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January 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, February 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 5-February 1, 2014 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, February 13th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[PS4] 500K       [PS4] 500 thousand
[PS4] 500,000    [PS4] 500.000
[PS4] 500000     [PS4] - 500000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:
PS4 supply

December's Results - thanks to various angles
Here's what we got, so far.

1. 3DS - ?
2. XB1 - 908K
3. PS4 - ~860K
4. 360 - 643K
5. WIU - 481K
6. PS3 - 299K
7. WII
8. PSV - ~95K
Nintendo gave ranges putting 3DS at ~1.1m.

December 2012 NPD thread
January 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Ah that january 2013 thread was when we got warning signs about Wii U's impending failure. Also learned that holidaqy returns affect January hardware numbers. Interesting times.
 

Duxxy3

Member
[360] 180k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 500k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 300k

Going by last years sales combined with what we are seeing on shelves.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Hey donny2112, do you think we might see lower than "normal" sales for any systems from returns this January as was suspected of the Wii U last year?
 
Probably worth noting for anybody looking to 2013 for reference, that Jan was a 5-week month?

[360] 140k
[3DS] 175k
[PS3] 95k
[PS4] 360k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 250k
 

10101

Gold Member
[360] 175k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 300k

Numbers straight from my arse :)
 

Finalizer

Member
First time for everything. #yolo

[360] 150k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 100k
[PS4] 425k
[WIIU] 40k
[XB1] 250k
[PSV]
38175_kappa.png
k
 

DaBoss

Member
[360] 137K
[3DS] 168K
[PS3] 87K
[PS4] 368K
[WIU] 47K
[XB1] 268K

The pattern was totally unintentional.
Totally.
 

BlackJace

Member
[360] 144k
[3DS] 164k
[PS3] 99k
[PS4] 305k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 299k

I don't know how to feel about XBO beating out the PS4. Maybe I'll reconsider.

Wii U, man I don't know anymore. 100k is....feasible. Maybe. Nah, probably not.
 

DaBoss

Member
I completely forgot about the stock conditions for the PS4. What did they say about how they accommodated for the holidays?
 

DaBoss

Member
Fuck all of you who forgot about vita. Who am I kidding, even Sony forgot about vita :(
Nobody forgot.
For monthly predictions in 2014, will be dropping Vita from the predictions and planning to move WiU and PS3 (the really low December knocked it out) down to units only. That would leave 3DS, 360, PS4, and XB1 for the point monthly predictions.

How does that sound?
 
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