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[test_account]

While I know this wasnt directed at me and will apologize for the rudeness here answering in the place of someone else. Owning the game can say that it is a brand new game in the sense of new art, maps, cards, but things like the story itself seems to be generally the same formula that they have used in their previous culdcept titles. Along with characters that appear.

I ment it as a general question for everyone I just forgot to put the question on a seperate line.

Ok, i see, thanks for the info

wut....

It was an extreme example to highlight the question I wonder where the line goes from "lowered expectations" to "sales are good". It is all relative to something else. So in the next generation, and the next generation after that, do we still say lowered expectations if the home console market doesnt go back to the PS1/PS2 days?

 

[Man God]

Vita is going to have a rough Autumn. Fall has never been a more appropriate term.

 

[Parakeetman]

One VERY important point too about the new 3DS culdcept is that out of all the culdcept games, this one the AI is the least bullshit of the bunch.

Granted it still can kick your ass, its just not a constant thing like with the previous titles. But it will put up a good fight. Nowhere near the end yet, but the fact that the first few battles in the story have not been "table flipping" fun says a lot.

Being a collector of the series am glad to finally see them tone it down a bit. Since no wonder why new players get scared away.

 

[donny2112]

The sales were great for the fact it was a brand new property. The sales were not great because of the game's budget.

Yep.

From there if it all works out well move monster hunter into the mix and presto. Evolution of the series without risking the IP in the process.

With the seeming drop of the MHPortable line, they may have moved the main series onto handhelds now. In that case, instead of trying to make another "Monster Hunter" line on consoles, maybe they're trying to setup a parallel brand with similar gameplay, but different IP/setup.

Really enjoy the in-depth explanations you give of Japanese game environment (e.g. the Wizadry stuff earlier), by the way.

But even with Dragon's Dogma, that is three games in like 2 years?

Every game doesn't need to bomb for the overall software sales to be lacking compared to previous "good" systems.

Do we still say lowered expections to Mario games because SMB1 sold 6 million copies?

Pretty sure that overall software sales have been higher in generations since the NES days.

How far back does it goes from "lowered expectations" to "sales are good". It is all relative to something else.

300K.

Spoiler

It's obvious compared to the recent environment in Japan (e.g. last 10 years) that PS3 has not been a particular strong seller of overall software. Is it possible for individual games to buck the overall trend and end up selling on-par or even better than they did in previous generations? Obviously. That doesn't change the reality that the overall picture is not as strong as it has been. If you want to say PS3 is "great" compared to other systems in 2012, that's reasonable, but that's not how we discuss sales here. 2012 console software sales are pretty low and have been for a few years compared to historical numbers. Therefore saying it's "great" now is ignoring the past history of console sales in Japan. Some people think this is the new norm, that Japan is a handheld nation, and consoles will just be relegated to these depressed sales for the forseeable future. Others, including myself, think this is due to the Wii not really being supported by the industry leaving the PS3 as the default choice for third-party titles. However since PS3 was hamstrung by other bad choices (mainly price) and events (Wii's immense popularity with the mainstream taking many "one console a generation" buyers out of PS3's available pool), it's left third-parties with a relatively poor location to sell their wares compared to at least the past two generations.

 

[Parakeetman]

With the seeming drop of the MHPortable line, they may have moved the main series onto handhelds now. In that case, instead of trying to make another "Monster Hunter" line on consoles, maybe they're trying to setup a parallel brand with similar gameplay, but different IP/setup.

Really enjoy the in-depth explanations you give of Japanese game environment (e.g. the Wizadry stuff earlier), by the way.

Am glad to hear you enjoyed the Wizardry bits. Its nice to see others appreciate the classics also.

One thing that I had found the most fascinating about whats going on with the MH4 is the fact that for the first time ever I think now, an actual monster from Frontier is making its way into a "home console" version. Since it had always seemed until now that the 2 teams were separated, which included gear and monsters. This seems to disprove that theory which is a good sign. Its the new "spider monkey" the one who climbs around vines and shoots webs. He was one of the latest additions to Frontier on the PC. Not sure what ver the 360 version is on.

Though the whole dragons dogma thing is just my view in regards to what I really think the whole game is from a business / development standpoint. Plus in some ways to prod the Western Market to see what their response is to the series using the new formula but yet not sacrificing the high profile name. Granted there was the experiment with the Wii with Tri but thats still using the older formula of the game itself with design.

There are a lot of technical things that they still need to deal with and I can understand why perhaps this time around they did not want to include MP into the game. If the SP has a bunch of technical issues such as pop in / vanishing enemies etc imagine what happens when you throw in netcode to the mix. Its apparent that capcom still has yet to get that sort of deal correct too with how in monster hunter, the placement of the weaker non boss enemies are different for everyone regardless of being connected together. Its one thing they seem to have never been able to fix through the whole history of the series.

 

[test_account]

Every game doesn't need to bomb for the overall software sales to be lacking compared to previous "good" systems.

Sure, but the reason why i bring this up is in the context of which games that are released. If pretty much all individual games sell within expectations, it means the sales are good in that regard. But if fewer big title games are released, this will affect the total software sales (like the PS2 had many more games and bigger titles than the PS3 had, so that is one reason why the PS2 had such big total software sales compare to PS3).

Pretty sure that overall software sales have been higher in generations since the NES days.

300K.

Spoiler

It's obvious compared to the recent environment in Japan (e.g. last 10 years) that PS3 has not been a particular strong seller of overall software. Is it possible for individual games to buck the overall trend and end up selling on-par or even better than they did in previous generations? Obviously. That doesn't change the reality that the overall picture is not as strong as it has been. If you want to say PS3 is "great" compared to other systems in 2012, that's reasonable, but that's not how we discuss sales here. 2012 console software sales are pretty low and have been for a few years compared to historical numbers. Therefore saying it's "great" now is ignoring the past history of console sales in Japan. Some people think this is the new norm, that Japan is a handheld nation, and consoles will just be relegated to these depressed sales for the forseeable future. Others, including myself, think this is due to the Wii not really being supported by the industry leaving the PS3 as the default choice for third-party titles. However since PS3 was hamstrung by other bad choices (mainly price) and events (Wii's immense popularity with the mainstream taking many "one console a generation" buyers out of PS3's available pool), it's left third-parties with a relatively poor location to sell their wares compared to at least the past two generations.

Sure, compared to the pervious generations, the sales are much down indeed. I was just wondering where the line goes from accepting the market has changed and how far we should go back (hence the extreme SMB1 example) and use as a comparison

About PS3 being a default choice, how do you mean? The developers could (and still can) easily develope for the Wii, there is a huge installbase out there. But still they choose the PS3. It is a deliberate choice they make. Do you mean that with "default choice", that the PS3 is the console 3rd parties believe the most in?

 

[BishopLamont]

The sales were great for the fact it was a brand new property. The sales were not great because of the game's budget. I don't think Capcom's displeased with Dragon's Dogma Japanese sales.

The two kinda go together, you need the sales to justify the budget. The game wouldn't have such a budget if expected sales aren't reached, without that budget, the sales could have been even lower. In the end the sales didn't reach what was expected, no matter what that budget was.

This is not like just for example, a new IP where Capcom expected 1.5M and only reached 1.2M. DD definitely didn't do what it was set out to do, and sales was the reason. It fell short by millions. Yeah in a vacuum you can say DD Japan sales were great for a new IP, but Capcom expected better world wide sales and they gave it the budget to do that. They're not gonna look at the sales and think "oh we gave it too much money" no, they're gonna look at the sales as the reason.

 

[test_account]

The two kinda go together, you need the sales to justify the budget. The game wouldn't have such a budget if expected sales aren't reached, without that budget, the sales could have been even lower. In the end the sales didn't reach what was expected, no matter what that budget was.

This is not like just for example, a new IP where Capcom expected 1.5M and only reached 1.2M. DD definitely didn't do what it was set out to do, and sales was the reason. It fell short by millions.

Capcom's sales report has Dragon's Dogma at 1.5 million if i'm not mistaken, so it couldnt fall short by millions. The 10 million prediction was just something that the director of the game said, it wasnt Capcom's expectations.

 

[matmanx1]

Ugh@ Max Anarchy bomb. Having played the game I think it deserves better and it seems like SEGA might be at fault for poorly promoting it.

Good start for EO4. Now let's see if it has any legs to speak of.

 

[BishopLamont]

Capcom's sales report has Dragon's Dogma at 1.5 million if i'm not mistaken, so it couldnt fall short by millions. The 10 million prediction was just something that the director of the game said, it wasnt Capcom's expectations.

They can project how much it can sell based on retail preorders, they definitely expected more than 1.5M initially, hell they expected 1M from Japan alone, you think they created a game solely to appeal to the west just to sell 500k?

 

[test_account]

They can project how much it can sell based on retail preorders, they definitely expected more than 1.5M initially, hell they expected 1M from Japan alone, you think they created a game solely to appeal to the west just to sell 500k?

Sure. That is new to me though, do you have any source to Capcom's earlier predictions for Dragon's Dogma? The 1 million prediction was also from the director, not by Capcom.

 

[BishopLamont]

Sure. That is new to me though, do you have any source to Capcom's earlier predictions for Dragon's Dogma? The 1 million prediction was also from the director, not by Capcom.

Its called common sense, you don't create a game thats meant to appeal to the west and expect the most sales from Japan, instead of you know...the regions you're trying to appeal to.

 

[Hellraider]

They can project how much it can sell based on retail preorders, they definitely expected more than 1.5M initially, hell they expected 1M from Japan alone, you think they created a game solely to appeal to the west just to sell 500k?

How many time's are Itsuno's words gonna be paraphrased?Capcom never expected 1m in Japan or 10m worldwide.Those numbers were just the director's wish!

 

[test_account]

Its called common sense, you don't create a game thats meant to appeal to the west and expect the most sales from Japan, instead of you know...the regions you're trying to appeal to.

It is not about common sense when it comes to specific sales expecations. That is pure numbers. I dont know what Capcom's earlier predictions was other than the 1.5 million worldwide that they gave in their sales report. I havnt seen any breakdown of region sales expectations either.

It is possible that Capcom did have a higher expectation early on indeed, but that is just a guess. You made a claim that they did have higher predictions than the 1.5 million, so i wanted to ask about it because i havnt heard about it before.

 

[Bruno MB]

I wonder how many units of Dragon's Dogma Capcom managed to ship in the West.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

It is needed because Nintendo needs to make some money this fiscal year to get the share holders off their balls. For the holiday season they will have enough third party releases + Animal crossing and have to shift focus on WiiU. Right now is a good time to be done with it so that holiday titles can benefit from the bigger userbase.

This makes sense, but seems a bit shortsighted. So rather then sending a title like NSMB 2 that will sell regardless of date/competition out into the busy waters, Nintendo is sending Luigi's Mansion 2 out then to die. I think there is no doubt that in the long-run NSMB2 will sell just as good regardless of when it is released, the same can't be said for LM2.

Personally I would release NSMB2 early next year in Japan. Early enough for a large chunck of its sell to be accounted for during this fiscal year, would be released during a presumably lull period for the 3DS, it would give more time for SML3D's legs to grow, and would not overshadow NSMBWiiU during the holidays.

 

[metalslimer]

This makes sense, but seems a bit shortsighted. So rather then sending a title like NSMB 2 that will sell regardless of date/competition out into the busy waters, Nintendo is sending Luigi's Mansion 2 out then to die. I think there is no doubt that in the long-run NSMB2 will sell just as good regardless of when it is released, the same can't be said for LM2.

Personally I would release NSMB2 early next year in Japan. Early enough for a large chunck of its sell to be accounted for during this fiscal year, would be released during a presumably lull period for the 3DS, it would give more time for SML3D's legs to grow, and would not overshadow NSMBWiiU during the holidays.

This would require putting either making a large gap between the Japanese and English releases of the game (wouldn't make sense financially) or delaying the western release (also not possible because of how terribly the3DS is selling in the west).

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

LBXBB no bomba?! Should be fun to watch how LBXW Vita sells...

 

[muu]

Sell through for Toriko as bad as rumored (the famitsu page shows this in 25% increments). Could be another indicator that the PSP market is rapidly eroding.

About PS3 being a default choice, how do you mean? The developers could (and still can) easily develope for the Wii, there is a huge installbase out there. But still they choose the PS3. It is a deliberate choice they make. Do you mean that with "default choice", that the PS3 is the console 3rd parties believe the most in?

Oh come on, you know the answer to this already. Same bullshit that's propagated in the States: the Wii isn't a "serious" console so people won't buy games for it. Or so is the belief, and the self-fulfilled prophecy as the drought of non-Nintendo software alienates folks looking for something else. Only difference is that the Japanese devs are being more cost-conscious compared to western devs and their huge-budget games, which can result in games that look like they should have been on the PSP or Wii.

 

[Dalthien]

I wonder how many units of Dragon's Dogma Capcom managed to ship in the West.

With sales as weak as Dragon's Dogma is the west, it doesn't really matter what they ended up shipping. Even if they stuffed an extra 500k or 750k into the west channels - they'd just end up eating the cost on the back end anyway because of price protection when the retailers started slashing the prices to clear the inventory.

That's why shipping numbers for games which don't actually sell to consumers really don't mean much of anything in the west (for most publishers). It's not an indication that the game was healthy (although it does make for a nice PR blurb).

Sell through for Toriko as bad as rumored (the famitsu page shows this in 25% increments). Could be another indicator that the PSP market is rapidly eroding.

Yeah, the big-time erosion started last year with the rotten holiday season that the PSP had. And it's just been eroding further and further as the year has gone on. That's why Namco really needs to figure out what the hell they're doing with God Eater 2 in a hurry. If they're planning on releasing it on PSP, then it better be out by September. If they're planning on making it a holiday title, then they'll be sending it to die, because the PSP market is drying up fast.

 

[Takao]

LBXBB no bomba?! Should be fun to watch how LBXW Vita sells...

I can tell you it won't do very well. Worse than the numbers for the 3DS port.

 

[Four_Chamber]

As expected, Vita sales back in the shitter. With no big titles for a long time, its going to continue struggling if its pulling sales like this back in the homeland.

 

[schuelma]

About PS3 being a default choice, how do you mean? The developers could (and still can) easily develope for the Wii, there is a huge installbase out there. But still they choose the PS3. It is a deliberate choice they make. Do you mean that with "default choice", that the PS3 is the console 3rd parties believe the most in?

The PS3 was the choice for 3rd parties way back in 2005 when Nintendo was coming off the Game Cube and Sony was coming off the PS2. For the most part, 3rd parties never tried to build a userbase on the Wii for its games. The PS3 became the default choice a long long time ago.

 

[metalslimer]

As expected, Vita sales back in the shitter. With no big titles for a long time, its going to continue struggling if its pulling sales like this back in the homeland.

With Sony's financials coming up (and no doubt more losses) I can't imagine they won't cut the price in a few weeks and maybe even have a Vita heaven even to coincide with that. People say cutting the price without big software won't do anything but it won't matter if Vita dies before then anyway

 

[Father_Brain]

People say cutting the price without big software won't do anything but it won't matter if Vita dies before then anyway

It will do something, yes.

It will drastically increase Sony's losses on Vita while failing to improve sales enough to restore third parties' confidence in it. Which, with Sony's current financial state being what it is, will probably expedite the death of the platform.

 

[test_account]

Oh come on, you know the answer to this already. Same bullshit that's propagated in the States: the Wii isn't a "serious" console so people won't buy games for it. Or so is the belief, and the self-fulfilled prophecy as the drought of non-Nintendo software alienates folks looking for something else. Only difference is that the Japanese devs are being more cost-conscious compared to western devs and their huge-budget games, which can result in games that look like they should have been on the PSP or Wii.

The PS3 was the choice for 3rd parties way back in 2005 when Nintendo was coming off the Game Cube and Sony was coming off the PS2. For the most part, 3rd parties never tried to build a userbase on the Wii for its games. The PS3 became the default choice a long long time ago.

Yep, it was because the developers chose it themself, year after year. It was not like they were stuck with just one console because they had Wii as a choice too. I was just wondering if this is how he ment it.

 

[Dalthien]

With Sony's financials coming up (and no doubt more losses) I can't imagine they won't cut the price in a few weeks and maybe even have a Vita heaven even to coincide with that. People say cutting the price without big software won't do anything but it won't matter if Vita dies before then anyway

Nintendo cut the 3DS price in mid-August with Iwata specifically mentioning that they had to do that in order to keep the retail channel on board with the 3DS during the holiday season (and also because 3rd-parties were already started to question their future support of the platform).

Sony has already waited longer than Nintendo (in time from launch) to drop the price - and I suspect they've already lost a lot of future 3rd-party support by waiting too long. But a price drop by August can at least still try to salvage some decent retail orders this holiday season.

But taking some big losses on a platform struggling this badly will be a tough choice. I can't imagine much of anything has been greenlit for the platform in the past few months, so even if they do go with a big price drop at this point, the software that was started before Vita launched will eventually all be released, and then there will be a big software drought coming, which could nullify any advantages gained from a price drop anyway. Sony would really have to be prepared to carry the software load on their own for a year or so, and with PS4 coming - I can't see them being prepared to do that.

But yeah, if there's a price drop coming, it's within the next month or two. Otherwise they'll be guaranteed an awful holiday season, because retail just won't be placing any big orders - so Vita won't even have a chance to sell (big numbers) during Christmas.

 

[Count Dookkake]

.

 

[slaughterking]

I can tell you it won't do very well. Worse than the numbers for the 3DS port.

I wonder what (if) are even thinking. Putting a kids game on the Vita while the target audience will clearly just buy the PSP version seems super pointless. Having a Vita version wont hurt anybody, but why even bother in this case.
And not having a 3DS version seems especially stupid after this weeks charts, which unsurprisingly prove the existence of significant demand for that type of game on the 3DS.

 

[Kenka]

I think this is a sign: all the first five games on 3DS are third-party (if you mix in Culdcept) and all have had decent/good sales in their respective genre. I think Nintendo has been successful in stealing the PSP audience for midrange RPGs and action games.

That is big big news. Those genres are selling better for the first time on Nintendo hardware since 1996.

Let's see if the trend continues.

 

[SaintMadeOfPlaster]

Just out of curiosity, what's up with posting the Famitsu numbers instead of Media Create now? I thought Famitsu's numbers were considered inferior (At least that's the vibe I get).

 

[Erethian]

Sure, compared to the pervious generations, the sales are much down indeed. I was just wondering where the line goes from accepting the market has changed and how far we should go back (hence the extreme SMB1 example) and use as a comparison

You just said it. Hardware sales are well down on the previous generation, software sales are way down on the previous generation. The only time consoles have sold well was during the early years of the Wii and even that has a caveat. PS3 hardware sales have never been good in an absolute sense, nor has its overall software sales. There isn't really much to argue about.

Just out of curiosity, what's up with posting the Famitsu numbers instead of Media Create now? I thought Famitsu's numbers were considered inferior (At least that's the vibe I get).

They're both as accurate (or inaccurate, take your pick) as each other. Media Create was used for the threads because their numbers came out first, now Famitsu's numbers come out first.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Just out of curiosity, what's up with posting the Famitsu numbers instead of Media Create now? I thought Famitsu's numbers were considered inferior (At least that's the vibe I get).

Neither set of numbers are "inferior", Famitsu's have been coming out first leading to Famitsu conversation for a given week occurring in the previous week's Media Create thread, which is abit of a mess.

 

[Forever]

Just out of curiosity, what's up with posting the Famitsu numbers instead of Media Create now? I thought Famitsu's numbers were considered inferior (At least that's the vibe I get).

I heard they're actually considered more accurate, but it used to be Media Create simply because they were faster. Famitsu is now faster, so no more need for Media Create.

edit: Or I guess they're the same.

 

[Devilgunman]

So the next bump for Vita is when Miku comes out then. That more than a month to go! And the one after that is a huge wave on 9/27 with DJ Max, YS, and Danball Senki W. I wish Vita can get more games from Jump anime or Gundam. I have a really bad feeling that Soul Sacrifice will be bomba.

 

[SaintMadeOfPlaster]

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks, guys.

 

[TheNatural]

They're both as accurate (or inaccurate, take your pick) as each other. Media Create was used for the threads because their numbers came out first, now Famitsu's numbers come out first.

So is Famitsu basically catering to the hardcore now?

Sales wars!

 

[Bruno MB]

I think this is a sign: all the first five games on 3DS are third-party (if you mix in Culdcept) and all have had decent/good sales in their respective genre. I think Nintendo has been successful in stealing the PSP audience for midrange RPGs and action games.

That is big big news. Those genres are selling better for the first time on Nintendo hardware since 1996.

Let's see if the trend continues.

Reading your comment one would have the impression that NDS didn't exist

 

[Chris1964]

Important Milestone Altert: Etrian Odyssey IV is officially the first 3rd party 3DS game to sell the best in its respective established franchise 1st week!

So much excitement for a false statement.

 

[Kenka]

Reading your comment one would have the impression that NDS didn't exist

I think that midrange RPGs, action games were more of a PSP specialty. Tales of series and some other examples used to be the backbone of the PSP survival before MH kicked in.

Now, I do agree though that NDS also had its fair share of ACT/RPG games but I still maintain that loads of 3rd party offerings were more at home on PSP.

 

[schuelma]

I like Famitsu because you get numbers for the top 30. All hail Famitsu.

 

[Nibel]

Max Anarchy numbers make my heart bleed.
People love fucking sequels.

 

[test_account]

You just said it. Hardware sales are well down on the previous generation, software sales are way down on the previous generation. The only time consoles have sold well was during the early years of the Wii and even that has a caveat. PS3 hardware sales have never been good in an absolute sense, nor has its overall software sales. There isn't really much to argue about.

You're right, there isnt much to argue about. But it wasnt ment as an arguement, it was just a straight forward question. I was wondering where he ment the line goes from "lowered expectations" to "good sales". If he means from the previous generation, then that is the answer to my question, i wouldnt argue much further then

But in the next generation, if the console sales (hardware + software) is about the same as this generation, will someone then say that the sales are good? It is of course all relative depending on what you compare it to, but i was wondering where people draw this line.

With the DS vs 3DS, the DS had sold about 23 million games more than the 3DS in the same time period since launch. But i dont hear comments about how poorly the 3DS software is doing. Here it seems that most people have accepted that the 3DS wont be as popular as the DS, and they therefor refer to the 3DS sales as good/great. In this case people have drawn the line, so i was wondering how it will be regarding consoles.

 

[Culex]

Chart updated:

Sad to see Vita fall back down. I really thought it would hit 1 million by September.

 

[BassForever]

Unless something really funky happens Vita will cross the 800k mark next week.

 

[Man God]

Chart updated:

Sad to see Vita fall back down. I really thought it would hit 1 million by September.

Not realistic. Why did you think it would stay around 20k?

 

[Culex]

Not realistic. Why did you think it would stay around 20k?

Persona 4 + White Vita hardware.....

Wasn't meant to be!

 

[Alrus]

How much do you guys think Mario Party 9 will end selling? It's showing decent legs but the numbers so far are rather low for a Mario Party game...

Persona 4 + White Vita hardware.....

Wasn't meant to be!

A game in a genre that is notoriously frontloaded and a new colour don't usually give hardware stable sales for such a long time.

 

[Chris1964]

I like Famitsu because you get numbers for the top 30. All hail Famitsu.

Bwahaha.

Enterbrain had the an advantage of giving software share every week but now that they removed it Media Create has no competition.

 

[Culex]

Unless something really funky happens Vita will cross the 800k mark next week.

Vita is at 818k already.