Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
More than likely. We could also see a lot of Japanese companies dying. Hopefully, some will be able to merge with other companies and live on in some fashion.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Japan 2014 Console/Handheld Market: Lowest in 24 Years + Top Games
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
More than likely. We could also see a lot of Japanese companies dying. Hopefully, some will be able to merge with other companies and live on in some fashion.
Yes, but Super Smash Bros for 3DS will be rhe best selling in the franchise.
Smash U is around 470k sold so far.
Smash 3DS is just over 2m sold so far.
The 3DS is basically the major representative of console/dedicated handheld gaming in Japan at the moment.
Yeah, the third party support was fractured last generation. The Vita is punching above its weight in regards to third party support compared to other also-ran systems in the past.
This isn't to blame third parties though. Nintendo obviously hasn't done enough to make the 3DS the go to system for developers. For one they could try to stop the stigma that games on Nintendo consoles have to be more kid friendly.
There's another thread talking about PC gaming on Windows tablets that's becoming more and more advance. We've got $99 tablets now that can just barely run Crysis. In another few years we could get something really interesting out of this.
Yeah. It seems to me that if you take the Wii/DS boom out of the equation, you'd probably get a steady decline from around 1997... which oddly coincides with how Japanese wages peaked in 1997 if I'm recall correctly. You have to factor in the overall economy over there too, which has reportedly decimated mainstream consumer spending in the last 20 or so years.
That kind of demographic decline of core gamers is exactly what I remember Miyamoto warning people about around 2004. He and the rest of Nintendo were probably mainly talking about the Japanese market. The Wii was a direct response to that post-97 decline, but it seemed to only work temporarily.
If Japan is in the process of ditching handhelds/consoles for F2P mobile games, then China already reached that stage 10 years ago.
But you see, Japan is going to make the switch to f2p and China will fill in the gap of more traditional titles. Then the circle of gaming will be complete.
I mean, there are already rumours of a Chinese game console (a proper one not a knock off)
Boss Mog
Member
To me it really is hilarious (but also really sad and pathetic). The gaming industry created this self-fulfilling prophecy that people don't want console/handhelds and that mobile is the future of gaming. So they slow down production of games for consoles/handhelds and focus on shitty mobile games. So then with a severe lack of quality games obviously the consoles/handhelds aren't going to sell as well, and so then the industry starts to believe their own BS even more creating a viscous circle that feeds on itself and you end up with a great system like the Vita struggling to survive.
I'm convinced that if the Vita had quality original games from Japanese publishers (like a new Monster Hunter, FF, Persona, Metal Gear, Tales or any other popular Japanese franchise really), people would be lining up to buy it.The fact that a new IP like Toukiden was able to do well in Japan shows that they're hungry for those types of experiences.
Japanese devs are always complaining that developing JRPGs on home consoles is getting too expensive and that's why only companies like SE can really afford to push graphics. If that's true then why not develop original JRPGs on the Vita? Obviously now, with the small install-base, it would be a tough sell but at launch it would have helped move a lot of hardware I think. It's like Japanese devs took a wait and see attitude with the Vita but if everybody is waiting and not making games for it, how do they expect it to sell with no games?
I'm convinced that if the Vita had quality original games from Japanese publishers (like a new Monster Hunter, FF, Persona, Metal Gear, Tales or any other popular Japanese franchise really), people would be lining up to buy it.The fact that a new IP like Toukiden was able to do well in Japan shows that they're hungry for those types of experiences.
Japanese devs are always complaining that developing JRPGs on home consoles is getting too expensive and that's why only companies like SE can really afford to push graphics. If that's true then why not develop original JRPGs on the Vita? Obviously now, with the small install-base, it would be a tough sell but at launch it would have helped move a lot of hardware I think. It's like Japanese devs took a wait and see attitude with the Vita but if everybody is waiting and not making games for it, how do they expect it to sell with no games?
Mr. Giggles
Member
I hope something changes in Japan to bring dedicated gaming machines back to the spotlight. There's definitely a market for Japanese developed console games, albeit ironically no longer in Japan
TC McQueen
Member
Having cheaper storage media would help the Vita/PS TV even more, along with a less stupid account system. I would've bought a PS TV already if there was flash drive support, even if it was restricted to Sony flash drives, because fuck trying to buy those memory cards.Boss★Moogle;146259224 said:
Dragoon En Regalia
Member
PC gaming was a big deal from 1982 through ~2002 in Japan, albeit with certain demographics (older young people with incomes/living spaces big enough to accommodate computers). We didn't get anywhere near the vast amount of Japanese PC games in total, but many of the best got console ports localized in Western territories, like Falcom's Ys I & II for the Turbo-Grafx 16 CD. I think GAF underestimates the impact PC game culture has had in Japan, as well as its connections to the rest of their games industry. Eroge didn't comprise the vast majority of 16-bit computer games, even, and some games disregarded because of mature content are worthwhile for their time and today.
As for a PC revival now, it'd be focused on Western audiences wanting to play Japanese games. There's a widespread stigma and/or indifference to investing in gaming PCs, the likes of which can play Ground Zeroes or Crysis 2, in Japan; many Japanese PC games are optimized for earlier OSes and technical specs, that's how serious most customers are about upgrading. So this limits the technical complexity of games developers can make and then expect revenue from, compared to polygon-engine games on Steam on the whole. Playism and localizations to Steam/GOG, as evidenced by doujin successes, will provide developers an alternative to risking it all on console or entering the mobile scene; hopefully developers, with the support of engines like Unity and UE4, can expand their options for more visually complex games in addition to what's already popular with 2D.
While we're pretty close already, in the mid-term, I suspect we will pretty much end up with a three platform market.
Platform 1: iOS/Android - Effectively the same platform for most intents and purposes. This is the biggest platform, though as it's not optimized to how traditional gaming is defined, it's hard to cover every genre and interest that currently exists.
Platform 2: Nintendo Handheld - Whether by continued minor relevance or a NintendOS setup, I suspect their home console will continue to not really be a part of the picture, leaving us with this as the dominating dedicated device.
Platform 3: Sony Console - While I think there's a lot of room to move downward here in terms of relevance, especially if we take the obvious route and they don't make a follow-up to the Vita, the support Sony has garnered largely appears on two or more of their platforms, in many ways making their various devices one platform. The platform that Sony will definitely continue to make is PlayStation home consoles, and due to their success in the West, any Western targeted Japanese titles will likely appear there. As such, I view (Sony last-gen system)/(Sony current-gen system) remaining as at least a smallish enthusiast platform in the mid-term.
I don't think any other venues really receive the kind of support required to be notable market factors.
I see this sentiment expressed a lot but honestly it's a pretty revisionist take. People were incredibly interested in the sort of franchises Wii U has recieved, at least until they suddenly weren't. Million selling brands like Wii Party, Mario Kart, NSMB, Wii Fit, Smash Bros or Monster Hunter that were huge mainstream blockbusters on Wii but really failed to move the needle at all with Wii U.
There are definitely echoes in here of that early optimism many had for Wii U in Japan. That's not say PS4 will share the same fate (or least not as severely), but there is an eerie similarity here in the expectations some have for the abilities of a handful of titles to move hardware. Particularly for a system doing as bad as PS4 has in Japan so far.
Nirolak said:
I know you argued that publishers will be able to make the transition when they have to but I think a lot of developers/publishers have so far failed to prepare for post-Vita future. The most common pattern now is Vita + Sony home console but if next gen it's just the home console(which will probably be less popular than the PS4) is that sustainable? Keeping in mind that the series going that route are all Japan-centric.
I'm almost apprehensive about the idea that Sony won't launch a Vita successor because it would pull the rug out from under quite a few publishers.
It's not like Vita's poor performance has affected its third party support so publishers would be onboard with a successor.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
sörine;146266631 said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=498093
Pretty much. I guess its technically "dominating" because the PS4 is just as bad although that could change in 2015. Unlikely to say the least though. Think the writing has been on the wall for a white regarding consoles in Japan. Real question is how long do handhelds last.
The Wii U outsold every other home console combined last week in Japan.(or is Week 52 the week before last?)
#Dominating
Stereogatari
Banned
These are what I'm banking on to reinvigorate that market and Dragon Quest XI.
Monster Hunter on PS4 as well I suppose?
Declining birthrate is just going exacerbate the numerous growing social problems (massive gender inequality given that it's a first world country, economic future looking grim, political regression to right wing stupidity, etc.). Global warming will probably fuck Japan too. Japan has a million problems and no mechanisms in place to address them. I used to thing American politics were broken, but compared to Japan? pretty functional relatively speaking.
It's not impossible they launch a successor.
If they set extremely low expectations they can effectively just use completely unmodified mobile parts to keep R&D as low as possible and then sell it with the expectation set and (lack of) first party effort you would see out of a normal low effort consumer electronics device like an Android set top box.
The question is if the opportunity cost makes any sense, which is the hard part.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Monster Hunter on PS4 isn't going to do anything. The selling point of MH is playing together with friends and during commute, that's why the serie got big when it went to handhelds.
I almost feel like it could hurt their relationship with Japanese third parties if they didn't. I guess the big question is how would they handle it; would they actually tell publishers "We're not working on a Vita successor" or would they just leave them hanging?
I suppose the fact that they seem to be prodding them to transition to PS4 could be to signal that the Vita is the end of the road as well as bolster the lineup.
Yoda
Member
Given the current state of AAA development I'd bet that it is a bubble as opposed to mobile. But both claims are sensationalist and without any basis in my book. Mobile is here to stay and if people prefer it over consoles/PC, well its their money.
AcademicSaucer
Member
I for one welcome our new f2p mmo and moba overlords
Cornbread78
Member
Damn, that Nintendomination in software titles. .
SatelliteOfLove
Member
We're entering a wierd era where what we know as Japanese gaming will either be made nigh explicitly to the PS4/PC-owning foreign market or (God I hope so) a mobile market that shakes off that LCD & IAP-soaked wasteland that continues to dominate those platforms. Both are fraught with danger.
LordBaztion
Member
we need platform holders to moneyhat japanese developers.
It's somewhat sad that both of those paths ignore the fact there is a perfectly viable market leader for dedicated gaming platforms.
CosmicQueso
Member
They just announced that $1,200 Walkman thing. If they have room to develop that, they can come up with another handheld. There's money that needs to be burned apparently.
Cornbread78
Member
Honestly, that may be the only way we get enough jrpgs on consoles this gen. Everyone go out and buy Disgaea V!
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
"beastmode"
They've been doing that for decades now.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I have a crazy idea.
What if Sony made the PS4 mobile, just for Japan? Make the slimmest model possible, and attach a screen to it. Call it PSfour. Similar to how there was a PSone.
And yeah, I realize something similar can already be done with Wii U
not properly portable... but
I need this.not properly portable... but
I honestly can't see Micfosoft going down that route again.
As for Sony, they are already known for having plenty of third party exclusives from Japan, without moneyhating anyone.
It will be hard to break the vicious circle japanese developers have put themselves into since last gen (fear to invest into developing new big projects -> consumers don't buy since there's nothing interesting -> developers are even more scared to do anything). Mobile isn't going to cover such a decline.
The only solution I see is platform holders helping them establishing new profitable IPs through specific collaborations.
The only solution I see is platform holders helping them establishing new profitable IPs through specific collaborations.
Inexorably rising development costs are going to carry on making things more and more difficult and making the publishers more and more risk averse. There is a chance for Nintendo to see growth with their next console depending on how the market accepts their next innovation. Sony likely won't innovate too much since they are doing well with the PS4 on a global basis. There really isn't a good option available to Japanese 3rd parties.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
Yes, the 3DS will likely be the second best selling dedicated gaming device ever in Japan by the time its successor launches and even in the west, where it is a lot weaker, it's still a viable platform. Unless that was somehow included in your latter category?
TC McQueen
Member
Well, there's PC, but good luck getting a lot of Japanese developers to make something for the platform, and good luck getting publishers to accept that even barebones localizations and competent ports will get them some sales, even after all the Japanese PC port success stories.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
True, but the profit margin for this $1,200 walkman is probably higher than the PS Vita.
I love the PS Vita, but it would be silly to make a successor to the console when you have the PS Vita selling under 10 million consoles when all is said and done in several years. Maybe if Sony somehow turned it around and made it a viable console from 2015 and it becomes a sleeper hit, but they don't seem like they want to dedicate that much effort and money to do it.
As it is the PS Vita is a niche otaku console that has Otaku Pandering games and Monster Hunter clones. That is not a recipe for success now, and it wont be in the future.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
There are people with the opinion that those franchises on the Wii U just don't have the same draw anymore. I don't think that's the case necessarily. I think there's also poor marketing and poor implementations in play. As an example, Monster Hunter is still a huge deal. The thing is, it's really become a game that people want to play on the go. People want to play with friends during their commute. What was once a console game now makes more sense as a handheld/mobile title. I don't know why anyone ever expected the Wii U version to do that well.sörine;146266631 said:
I understand there are echoes of Wii U optimism. That said, I still don't think it's that useful to compare a console fraught with so many problems with the PS4. They're totally different eggs with totally different potential futures.
I guess the point for comparison is that PS4 is also a console that is fraught with problems in Japan. Problems that some are expecting declining 3rd party franchises like Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts to solve for Sony.
I agree with this, especially in bold.