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[Hoo-doo]

Wait, XBO and 360 combined?

Yeesh, how many of these things are on shelves?

 

[Katze mit Hut]

Still decent numbers for a watercooler.

And here the thread took a wrong turn. Bye.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Last Quarter 360 shipped 800,000 units. There is usually a drop in shipments between Jan-Mar quarter and the Apr-Jun quarter. Last year that drop was 23%. If MS had a similar drop this year then the 360 shipped 616,000 units. So X1 with those numbers shipped 484,000 units.

That sounds like a very reasonable approach to estimate XB1 shipped numbers for April to June

Not particularly promising then

 

[RibMan]

Horrific numbers. It was clear that the Xbox One was struggling, but if the combined shipments of both the X1 and 360 are less than 1.5M worldwide then something big needs to happen and it needs to happen fast.

 

[Guevara]

The Black Friday bundles are going to be out of control

 

[BananaSprinkles]

So Sony could be 2:1 world wide? Or am I wrong?

It's probably pretty close, but I doubt it's actually at 2:1, though my math might be a bit off.

Sony: 7 million PS4s sold to customers as of April 6th. 2.9 million of those = US sales.

2.9 / 7.0 = .41 (41% of PS4 sales occurred in the US)

665k units sold in the US during April - June.

665k / .41 = 1622k

7000 + 1622 = 8622 (or 8.6~ million)

Microsoft: 3 million XB1s sold to customers in 2013. 1.8 million of those = US sales.

1.8 / 3.0 = .60 (60% of XB1 sales occurred in the US)

1101k units sold in the US YTD (2014)

1101k / .6 = 1835k

3000 + 1835 = 4835 (or 4.8~ million)

Edit: The above is an estimate. I'm not trying to claim it as fact.

 

[SerTapTap]

As a MSFT shareholder, I would definitely pull the plug on the Xbox console project and focus on mobile (high margins, growing segment)/PC gaming (complements their core products).

Would love to see more focus on PC gaming. Most of their in-use IPs would work very well on PC. They'd have to bail on Kinect but...yeah they seem to already be doing so. Heck they could go PC AND Xbox and I don't think they'd cannibalize sales too badly, and it'd help raise their margins on software to compensate for lost hardware/third party sales.

I hope Surface/the devices division in general doesn't get the axe. Love my SP3. There are dozens of us.

 

[Amir0x]

The forum is even shittier than the main site.

It's amazing, there's still people who try to find some way to defend aspects of that miserable, atrocious banned site - which is banned for a reason. Anyone who is into sales even remotely understands why. I find it hilarious.

 

[Duxxy3]

And this is why i doubt that they'll be able to introduce a white XBO bundle for SO, there are still lots of unsold units on store shelves... even day one units.

A Halo theme Xbox would sell. A custom console for Sunset Overdrive... I think that's a bad idea.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Damn, the Xbone deal in the holidays are going to be fucking CRAZY!

I expect Kinectless Xbone. With MCC. A year of gold. Possibly another game as well, Like Forza and Ryse.

Maybe a retailer drop of $50 as well.

 

[ethomaz]

Why are you advertising a banned site? What's your agenda?

Because I guess he thinks the talk about sales there is more reasonable than here but that is not the case all the time (I was a 2007 member there).

There are some reasonable guys talking about sales in the forum like there are some here but in both have some bad guys talking shit too... the forum there is lovely to make friends and talk about sales without use the own site sales "tracking" (the site estimate are really bad).... I prefer the GAF community to talk about anything but sometimes here get crazy fast to follow the conversation .... the other forum you have more time to talk slowly.

But GAF estimates made in NPD prediction thread was really on spot with shipment and put the sales to consumers below 5 million and probable close to 4.7-4.8m.

Bad shipment no matter how anybody try to spin... they overshipped last quarter.

PS. Don't hate the community because the Site inaccuracy .

 

[s3ltzer]

things are looking very bad for the XBO. price need to be a $349 (max) for the Kinectless-SKU. the problem with this is that Sony alleges that the PS4 is already profitable, so this means that if MS does an official price cut, then Sony will follow as well. things would be back to square one.

also, if the xbox one has its first official price cut this early into the 8th gen, then it will send a message of "probably failure" to MS investors. not good either.

damned if you don't, damned if you do.

 

[wrowa]

If only some of you guys would visit the forum at a certain banned site, instead of thinking of the site as a whole, you wouldn't be surprised by this news at all. Forget the main site, the guys over there are pretty savvy when it comes to reality.

These numbers don't surprise me at all.

And before I get the usual reply: FORUM, not, SITE.

I don't think that Sales Agers are surprised either, it's just that this kind of thread usually attracts people who don't follow sales closely normally.

 

[Toki767]

They really do just need to drop the price by $100 (debatably what they should have done with Kinect included) and just hope to make up that price drop through accessories and royalties.

It's just one of those moves that they have to try to hopefully make it up in the long run rather than waiting until they can still profit after $100 off.

 

[kinoki]

So, basicly Microsoft shipped Kinect-less SKUs? Am I getting that right? If it hadn't been for the Kinect-less bundle the amount shipped would be decreased to near nothing, or? How will their Q1 look?

 

[Xando]

They need to be at $349, or heavily bundled. $399 kinectless bundle still isn't the best value. $399 with Titanfall and Forza 5... ok, now we're talking. It's the same bundle they are giving to japan - that's the bundle they should be pushing worldwide.

Its already 369€ in some places here in Germany and still not selling good. At this point i think the only chance they have is 299€ with 1-3 games like someone said above.

 

[TrafalgarLaw]

And here the thread took a wrong turn. Bye.

Not my marketing slogan.

 

[Sky Chief]

News like this makes it hard to jump in. I keep thinking "well, what else will they sweeten the pot with?" Hell, by Christmas I might be able to get one for $400 with Kinect and like 3 games or some shit.

I'm in the same boat, some of the announced games really interest me and I just feel that by the time they come out the deals will be even better.

 

[ShogunDarius]

maybe if MS didnt do such a clusterfuck last year with their decisions and PR and the console was priced better things could have been different.
It also wouldnt hurt for MS to stop paying for delaying DLC on other formats and actually create new ip and make their own first party games, because first party is the real differentiator when it comes to consoles and MS have the worst first party of the 3.

 

[TomShoe]

So yeah I agree. But I also think Sunset Overdrive might surprise us. Just a feeling I have.

I have a feeling it'll get blown out of proportion.

 

[Amir0x]

So, basicly Microsoft shipped Kinect-less SKUs? Am I getting that right? If it hadn't been for the Kinect-less bundle the amount shipped would be decreased to near nothing, or? How will their Q1 look?

Well, not sure if this is accurate cause I haven't looked that deeply into the numbers in that regard yet, but if it were, it wouldn't be terribly surprising. They had tons of units already shitting on shelves and not selling particularly fast. So they wouldn't need to add to that stockpile.

I have a feeling it'll get blown out of proportion.

I dunno, even though it has been well received by most gaming communities online, I haven't seen the type of sycophantic overhype as I did for Titanfall. I think it'll be fairly judged. Only question is whether it will sell, given its bright color palette and off-kilter gameplay. I personally think it looks very attractive and is one of the more appealing games coming to either system this holiday season, but I would not bet money on it being a big game. I just sort of feel it is going to be bigger than most people think. Just like I felt Titanfall was going to be smaller than most people thought.

 

[Windom Earle]

While the thing is still somewhat selling in the US, worldwide numbers must be catastrophic.

 

[Dragonborn]

It's probably pretty close, but I doubt it's actually at 2:1, though my math might be a bit off.

The X1 foreign share has likely shrunken since release on account of it being pretty much dead outside the UK.

 

[Dragon Puncher]

Sounds like it's between 400-600 shipped, based on what we know of the 360 sales.. That seems really bad for a console that's not even a year old and had a semi price drop in june.

Are there any educated guesses as to what ps4 sold in the same timeframe?

 

[jaypah]

Yup, I'm waiting for an MCC $299 Black Friday bundle.

I can actually see something close to that happening. Hot damn they fucked this all up.

 

[DieH@rd]

Sounds to me like they channel stuffed those Kinect SKUs last quarter, and now they're waiting before throwing a load more into stores.
I expect MS will see some good numbers during the holiday season.

They still had to restock the Kinectless SKU across all supported territories...

 

[eddfromtheriver]

How is this good stuff is beyond me...

He is just very optimistic about the XBO and is always able to find a silver lining, or so i've noticed, not that there's anything wrong with that though.

 

[BKK]

X360 Shipments:

   2013 2014
Q1  1.7  1.2 -29%
Q2  5.9  3.5 -41%
Q3  1.3  0.8 -38%
Q4  1.0  ??? -??%

If X360 continued the YoY decline of ~40% that would put it at ~0.6m this quarter, leaving ~0.5m for X1.

 

[Aquamarine]

So, basicly Microsoft shipped Kinect-less SKUs? Am I getting that right? If it hadn't been for the Kinect-less bundle the amount shipped would be decreased to near nothing, or? How will their Q1 look?

Xbox One shipments are low because Kinect-less demand isn't all that high after an initial spike. I'm sure it's lower than what Microsoft had hoped for, especially since Xbox One continues to trail the PS4.

For example, in the USA last month only 55% of Xbox One hardware sales were from the new Kinect-less SKU launch.

This has less initial pull than the Titanfall SKU (70% of Xbox One hardware sales in March were from the Titanfall SKU).

 

[Chobel]

Well, not sure if this is accurate cause I haven't looked that deeply into the numbers in that regard yet, but if it were, it wouldn't be terribly surprising. They had tons of units already shitting on shelves and not selling particularly fast. So they wouldn't need to add to that stockpile.

No wonder no one buys them.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

I don't think that Sales Agers are surprised either, it's just that this kind of thread usually attracts people who don't follow sales closely normally.

Yeah, maybe you're right on that one, we do have thousands more members. I just wish we could actually embrace what the 'people' over there say (who give the site hell every week).

 

[QaaQer]

They still can do OK with a killer slew of games in America, as long as they keep price parity.

Are Gears/Halo/Forza/Sunset Overdrive enough? If not, where are the games going to come from?

 

[MrMatt555]

Is it wrong if I feel like the master chief collection is going to come out and put all the naysayers to bed?
I mean, surely that should drive some sales

 

[vpance]

But if they do have a sensible plan in place, they could profit off it a bit and come out at least with their necks in place ya know?

They might, but there's still the matter of opportunity costs though. And I don't think certain groups at MS would be happy at the prospect of just getting out by the skin of their teeth with a small profit after 3 generations of dumping billions into Xbox.

 

[ICPEE]

In this case it would mean "good" which is not the case here

Lol, when i read that comment i immediately thought of this scene from Armageddon

 

[Graphics Horse]

So, basicly Microsoft shipped Kinect-less SKUs? Am I getting that right? If it hadn't been for the Kinect-less bundle the amount shipped would be decreased to near nothing, or? How will their Q1 look?

That's my assumption. Q1 shipment should be similar to sellthrough of this quarter, maybe 500k?

edited because my first answer didn't make sense.

 

[USC-fan]

If only some of you guys would visit the forum at a certain banned site, instead of thinking of the site as a whole, you wouldn't be surprised by this news at all. Forget the main site, the guys over there are pretty savvy when it comes to reality.

These numbers don't surprise me at all.

And before I get the usual reply: FORUM, not, SITE.

I say the samething about misterxmedia.

Comment section is pure gold!

 

[Dragonborn]

Is it wrong if I feel like the master chief collection is going to come out and out all the naysayers to bed?

No, but I don't see that happening. The MCC will sell a ton, probably with a good attach rate, but it's not going to do wonders for hardware sales. What will is bundles and price cut promotions over the Holidays. The MCC alone won't turn things around.

 

[Ushojax]

You know things are bad when they won't breakdown the numbers by platform.

 

[Mpl90]

Seriously, if it goes on like this, they should seriously start considering Live fees being not mandatory anymore, i.e. free online multiplayer for those who don't want to pay. That would help a lot sales in the long run, IMHO.

But it'd be not fiesable economically, I fear.

 

[Duxxy3]

Xbox One shipments are low because Kinect-less demand isn't all that high after an initial spike. I'm sure it's lower than what Microsoft had hoped for, especially since Xbox One continues to trail the PS4.

For example, in the USA last month only 55% of Xbox One hardware sales was from the new Kinect-less SKU launch.

This has less initial pull than the Titanfall SKU (70% of Xbox One hardware sales in March were from the Titanfall SKU).

There's only three weeks on kinect-less demand in this time frame. That is not nearly enough time to get any real information, especially as we don't know how much was shipped and when, we just have one number for three months.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

God damn it, MS. Now I will never be able to update this graph. :/

It would be nice if you had a "updated as of (date)" portion on there.

 

[Handy Fake]

... really do to change how badly they're getting clompled in Europe, and of course Japan is dead for Sony, it's going to be super dead for Microsoft. The only place Microsoft can gain ground is in the USA, and even in the month of their biggest game (and one of the most marketed games I've ever seen in ...

Word of the Day, right there.

 

[MrMatt555]

Word of the Day, right there.

Very smart. Much grammar

 

[Katze mit Hut]

Not my marketing slogan.

My bad, got that wrong!

 

[Zophar]

Not surprising at all. The stack of Xbone consoles piled up here in Nebraska Furniture Mart has been there since January. When the Kinectless SKU hit it just made the pile bigger.

It's just not a product the market wants. I want to say compelling software would make a difference but if Titanfall couldn't bring in customers I don't know what could.

 

[Kosma]

Sega GT/JSRF/Halo/Splinter Cell with mine. Cracking deal at the time.

Same here man, amazing bundle!

If they pulled something like that id be game again maybe.

Rise/Forza/Titanfall/Watch Dogs?

 

[Raist]

MS does have a great fall though.

Sure looks like it does

 

[JaggedSac]

Like everyone knows, there's no chance Microsoft can reach first, so it's a battle for how well they do in second. They still can do OK with a killer slew of games in America, as long as they keep price parity. And they do have a compelling lineup in the future, so I think it'll be a good second place system. Maybe 50 million by the end? I'm just throwing out a random prediction here, haven't really calculated any projections based on current trajectories or anything

Now that the price has dropped and Microsoft is going to have its comparatively impressive Holiday season of games, I think they'll do better going forward. Relatively speaking, anyway. Next year I mean.

Yep

 

[SwiftDeath]

Is it wrong if I feel like the master chief collection is going to come out and put all the naysayers to bed?
I mean, surely that should drive some sales

It seems improbable but I'd never wish to tell someone how to feel. MCC will almost certainly have a positive effect though but to have a significant change on XB1's sales trajectory? Seems unlikely