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[vpance]

Using the Vita as a benchmark is a really bad idea. It was about half the price depending on model and a standalone device.

Not that I wanted to make the comparison in the first place, but yes, Vita had price and standalone going for it, but arguably it's still more niche of a device than PSVR, regardless of those points. You have to account for that "grandma creaming her panties in Tuscany" wildcard factor.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Not that I wanted to make the comparison in the first place, but yes, Vita had price and standalone going for it, but arguably it's still more niche of a device than PSVR, regardless of those points. You have to account for that "grandma creaming her panties in Tuscany" wildcard factor.

A handheld portable device more niche than VR? Heh

 

[Omnistalgic]

Think it'll do a million...

If Resident evil 7 is amazing in VR, it might be the first AAA system seller.

 

[vpance]

A handheld portable device more niche than VR? Heh

Nothing can be more niche than Vita. Nothing.

 

[-Horizon-]

I honestly don't know.

Guess out of my butt: 450,000 units worldwide by December 31, 2016

 

[decaf]

In 2016? 50,000-100,000.

 

[FearlessBelgian]

50-70.000 in 2016

 

[ShadowKingpin]

I'm going with 1.5 million.

 

[Mushroomer25]

~300k. It's really difficult to put a number on this. VR has so much heat right now, but I don't know if a 'balanced' solution is what consumers are looking for. I get the sense most people with a casual interest will be won over by mobile VR, while those going all-out won't see the point investing in anything less than the Vive.

At the same time, I could be 100% wrong on this. Sony has a very attractive product right now for midrange consumers. They've got big franchises,and are at least putting moderate effort into marketing. This thing could sell anywhere between 100k and 3 million, and I would not be shocked.

 

[sense]

Man, some of you guys are crazy if you think this will sell less than 500k. Some are even going less than 100k. You understand this is a worldwide launch right? My prediction is 1m for 2016.

 

[LifeBrandRobot]

Depends on how much Sony can make lol. I'll say 800k to 1mil.

 

[Orin GA]

355k, then its all down hill from there.

 

[oo7]

200-300k tops. I've got a bad feeling about this. PS Move / Vita feelings.

Software will have to drive this thing and I don't think it's gonna do it. To me VR is a fad, a novelty that will not gain mainstream success. Hoping I'm wrong but after using the Samsung VR (I know it's kinda like Apples n Oranges) I can't see it pushing a million units.

 

[Agnostic Priest]

Omg amazing

 

[King Gilga]

200k max then veryone will forget about it like the vive, oculus and vita.

 

[Aztechnology]

Not that I wanted to make the comparison in the first place, but yes, Vita had price and standalone going for it, but arguably it's still more niche of a device than PSVR, regardless of those points. You have to account for that "grandma creaming her panties in Tuscany" wildcard factor.

For PSVR? I don't think so. I'm fairly confident for now that will be reserved to phones. Doing a walk around locationally or experiencing what is essentially a recorded special video recording doesn't really take the same processing power. The mobile VR will be for those people. I really feel that you won't be seeing those people buying a Playstation and PSVR for that experience. In fact I'd say it's more likely they would buy an Oculus or something for their home computer (Very unlikely still) but more likely than a console and headset.

 

[Onemic]

100k

 

[beef3483]

Taking cancelled preorders into account, -10.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

GAF is squally dead wrong with these sort of things. I'm gonna go with 1M at the end of the year.

LOL @ people saying 300K or less.

 

[Gemeanie]

IMO 1 million is possible. Unlike PC VRs which are still not available to some part of the world Sony is launching this on the same day worldwide and most places have preorder opened for second wave.

People can argue the production was low to begin with but with the scale of Sony's marketing eg setting up demo booth everywhere including tiny markets like SEA I doubt that was the case. In usual cases they'd just leave us in the cold and allocate everything to JP and NA lol.

Even my brother who've left gaming for years called up to ask about PS VR, until I told him he'll need a PS4 to run it lol. On the other hand he has not heard of Oculus and Hive because they are both not launched here.

Edit: I think the support from Japanese industry also makes PS VR more appealing to people here.

 

[nabe_shogun]

286k. I just don't see enough people caring about it for it to be more.

 

[DangerMouse]

Going with at least 1 million.

They would sell more if they would just open up more pre-oders

Yup.

Poor Vita.....

It may not have done as well as it should have but it's still getting tons of games.

However many they can manufacture. Has Sony even confirmed that there will be a second batch of shipment before the end of the year? I know they held some stock for the launch, but pre-orders are sold out everywhere, at least in the US.

This is gonna be the big thing, they need to get more in stock for November thru December.

 

[kiunchbb]

1.5 to 2 millions this year, 5 millions next year. VR had been so hype up, but most people, espeically console owner, could not afford Oculus or Vive. I can see PSVR capture a lot of those market just from the hypes.

 

[javadoze]

Less than 500k. I'd like to be wrong, but I feel people are greatly overestimating the number of people willing to buy a VR headset the same price as the PS4pro.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

600k. No killer app and still quite expensive.

I'm way more curious how it will do next year.

 

[Reallink]

I would bet my account the naysayers would still be talking doom and gloom

try as I may, I was not able to find any estimates for the Oculus. people seem to believe it has sold more than vive, but beyond that dont know. do you know of an estimate?

Yea, and they would be right to do so. PSMove famously spawned a bunch of "4 MILLION SALES!!" press releases by the end of it's first quarter, and supposedly went on to like 12 million in a couple years, which was the last I remember seeing Sony acknowledge its existence. We know how well that worked out don't we? It's a very real concern, Sony abandons shit with reckless abandon.

 

[DangerMouse]

1.5 to 2 millions this year, 5 millions next year. VR had been so hype up, but most people, espeically console owner, could not afford Oculus or Vive. I can see PSVR capture a lot of those market just from the hypes.

Same thoughts here. I think the price is really going open it up worldwide.

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Around 300k sounds about right. No gangbusters, but a good beginning.

 

[Generalpsyduck]

At least 5

 

[blakep267]

1.5 to 2 millions this year, 5 millions next year. VR had been so hype up, but most people, espeically console owner, could not afford Oculus or Vive. I can see PSVR capture a lot of those market just from the hypes.

Eh I'd say the vive and oculus show that it's not as hype up as the Internet would want you to believe. Do you think %10 of the pS4 instal base is gonna drop $400 on a VR headset throughout the year? That's not happening. Good $60 games sometimes don't even sell that much

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

599,599

 

[Lister]

666 Muahahaha!

 

[Lister]

You don't need to sell the console as well when there is 43.5 million of them that have been sold.

Edit: I don't really think it likely myself but it's not impossible the PS4 sold 7 million in about the same period, there is a larger market saturation and there will be a cross over of sales between the two new products and/or appeal to different markets. Plus there is the holiday period during the time frame.

Dude most ps4 $60 dollar games don't move those kinds of numbers... but a 400 dollars peripheral plus more for the camera and controls is going to?

Common now.

 

[Reallink]

Eh I'd say the vive and oculus show that it's not as hype up as the Internet would want you to believe. Do you think %10 of the pS4 instal base is gonna drop $400 on a VR headset throughout the year? That's not happening. Good $60 games sometimes don't even sell that much

It's not $400, you can't even use the thing @ $400. Requires the $60 camera, which now that there's a new model, is actually $60. The vast, vast, vast majority of people do not have a camera. You also probably won't be able play most game going forward without Moves, as all of the HMD's will support motion and most future games will target it.

 

[DreadfulOmen]

This year is almost over, i think it will sell less than a million. I thinking it'll sell a little less than half a million.

 

[Granadier]

Ha, you're delusional.

 

[Z3M0G]

After all the cancelled preorders I'm hearing about I think they'll be lucky to sell 1K.

Why are they cancelling??

 

[The12thGripper]

250K if they're lucky

 

[Garmonbozia]

750K

 

[bobbytkc]

Nothing can be more niche than Vita. Nothing.

The Vive and oculus is alrwady more niche than the vita. The Vita has 13.5 million units sold. I don't think PSVR will ever reach that number.

 

[DangerMouse]

It's not $400, you can't even use the thing @ $400. Requires the $60 camera, which now that there's a new model, is actually $60. The vast, vast, vast majority of people do not have a camera. You also probably won't be able play most game going forward without Moves, as all of the HMD's will support motion and most future games will target it.

You don't need the new camera if you already have the original PS4 camera from launch. A good number of people already have Moves as well.

http://twitter.com/yosp/status/773664298488987653

 

[Aeqvitas]

I don't see it doing more than 300k by Dec 31 2016.

It has a lot going against it. It is the most or close to the most expensive console peripheral ever released. That means it isn't gonna attract many brand new buyers as that is gonna mean about an $800 entry point. That means it is gonna rely on upgrades from existing users, which will still mean mostly $500 (pretty sure that 99% of users do not have an existing camera which is required), and that is more than twice as much as the kinect was, which had the advantage of cashing in on the tail end of the Wii craze, whereas the current feelings on VR are still pretty tepid.

I think Sony is trying to replicate the Wii, going as far as to artificially restrict the supply this holiday to give the appearance of it being hugely in demand, however I don't think consumers will fall for it. There will be a small core of loyal users who will buyout the initial small shipment or two, but after that I think it will fizzle out. Unlike the Wii, there is no pack in game, let alone something of the Wii-Sports caliber. A demo disc isn't gonna make tons of people go out and hunt for it, and none of the demos seen so far seem like they have any sort of lasting appeal.

There are already two superior VR systems, so a lot of the people who really want to experience VR with the current offerings mostly already have. The only way PSVR succeeds is if it differentiates itself enough in terms of cost and software offerings. Right now I don't think it looks like it is low enough in price to bring in a substantial base (it costs more than the PS4 did at launch for almost all current PS4 users), it will be canabalized by core PS users who would rather spend the dough on a PS4 Pro, and none of it's software seems much better than the other VR offerings.

If the world is really thirsting to throw down $500-800 en masse, I will be very surprised.

 

[Crimsonclaw111]

It's gonna be a small amount and the games probably won't be good either except for like Driveclub.

 

[Thoraxes]

i'd ballpark 300k

 

[Lord Panda]

No killer app. 500K.

 

[The Dear Leader]

No more than 500,000 I would think, closer to 250,000-300,000 seems more likely, if that. At the end of the day it's a $400-$500 add on, historically those have not sold huge amounts.

 

[TrojanBlade]

Not many if the good content/games come out regularly. It will just die away like kinect, Move etc. If Sony really wants to make this a success, they should mandate a PSVR mode for all the games that come out. Yes I know this is not an way thing to do,, but without this, it will not survive for long.

 

[Aters]

300k at most.

 

[visiblemode]

2.5 million. This will sell well.

 

[DangerMouse]

That means it is gonna rely on upgrades from existing users, which will still mean mostly $500 (pretty sure that 99% of users do not have an existing camera which is required), and that is more than twice as much as the kinect was, which had the advantage of cashing in on the tail end of the Wii craze, whereas the current feelings on VR are still pretty tepid.

I don't know about that, I think there are more of them out there than expected given all the people share streaming out of nowhere since the PS4 launch, often with a camera.