How many Switch units do you think Nintendo will move at launch in Japan?
I've stated last week about 250k, if the cistumstances stay these ones (price, games, no megaton announcements unknow as for today, no bundle)
I actually see a decline from the previous Nintendo home console launch (that had 2D Mario, MH, Holiday boost and the Wii-push on the back)
If Zelda manages to have 90% attach ratio we'll talk for the biggest system seller since Knack.
Maybe we'll have to update this!!!!
So, people are going to buy Switch without games then?
Uhm...no?
People ain't going to buy Switch at all! ;p
I think that Zelda will obviously be the most successfull game at launch, but I also think that Swithc won't be a Wii-launch in terms of general numbers (software-wise, the Wii sold a lot of titles at launch: this means that Zelda TP had competition, more than Botw, but at the same time the general numbers were very high, so I'm not so sure that TP could have sold A LOT more without Sports/Play around, because I'm pretty sure those games helped to sell the actual Wii too, enlaring the install base instantly)
With all due respect to Marvelous, this article detailing their cost increase for DS -> 3DS would represent my assumptions about 3DS -> Switch cost increases for bottom tier developers:
http://m.ign.com/articles/2010/11/22/3ds-to-triple-ds-development-costs
I'm not expecting them to wheel out games that look like The Last of Us, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if their cost per game went from $1-$2 million to $2-$4 million to keep up with even the most minimal visual enhancements.
Are you actually expecting 100% 3DS quality art assets for Switch games outside of Pokémon and Fire Emblem?
I'm not expecting that the development costs/timings will not be affected at all, but the modern architecture, the middleware compatibility and the hybrid nature of the Switch could help in seeing the impact of the generational leap as smaller than expected.
Also because many devs already developed for PS4/Vita this gen, so just expect a 3DS to Switch leap isn't probably accurate. Basically...
All of Capcom's 3DS games (MH, AA, etc.) run on the mobile version of MT Framework, so bumping everything up to proper MT Framework for Switch wouldn't really be much of a hassle. Capcom could also be replacing everything with UE4 or RE Engine or whatever.
...also this