If Vita was a strong product, it would indeed sell. Truth is, the Vita has no real identity on top of that as well. They are all fine games but none of them screams killer app.
The sole problem the 3DS had was that it was too expensive in combination with a weak launch lineup. But buying a 3DS in anticipation of great software wasn't a bad decision. Nintendo's support never let handhelds down and everyone could guess that an upcoming Pokemon, Mario Kart or Mario platform game would skyrocket its appeal regardless.
In case of the Vita this is much less sure. Sony has no single franchise that would sell like those games mentioned above. No, also not GT and no Uncharted as well. A pricedrop would probably move more systems but it would eventually run dry because of the software not having legs. The next games I'm looking into buying are Gravity and Resistance, but I'm willing to bet that the results of those won't propel above niche.
I'm also wondering if gamers would really run to the store to buy CoD for Vita? Given that the CoD crowd must be HD console gamers...
It is interesting that the problems Vita is experiencing right now are fundamentally not too different compared to the problems 3DS had last year, i.e. price and games.
Sony in the first place needs to figure out what they want to do with their system. As simple as it could sound, you can't send a handheld to the market without supporting it with a believable line-up. What I'm mostly concerned especially is that - outside the fact that the launch-line up was diversified, but without killer-apps - and that's common belief here on GAF - Sony doesn't seem to have a long term strategy with their system. Failing at launch for tight schedule is not something who rarely happens. Even Nintendo is expert at missing this opportunity regularly. But failing in the medium term is something more unusual.
Nintendo, on the other hand, got a picture of the situation quite fast and acted consequently: they dropped the price like a rock and brought the explosive duo Mario Kart and Mario Land. Additionally, they made agreement with Capcom to bring out at the right moment Monster Hunter 3G. A perfect storm indeed. Especially in Japan.
Back to Sony's problem, again - I agree on this subject that a merely price cut would partly help the system - it would make for instance the system more competitive - , but wouldn't solve all the problems of course. Vita needs games AND a price cut and just the combination of both factors can make the difference. Again, like 3DS last year indeed. But now that the Monster Hunter franchise migrated on 3DS things are getting even more difficult. Sony needs a killer-app and unfortunately they can't compensate with some first party output since it never was a top priority for Sony with PSP. They didn't need it in fact, since third party support was the key for PSP and before, for PS2 and PS.
With PSP, Sony was able to find such a killer app - but let's face it - it was quite fortunate - and less of a planned result. Though it has to be said that outside Monster Hunter - which surprised everyone - Sony launched a system that had foresaw lot of third party support.
What I mean with that is that at PSP's launch and beyond one could see they had a strategy for supporting the handheld in the long term.
But again - and this is surprising - Sony with Vita is not convincing at this stage and, new thing, they are not persuasive enough to lure third party games backing the handheld - a factor that was way different with PSP and that eventually made the difference. Especially in Japan.
Becoming successful worldwide will be extremely difficult. Even Nintendo is facing big challenges in US and EU markets, due to the changes of tastes of the mass market in favor of facebook and smartphones. But at least they're trying and they're trying hard. And things got better than before, preventing thus the handheld to fail completely. Lot of games are foresaw and quite a lot of third party games - though in the west we'll rely for now on Iwata's word till E3. Exclusives like Monster Hunter 3G and 4 are coming now to 3DS and all big franchises that made the difference on DS are getting a sequel. These sequels already are out, or are coming this fall/early next year.
Said otherwise, the schedule of 3DS is packed and convincing. A thing that as of today cannot be said for Vita, though the system itself is a fantastic piece of hardware and has lot of convincing features that are especially oriented to compete against the smartphones market. That's why I say the value is there. It is, but it is not exploited with planned synergy.
The point is that as of today Nintendo clearly is serious to defend the handheld with all means. Sony, instead, lacks the necessary aggressive behavior to convince the average consumer that Vita is a big deal.