In Japan?
By most standards it was one of the strongest performers on a home console of the last 10 years.
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In Japan?
By most standards it was one of the strongest performers on a home console of the last 10 years.
Not sure if remaster is accurate but Dark Arisen is coming to PS4/XBO.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Yep, here is the announcement article: http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/05...k-arisen-remaster-coming-for-ps4-and-xbox-one.
Dragons dogma remaster and the new Phoenix Wright from the top of my mind.
Zack & Wiki: Switchi of course.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Don't play with Zack & Wiki's name. Don't you dare
I want a second game so bad, at least remaster the first game 
Don't play with Zack & Wiki's name. Don't you dare
I want a second game so bad, at least remaster the first game
Preaching to the choir, Gotdat. We need more Z&W in this world.
Japan only.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
I loved that game so much! Favorite part was the ice section lol.
Anyway, I think we will see some Switch Japanese third party announcements tuesday(imo).
So tell me, what was the budget for the first game? What was the budget for the 6th game? And for the DGS games? How much did they need to sell to break even? How do cost and opportunity relate in raw numbers? According to you this was discussed here, rather than just the sales numbers we get from MC, Enterbrain and Dengeki. Of course you can guess that with declining sales at some point these games won't break even anymore. Point is, you don't know when exactly.
Also you didn't name a different criterium, you just used more precise terminology.
We were just talking about Dai Gyakuten Saiban 2 for a few posts, but I guess you just missed that.
The game is a 100k+ seller easily, if you want an optimist prediction go for 200k
Eolz
Member
Damn. Good luck with that then...
Can confirm, throwing shade is easier than actually providing numbers.
Look, I rounded everything up, over-estimated multiple entries based on past performances when markets were stronger (by more than usual %-digital sales), added non-zero sums of sales to titles that have not appeared in the Top 50 for multiple weeks based on the lowest selling entry in the Top 50.
If you want to actually contribute, provide numbers and I will add them to the mathematics. If you think that titles from <FY2016 are going to provide long-term sales on a level that isn't statistical noise when considering the current figures, then please provide me with references to these long-winded Capcom titles we've seemingly never discussed.
Best Price versions of Resident Evil and Monster Hunter Games tend to sell pretty well.
Every quarter Capcom updates their million seller global sales adding a few hundred K sales from back catalogue, as seen here or here
Ok, those are worldwide numbers, so for the sake of being concerned let's think not even 20% of that is from Japan no matter what, even when Japan makes over 30% of their sales any given period and sometimes is closer to 40%, and suddenly you have around 100k per quarter, not counting back catalogue games that never reached a million to begin with, but that go on sale anyway. Because we still believe promotional discounts work, right?
Edit: I guess you don't, as you projected a whole 5000 units for RE7 in the full year, and called that generous.
Ok, those are worldwide numbers, so for the sake of being concerned let's think not even 20% of that is from Japan no matter what, even when Japan makes over 30% of their sales any given period and sometimes is closer to 40%, and suddenly you have around 100k per quarter, not counting back catalogue games that never reached a million to begin with, but that go on sale anyway. Because we still believe promotional discounts work, right?
Edit: I guess you don't, as you projected a whole 5000 units for RE7 in the full year, and called that generous.
GuessMyUserName
Member
Oh shit didn't realize Seiken Densetsu was out, I better head out to get it
That's projected, not realized, on top of what it has already done at retail. The total would be a larger sum but in the grand scheme of these numbers is 0.2%-1%. But I did actually make a mistake here in that I rounded down a bit more than I intended out of a personal mistake. I've corrected it here:
The difference is negligible. And, I still think I have greatly exaggerated the sales of MHXX-NSW which, frankly, is probably a larger over-estimation than all digital sales combined.
Due to retailer handling of shipments in Japan, over that of the publisher in NA, I would be surprised if retail has anything more than very minor differences on the back catalogue and is largely just old stock being "bomba-binned". We rarely hear of exhausted shipments nowadays in Japan, and most titles then rot away long-term unless they are extremely long-legged ever greens.
Now on the digital side, we don't really have good numbers on long-term sales or potential so its very hard to gauge how much that contributes.
Checking Dengeki any random week RE7 or MHS have been selling from 700 to 1300 units from April, and there are over 9 months left for the FY, and that's only physical. But I guess RE7 is never going to go on sale on PSN, or any other RE title, SF title or whatever capcom title for that matter.
You're still not getting my point. It's not that your RE7 or MHS estimates were/are too low. There are a sizable variety of games that are going to keep selling small amounts that added together are not negligible, be it from retail legs or small burst from digital promotions.
Meanwhile I was selling it short, and the psn sales of AC titles a few month backs were estimated around 170k units each (in a couple of weeks) and yeah, those were a upper end exception I guess, but the thing is that there are a ton of digital discounts across the year, with games going on sale multiple times, and while we don't have those numbers, Capcom does.
I can't know for sure that Capcom is going to reach their forecast, as those are made thinking that titles are not going to underperfom, but you're talking as it is a sure thing that they have no means to do so, because you took their 6-7 future releases, added their estimated sales from your perspective, and called it a go, and that's not how a publisher works.
You're still not getting my point. It's not that your RE7 or MHS estimates were/are too low. There are a sizable variety of games that are going to keep selling small amounts that added together are not negligible, be it from retail legs or small burst from digital promotions.
Meanwhile I was selling it short, and the psn sales of AC titles a few month backs were estimated around 170k units each (in a couple of weeks) and yeah, those were a upper end exception I guess, but the thing is that there are a ton of digital discounts across the year, with games going on sale multiple times, and while we don't have those numbers, Capcom does.
I can't know for sure that Capcom is going to reach their forecast, as those are made thinking that titles are not going to underperfom, but you're talking as it is a sure thing that they have no means to do so, because you took their 6-7 future releases, added their estimated sales from your perspective, and called it a go, and that's not how a publisher works.
I included these figures. Also I have updated FY numbers as I had made a very dumb mistake with regards to the future estimates. For some reason in my brain I decide to *divide* by 2 from the current FY numbers rather than *multiply* by two.
Further, I was extremely generous in off-Top 50 weeks by giving them a "sales value" equal to the lowest selling Top 50 entrant. This will in the long run almost assuredly account for unaccounted for sales elsewhere.
It should also be noted, I included all sales of MHXX in this chart, not just FY2017 so I am actually overestimating already by several hundred thousand. This is more than most of these minor titles we're arguing over will sell all year, combined.
You're showing me only an exception, we have (far as I can recall, feel free to correct me) never heard of these rather exceptional performances from any Capcom title. More over, my larger point on these "small amounts" is that they account for fractions of a percent annually on average, and in sum would be but a blip on a statistical radar.
I am *over-performing* the upcoming titles relative to past release in a healthy market, current market realities, and the state of certain genres. Is 150k for MvCI what you would consider an *under* performance? I think I am being generous there considering the current state of fighters.
I am pretty sure I am *over-performing* MHXX as well by a very, very large amount on the order of 100k or more.
Whether what I define as an over-performance is an under-performance for Capcom is yet to be seen but, frankly, if they expected more than some of these numbers then they are out of their damn minds.
Every data not publicy available is considered statistical noise that amounts to 0, or even negative because you were so generous to give RE7 20k sales on the next 9 months, and that's the correction, lol.
You've already made you mind, and it's late enough here. By next year we will be discussing who is going to buy Capcom as they file bankrupcy. Good night.
You've already made you mind, and it's late enough here. By next year we will be discussing who is going to buy Capcom as they file bankrupcy. Good night.
I mean, its doing sub-800 sales regularly and in 36 weeks thats crawling towards 30k. But that assumes that it preserves these sales or that we have a meaningful way of tracking them. The average of the data I collected was 990 skewed by holiday, but outside of holiday it was averaging ~700 (where I was at that point forced to give it "the lowest" possible sales figure from the Top 50 as it no longer appeared), meaning it could have sold even less (and the fact that they don't reappear in the Top 50 for weeks at a time, suggests that they are trending lower and lower). 700*36 is 25000, I estimated that down based on further retail decline.
This was the same logic applied to MHS, though I largely just eye-balled SFII.
Notice that we're talking about maybe 5-10k differences in my figures over the entire year, and maybe we can double or even triple that with some digital contributions. It still amounts to less, between this MHS and SFII, to much, much less than the fact that I included FY2016 numbers for MHXX in this just to skew the numbers higher. Hell, amplify all of these background sales by an order of magnitude for these titles (which is patently absurd), and you're only just barely achieving the original over-counted MHXX sales.
And, again, I for the major releases coming where the vast, vast majority of sales will actually be achieved, I have considered to be par to over-estimated across the board. These titles will be the lions share of actual sales this year.
And please, spare me the bullshit strawman.
And it is also one of Capcom big money pit as Japan itself is unable to carry Dragon Dogma numbers.
I'm going to sleep for real, but I'll try a last time:
Capcom forecast 2M RE7 sold this FY, but you think only 20 to 50k of them to be from Japan, and that's taking into account digital sales too because you don't see them going north of 5-15k across the year (or that's how I read your doubling or tripling differences comment).
Do you really think that when a publisher puts a game, let's say, 40% off on the store, or even higher than that, they do it to sell 5k units if they're lucky? And again, this is not about RE7 (that should also get a Budget/dlc included release before March, btw), it's about every game.
When they add a couple of hundred K sales to RE5, RE6, MVSC, MH or even bionic commando across a year, it's not because they're selling them on retail in NA and Europe, as your previous post suggested. Those are the real negligible numbers, and the few chains carrying them rarely need to get a new shipment. It's because they get digital promotions, and those work the same in Japan than RotW.
You keep saying how generous you are on your numbers and that they make for any game not included on your calculations, and I have a different opinion, because I don't believe Japan is this mythologic country that doesn't buy games on sale, while the rest of the world does.
Again, taking the examples I found before, as I don't see the threads for other quarters:
do you think the Japan contribution to those 'shipments' + digital is ~0? Well, I don't. Those things are going to keep happening.
Capcom forecast 2M RE7 sold this FY, but you think only 20 to 50k of them to be from Japan, and that's taking into account digital sales too because you don't see them going north of 5-15k across the year (or that's how I read your doubling or tripling differences comment).
Do you really think that when a publisher puts a game, let's say, 40% off on the store, or even higher than that, they do it to sell 5k units if they're lucky? And again, this is not about RE7 (that should also get a Budget/dlc included release before March, btw), it's about every game.
When they add a couple of hundred K sales to RE5, RE6, MVSC, MH or even bionic commando across a year, it's not because they're selling them on retail in NA and Europe, as your previous post suggested. Those are the real negligible numbers, and the few chains carrying them rarely need to get a new shipment. It's because they get digital promotions, and those work the same in Japan than RotW.
You keep saying how generous you are on your numbers and that they make for any game not included on your calculations, and I have a different opinion, because I don't believe Japan is this mythologic country that doesn't buy games on sale, while the rest of the world does.
Again, taking the examples I found before, as I don't see the threads for other quarters:
Q3 FY16 said:
Q2FY2017 said:
do you think the Japan contribution to those 'shipments' + digital is ~0? Well, I don't. Those things are going to keep happening.
I know that, and that's why I am talking mainly about digital sales for those old games. Psn charts are posted every month and games with discounts fill* the charts consistently, many times above new releases.
Unless the sales is super deep like recent EA games which hits 80% cut price, second hand market will take all the future sales.
Eh, discounts really aren't good for them, even if they are able to make up a few sales.
The numbers Capcom uses and Media Create and Famitsu uses are very different. Media Create and Famitsu numbers of course are estimates calculated by customer purchases. Capcom's numbers are however how many Capcom sold to retailers + digital sales.
It is not good if there is a big difference between those numbers. Retailers buy the game in full, and discounts are not at Capcom's discretion but the retailers'. The retailer takes the hit when doing discounts, Capcom see no more sales than what they already had. If the retailer has to discount a lot to get rid of stock, they are very unlikely to buy more stock from Capcom. If Capcom discounts a lot on PSN and that competes with retailers, retailers are less likely to do business with Capcom, especially regarding new or smaller IP. With big IP Capcom can be a bit more pushy of course. So that is to say, that it is not as beneficial for Capcom to get sales off of discount copies on PSN as you expect, and they are less likely to do it when there are lots of physical copies floating around.
The second hand market is far better for the industry than digital in Japan at least.
Lack of games is what destroys dedicated game industry.
85. [PS4] Resident Evil: Origins Collection <Resident Evil 0 HD Remaster Resident Evil HD Remaster> <ADV> (Capcom) {2016.01.21} (¥5.990) - 37.525
sold this much in half a year, how much of that 100k do you think it'll sell?
101./000. [PS4] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 # <ADV> (Capcom) {2015.03.19} (¥4.990) - 74.706 / NEW (42.358 <56,50%>
again, 1 full year to sell this amount
10./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter Frontier Z: Beginner's Package <ACT> (Capcom) {2016.11.22} (¥5.800) - 8.663 / NEW <60-80%>
100k?
digital sales are still only a fraction of physical sales, so dont expect them to make up the difference, especially in japan
capcom forecasts have been a joke for a long time now, i dont know why you insist on taking their projections as gospel when we've seen how accurate they are many times now
the only way they achieve these results with the games being released/announced is if mhw and mhxx for switch over-performs, nothing else is big enough to pick up the slack
We can probably rule out Monster Hunter World being exclusive to PS4 now that Matt confirmed it's coming to Xbox.
Maybe that 2.75 million sales for Japan will include a PS4 and Switch version of Monster Hunter World?
Of course you wonder then if Capcom is really releasing two(three?) monster hunter titles in the same year?
I think that maybe Monster Hunter World will be releasing from January 2018. It's hard to see it being released close to Monster Hunter XX for Switch even though there is a another platform.
Maybe that 2.75 million sales for Japan will include a PS4 and Switch version of Monster Hunter World?
Of course you wonder then if Capcom is really releasing two(three?) monster hunter titles in the same year?
I think that maybe Monster Hunter World will be releasing from January 2018. It's hard to see it being released close to Monster Hunter XX for Switch even though there is a another platform.
We all know how far off Capcom's estimation can be, just look at last year. Capcom is not gonna meet that 2 million goal this year. There is literally zero buzz about this game right now anywhere, and after all the bombs dropped on E3, nobody is gonna talk about the game came out in January. The game is single-player only with a much shorter campaign than the last title in the series, and it's not like RE4 that people are just gonna play over and over again. It's exactly the kind of games people would trade in. I see zero reason for a Japan customer to buy this game new instead of getting it cheap from the second-hand market. In fact, I'd be surprised if MvCI didn't also under-perform.
I still find it unbelievable that MH World might be a real thing. I guess I'm gonna have crow for lunch tomorrow. Anyway, it's never a bad thing to see a company throw big budget at a game. Hope it turns out well for them.
I still find it unbelievable that MH World might be a real thing. I guess I'm gonna have crow for lunch tomorrow. Anyway, it's never a bad thing to see a company throw big budget at a game. Hope it turns out well for them.
I'm new, who's he?
He's a developer if I remember correctly, so he knows things.
MHW is almost assuredly not releasing on Switch. No insider has even so much as suggested it, but every other platform has been.
So is there another game coming out from Capcom that will help reach that 2.75 million sales target in Japan?
If for example there wasn't, then Monster Hunter World would have to outsell the best selling title on PS4 which is FFXV at roughly 1 million sales.
Every time I try to imagine a more accessible, western focused MH I just think of Dragon's Dogma or Deep Down.
Not that I know of. I also suspect when this project was greenlit and when Capcom was initially dreaming up it's expectations, the PS4 hadn't given up the ghost of potential.