1- The first one makes sense and I am not arguing against it. While the first year of PS+ on PS4 was disappointing I have never complained during that time (though I know a lot of people may have, but what are you gonna do about that? This is the internet people complain about everything), my issues started after December 2014 when the tone of games we were getting seem to be much more clear.
So they get one year to bring the games catalog on PS4 up to where the PS3 version of PS+ arrived in two years, after the system had been on the market building a library sans-PS+ for four years before that. But hey, you waited the first year so I guess that means you're the patient one and not the standard "internet people complain about everything" guy right?
Wrong.
2- Again that could make sense if it wasn't for the fact that PS+ on PS3 isn't offering 4-5 year old games or didn't during half of 2012-2013- half of 2014. If it was a regular trend towards all the cycle of PS+, then you would be right but the trend changed. Most likely driven by increasing demand (more people playing for PS+) and Sony trying to attract more customers towards PS+ with better offerings (and in return having more money to leverage publishers to get their games on PS+ as well).
And again, try to understand the actual point of what I'm saying. The gap between a game's release and the game hitting PS+ is only one small factor in the equation, and entirely dependent on various other factors. Late in the PS3 generation it became relatively easy to pick up even ~1-2 year old releases for PS+ because the market was saturated in every sense. Any interested parties owned a PS3 or X360. Any interested parties bought your game within the first quarter of release or else it was generally lost under successive waves of additional releases. That is how late generation software sales work. The industry hits it's stride and starts publishing higher quantities of games in each of the respective quarters and only the biggest, most noteworthy IPs can see any kind of sales carry into the second quarter from release, let alone a full year later. Early in a generation that is not the case and games, especially games with DLC loaded GOTY editions, see continued sales for multiple quarters following release.
Publishers have an all time low incentive level to put games on PS+ now. As a result Sony has far less leverage to bargain with. Instead of blowing their wad on one big AAA game and having to go cheap for months afterwards they hit the digital only scene hard and deliver there. The only "trend" here is Sony's PS+ team trying to maximize game quality within their fixed limits.
3- Less calendar congestion? What? Rise of the Tomb Raider got sent to die in one of the most congested quarters in recent memory. Assassins Creed suffer of that as well (though in the case of Assassins Creed it could be franchise fatigue and market backlash towards the shitastic launch of Unity), I agree that Publishers are more cautious than ever with their properties but at the same time I see 2 year old games (launch games) being sold for $10-15 regularly on sale even on PSN so I doubt publishers want to protect the perceived value of their IPs and even if they are trying to be cautions and catch the last possible tail sales out of every title I doubt they will get it now if they haven't already, not when several games are already in the $10-20 spot at sales.
Yes, less calendar congestion. For starters Tomb Raider was sent to die because it was exclusive to a distant second platform when the majority of it's historical audience are either on Playstation or PC. Second, just because the holiday season is loaded doesn't mean all the other quarters are. A game like Tomb Raider can have shit sales at release early in the generation and Square Enix can try to make it up in the relatively empty next few months for Xbox One releases. By the back half of a generation however 3rd parties are filling all four quarters of the release calendar and if a game doesn't hit at release it's unlikely to ever do so.
And this is why we 're seeing all of these $10-$15 sales. Publishers are squeezing every last retail/direct sale penny they can out of the market before going to things like PS+ or Humble Bundle. Likely because 2016 is stacked from Q1 to Q4 on the PS4 and PC. The warming up period of this generation is coming to a close in 2016 so there has been a mad dash to sell as many units as possible now prior to early generation titles falling into retail bargain bins and (you guessed it) monthly PS+ offerings.
4 - most of the games I mention weren't even sales mean to increase market for a follow up game. Most didn't even got a follow up at all (thank god, I would fly to Japan and bomb Capcom if they ever release DmC).
A follow up is only one factor in helping a game make it to PS+. The typical reason is that it is the last avenue for profits the publisher is left with. This was the case with Binary Domain, DmC, etc.. Their retail sales potential was exhausted so Capcom took some PS+ money for each to pad their profit margins. Currently they're better served slow playing PS4 releases knowing they have years of PSN and Steam sales to chip away various layers of interested consumers before giving up and going PS+. Late in the generation when the "store" is about to "close" they respond differently.
I think the fact of the matter is simple. Sony gets money from PS+ subscribers, Sony use that money to talk to publishers and make deals out of the money they would receive for each download the game gets when offered as a PS+ title. Before they use to sit down and talk for big games because the appeal of PS+ were the games and with big games you get more people paying for it, so that it what explains the better value proposition of PS+ between half of 2012 and half 2014. Sony was actively trying to get PS3 users to get PS+ to save money on AAA games purchases so they accordingly spend more money on the type of games they offered. I doubt that Ubisoft took (relatively) less money from putting Ass Creed 3 on EU PS+ 9-10 months after release from Sony than it took from MS to release Black Flag almost a year and a half later than when the game was released.
And ultimately that is the entire point, Sony now can spend a lot less money on the games for PS+ because more users are basically paying to ransom for Online than they do to play PS+ games.
I like how the counter to the reality of software publishing within fixed generations is so easily hand waved in favor of "nope, all of Sony's various regional PS+ coordinators are both lazy and greedy!"