Grampa Simpson
Banned
I call it as I see it, and I see it as a system that won't break bank. This is a 2012 prediction. Scale up slightly for a 2013 prediction.Log4Girlz said:Get those Wii HD specs out of here lol
I call it as I see it, and I see it as a system that won't break bank. This is a 2012 prediction. Scale up slightly for a 2013 prediction.Log4Girlz said:Get those Wii HD specs out of here lol
BMF said:I call it as I see it, and I see it as a system that won't break bank. This is a 2012 prediction. Scale up slightly for a 2013 prediction.
The Entertainment and devices division just had to eat the losses from the WP7 launch along with the constant losses that Zune gives, NVM the 500M allocated for Kinect marketing. It is incredibly hard to get an estimate of how much the Xbox is really netting MS, but the only thing clear is that it is the only profitable business in that division.Zabka said:Really?
BMF said:I call it as I see it, and I see it as a system that won't break bank. This is a 2012 prediction. Scale up slightly for a 2013 prediction.
I see three ways to take it.Log4Girlz said:You're breaking my heart.
It would take me weeks to stop laughing if this happened.Iced_Eagle said:The price is another tricky guess. MS wants to subsidize it as much as possible, but the possible addition of a motion controller may make this higher than the X360.
I would imagine $400-$500, though I'm sure MS will aggressively try to get this down to X360 launch prices of $300-$400 since it worked out well against Sony.
BMF said:It would take me weeks to stop laughing if this happened.
The PS3 had a huge backlash for doing so. They were hitting sub-100k months during the year after launch. Not only that, but it was so subsidized that they wiped out all the profits that they made during the PS2 generation.Iced_Eagle said:It's totally not even far-fetched dude.
You do know that the PS3 launched at $500 and $600, right?
$400-500 is a bit more expensive than what the X360 launched at, but you need to realize that it's not that bad considering you're going to be using the thing for about 10 years (and it's obviously going to have way better tech, and possibly a motion controller built-in).
Consider that holographic discs and optical interconnections can make a console obsolete, a single year could mean a decade's worth of difference in terms of graphics and physics. Being first could net you a big loss in the coming generation.Orlics said:2014? Shit. I'll be midway through my 20s...
Ultima ratio regum said:Consider that holographic discs and optical interconnections can make a console obsolete, a single year could mean a decade's worth of difference in terms of graphics and physics. Being first could net you a big loss in the coming generation.
As an artist I disagree.ThoseDeafMutes said:Nope.
Arguably the rate of power increase is slowing, but more than that, each generation's visual gap is smaller than the last as we approach photorealism and you have to invest more and more power to get increasingly small visually perceptible differences. This generation to next generation will not be as big a boost as the gap between the last, which was in turn smaller than the gap between PS1/N64 and PS2/GC/XBOX.
BMF said:I see three ways to take it.
1. Graphics Whore (your prediction basically)
2. PS360 plus - This is the one where we say that the blockbuster game needs to be kept at a certain level and not too much higher. We're already at the point where a flopped blockbuster can ruin a studio and a string of them can kill Eidos and Midway. Raising the minimum expectation would probably amplify this effect.
3. Sit and wait. New consoles in 2017. Let the software makers keep making software and see who survives. Then we can start the cycle again. I expect that all three manufacturers have considered doing this. If all three were at even keel on 3rd party support, they may have very well done this.
I don't think Nintendo has a method to expand the market again like they did this time - at least not something that isn't derivative of what they've already done. They're watching 3rd party support tilt further and further in favor of the PS360, and they're wondering if maybe they'd like a slice of that pie. They think that they can bring their new audience with them into the PS360 generation, and because of this they'll launch a machine a little bit better (2x-3x) than the PS360 in 2012. They're making some very selective bets here. They know this might backfire, but at the same time they know that they can still ride a lot of the momentum that they gained with the Wii, and they don't think that Sony and MS have any decent cards to play for at least a year or two after.
Ultima ratio regum said:As an artist I disagree.
Realtime can look better than hollywood cg, even given a good canvas which is memory. Holographic discs have the necessary bandwidth and storage to allow people like carmack to shine.
Give John D. Carmack and similarly skilled people holographic storage, and you will see the full power of photorealism in real time.
Memory is the basis of intelligence, the heart of evolution, and the piece of pie, it is the basis of all. The heart of life, dna, is a molecular tape storing memory, that is the essence of life.
That's what I said while playing E.T. for the Atari in '82 and boy was I wrong!ThoseDeafMutes said:Nope.
Arguably the rate of power increase is slowing, but more than that, each generation's visual gap is smaller than the last as we approach photorealism and you have to invest more and more power to get increasingly small visually perceptible differences. This generation to next generation will not be as big a boost as the gap between the last.
McHuj said:I don't believe that MS will go with a xbox360 1.5 because I think MS likes how the current one turned out.
If MS didn't put out a powerful system, it wouldn't be selling as well as it is today nor in another couple years. It be very dated now an in need of an appropriate successor now as well.
Both MS and Sony, can sell these consoles for another 4 five years at lower and lower price points. They truly will be have around 10 year life spans. That simply wouldn't be possible for a 1.5 version of the system. If MS goes with a small upgrade, they'll have to refresh sooner.
I really hope they go all out and bring a console out in 2012/2013. That will be the right time for the early adopters to eat up an expensive console ($400) while they still can sell the xbox360 to the mainstream at a low price.
Last time, MS was losing money on both the x360 and the original at the launch of the x360. Now, their in much better position to buffer any expense and subsidies they might need for the successor to the 360.
Deputy Moonman said:That's what I said while playing E.T. for the Atari in '82 and boy was I wrong!
As an artist I disagree.
Realtime can look better than hollywood cg, even given a good canvas which is memory. Holographic discs have the necessary bandwidth and storage to allow people like carmack to shine.
Give John D. Carmack and similarly skilled people holographic storage, and you will see the full power of photorealism in real time.
M.I.S. said:It's selling well to casuals due to a certain motion detection camera. Powerful hardware has very little to do with that.
Ultima ratio regum said:As an artist I disagree.
Realtime can look better than hollywood cg, even given a good canvas which is memory. Holographic discs have the necessary bandwidth and storage to allow people like carmack to shine.
Give John D. Carmack and similarly skilled people holographic storage, and you will see the full power of photorealism in real time.
Memory is the basis of intelligence, the heart of evolution, and the piece of pie, it is the basis of all. The heart of life, dna, is a molecular tape storing memory, that is the essence of life.
Ultima ratio regum said:My opinion as professional coder and artist:
If a console has holographic discs and another doesn't, one gets photorealism and the other gets some approximation.
Ultima ratio regum said:As an artist I disagree.
Realtime can look better than hollywood cg, even given a good canvas which is memory. Holographic discs have the necessary bandwidth and storage to allow people like carmack to shine.
Give John D. Carmack and similarly skilled people holographic storage, and you will see the full power of photorealism in real time.
Memory is the basis of intelligence, the heart of evolution, and the piece of pie, it is the basis of all. The heart of life, dna, is a molecular tape storing memory, that is the essence of life.
Cyborg said:Nvidia Maxwell looks fcking powerful...
They're just as capable as they were at the start of the generation.Curufinwe said:Actually, they're creaking at the seams, barely able to do 720p 30fps in a lot of cases.
Curufinwe said:Actually, they're creaking at the seams, barely able to do 720p 30fps in a lot of cases.
H_Prestige said:These systems are perfectly capable of delivering full 1080p and 60fps.
H_Prestige said:These systems are perfectly capable of delivering full 1080p and 60fps.
BMF said:They're just as capable as they were at the start of the generation.
StevieP said:Yes, but the graphics engines being thrown at them are trying to do more with... well, not enough juice.
StevieP said:Yes, but the graphics engines being thrown at them are trying to do more with... well, not enough juice.
Then why do so few games perform at that level?
Curufinwe said:So what you really meant was, if they drastically simplify a game's graphics to the extent that the market wouldn't be interested in the game, the PS3 and 360 can do 1080p and 60 fps.
Curufinwe said:No, did I say that somewhere in this thread?
Any console released by MS or Sony in Fall 2012 or later is obviously going to have a much easier time of running games at 1080p 60fps than the PS3 or 360. And the 1080p standard is going to be around for a long time to come as adoption of even higher resolution TVs is going to be very slow.
H_Prestige said:What do you think they will have to do to achieve 1080p and 60fps on next gen system? Do you think they will reach that performance while still delivering graphics like that new unreal engine demo?
Gorgon said:No, but with that performance games will still have better graphics than they have now. No one is realisticaly expecting the power of 3 ultra-high end PC GPUs in SLI in the next batch from MS/Sony. But even a single of those will be enough to get BOTH better graphics than now at 1080p@60fps, and that's the whole point. Heck, I can get it with my factory overcloked 8800GTS bought in early 2007.
H_Prestige said:Yes, as long as you don't increase the graphical complexity. That's my point.
And there is no 1080p standard for video games. Devs can do whatever they want, even sub-720p. There are no rules as to how to use a console's power.
H_Prestige said:All it will take is one 720p game that is pushing a bazillion polygons and 10,000 light sources and suddenly 360 games, even in full 1080p, will start to look too simple. Why don't ps3 and 360 devs just take ps2/wii level graphics and run them at max performance? Because after seeing stuff like uncharted, killzone, and gears, those graphics look too basic even in super high res.
Any new console is going to have a fixed spec. If you push the visuals too far, you have to make concessions with performance.
The devs don't care about performance and image quality as much as other things. Their priorities are not going to change next gen.
H_Prestige said:Yes, as long as you don't increase the graphical complexity.
Gorgon said:You don't know what GPU will be there, so you can't say that to have 1080p the graphics have to remain the same. As I said, my GPU was bought in 2007 and still delivers 1080p and better graphics than any game on console. It's pretty much certain a console in 2013 will easily do the same unless they want a 10 bucks chip in there.
108¨p will most certainly be standard because it will be the norm in TVs AND because that's what the core consumer wants. MS/Sony ins't Nintendo, and the core consumer is what dictates sucess or failure for these systems.
Curufinwe said:False. You can still have a significant increase in graphical complexity as well as 1080p 60fps when there will be seven years worth of technical improvement between console generations.
H_Prestige said:It doesn't matter what the GPU is. It could be the most powerful GPU known to man. It will still have a limit. There will always be a fixed pool of power and there will always be trade offs and devs will always be able to prioritize other things over resolution and framerate, just like they do now. As I've said a few times, ps3 and 360 devs can design their games to be full 1080p and 60fps if they want to. There actually are such games out there too, so it is not a technical problem. It is a design choice.
And you can have an even more significant increase in graphical complexity if you sacrifice 1080p 60fps.
H_Prestige said:Fair enough. For all I know you probably can increase the graphics a bit while also going for 1080p. My only point was if that devs are happy butchering framerate and resolution over prettier graphics this gen, no reason to assume they won't next gen either.
How much of a graphical leap was the 360 over a ps2, and how much better would a next gen system realistically be than the current systems? Given size and thermal constraints, they can't put 200W GPU in. It would probably be the equivalent of a low-mid end modern GPU.