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NeoGAF Summer Movie US Box Office Prediction Thread 2012 |OT| [Voting ends April 30]

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shira

shira

Member
What is it?: Summer Movies are the biggest grossing and funnest movies of the year.
This thread is to predict the top 5 US Summer Movie Box Office sales
(starting the week of May 4th and ending the week of September 1st ).
What do I win?: Bragging rights.

Prediction entries must be in by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, April 30th.
Correct format use is required if you want your entry counted.
You can edit your picks/post until the deadline.

Correct Format:
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 1st overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 2nd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 3rd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 4th overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 5th overall

WW#: Feel free to add your WorldWide Box Office predictions below US Box Office

Results for all 19 contestants
shira
TDKR 140 500
BRAV 100 350
AVEN 115 290
TASM 100 275
PROM 80 190

Iceman
TDKR 140 310
BATT 90 210
BRAV 70 200
TASM 75 200
MAD3 60 190

twinturbo2
TDKR 120 400
TASM 115 360
AVEN 110 345
GIJR 95 330
PROM 80 275

Valhelm
AVEN 200 800
TDKR 200 600
BATT 150 400
MIB3 75 300
PROM 50 200

Cheebo
TDKR 160 420
AVEN 125 310
TASM 90 240
BRAV 65 230
PROM 60 210

Eric Hall
TDKR 160 480
AVEN 155 330
TASM 95 300
BRAV 80 280
IACD 70 192

mechashiva
TDKR 160 570
TASM 143 410
AVEN 140 395
BRAV 95 240
GIJR 90 220

vicissitudes
TDKR 165 510
AVEN 110 270
TASM 75 180
MIB3 55 170
BOUR 55 160

Meir
TDKR 178 485
AVEN 163 385
TASM 130 305
BRAV 80 275
MIB3 90 245

Biggest-Geek-Ever
TDKR 206 580
AVEN 174 455
PROM 93 300
BRAV 65 255
TASM 60 240

LetsGoKiting
AVEN 123 405
TDKR 105 360
BRAV 65 210
TASM 71 183
SNOW 67 180

RBH
TDKR 175 575
AVEN 120 375
TASM 110 350
PROM 75 250
MIB3 55 175

Expendable.
TDKR 160 525
AVEN 135 390
TASM 130 370
BRAV 65 230
PROM 60 220

BuddyJoeHooker
TDKR 175 550
TASM 140 350
AVEN 135 300
PROM 70 220
BRAV 60 200

rezuth
TDKR 130 510
AVEN 120 440
TASM 98 410
PROM 92 380
MIB3 106 340

JdFox187
TDKR 175 525
AVEN 165 415
TASM 120 300
BRAV 70 285
MIB3 70 260

Phoenician Viking
TDKR 180 500
AVEN 160 385
TASM 165 400
MIB3 90 280
PROM 65 170

artist
TDKR 190 510
AVEN 175 425
TASM 120 275
MIB3 100 255
PROM 75 225

Nesotenso
TDKR 300 500
AVEN 275 400
MIB3 100 224
TASM 150 300
PROM 100 220

Top 3 so far:
Avengers OW
Valhelm 9.7
Artist 8.5
Biggest-Geek-Ever 8.4

MIB3 OW
RBH 10
vicissitudes 10

SNOW & PROM OW
everybody overshot


Scoring Guidelines link
Fully explained exemplar link

Key Points to Remember:
- Rank your top 5 Overall Box Office movies from highest --> lowest
- Do not rank your top 5 by opening weekend
- Sales figures will round up to the nearest million
- If you over-estimate the actual Box Office your total will be zero
- Movies not in the top 5 Overall Box Office will count as zero
- Some movies are 3D and/or IMAX potentially affecting sales
- Some movies open early or land on holidays potentially affecting weekend sales
- US holidays include May 4th and July 4th
- Later movies have less potential for Overall Box Office sales
- For simplicity we are using IMDB/Exhibitor Relations for US release dates, US Box Office summary, and disregarding the global box office
- The Hunger Games shows it is very difficult for the US Box Office to gain more than $150M for a 3 day weekend even playing on 4000 screens
Recent Box Office Records
[HP72] 169M - 381M
[TDK] 158M - 533M

many thanks to IMDB, donny2112, cheesemeister, xaosslug, & Expendable.
Disclosure:
I have no ties to the movie industry or viral marketing so I hope the OP appears unbiased.
First thread; PM any issues : )
 
H

Hot Coldman

Banned
That's a hell of an OP. You clearly put some good work into this. Just thought I'd get my "Good job!" in here before all the "[AVEN]- three cents and a piece of rag on a stick" comments come in. ;)
 
B

bud

Member
jett said:
This thread will be solo's doom.
Click to expand...

i always think of this when it comes to solo and box office predictions:

DGCHf.gif
 
shira

shira

Member
Green Scar said:
That's a hell of an OP. You clearly put some good work into this. Just thought I'd get my "Good job!" in here before all the "[AVEN]- three cents and a piece of rag on a stick" comments come in. ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks. It is all about delegating work and talking to the experts or people with experience so it is basically the NPD sales thread in OT form. Props to donny2112, cheesemeister, xaosslug, & Expendable. yet again.
 
shira

shira

Member
Well here goes nothing.

[TDKR] 140 - 500
[BRAV] 100 - 350
[AVEN] 115 - 290
[TASM] 100 - 275
[PROM] 80 – 190

WW# tdkr 600, brave 600, avengers 500, spiderman 400, Prometheus 200


Damn this is harder than I expected.
Shiiiiiiiet I don't even know what the WW #'s are going to be
 
S

Solo

Member
Yes, about time!

2 things:

1. How are you going to ensure that people don't edit their predictions later? Maybe you need to quote them in your OP or something.

2. There should be some kind of cut off. Like, no predictions on a movie can be made within 2 weeks of release. Prevents people from running off and stealing tracking numbers rather than coming up with their own.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
This thread sucks. Just summer? If I can't vote Hobbit over TDKR, I don't vote. This thread also misses the opportunity for Solo to overestimate Bond's B.O success.
 
shira

shira

Member
Solo said:
Yes, about time!

2 things:

1. How are you going to ensure that people don't edit their predictions later? Maybe you need to quote them in your OP or something.

2. There should be some kind of cut off. Like, no predictions on a movie can be made within 2 weeks of release. Prevents people from running off and stealing tracking numbers rather than coming up with their own.
Click to expand...

It says when you edit.

The cutoff is April 30th. Avengers opens May 4th.
That's a good idea OP quoting to finalize.
But I don't know how popular the thread is going to be.

If it is just Movie-GAF it will be pretty easy to manage.

Scullibundo said:
This thread sucks. Just summer? If I can't vote Hobbit over TDKR, I don't vote. This thread also misses the opportunity for Solo to overestimate Bond's B.O success.
Click to expand...
I have no idea how popular this tread will be. For all I know it is going to be me vs Solo.
We can always make more.
 
J

James Woods

Banned
This summer looks awful. I have no interest in Batman and despite loving Alien Prometheus doesn't rustle my jimmies. Great OP though.
 
shira

shira

Member
shagg_187 said:
Meh. Not interesting enough. How about winner gets a copy of the best selling movie of summer?
Click to expand...
I would be fine giving a prize IE BluRay but I don't know the logistics of GAF and the legalities surrounding prizes. Also shipping would probably cost more than anything. Some places in the world don't accept mail. I think CanadaPost just started shipping to Libya again.

Maybe an iTunes card if there are enough people? I have no clue how popular this will be and so far it is me vs Solo.

Also it is going to be at least X-mas for some of the winning movies. Wait and see attitude I guess.

WJD said:
Summer blockbusters generally release around the same time worldwide though don't they? Fair enough on your other point.
Click to expand...
Kusagari said:
It'd be fun to predict Ice Age's overseas BO. 850 million to 100 domestic!
Click to expand...
I think it becomes a guessing game if you use Worldwide. You have no idea if all the movies will air or what the draw is going to be, quality of translation. Just too many variables you can't consider.

The US has ~4000 screens and if a movie sucks they rip it off screens and if it is good they clear room in an effort to maximize profit. We also get a better sense of marketing and box office #'s. Dates have been selected years in advance, the big movies are not next to each other. Lots of tactical things going on to consider.

James Woods said:
Great OP though.
Click to expand...
Thanks, props to Props to donny2112, cheesemeister, xaosslug, & Expendable. yet again.
 
S

Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew

Banned
shira said:
I would be fine giving a prize IE BluRay but I don't know the logistics of GAF and the legalities surrounding prizes. Also shipping would probably cost more than anything. Some places in the world don't accept mail. I think CanadaPost just started shipping to Libya again.

Maybe an iTunes card if there are enough people? I have no clue how popular this will be and so far it is me vs Solo.

Also it is going to be at least X-mas for some of the winning movies. Wait and see attitude I guess.
Click to expand...

I'm just fucking with you bro! :p
Awesome OP, by the way. Cannot wait to participate!
 
R

Razgriz-Specter

Member
WJD said:
Summer blockbusters generally release around the same time worldwide though don't they? Fair enough on your other point.
Click to expand...

For alot of countries there is sometimes like a month gap between the US release and their own.

Though Fast Five as an extreme released on April 29 in the US and October 1 in Japan.
 
I

Iceman

Member
[TDKR] 140M - 310M
[BATT] 90M - 210M
[BRAV] 70M - 200M
[TASM] 75M - 200M
[MAD3] 60M - 190M

Man, these number look ridiculous.. $1 Billion from just 5 movies? Welp, they each made sense individually before I put them all next to each other.
 
shira

shira

Member
Iceman said:
Man, these number look ridiculous.. $1 Billion from just 5 movies? Welp, they each made sense individually before I put them all next to each other.
Click to expand...

I know. It looks easy, but I'm going to end up revising my numbers a lot.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
[TDKR] 120M - 400M
[TASM] 115M -360M
[AVEN] 110M - 345M
[GIJR] 95M - 330M
[PROM] 80M - 275M

I'm pretty confident that Prometheus will be the sleeper hit of the season. It'll do better than expected, bank on it.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
shira said:
Can you use M instead of million and only 1 dash. It will make it easier to input to Excel.
Tx
Click to expand...

Okay. Editing now.

Done. Now some bonus predictions!

Snow White and the Huntsman will make $250 million, minimum. Whoever cast Kirsten Stewart in the lead is smart, because Twihards will be attracted to it like flies to cow shit.

Battleship will bomb. Not as hard as John Carter, but Battleship will bomb.

Sparkle will win its opening weekend because Whitney Houston.

Nothing will beat The Hunger Games' opening weekend numbers. Dark Knight Returns will come close, though.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
I'll try my hand at this.

[AVEN] 200M - 800M
I think that the Avengers will be the highest grossing summer film of 2012, making two hundred million dollars in its opening weekend, and grossing eight hundred million during its entire run.
[TDKR] 200M - 600M
I think that closely following Marvel's main entry will be The Dark Knight Rises, also making two hundred million dollars in its opening weekend, but making six hundred million altogether.
[BATT] 150M - 400M
While being a critical flop, I bet that Battleship will earn one hundred fifty million dollars in its opening weekend, and 400 million altogether.
[MIB3] 75M - 300M
While setting no records, Men in Black 3 will earn a significant amount of money, 75,000,000 in its opening weekend, and three hundred million altogether.
[PROM] 50M - 200M
I'll wager that Prometheus will perform modestly in the box office. Certainly no flop, it'll certainly make back its budget, but not come close to the Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises, the two kings of the summer. In the opening weekend, it will gross 50 million, and 200,000,000 overall.
 
shira

shira

Member
twinturbo2 said:
Nothing will beat The Hunger Games' opening weekend numbers. Dark Knight Returns will come close, though.
Click to expand...
Tx for editing.
Don't forget it has IMAX. I don't think it will do as well, but that extra $5 premium ticket goes a long way. There is that pressure to watch it in 70mm IMAX to get Nolan's true vision.


Valhelm said:
I'll try my hand at this.

I'll wager that Prometheus will perform modestly in the box office. Certainly no flop, it'll certainly make back its budget, but not come close to the Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises, the two kings of the summer. In the opening weekend, it will gross 50 million, and 200,000,000 overall.
Click to expand...

Please stick to the format, it will make it easier to input into Excel - you can add your comments below.
Tx
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Scullibundo said:
This thread sucks. Just summer? If I can't vote Hobbit over TDKR, I don't vote. This thread also misses the opportunity for Solo to overestimate Bond's B.O success.
Click to expand...

Beat me to it. Except for the Skyfall part. I didn't think about that.

This should be a full year one, because The Hobbit will win worldwide numbers for the year.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Valhelm said:
I'll try my hand at this.

[AVEN] 200M - 800M
I think that the Avengers will be the highest grossing summer film of 2012, making two hundred million dollars in its opening weekend, and grossing eight hundred million during its entire run.
[TDKR] 200M - 600M
I think that closely following Marvel's main entry will be The Dark Knight Rises, also making two hundred million dollars in its opening weekend, but making six hundred million altogether.
[BATT] 150M - 400M
While being a critical flop, I bet that Battleship will earn one hundred fifty million dollars in its opening weekend, and 400 million altogether.
[MIB3] 75M - 300M
While setting no records, Men in Black 3 will earn a significant amount of money, 75,000,000 in its opening weekend, and three hundred million altogether.
[PROM] 50M - 200M
I'll wager that Prometheus will perform modestly in the box office. Certainly no flop, it'll certainly make back its budget, but not come close to the Avengers or The Dark Knight Rises, the two kings of the summer. In the opening weekend, it will gross 50 million, and 200,000,000 overall.
Click to expand...

You think Avengers will outgross Avatar and become the highest grossing movie of all time?!?!?!
 
shira

shira

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
Beat me to it. Except for the Skyfall part. I didn't think about that.

This should be a full year one, because The Hobbit will win worldwide numbers for the year.
Click to expand...
We can easily extend it the timeline. It is not like TDKR is going to make more money after its release window.

Like I said I have no idea how popular this topic is.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
shira said:
We can easily extend it the timeline. It is not like TDKR is going to make more money after its release window.

Like I said I have no idea how popular this topic is.
Click to expand...

I also think you should add one more column to the predicitons: worldwide.

Opening weekend (US)-> Total US Gross -> Total Worldwide.
 
shira

shira

Member
Scullibundo said:
Worldwide? Absolutely. People should note that I never mean domestic unless I specifically state domestic. We don't all live in America world.
Click to expand...
Well this is a US-specific discussion thread.


PhoncipleBone said:
I also think you should add one more column to the predicitons: worldwide.

Opening weekend (US)-> Total US Gross -> Total Worldwide.
Click to expand...

This is the first thread I have ever seen like this, but we can definitely use this as a beta for a bigger thread later.
OP edited for WW

Cheebo said:
You think Avengers will outgross Avatar and become the highest grossing movie of all time?!?!?!
Click to expand...
I haven't counted it yet until he re-formats, but leave him be. Avengers is gonna be awesome.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
shira said:
Well this is a US-specific discussion thread.
Click to expand...

You would be surprised at the sheer amount of non US users on here.


It is too random.
Worldwide idk how many screens, authenticity of the numbers, which countries open when.

With the US you know there are about 4000 screens.
The most opening weekend you can do is ~$150 million
So now you are trying to figure out how much it will depreciate based on the movies coming up.
Click to expand...

When it opens worldwide would not factor into opening weekend. Only domestic opening weekend. And worldwide numbers from sites like Box Office Mojo and Deadline are very accurate and you find out very quickly. Nothing random about it at all.

Adding worldwide doesn't make it random or confusing. It is just adding one more column to gloat about being right about. Or wrong.

And adding worldwide would give Solo something to cheer Skyfall on with. :)
 
shira

shira

Member
PhoncipleBone said:
You would be surprised at the sheer amount of non US users on here.

When it opens worldwide would not factor into opening weekend. Only domestic opening weekend. And worldwide numbers from sites like Box Office Mojo and Deadline are very accurate and you find out very quickly. Nothing random about it at all.

Adding worldwide doesn't make it random or confusing. It is just adding one more column to gloat about being right about. Or wrong.

And adding worldwide would give Solo something to cheer Skyfall on with. :)
Click to expand...

Well it is definitely something to think about for the next thread or a transfer to an inevitable 2012 Box Office edition, but my interest is in the US box office and seeing how well this format works with 2 variables.
It is my first thread afterall : )

I guess my precedence is NPD vs Media Create. You don't have them together do you?

OP edited for WW
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Scullibundo said:
Worldwide? Absolutely. People should note that I never mean domestic unless I specifically state domestic. We don't all live in America world.
Click to expand...

I think Batman and Hobbit will be pretty close in the end. Edge to Hobbit because I think it will have better legs than Batman, but I think it will be close.
 
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