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May 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 6th

H

hanspampel

Banned
Anderson DL said:
Gotcha. Thank you.
Click to expand...

keep in mind, that the user Liabe Brave has a personal vendetta against me, so don't take anything serious he says in regards to me.

the estimates of ps4 outselling xb1 roughly 2:1 are not mine. i just agree on them.
Michael Pachter said it numerous times. Daniel Ahmad agrees on it and i doubt you find any person in the industry saying that numbers is completely wrong.
plus i already accounted for the fact, that Xb1 lost some stream against Ps4 lately. hence the "little less than half of Ps4" statement. all estimates have error margins. take that into account and make up your own mind.

but don't take the word from a user here, who is more into desperately finding anything that could be considered racist in posts, harrasment and personal insults...

Kazuma Kiryu said:
Holy crap, I'm dying at this.
Click to expand...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228297750&postcount=696
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228611603&postcount=448
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228683459&postcount=913
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228623413&postcount=582
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231339739&postcount=7516

and i'm sure there are more out here on neogaf that i missed, because he is obviously on my block list
but he can't let it go and needs to make it personal every time, even tho i never even engaged with him directly.
pretty self-explanatory what kind of great human being that person is
 
K

Kazuma Kiryu

Member
hanspampel said:
keep in mind, that the user Liabe Brave has a personal vendetta against me, so don't take anything serious he says in regards to me.

the estimates of ps4 outselling xb1 roughly 2:1 are not mine. i just agree on them.
Michael Pachter said it numerous times. Daniel Ahmad agrees on it and i doubt you find any person in the industry saying that numbers is completely wrong.
plus i already accounted for the fact, that Xb1 lost some stream against Ps4 lately. hence the "little less than half of Ps4" statement. all estimates have error margins. take that into account and make up your own mind.

but don't take the word from a user here, who is more into desperately finding anything that could be considered racist in posts, harrasment and personal insults...
Click to expand...

Holy crap, I'm dying at this.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
hanspampel said:
keep in mind, that the user Liabe Brave has a personal vendetta against me, so don't take anything serious he says in regards to me.

the estimates of ps4 outselling xb1 roughly 2:1 are not mine. i just agree on them.
Michael Pachter said it numerous times. Daniel Ahmad agrees on it and i doubt you find any person in the industry saying that numbers is completely wrong.
plus i already accounted for the fact, that Xb1 lost some stream against Ps4 lately. hence the "little less than half of Ps4" statement. all estimates have error margins. take that into account and make up your own mind.

but don't take the word from a user here, who is more into desperately finding anything that could be considered racist in posts, harrasment and personal insults...
Click to expand...

😂😂😂😂
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
C'mon hanspampel :D

Using the Welfare 58% for US:

16.5m / 0.58 = 28.45m

I'm using Welfare 58% but for me it is close to 60% that puts XB1 at 27.5m... that is more in line with most 3rd estimates.

That is around what XB1 sold WW... it has a long way to cross 30m yet with actual monthly sales (less than 300k)... probably it will only happen in September.
 
Humdinger

Humdinger

Member
hanspampel said:
keep in mind, that the user Liabe Brave has a personal vendetta against me, so don't take anything serious he says in regards to me.
Click to expand...

Look, I don't want to get into your history with him. I'm just asking about Xbox One vs. 360 sales. Seems like you're both saying X1 is behind 360 at this point. You say it's a slight deficit, he says maybe it's more than slight. That's good enough for me. Thank you. Didn't mean to stir up old feuds and resentments.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Anderson DL said:
Look, I don't want to get into your history with him. I'm just asking about Xbox One vs. 360 sales. Seems like you're both saying X1 is behind 360 at this point. You say it's a slight deficit, he says maybe it's more than slight. That's good enough for me. Thank you. Didn't mean to stir up old feuds and resentments.
Click to expand...

Everything is fine. You didn't bring up anything. That is purely on myself.

You are allowed - even encouraged - to question what I or anyone else is saying here. Just don't do it because a particular user told you so.


If Ps4 is outselling Xbox One by 2.1:1 the end of march 2017 sold in number would be roughly 28.5 million.
This is afaik an estimate Ethomaz said here numerous times. Small changes in the rating result in kinda big total number differences.

That is the main reason, the famous ~2:1 ratio was and still is valid. A change of 0.5 points does not just happen. Not over night and not even in a years.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Don't expect any false compassion in this community if you feel persecuted or vendettised by another member.
If you are not capable to trick and misguide your enemy into irreparably unforgivable statements, contradictions and meltdowns that will lead to his permaban (or at least +/- 4 weeks), then you better should meditate about your lack of capabilities and work on your own flaws.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Don't expect any false compassion in this community if you feel persecuted or vendettised by another member.
If you are not capable to trick and misguide your enemy into irreparably unforgivable statements, contradictions and meltdowns that will lead to his permaban (or at least +/- 4 weeks), then you better should meditate about your lack of capabilities and work on your own flaws.
Click to expand...

I look forward to your posts more than I do NPD data.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Looks like the media release will come the Monday following E3, as has happened in other years when the timing has worked out this way. I'll confirm when finalized.
 
A

AmyS

Member
So we (the public) are not going to see anything until June 19th ?

This actually makes me really want some facts & figures at Sony's E3 press conference, even though it's apparently again going to be games, games, games.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Stanng243 said:
[NSW] 190K
[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 750K
Click to expand...

I'm going to hazard a guess that Stanng243 did not mean to predict 750,000 for XB1 in May. Figuring an extra 0 snuck its way in there. (~_^)
Edit: Good, just making sure. :)

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - May-2017

1. NSW - 249K
2. PS4 - 191K
3. XB1 - 105K
 
S

Stanng243

Member
donny2112 said:
I'm going to hazard a guess that Stanng243 did not mean to predict 750,000 for XB1 in May. Figuring an extra 0 snuck its way in there. (~_^)

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - May-2017

1. NSW - 249K
2. PS4 - 191K
3. XB1 - 105K
Click to expand...

You are correct. Typing is hard.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
AmyS said:
So we (the public) are not going to see anything until June 19th ?

This actually makes me really want some facts & figures at Sony's E3 press conference, even though it's apparently again going to be games, games, games.
Click to expand...

E3 and all. Industry peeps will be busy next week.

As for Sony facts and figures, I thought the interviews published earlier (was it this week?) were informative.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
MatPiscatella said:
E3 and all. Industry peeps will be busy next week.

As for Sony facts and figures, I thought the interviews published earlier (was it this week?) were informative.
Click to expand...

Yeah, they were very informative:

- PS4 nearing 60 million sold (expected)
- 1 out of 5 are PS4 Pro's (expected)
- PSVR at 1 million sold (great!)
- Stronger focus on Japanese games (awesome!)
- PS Vita still viable in Japan (lol)
 
P

Penguin

Member
Reggie just confirmed MK 8 Deluxe was the best selling single SKU, based on the wording would suggest something like Injustice sold better overall though
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
So... quick take on the MS conference.

I really like the games portion of the conference. A number stood out, Ori, AC Origins, Metro, Wardor, Anthem, Artful Escape all impressed.

As for the HW, my optimistic assumptions that drove my 600k US year 1 number weren't met. The $499 price point is a challenge, the breadth/depth of content, in particular exclusive content (whatever that means anymore), and services didn't meet my forecast expectations. I have yet to work out a new forecast, but I'm estimating I'll drop my forecast number somewhere between 150-250k.

The hardware is sleak, the games looked absolutely jaw dropping gorgeous on the displays. Framerates and fidelity were phenomenal. No question on the technical strength of the hardware. I said "wow" more than a few times. But that price point is tough for breaking into the mass market.

It could still do well, especially among the core gaming community. But that price.

A lot of story this E3 is yet to be told, so it's too early to have any definitive take yet. The Xbox One X is a hell of an impressive piece of tech. I can't wait to buy one, because the games looked soooo good. But what we call in the forecast word "headwinds" exist.

Great show for high fidelity gaming, loved the games shown. Can't wait to buy/play a bunch of them. But that HW price point is a huge challenge, and the content shown was great, but I don't think it's enough. I hope I'm wrong, and that One X sales make me look a bigger idiot than usual. Guess we'll see.

EDIT: Sony conference - no change to previous outlook/forecast. It was fine.

EDIT 2: Nintendo - A lot of reason for long-term optimism. Great showing.

Mory Dunz said:
Impressive...I think
Click to expand...

It is. Both games did great.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
After watching all E3 conferences, I think I can say with confidence that for the rest of 2017 (except for September), the ranking will be
#1: NWS
#2: PS4
#3: XBO

In September there's a chance PS4 may be #1, but that depends on the existence of a Destiny 2 bundle.
 
N

noobie

Banned
Chobel said:
After watching all E3 conferences, I think I can say with confidence that for the rest of 2017 (except for September), the ranking will be
#1: NWS
#2: PS4
#3: XBO

In September there's a chance PS4 may be #1, but that depends on the existence of a Destiny 2 bundle.
Click to expand...
So you are predicting November December will belong to NWS, and all the Sony's third party bundles will fail. 😶

That is a bold prediction
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
So here are the major releases in the US after E3 for the rest of the year. These are only games that I saw that had official exact release dates, and of course, some of these could be delayed. Note that these are NPD months, so Rabbids Battle Kingdom will be in September even though it's an August launch.

June
ARMS - Switch
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy - PS4

July
Splatoon 2 - Switch
Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age - PS4

August
Madden NFL 18 - PS4, XB1
ARK Survival Evolved - PS4, XB1
Uncharted: Lost Legacy - PS4

September
NBA 2K18 - Switch, PS4, XB1
FIFA 18 - Switch, PS4, XB1
Destiny 2 - PS4, XB1
Pokken Tournament DX - Switch
Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle - Switch
Knack 2 - PS4

October
Just Dance 2018 - Switch, PS4, XB1
Middle-Earth: Shadow of War - PS4, XB1
The Evil Within 2 - PS4, XB1
South Park: The Fractured But Whole - PS4, XB1
Assassin’s Creed Origins - PS4, XB1
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus - PS4, XB1
Super Mario Odyssey - Switch
Forza Motorsport 7 - XB1

November
Xbox One X $499

Call of Duty WWII - PS4, XB1
STAR WARS Battlefront II - PS4, XB1
Need for Speed Payback - PS4, XB1
LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 2 - PS4, XB1
Crackdown 3 - XB1
 
N

noobie

Banned
Welfare said:
So here are the major releases in the US after E3 for the rest of the year. These are only games that I saw that had official exact release dates, and of course, some of these could be delayed. Note that these are NPD months, so Rabbids Battle Kingdom will be in September even though it's an August launch.

June
ARMS - Switch
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy - PS4

July
Splatoon 2 - Switch
Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age - PS4

August
Madden NFL 18 - PS4, XB1
ARK Survival Evolved - PS4, XB1
Uncharted: Lost Legacy - PS4

September
NBA 2K18 - Switch, PS4, XB1
FIFA 18 - Switch, PS4, XB1
Destiny 2 - PS4, XB1
Pokken Tournament DX - Switch
Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle - Switch
Knack 2 - PS4

October
Just Dance 2018 - Switch, PS4, XB1
Middle-Earth: Shadow of War - PS4, XB1
The Evil Within 2 - PS4, XB1
South Park: The Fractured But Whole - PS4, XB1
Assassin’s Creed Origins - PS4, XB1
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus - PS4, XB1
Super Mario Odyssey - Switch
Forza Motorsport 7 - XB1

November
Xbox One X $499

Call of Duty WWII - PS4, XB1
STAR WARS Battlefront II - PS4, XB1
Need for Speed Payback - PS4, XB1
LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 2 - PS4, XB1
Crackdown 3 - XB1
Click to expand...
Thanks for the list. Looking at it I feel Sony can win 4 out of the remaining months of the year with right bundles and price promotion. It all depends how much they are willing to be aggressive.
 
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