have dampened, if not completely overshadowed the presser up until it got shown (if it did).

I don't think it could've done much harm in that short period of time.
Also, TLG would've been an epic opening for their conference :D
Sony Conference said:
Hello, my name is Shawn Layden, I'm the new guy in charge. I don't know if you remember but we've annouced a little game some 5 years ago - The Last Guardian. We have news on that one, take a look: *trailer*
 

Issun23

Member
Really? I'm going to have to act like an industry expert before you take it seriously?

Think of how much budgets skyrocketed with the last gen of consoles(PS3, Xbox 360, etc.), which sunk some companies while others moved on to PSN/XBLA, iOS and handheld platforms. Put 8 years of that much money being spent with nothing to show for it. And assuming(a big assumption btw) that they end up moving that to the PS4, that's just even larger sums of money being thrown at a project that's been in development for 8 years, where they already fired the head of the team, for a series that isn't that much of a seller, and to boot not much has been shown of the game.

It's absolutely terrible when you look at it business wise. It could sell 1 mil, maybe 2 if you're being extremely generous. It's best at this point to cut your losses and move on. Team Ico doesn't look good at all, to any company with that track record over the past decade. I imagine if Sony goes ahead and does release it, it would be to make what little money they can out of it, which won't be much.

You've got to realize that at Japan Studio only a very small core group of people are completely dedicated to any one game. The rest are all shifted around different projects, depending on the overall necessities.

For The Last Guardian that dedicated group is made of 5 to 10 people at most. Everyone else in the meantime has worked on various other projects for PS3 and PS4. Developers clock in and are assigned to the projects which need most manpower at the time.
 
The final 'best time to release' with PS4 launch IMO.

It should have been cancelled maybe 5-6 years ago or released at PS4 launch. They will never make back all the time and money on development. They really should just let it go.

You act like you know what your talking about, with all this "best time to release", development cost and even future sales talk when in reality you know nothing.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Wherever the source came from, the fact of the matter is now TLG and the hype surrounding it, is fully in the limelight. Does anyone else find it timely with E3 tomorrow...in theaters nationwide?
 
I just realized the parallels between those IGN podcasts and Fox News panels. Just replace MS with the Republican party. Ryan is Sean Hannity, it makes so much sense that it ceases to be funny.
 
Trying to figure out how much money has been sunk onto the game is not easy though.

Something like Bioshock Infinite is easy because we know an entire team of 200+ people has been working on one, and only one game for the 6 years.

But Japan Studio is a company of 400+, and the last we heard of Team Ico, it was a team of around 30+ who made SotC. The natural assumption is that a new console gen would mean a larger team, but we know Ueda is a perfectionist who is very particular about his core team.

And then we also know that resources in Japan Studio are pretty flexible, as they shift around projects when needed. During its period of development and technical hell, how many people were at that project instead of the full team? 10 people? 20?

Look at TLoU for example. That game was in development for 4 years, but the first 2 years of the game would naturally cost much, much less than the last 2 years of the game because the first two years had around 50 people working on the game, whereas the last 2 years had close to 150.
 

sora87

Member
People called me mad for expecting Kingdom Hearts 3 last year.. I feel history will repeat itself and The Last Guardian will be there tomorrow.
 

Otnopolit

Member
The final 'best time to release' with PS4 launch IMO.

It should have been cancelled maybe 5-6 years ago or released at PS4 launch. They will never make back all the time and money on development. They really should just let it go.

Don't be silly! PS5 launch would also be a "best time" to release it ;) They can punt this game down the field for decades!

The sad part to me? This game would've been great four years ago without all the ridiculous hype and mystery. Now it's simply living to die in my eyes. No matter how good it is (or isn't), it just won't satisfy those who have spent almost a decade waiting for it.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Adam Boyes ‏@amboyes 1m
It's been entertaining watching the lists get created, the guesstimations and rumors, and tomorrow all will be clear. One day left !
Just posted.

edit: beaten
 

Killthee

helped a brotha out on multiple separate occasions!
GJBjs8Q.png
 

Amir0x

Banned

Seriously they must be dying with laughter right now. Now when they reveal it, the explosion of energy is going to be even more insane than it otherwise would have been. They're going to be one of the most talked about at E3 by default now lol
 

hwateber

Member
Sony should pull a beyonce with the last guardian.

I don't mean stand around and do nothing while your man gets assaulted. I mean release it stealthily.
Thanks for putting the image in my head of a boy being assaulted and the beast just sitting in the corner watching
 
i think the reason its not cancelled is just the legacy it has.

look what sony did with the unaccounced ssm project. supposedly was giong to be shown at e3 was pretty far along with a big team with stig at the helm. And snip gone. 3-4 year dev cycle on a ps4 focussed game removed just like that.

the problem with this is they showed it and the hype/legacy of this game has just become way too big now. Especially with them constantly insisting its still in development. Would be massive about face and lots of egg pelting infoved if they cancelled it now.

Wheter it lives up tto expectations. Thats a whole other issues.

There's legacy, and then there's business. Higher ups don't give a damn about somethings legacy unless whatever series or franchise it's a part of was a huge seller(Mario, Zelda, Halo, God Of War, etc.).

I understand them keeping it around from when it could have came out and could have made money. But it's been far too long now. And with a new console that just came out and needs games, I magine of The Last Guardian is still not ready for release it will be shitcanned. As it should be.

An industry expert, or really just about anyone with a vague understanding of how Team ICO has functioned, would know that not only are they an extremely small team, many of them have been on other projects for some of that time.

Game budgets are primarily based on the burn-rate of the team, the team is small, and has gotten smaller in recent years in fact, it's wholly possible the game is still under $35m, which is only a million units for a first party, once you remove the profit from the Ico/SotC Collection, they're probably nearing the black before they sell a unit.

A small team making a next gen(for the time) game would be one of the reasons why it's taking so long. I don't imagine that it's only been that team to work on it if so. And you can't act like that money hasn't been wasted on it.

If so? Then Sony fucked up big time, as it's as much their fault as Team ICO's. There's no excuse at all for why it hasn't been out a while ago. That means it's one of the most awfully handled game developments out there. And while what you say could ring true of the budget not being too high. You're forgetting that presumably it still isn't ready it needs more time to upgrade to PS4 development, and if, a big if at that, it even comes out the marketing, distribution, etc. would cost a lot just to try to squeeze money out of the thing.

Again, Sony should just cut their losses and move on.
 

I-hate-u

Member
Wherever the source came from, the fact of the matter is now TLG and the hype surrounding it, is fully in the limelight. Does anyone else find it timely with E3 tomorrow...in theaters nationwide?

I think the theater "experience" this year has something to do with PS 20th and ND 30th anniversary. Stuff like Ratchet and Clank movie announcement, PABR2
and Crash Bandicoot.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Seriously they must be dying with laughter right now. Now when they reveal it, the explosion of energy is going to be even more insane than it otherwise would have been. They're going to be one of the most talked about at E3 by default now lol

This made me literally LOL. Thanks. :p
 

Fletcher

Member
If it is going to be shown at all this coming week why would Sony say anything? It would be an even bigger surprise and probably create more of a positive news story if people assumed it was dead and then reveal it isn't. I dunno.
 

FoneBone

Member
Not that IGN wasn't moronic here, but how are people jumping to the conclusion that Sony's denial means TLG will show up at their E3 conference tomorrow? Seems like wishful thinking.
 

Kinyou

Member
Wherever the source came from, the fact of the matter is now TLG and the hype surrounding it, is fully in the limelight. Does anyone else find it timely with E3 tomorrow...in theaters nationwide?
But how much hype does this really generate? It just showed that people still want the damn game. I imagine people would go crazy if tlg shows up tomorrow, no matter if there was some ign story or not
 
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