jm89
Member
Last edited:
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
In the US, PS5 is now trending 5% above PS4 and 87% ahead of PS3, while Xbox Series trails Xbox One by 10% yet leads Xbox 360 by 6%
- Thread starter jm89
- Start date
OmegaSupreme
advanced basic bitch
He should try prayer next.
Pelta88
Member
At least you tried.
Influencers.
MasterCornholio
Member
Force the narrative into existence.
It is bizarre. If they author stuck with the current evidence he can see why there's some issues with his theories. At least that's what I expect a journalist to do.
Woopah
Member
Lack on releases and third party support really killed the Wii in Japan.
Japan and emerging markets have been much bigger sources for growth (and Europe somewhat) for Nintendo over the Wii than North America has.
If you are using launch-aligned then it doesn't matter that Switch launched in 2017 as you are looking at the first 2.5 years for each platform.
The only thing that makes it tricky is the different number of holiday seasons.
Simply put, Switch and PS have much much stronger exclusive content.
Solidus_T
Member
He's probably more concerned with the payout he's getting for these obviously astroturfed articles.
Thick Thighs Save Lives
Gold Member
They got the US HW numbers from Circa(NPD) most likely. I'm not 100% sure though.
Last edited:
Damian black
Member
Xbox one and series are incredibly frontloaded. 360 was more slow and steady until it started doing quite good, especially with kinect.
Ps3 was the same. Started very slow and then around 2009 they put the turbo.
Ps3 was the same. Started very slow and then around 2009 they put the turbo.
TheGodfather07
Member
They won't. When a system starts declining, it only keeps going down. They might have a month here and there where they up yoy, but they will keep declining overall. Remember that xbox has been down yoy since like November last year. That's like 9 months of decline. Its not a short temporary thing.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
That's a major shame for them. It's a great console and it definitely deserves better than the one.
Not sure what they can do if great games can't turn it around. Guess Phil was right.... :/
Last edited:
Right, so using that graph in that post didn't tell the complete story.
TheGodfather07
Member
I agree. Series X is amazing hardware. Problem is Microsoft have been extremely poor for such a long time now. Its gonna take Just as long to change things again. They will need to deliver quality games year after year consistently to build the brand back up. Great software is all that really matters.
Last edited:
Woopah
Member
Ah yes, I understand what you're saying now.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Yup. They've had plenty of words but only games will talk now.
Woopah
Member
Some great data from Astral_lion02 on Installbase
USA LTD (July 2023) :
NSW - 41,80M (I estimate WII LTD at 41,80M)
PS5 - 14,86M
XBS - 11,16M
USA YTD (July 2023) :
PS5 - 2,96M (+73% YoY)
NSW - 2,39M (-2% YoY)
XBS - 1,46M (-26% YoY)
USA LTD (July 2016) :
PS4 - 14,15M
XB1 - 12,40M
USA YTD (July 2016) :
PS4 - 1,74M
XB1 - 1,28M
PS5 sales are very strong this year, but Switch is still very competitive for a console in its 7th year.
USA LTD (July 2023) :
NSW - 41,80M (I estimate WII LTD at 41,80M)
PS5 - 14,86M
XBS - 11,16M
USA YTD (July 2023) :
PS5 - 2,96M (+73% YoY)
NSW - 2,39M (-2% YoY)
XBS - 1,46M (-26% YoY)
USA LTD (July 2016) :
PS4 - 14,15M
XB1 - 12,40M
USA YTD (July 2016) :
PS4 - 1,74M
XB1 - 1,28M
PS5 sales are very strong this year, but Switch is still very competitive for a console in its 7th year.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Oh I don’t know if it’s just going to be 10%, have a feeling Xbox is tracking lower than that rest of the world.
On top of that attach ratio is in decline on Xbox.
They really have to turn things around quick and hope Sony doesn’t hit flush with a single one of their GAAs games.
MasterCornholio
Member
Maybe Phil is wrong. Not in the short term but the long term. If they have years of having great games than things can change. They have to be consistent with quality releases though and it will take some time for them to sell on the same level as the competition.
systemr123
Member
If the 360 was a monster, the series X would eat it for breakfast. Since that’s the whole MS slogan for the X. Cannibalism doesn’t end well I guess.
Last edited:
Mibu no ookami
Member
- There are no "Starfield" level hype games on Microsoft's agenda for next year.
- Starfield isn't going to create "momentum" nor will it "carry into" next year.
- Let's say Starfield sold 20 million copies over the next 18 months. At least 65% of that is going to be on PC. That's 13 million. Leaving 7 million on XS. Let's imagine that these are ALL new sales and no existing owners buy this game. An additional 7 million units over 18 months is 380K units per month. Does that sound like moving the need to you?
- Now let's go back to what you said, a banger every quarter.
- The XS released in November 2020
- That means that the XS has been out for 3 years in November
- How many bangers does it have in 3 years? But now it is going to come out with 4 bangers per year?
- What are these bangers and how much are they going to sell?
- Are these bangers going to be system sellers or games that people will just play on GamePass on either XS or PC?
- Was HiFi Rush a banger? Did it move the needle?
- XS sales are drying up YOY and with reduced mindshare that is likely to continue even despite improved efforts
- At year 3 we should be seeing numbers peaking but XS is already in serious decline
- Historically we know that decline is likely to continue if not get considerably worse
- Xbox Series S sales are likely to dry up more and more as the generation progresses
- Sony is going to release a PS5 Pro next year which will have an impact on XS sales even more, especially around the release of titles such as GTA6
- If his hardware is unopposed, Sony is going to devour the higher-end console market
Hudo
Member
Sure. I am only voicing my personal opinion, which I realize is a minority one according to how well it sells and how much money Sony make out of their digital transactions (DLC and service-games are the most profitable parts of Playstation). Personally, I think their ecosystem is clunky, though. Microsoft's is marginally better and well... Nintendo doesn't have an online ecosystem as far as I am concerned.
Last edited:
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Yeah. The 360 was $200 cheaper than the PS3. That's nuts!
MasterCornholio
Member
Well at least you understand the current situation. Yeah I agree that playstation doesn't appeal to everyone but to many it's their beat option based on their preferences.
Mibu no ookami
Member
I can't see a tangible future where Microsoft concedes the high end console market. 400 dollars isn't a lot for a console today, people are willing to pay more to get more. That's evidenced by the fact that people are spending 200 dollars on a controller and that it is the best-selling peripheral on the market.
What they're probably thinking is they can release their mid-gen refresh in 2025 and make sure that it is more powerful than the PS5 Pro. This thinking is a mistake. By that time Xbox will have lost the mindshare race in totality and it will upset people who buy an XSX mid-gen refresh in 2025 and then they put out a new system just two years later... Especially if the mid-gen refresh doesn't get cross gen titles (because of the Series S).
Microsoft does not want to put themselves in a position where they are a kin to Sega not supporting their hardware for long periods of time.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Phil needs to stop blaming Don Mattrick and the “worst console gen to lose” and take some individual accountability
There’s no way to spin it; under Phil’s leadership, Xbox has never been in a worse state
There’s no way to spin it; under Phil’s leadership, Xbox has never been in a worse state
Mibu no ookami
Member
Sony was able to stop the bleeding on the PS3 with great games. Putting out great games on the PS3 helped Sony out with the PS4 and lead to continued great games.
Nothing is going to save the XS, but they can absolutely repair their brand for the future.
Mibu no ookami
Member
That being said, their model is not going to support growth within the Xbox brand.
Having every game they release, release at the same time on PC ensures better short term profit for that game and worse long term profit for their games and their systems.
If I buy Starfield on PC, does it strongly impact the likelihood that I'll buy Forza on PC? Whereas if I bought Starfield on XS, I would be far more likely to buy Forza if it is the best racing game on XS.
Buying God of War Ragnarok makes it more likely that I will buy Spider-Man 2. Note that even today, you can't buy Ragnarok on PC. Sony understands this, but get this. The people who bought God of War on PC who loved it (96 percent positive for overwhelmingly positive on PC), if they want to continue the story right now, they have to buy a PS5. That is good strategy.
To make matters worse for Microsoft, they don't even have people buy the games, you can rent them essentially via GamePass, making it even less likely that someone would buy your ecosystem to play one game or another. If I play Starfield on GamePass via PC, what does that do to my likelihood to buy Forza on XSX? Literally nothing...
Having every game they release, release at the same time on PC ensures better short term profit for that game and worse long term profit for their games and their systems.
If I buy Starfield on PC, does it strongly impact the likelihood that I'll buy Forza on PC? Whereas if I bought Starfield on XS, I would be far more likely to buy Forza if it is the best racing game on XS.
Buying God of War Ragnarok makes it more likely that I will buy Spider-Man 2. Note that even today, you can't buy Ragnarok on PC. Sony understands this, but get this. The people who bought God of War on PC who loved it (96 percent positive for overwhelmingly positive on PC), if they want to continue the story right now, they have to buy a PS5. That is good strategy.
To make matters worse for Microsoft, they don't even have people buy the games, you can rent them essentially via GamePass, making it even less likely that someone would buy your ecosystem to play one game or another. If I play Starfield on GamePass via PC, what does that do to my likelihood to buy Forza on XSX? Literally nothing...
Gambit2483
Member
That’s rough.
This pretty much feels like Xbox going in to this gen:
Unless 2024 turns out to be a year of back-to-back bangers and must haves it's pretty much a wash this Gen for Xbox.
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Because the Xbox one sales just completely died out mid-gen.
Thick Thighs Save Lives
Gold Member
Welfare from IB has also tweeted their month-to-month HW sales estimation for the first half of the year:
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
They are down versus the Xbox One in Japan too.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
65:35 in favor of Series S would be a good guess.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
He can't even think of another headline to writeAt least you tried.
Syphon Filter
Member
xbox is never going to surpass the 360 sales and ps5 wont sell as much as ps4.
Last edited:
Woopah
Member
They are massively up vs. the Xbox One in Japan, and even above the original Xbox. They are down vs. the 360 though.
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
This is not important at all.
You know, Xbox does not revolve around console sales…
Just look at "engagement"
As you all know, Xbox's "engagement" continues to reach record highs every year.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Some of us Gaffers tried to tell you guys that the issue "IS" deeper than is being talked about. Netflix, Disney+, HBO MAX, etc are all finding this out now. Subscription services are good, but only to a point. And they change the mental strategy of the average customer.
If you keep telling people that they don't need to see your movie in the movie theater, because it's "for free" on a subscription service.............don't be surprised when more movies start to flop in the movie theater 6 months or a year later. Warner Bros and Disney literally instructed people to stay home to watch a brand new $100-$200 million movie at home on day one. And then get mad when their Pixar and WB movies flop the next year.
IT'S WAS YOUR FAULT!
Thick Thighs Save Lives
Gold Member
Maybe I'm crazy here, but I still think that MS can turn this around and not only by ensuring that they drop 4 AAA 1st party titles per year like they've promised, but by being a bit anti-consumer and going away with the day and date 1P releases on PC. Of course, it's a given that those big live service games like COD, Diablo, OW, MMOs and Minecraft should be kept on all possible platforms including Switch and maybe Mobile, but with their big AAA single-player games they should be kept Xbox Series only for at least a year, if not more. It's just a theory though, and it may very well be too far of a proposition considering their current big bet on Game Pass which also includes PC.
Last edited:
Rosoboy19
Neo Member
Any chance Microsoft learns from this? For two generations now have used their gaming platform as a Trojan horse for some other profit-centered services platform (Kinect with cable tv and now gamepass). Both times it has lost to Sony who continues to focus primarily on the core product that people really want, quality games.
Mr Moose
Member
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
It's going to take more than one game to turn things around.
If they released 5-6 big games within the first 3 years, then we'll probably be hearing a different story with the Xbox Series X|S sales.
Tsaki
Member
So in the US, X1 is 1.24M ahead of Series, but I remember about 2 months(?) ago when we had that Xbox Brazil slide leak, that worldwide the consoles were about the same. So I wonder how much ahead Series is ahead of X1 in the rest of the world. Of course in the time between that leak and now the positions between them might have swapped.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Series is not ahead of One in the rest of the world either.
Overall, worldwide, Series has been tracking behind Xbox One for several months now.
I have both consoles and it’s amazing Xbox isn’t completely in the dirt so far this gen. Besides halo Xbox has had zero big exclusives so far. Sony has been burying them to the point where I almost never turn on my Xbox X. It’s freaking sad.
Starfield might help even the playing field a bit but so far this gen has been a massive whiff from ms.
Starfield might help even the playing field a bit but so far this gen has been a massive whiff from ms.
Woopah
Member
Series is ahead of the One in Japan and maybe some emerging markets. But in North America and Europe it is behind and may continue falling behind.
Crayon
Member
I hope everyone can see these authors cut their teeth on forums spamming ms marching orders.
Last edited:
Tsaki
Member
Hmm are we positive on this? The leak was in end of June and I saw some saying that Series and X1 were neck and neck LTD. So if the X1 is ~1M ahead in the US, then the difference has to come from somewhere. Unless of course the comments I saw were straight up wrong and One was always leading in the US and WW.
Woopah
Member
Do you remember where you saw the leak?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
According to Ampere Analysis' report, Xbox Series sold 18.5 million units by December 2022. This was also roughly in line with what I and
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
have been calculating until that point. We had calculated closer to 17.5 million.According to similar analysis back in 2016, which were further validated by EA's CEO, Microsoft had sold 19 million units of Xbox One by December 2015.
So Xbox Series had already fallen behind Xbox One at the end of last year.
Since the start of this year, Xbox Series has been continuously declining. It's -27% down YoY IIRC. Now, it is further validated that XBS is 10% behind X1 in the US (which is a market that constitutes the majority of Xbox console sales).
There is no evidence as of now that XBS is ahead of XB1 -- especially because XBS is 10% behind in the US and has also been behind significantly in the UK. Both these markets roughly make 75% of Xbox market share. The ROTW technically can't make the difference.
So yeah I'm very, very positive on that.
Tsaki
Member
Makes sense. Thanks for the write up!According to Ampere Analysis' report, Xbox Series sold 18.5 million units by December 2022. This was also roughly in line with what I and
According to similar analysis back in 2016, which were further validated by EA's CEO, Microsoft had sold 19 million units of Xbox One by December 2015.
So Xbox Series had already fallen behind Xbox One at the end of last year.
Since the start of this year, Xbox Series has been continuously declining. It's -27% down YoY IIRC. Now, it is further validated that XBS is 10% behind X1 in the US (which is a market that constitutes the majority of Xbox console sales).
There is no evidence as of now that XBS is ahead of XB1 -- especially because XBS is 10% behind in the US and has also been behind significantly in the UK. Both these markets roughly make 75% of Xbox market share. The ROTW technically can't make the difference.
So yeah I'm very, very positive on that.