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Media Create Sales 1/29 - 2/4

Pureauthor said:
2 going on 3 generations. It's not exactly down to a science, but it certainly shows signs of a trend.

3rd Console Curse, some folks call it.


That whole "curse" thing is bullshit. People like to adhere ridiculous fairy tales to these things for some stupid reason. Remember the "A black console has never been successful" curse? Oooh spooky.

Nintendo fell because the company got too confident in itself and a competitor came in and changed the game around them. The same seems to be happening to Sony. Nothing more, nothing less.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
That whole "curse" thing is bullshit. People like to adhere ridiculous fairy tales to these things for some stupid reason. Remember the "A black console has never been successful" curse? Oooh spooky.

Nintendo fell because the company got too confident in itself and a competitor came in and changed the game around them. The same seems to be happening to Sony. Nothing more, nothing less.

WHY do you think people call it a curse? It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - or at least it is based on what we've seen of the console wars thus far.

No one honestly believes that someone somewhere made a proclamation, "And lo, no console shalt hold the crown of the generation for more than two times in a row, lest gamers have to deal with their arrogance. Yea, verily." It's a trend in the industry that's been noted and given a fancy name. That's all.
 
Pureauthor said:
WHY do you think people call it a curse? It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - or at least it is based on what we've seen of the console wars thus far.

No one honestly believes that someone somewhere made a proclamation, "And lo, no console shalt hold the crown of the generation for more than two times in a row, lest gamers have to deal with their arrogance. Yea, verily." It's a trend in the industry that's been noted and given a fancy name. That's all.

So then why call it a curse? It's bad decision making on one end, and good on the other. Nothing more, nothing less.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
So then why call it a curse? It's bad decision making on one end, and good on the other. Nothing more, nothing less.

Because the 'third console trend' sounds less catchy.

If you want, you can substitute with 'three generations rule'.
 
Pureauthor said:
Because the 'third console trend' sounds less catchy.

If you want, you can substitute with 'three generations rule'.

I don't see it as a rule.

We only have Sony and Nintendo to go by here. Also, I think it's skewed because the same two companies are involved. I highly doubt that if both competitors are still in the market 3 gens in the future that they would both sit idly by and let another company leapfrog them.

Really though i'm just ranting, you are right about it being more catchy.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
I don't see it as a rule.

We only have Sony and Nintendo to go by here. Also, I think it's skewed because the same two companies are involved. I highly doubt that if both competitors are still in the market 3 gens in the future that they would both sit idly by and let another company leapfrog them.

Really though i'm just ranting, you are right about it being more catchy.

Company name starts with 'A', ends with 'I'.

And that was even better, because they crashed the entire US industry along with them.

Oh, yeah, and some draw parallels to Sega, who reached the pinnacle with the Genesis before everything went to pot.
 
IGN has an Insider article about the PS3 sales in Japan (declining, slipping to #5 last week). This degree of slide surprises me a bit considering that they have a $430 SKU there.

A couple of years back, if you'd have told someone that in early 2007, the PS3 would be number five in system sales just a couple of months following its launch, you'd have probably gotten fanboy stamped on your forehead. If you'd have insisted that Grand Theft Auto San Andreas would be the biggest game in Japan, you'd have probably gotten your passport confiscated.

But this past week, both unthinkables happened. The PS3 was beaten in hardware sales by the DS, Wii, PSP, and even the PS2. Meanwhile, Capcom's localization of Grand Theft Auto San Andreas topped the charts.

We're trying to figure out which is the bigger story. For the PS3, we already discussed last week how poorly the system is selling. Stock, new and used, is readily available, and despite a strong push by retailers to get people to notice the system, complete with storefront displays, the numbers have been dropping rather than increasing.

That is the teaser:
http://insider.ign.com/teasers/762/762197.html
 
Pureauthor said:
WHY do you think people call it a curse? It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - or at least it is based on what we've seen of the console wars thus far.

No one honestly believes that someone somewhere made a proclamation, "And lo, no console shalt hold the crown of the generation for more than two times in a row, lest gamers have to deal with their arrogance. Yea, verily." It's a trend in the industry that's been noted and given a fancy name. That's all.

I agree. Sony's failure so far(the "console war" certainly isn't over yet) can be directly traced to their own arrogance and poor business decisions, not some magical curse. Interestingly, arrogance and poor business decisions are what destroyed Nintendo's dominance as well. Nintendo became arrogant and indifferent to developers, and seemed to feel that since these developers didn't have much of a choice to not support their systems, who cares about their concerns. Then came the cartridge decision. Sony was right there to swoop in those developers and give them the freedom they wanted.

Fast foward to the last couple years and we see reports of Sony's arrogance and indifference to the concerns of third parties; when you add that together with the high dev costs it's not hard to see why the PS3 has lost many once exclusive titles, and stands to lose more this year. Then you have the Blu Ray decision, which as far as I'm concerned is going to be the difference between Sony winning and losing the console wars. I find these various "Blu Ray is taking over!" threads entertaining; at the end of the day, the medium may be doing better than HD-DVD, but it's not taking hold of the market. That's not going to happen until 2009 or so when the HDTV penetration becomes bigger.

But at the end of the day Blu Ray doesn't matter as much as the games. Until Sony offers something that appeals to the Japanese market, the PS3 might stay in the same position. VF5 is not going to start some surge, and neither is MGS4; both series are on the sales decline in Japan whether people want to admit it or not. With FFXIII not coming out until 2008, Sony is going to need to find something to fill that void, and quick.
 

bud

Member
PhoenixDark said:
But at the end of the day Blu Ray doesn't matter as much as the games. Until Sony offers something that appeals to the Japanese market, the PS3 might stay in the same position. VF5 is not going to start some surge, and neither is MGS4; both series are on the sales decline in Japan whether people want to admit it or not. With FFXIII not coming out until 2008, Sony is going to need to find something to fill that void, and quick.

uh

MGS3>MGS2>MGS1 in terms of sales in Japan
 

bud

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Do you have a link? I don't believe that for one second

I edited, I meant Japan and not ww.

But I do remember MGS3 being closer to the million mark than MGS2. It's in one of the older mc threads. I can't find a link though
 

Lapsed

Banned
GAF said it wasn't possible for the PS3 to fail in Japan...

chaoscopyza2.jpg
 
I think MGS3 hit the million mark in Japan while MGS2 didn't. Regardless of whether I'm correct or not, the series has never truly been a system seller and I doubt MGS4 will be.
 

bud

Member
Magicpaint said:
I think MGS3 hit the million mark in Japan while MGS2 didn't. Regardless of whether I'm correct or not, the series has never truly been a system seller and I doubt MGS4 will be.

Yeah, it's never been a really big game in Japan. It's biggest market is Europe.
 
donny2112 said:
Famitsu Jan 22-28

Yeah! It's only #8 on Famitsu for Jan 22-28 and should pass 5 million in a couple of months. What's up with that!?! It's dropping like a rock. :(

I don't like that sarcasm. He had a legitimate question because Pokemon was once dominating top 10 at #1 or #3/4.

All of a sudden, the individual games dropped below the Top 15 and Top 20s for media create and haven't been booming as they once did. There was no explanation for the SUDDEN drop off.

Love and Berry did the same thing.

Gosh the sarcasm on GAF
 
PantherLotus said:
While that thread has tons of potential self-ownage within its ugly insides, it's been a couple months. It would be most appropriate in JAN 08.

Yup. This could all turn around in 6 months and those proclaiming that sony fans need to eat crow for their thoughts on the PS3's success could be telling Nintendo fans the same then.

Let me set my table ready for some crow...

The PS3 will never pass the Wii in Worldwide or Japanese hardware sales. It might have a few weekly and monthly spikes that are better than the Wii, but cumulatively - Nintendo is the Wiiner
 

donny2112

Member
LanceStern said:
He had a legitimate question because Pokemon was once dominating top 10 at #1 or #3/4.

Brain Training 2 used to be at #1 or #3/4, and now it's lucky to be in the top 15. I guess it's dropping like a rock, too. :(

LanceStern said:
There was no explanation for the SUDDEN drop off.

hint: it's called "time."

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 7, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 8 <- Pokemon's weekly rank by Famitsu since launch.

Cosmonaut X said:

:lol
 
donny2112 said:
Brain Training 2 used to be at #1 or #3/4, and now it's lucky to be in the top 15. I guess it's dropping like a rock, too. :(



hint: it's called "time."

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 7, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 8 <- Pokemon's weekly rank by Famitsu since launch.



:lol

He's talking about it and Media Create.

I was definitely caught off guard when Pokemon was off the top 10 down into the 15s and 20s. It seemed like it was just too fast. Sure it was on top for a number of weeks....

Forever seems so small
 

Joe Molotov

Member
PantherLotus said:
While that thread has tons of potential self-ownage within its ugly insides, it's been a couple months. It would be most appropriate in JAN 08.

Some posts are already funny, though.

drohne said:
since dq5, the series has been alternating between janky installments and beautifully-produced installments -- if that pattern holds, dq9 will be a wii game. BLIEVE

actually i can't see dq's creators putting japan's most prestigious franchise on a console that can't accommodate a thoroughly first-rate game. but that's me.

PureAuthor said:
In order of possiblity of DQ9 appearing for all systems that are actually alive in Japan by the time it comes out -

1 &2)PS3/Wii
3)PS2
4)NDS
5)X360
6)PSP

ethelred said:
Entirely incorrect.

There are only three possibilities: PS3, PS2, and Wii.

Dragon Quest IX is not going (barring SE going with their new polymorphic content trend - one which they've shown no inclination to apply to the Dragon Quest franchise, incidentally, which is strictly under Yuji Horii's control) to appear on a handheld platform. Period. Never. This is not going to happen. People need to drop such abundantly shitty and ludicrously insane ideas that are just... beyond belief. It's a console series -- one of the biggest ones Square Enix has, at that. They're not going to move the next installment of it onto a handheld system.

They didn't even do that for Seiken Densetsu, and people think it's even remotely plausible as a concept that they could do this with Dragon Quest? God, it's frustrating to even be confronted with such insanity. Stop repeating such stupid nonsense, please.

ROFFLECOPTER! :lol :lol Now that's maximum ownage. And poor drohne, I think Nintendomation in the console market too might just kill him.
 

donny2112

Member
LanceStern said:
I was definitely caught off guard when Pokemon was off the top 10 down into the 15s and 20s. It seemed like it was just too fast. Sure it was on top for a number of weeks....

And that shows how misleading a ranking without real numbers can be. ;)
 

Deku

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
So then why call it a curse? It's bad decision making on one end, and good on the other. Nothing more, nothing less.

I don't believe in these superstitious rantings either and they're along the same lines as, the GameCube launched on <insert random astronomical or real world event here> therefore if a console launched with the same conditions it will do just as well. A few years back, it was game consoles shipping in egg cartons (Virtual Boy, Dreamcast).

Might as well be doing this.
piratemap-1.jpg
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I'd love to meet some of those 17 pirates.

Though... that chart is almost 7 years old, and the average global temperature has surely gone up... I think we've lost some more pirates :( probably only 12 are so left, for shame. I blame them Republicans.
 

Deku

Banned
John Harker said:
I'd love to meet some of those 17 pirates.

Though... that chart is almost 7 years old, and the average global temperature has surely gone up... I think we've lost some more pirates :( probably only 12 are so left, for shame. I blame them Republicans.

War on terror is raising global temperatures.
 
ethelred said:
Entirely incorrect.

There are only three possibilities: PS3, PS2, and Wii.

Dragon Quest IX is not going (barring SE going with their new polymorphic content trend - one which they've shown no inclination to apply to the Dragon Quest franchise, incidentally, which is strictly under Yuji Horii's control) to appear on a handheld platform. Period. Never. This is not going to happen. People need to drop such abundantly shitty and ludicrously insane ideas that are just... beyond belief. It's a console series -- one of the biggest ones Square Enix has, at that. They're not going to move the next installment of it onto a handheld system.

They didn't even do that for Seiken Densetsu, and people think it's even remotely plausible as a concept that they could do this with Dragon Quest? God, it's frustrating to even be confronted with such insanity. Stop repeating such stupid nonsense, please.

Holy shit :)

Really enjoy ethelred's posts, as they're normally well-argued and informed, even if I disagree with them, but that's a hell of a missed ball!
 
Cosmonaut X said:
Holy shit :)

Really enjoy ethelred's posts, as they're normally well-argued and informed, even if I disagree with them, but that's a hell of a missed ball!

Really though? No one expected DQIX on DS. I sure as hell didn't; I'm sure there's some embarrassing post of mine in a thread somewhere stating the same thing.
 
Cosmonaut X said:
Holy shit :)

Really enjoy ethelred's posts, as they're normally well-argued and informed, even if I disagree with them, but that's a hell of a missed ball!
:lol

Yeah, I really respect Ethelred's contribution to the forums. He sometimes comes off a little condescending to people, but he knows his stuff. Really, who would've seriously placed money on DQIX coming to the DS? Of course anyone could imagine it happening, but...really?
 
Dragona Akehi said:
Really though? No one expected DQIX on DS. I sure as hell didn't; I'm sure there's some embarrassing post of mine in a thread somewhere stating the same thing.

I'm sure all but the most deluded were thinking the same thing. It's just that most people weren't as vocal or public or completely and utterely convinced to the point of becoming angry when anyone even raised the possibility as ethelred.
 

Joe Molotov

Member
Dragona Akehi said:
Really though? No one expected DQIX on DS. I sure as hell didn't; I'm sure there's some embarrassing post of mine in a thread somewhere stating the same thing.

It's one thing to say "I don't think Dragon Quest IX is going to be on the DS" but ethelred sounded like he'd never been more sure about anything in life.
 

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
pestul said:
I think even the worst haters were convinced PS3 would be selling out until at least March in every region.. this is downright awful.
Don't worry. Europe will prove that the first million or so will sell out in a day.
 

Parl

Member
I thought Wii or DS through deduction.

PS3 has FF13, and SE doesn't want PS3 to be the overwhelming winner, and putting two huge-in-Japan franchises on PS3 doesn't line up with that well.

Xbox 360; flop in Japan, simple reasons, really.

PS2, on its way out. I imagined that with the next FF not on PS2, same will apply for the next DQ.

That leaves DS and Wii. If I was thinking straight, maybe I should've thought DS because of the installed base and with a DQ spin-off being a clear indicator on what SE thinks about Wii concerning the franchise. But no, I didn't come up with a definitiveconclusion that they'd put it on DS more likely because I thought it was unlikely.

I wasn't all that surprised when I saw the announcement, however.
 

Error

Jealous of the Glory that is Johnny Depp
LOL at ethelred's post

kind of funny since he is now jizzing all over DQ9 :p
 
Dragona Akehi said:
Really though? No one expected DQIX on DS. I sure as hell didn't; I'm sure there's some embarrassing post of mine in a thread somewhere stating the same thing.

Well, as others pointed out, it's the difference between saying "nah, I don't think DQ9 will go to DS" and being so fiercely, loudly sure it wouldn't & blasting out at anyone who raised the possibility.

I'm pretty sure everyone here has done the same at some point, though (I know I have!)
 

Deku

Banned
Error2k4 said:
LOL at ethelred's post

kind of funny since he is now jizzing all over DQ9 :p

Being certain about something and being wrong, and keeping open mind about a product are not mutually exclusive. Ethelred certainly has a passion for what he's talking about and that's pretty much all that needs to be said.
 

ethelred

Member
Great Rumbler said:
I'm sure all but the most deluded were thinking the same thing. It's just that most people weren't as vocal or public or completely and utterely convinced to the point of becoming angry when anyone even raised the possibility as ethelred.

:lol

Yeah, I remember making that post. I remember just about everything I post here -- if someone wants to go digging, there are a few other gems they could find, too. I figured someone would bring this one up sooner or later.

It's true I never would've seriously expected DQIX to be on the DS, and I'll readily own up to being totally wrong there, but c'mon, the post there was deliberately exaggerated for comedic effect -- as most of the stuff I post here is. Trust me, I wasn't angry. I don't even take myself that seriously here.

Error2k4 said:
LOL at ethelred's post

kind of funny since he is now jizzing all over DQ9 :p

True. While it's not something I would've expected back in September would come to pass, that doesn't mean I've lost respect for Yuji Horii as a game designer, and it doesn't mean I'll deny the obvious quality that DQIX will be, regardless of platform.
 
Yours truly said:
I've brought it up twice. Once here, and once in the speculation thread.

And it's true that I'd like to see it happen, even if I don't believe it will. Is there a problem?


ethelred said:
In that it would be a terrible outcome for gaming, yes, that's a problem.

Um... yeah?

And no one replied to this post in that thread. I feel glimmerings of sadness.

Well, first we need to define the meaning of the word 'failure'.

Now, losing to the Wii in terms of overall sales would not be enough to consider the PS3 a failure. After all, both target different demographics, aside from the 'hardcore' which buys multiple systems anyway.

That is, of course, not assuming a DS-level success for the Wii, in which case PS3 will fade into insignificance. The same happened with the PSP. On a flat rate, it's selling well, but DS rubs it's 100K+ sales in on a weekly basis.

If the Wii really takes off, or the PS3 price starts to hold it back (also with the distinct possibility that gamers might be getting tired of the same games), then Sony will be forced to take action.

But here's the issue - Sony retains no control whatsover over Mothra - and their mind-control chips implanted in Gojira have varied results, if we're to put it in the most positive light. However, as long as they get Gojira to Tokyo, he's likely to rampage, with or without direct commands issued by Kutaragi. (Stringer would never allow himself to be implicated in such a process.)

That said, if Sony were to unleash Gojira on Japan, it is unlikely that Mothra would show up - unless one faces a threat Gojira alone will have trouble handling. (King Ghidorah perhaps, but latest reliable reports have placed him under heavy sedation in Yamauchi's basement.)

Mothra, as we know, is largely a benevolent monster (in comparison to the others, anyway). She wouldn't rampage even if she showed up, unless it played a role in some larger scheme. That said, with Gojira rampaging, it wouldn't matter much in the end process - Tokyo would still be flattened.

Of course, Mecha-Godzilla is the wild card - Miyamoto retains personal control of it, and he's rather reluctant for it to be damaged. I propose he might activate it if the situation becomes too dire, but otherwise, it'll remain inactive.

Gojira's rampages don't last terribly wrong - I'm guessing approximatey 30 Billion yen worth of damages. Enough to change the tide? Unknown - it depends on the level of PS3 failure or Wii success. (I believe we can agree XBox 360 is a nonfactor.)

That's my take on the situation, anyway.
 
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