ITT, predict for the NPD July 2016 retail period (July 3-30, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: July 3-30, 2016 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, August 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted1 week later on August 18th ~6:30 p.m. EDT delayed to Monday, August 22 ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in July:
Pokemon Go released on mobile July 7th, and everything Pokemon got a boost (e.g. 3DS) - 24 days
Continued XB1 sales to clear stock, including Amazon Prime Day sales on July 12th - 28 days
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
June's Results (used for predictions)
June 2015 NPD thread
July 2015 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: July 3-30, 2016 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, August 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted
Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[XB1] 200K [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000 [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000 [XB1] - 200000
Potential hardware impacting events in July:
Pokemon Go released on mobile July 7th, and everything Pokemon got a boost (e.g. 3DS) - 24 days
Continued XB1 sales to clear stock, including Amazon Prime Day sales on July 12th - 28 days
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
June's Results (used for predictions)
3DSAquamarine @ Gamrconnect/VGC per NPD said:PS4 - 234.5k
XB1 - 211.9k
WIU - 34.6k
Some calculations of possible 3DS values based on the above Unit MOM change are here.Aquamarine @ Gamrconnect/VGC per NPD said:
- 3DS+Vita HW revenue ~= $21m
- Monthly hardware sales (units):
PS4: -36% YOY (+13% MOM)
WIU: -51% YOY (+37% MOM)
XBO: -28% YOY (+98% MOM)
Industry: -32% YOY (+44% MOM)
So now June range is 129-137k.
June 2015 NPD thread
July 2015 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive