jimbo:
1.
Presentation: Please stop with the RANDOM capitalization, out of
place boldings, and
silly underlinings to add emphasis. It makes both you and your argument appear weaker (and easier to not take seriously).
2.
# of weeks: I apologize for mistaking your number of weeks to be 14 instead of 13. That would indeed make your prediction 140k-235k (even though you said 150k-235k). I will rework my previous argument to account for this:
235k/13 weeks = 18.07k / week.
150k/13 weeks = 11.53k / week.
The chart above is still relevant so I will include it again:
3.
The Chart of Non-Reality: The above chart shows the max of what you suggest, with OCT averaging 11k, NOV averaging 15k, and 30k averages for DEC. Does this look like reality to you? Not including the first 6 weeks on sale, do you know how many times the 360 has gone above 10k weekly sales? That would be exactly 4 times my friend, 3 of which have been the last 3 weeks. To date, the 360 has never hit 30k past its launch period and you're seriously suggesting that it will average 30k for the month of December? How does that makes sense?
4.
Averages? Why are you insisting on this shot-in-the-dark "12k per week" thing? Where does that number come from? How did you arrive at that number? Why do you think that is the number that 360 will average for the next 13 weeks? Why are we trying to average out something that changes dynamically in much shorter intervals? How can you stand by such a statement?
5.
Our Differences in Analysis: If you expect shortages, account for them. If you don't, don't. If you're not sure but want to leave leeway just in case, try coming up with a better method of prediction. What you call momentum, I call hope. What you call price drops and spikes, I call attempts at sustaining a 6% foothold in the marketplace. What you call historical data, I call boundaries on reality and a realistic base of expectations.
6.
Dec 06 vs Dec 08: Did you just suggest that this year will be bigger than the 360 launch? Really? You said that you believe '08 will be bigger than '06. Why? Because of momentum? jRPGs? Price Drops?
7.
The Last Remnant: I assume you meant that I'm suggesting that it will only move 18k 360 hardware units, and not sell 18k software copies? Probably. I looked again, and you may be right. It will probably debut around 80k-100k software units sold and may push the hardware as high as 30k. I would point to IU as a precedent, though, and you might notice how sales fell through the floor after one week (typical for a jRPG). I think this is important because you're using TLR to predict a massive upswing in average sales per week, when it should only have a one or two-week effect. Considering all of this may have me push my prediction up around 5k (125k +/- 10k), but in no way would that justify a 200k prediction.
8.
NOV vs. DEC: Did you really just compare November 2006 to December 2006 and say "421% increase!?" Not only was that the launch period for the 360 (so those weeks are always an anomaly -- check any console history to confirm), but it was only on sale for one week in November. Hardly the most honest of comparisons you've thrown out there so far.
Why are you looking at Nov vs. Dec. % increases anyway? Is this a good predictor of console sales? That might actually be a compelling argument...if you had any data to back it up other than one year of 360 sales that went up from 6k in November 2007 to 8k in December.
9.
Conclusions: I think what you're trying to do is assume that TLR will magically sell more 360 hardware units than any other piece of software it has already received (so you think it will sell more than 28k units), and then you're taking the average of that month with the TLR-bump in it and increasing it by 45% to determine what December should look like? Do I have that right? Can you look at that and not tell why that's a flawed method? How are you factoring "momentum?" How are you factoring in price drops?
10. I appreciate that you're conversing in a civil tone and I will continue to do so as well. I want you to know that I am wrong all the time and have no problem being wrong, but when I'm wrong its because I had a flawed method, not because I was shooting in the dark with hope and magic expectations. If you're right, I want you to be right because you have a solid method and not for other, sillier reasons. And I definitely don't want you to be wrong and potentially embarrassed because you overlooked a few simple things.
Just please knock off the random caps, bolds, and underlines. Thanks d00d.