DQXI in December is perfect, and put both Xeno2 and FE Warriors in November
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I have to assume shipments are going to start increasing next month- from July 21 through October the lineup looks like this (with always the possibility of other titles, like physical Minecraft):
7/21- Splatoon 2
8/25- MH XX
9/21- DQ X
9/22- Pokken
9/28- FE Warriors
10/27- Mario Odyssey
That's a pretty stacked 3 months- Nintendo will be giving away more than just hardware sales if they do not have a better supply for that stretch.
Lol unless you're counting some form of streaming on mobile or the death of AAA Japanese game that isn't further from the truth. If anything with the loss of Sony portables we are going to see a higher percentage games only playable at home.
Won't make home consoles any less niche in Japan. Any AAA effort will have to sell the majority in the West.
Ahh yes, I slightly misread what you were saying. I think that's already the case though, even midtier games are now aimed primarily at western markets.
SE probably isn't happy either, when they go to the store next time and show them their next product and say "So can I put you down for X copies" the store will say "Let's make that 70% of X".
This is wrong, as far as I know. In Japan there is back financing and back buying for overshipped copies as far as I remember. Square itself previously was hit financially because they overshipped FFXIII 2
Which is why it's great being a PC gamer because of how many niche Japanese games you can find on Steam now.
(Except for when those developers don't put in options specific to PC such as allowing you to change the rendering resolution like in Dark Souls 1 for example.)
While that approach is common in the West it's traditionally not the case in Japan. (Which is why preorders are of high importance in Japan, shipment is based on store orders, and store orders again on customer preorders unless it's a big name.) So it has to be case by case there, do we know SE did the same with FFXV? Them buying back some copies would explain why FFXV's price only dropped slowly instead like a rock despite the clear overshipping.
Afaik backordering doesn't exist in Japan. Retailers are entirely responsible for their stock which is why you see overshipped games drop in price so quickly.
We can have good guesses for November-December since Nintendo won't reveal anything major and Mario x Rabbids will be a 2018 title.
Xenoblade 2
Minecraft retail
Mario & Sonic
Dragon Quest XI
Maybe there will be smaller releases but as far as titles that will cross 100k that's as far as it can go.
Retailers pay the price of overshipping for eveything since ever.
Yeah, this behavior is in all sorts of sales in Japan too. Companies that are selling their goods that are not manufactured by part of the conglomerate that owns the store frequently send people to various stores to count stock to know how well a product is selling there and adjust their sales target accordingly.
Yeah I'm really thinking DQXI might be the big December game.
I would also add the 2 Namco games could be 100K titles if they are out this year (Tales of Port and Taiko Drum)
Eolz
Member
This.
But good luck on that, since I doubt that X1 will bring many sales WW, there's no crossplay at all, and the west will have to compensate on the lack of japanese sales...
As others pointed out, Japan is getting XX Switch (unlike the west), compatible with 3DS online. And it'll surely get more there (unlike the west).
Could be.
That's weird that they still haven't announced what the Tales of game will be since it's supposed to relase this FY.
If its a quick port it could easily be a quick August announcement/November release type of thing. Doubt its anything too hypable.
Eolz
Member
Oh yeah, I doubt that as well, I'm just surprised they haven't just made a press release already, or something like for Xenoverse 2, since they should have already chosen the game to port by now.
Will DQXI Switch even be big by Nintendo standards?
Anyone who wants to play the game with nice graphics will get the PS4 version, anyone who wants to play it portably will get the 3DS version.
Yeah but only Duckroll cares about a new version of Phantasia.
Anyone who wants to play the game with nice graphics will get the PS4 version, anyone who wants to play it portably will get the 3DS version.
Yeah but only Duckroll cares about a new version of Phantasia.
I doubt it will sell a million copies or anything but yes, I think it would still be a significant release- both for switch userbase and anyone wanting to play PS4 version portably.
SporeCrawler
Member
but what about those who want it portably and with nice graphics...
yeah it will do a couple of hundred thousands though
in the very long run it may even outsell the ps4 version, if it actually is a good port
I would wait for the reveal first, SE had said they want to deliver a diiferent version from 3DS and PS4.
They did? That would be interesting. Just seems unlikely they would be able to do anything more than a competent port if its coming out relatively soon.
wait, what? Are they insane? They are going to make completely three different versions out of it. But if the switch is a different version then what's it going to be?A cel-shaded Dragon Quest XI?
Not even close to possible. If they release simultaneously maybe.
Still UE4 but everything is Chibi because it works better on a small screen/is a better fit for a Nintendo audience.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Unless they really plan to redo the graphics again or they are speaking of a remix version I find it difficult to believe it isn't going to to a PS4 port.
Yeah maybe some ultimate collection with all versions but even that seems highly unrealistic.
Laplasakos
Member
If Dragon Quest XI Switch is a different experience from PS4/3DS i am not sure it will be ready by December. I mean they have 2 teams working on the versions right now, how fast can one of the teams have ready a different version in 6 months? There is a chance that there is a third team working on it but having 3 teams seems a little bit too much.
Yeah I agree.
Do you know the differences of Switch version and when development started?
Gotdatmoney
Member
I could see them cramming both versions onto the Switch and releasing it later but that isn't gonna be December then.
Laplasakos
Member
No i am just speculating. Am i allowed to do that or not?
I'd be surprised if it comes out this year. My guess is that there's some sort of Sony console exclusivity going on so they have to wait for that to expire before they can really talk about the NS version. I wouldn't even be shocked if it gets quietly canceled at some point. Either way, I wonder what kind of appeal the game will have so many months after the game has been released. I don't think it's going to sell well unless they do something amazing with it.
They'll revamp the story so that all spoilers no longer work and everybody has to double dip. =P
Oh come on. Let's try and be at least reasonably pessimistic instead of "DOOM" constantly. Nintendo/SE isn't going to "quietly cancel" a game like DQXI that has been in the works for years already. Cancellations make sense when a system is failing. Not when its succeeding.
Cancellations happen all the time for many reasons. I don't think the game will get canceled, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. We also don't know how long the game has been in development or how far along it is currently. What kind of sales potential does this game have being released after the main versions?
Gotdatmoney
Member
The appeal would be the great graphics of the PS4 version on a system people actually want. The game wont be cancelled, if SE can port games to the Switch they will because it's in their benefit to have handheld versions of their console efforts. It helps expand user base while hitting big platforms with the same big budget games spreading the risk. The game will do decent when it launches. The issue is SE's normal issue of announcing games way too early.
We don't know when this game releases and how same or different is with PS4/3DS versions. How can you expect anyone to give sales potential except SE. When the reveal becomes we'll get a first idea, until then everything is blind guess.
or Minna de Wai Wai! SpelunkerYou could say that Square Enix determined Switch support with the sales of I am Setsuna.
Eolz
Member
S-E will want all the money they can get from DQXI. Even if the Switch gets a quick cheap PS4 port (which it likely will), they won't cancel it.
They're just likely not working much on it since the main versions are coming out next month and they're still in full crunch mode. Not sure why some people are worried (unless it's fake concern?).
They're just likely not working much on it since the main versions are coming out next month and they're still in full crunch mode. Not sure why some people are worried (unless it's fake concern?).
Square Enix does not cancel games, they simply ignore they even ever said they would make the game.
Impossible, Switch is destined to not receive support from Japanese third parties as the past few months of low sales everywhere and for games like Bomberman and Seiken Densetsu Collection showed. No improvement can happen, its destiny has been already sealed not even 4 months in, what a shame.
I don't even understand why the DQXI's cancellation hypotesis comes up in the first place
Maybe DQXI Switch will release alongside The Last Remnant PS3.
You are assuming everyone owns a PS4, which couldn't be further from truth. Switch will surely surpass PS4 before next June (that's when I think it will be released).
Also, are we now taking the ToP port joke as truth? With how well Switch is performing?
That's true, but looking at rereleases of RPGs, how well do they do generally? That's what this is gonna be...basically. Unless they change up the game drastically, which I don't see happening. Maybe next year they'll release the game again on the NS, but by then will people care? Unless they do something amazing with this, I don't think anyone expects it to sell more than the PS4 or DS versions individually.
Calm Mind
Member
I think it will do well just not as well as initially thought. The one thing it does have going for it over MHW is that it can be played locally. One of the true strengths behind MH success.
Well..yeah. No one expects that.
So what would really be the point of this version? I'm asking seriously. It's sales potential is gimped and unless they're trying to milk everything they can out of this game, what's the point?
Really now? It's 1m+ or death?