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NeoGAF Summer Movie US Box Office Prediction Thread 2012 |OT| [Voting ends April 30]

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shira

shira

Member
Correct Format:
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 1st overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 2nd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 3rd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 4th overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 5th overall

WW#: Feel free to add your WorldWide Box Office predictions below US Box Office

Example:
[MARS] 40M - 900M
I think John Carter will gross the most overall,
forty million dollars in its opening weekend,
and gross nine hundred million for the summer
M = million of dollars
 
B

BuddyJoeHooker

Member
[TDKR] 175M - 550M
[TASM] 140M - 350M
[AVEN] 135M - 300M
[PROM] 70M - 220M
[BRAV] 60M - 200M

It was tough to decide between GI Joe, MIB3, and Brave, but Pixar does produce results.
Prometheus is there because of personal expectation. Batman will Hulk Smash.
 
shira

shira

Member
One day left

Correct Format:
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 1st overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 2nd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 3rd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 4th overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 5th overall

WW#: Feel free to add your WorldWide Box Office predictions below US Box Office

Example:
[MARS] 40M - 900M
I think John Carter will gross the most overall,
forty million dollars in its opening weekend,
and gross nine hundred million for the summer
M = million of dollars
 
R

rezuth

Member
[TDKR] 130M - 510M
[AVEN] 120M - 440M
[TASM] 98M - 410M
[PROM] 92M - 380M
[MIB3] 106M - 340M


WW# TDKR 1200, AVEN 890, TASM 710, PROM 680, MIB3 480
 
shira

shira

Member
Superman00 said:
lol, I guess most people haven't seen the tracking numbers for the Avengers. It's tracking at 150m+.
Click to expand...
Yeah but if you go over you get 0 points, so better to be conservative.

From what I hear it is pure popcorn. Not quite the same audience flocking to see HP7.2 and Hunger Games or TDK. But we shall see next week
 
J

JdFoX187

Banned
[TDKR] 175M - 525M
[AVEN] 165M - 415M
[TASM] 120M - 300M
[BRAV] 70M - 285M
[MIB3] 70M - 260M

EDIT: Switched out MIB3 for Battleship. Getting too much cold feet.
 
E

Expendable.

Member
JdFoX187 said:
Was a debate between Battleship, MIB3 and Prometheus for the last one. I expect all three films to gross around the same amount, but I think Battleship will edge them out.
Click to expand...

Latest tracking shows Battleship as low as John Carter in the US. Kind of crazy, but that's mostly bullshit. It can't bomb THAT bad.
 
P

Phoenician_Viking

Banned
[TDKR] 180M - 500M

[AVEN] 160M - 385M

[TASM] 165M - 400M

[MIB3] 90M - 280M

[PROM] 65M - 170M

[IACD] 110M - 260M

[TOTA] 55M - 150M

[GIJR] 60M - 170M

[BATT] 70M - 190M

WW

[TDKR] 1.2B
[AVEN] 600M
[TASM] 1B
[MIB3] 500M
[PROM] 350M
[IACD] 1B
[TOTA] 350M
[GIJR] 325M
[BATT] 400M.
 
E

Expendable.

Member
JdFoX187 said:
Holy shit. There's no way it can bomb that bad, is there? I might have to change my predictions.
Click to expand...

Tracking is always all over the place until a week or two before, but as we know word of mouth likely won't be very good. With Avengers the exact opposite, it'll be interesting. Also, MIB3 could bury it if it's halfway decent, then Snow White then Prometheus.
 
shira

shira

Member
Correct Format:
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 1st overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 2nd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 3rd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 4th overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 5th overall

WW#: Feel free to add your WorldWide Box Office predictions below US Box Office

Example:
[MARS] 40M - 900M
I think John Carter will gross the most overall,
forty million dollars in its opening weekend,
and gross nine hundred million for the summer
M = million of dollars
 
A

artist

Banned
Havent really researched anything except some tracking for Avengers, got nothing to lose .. here goes;

[TDKR] 190 - 510
[AVEN] 175 - 425
[TASM] 120 - 275
[MIB3] 100 - 255
[PROM] 75 - 225

Less than 50 mins left, get your entries in GAF!
 
A

artist

Banned
^ dude. First number is opening weekend. No way TDKR will smang 300M or Avengers getting 275M. Edit, edit, edit!
 
shira

shira

Member
artist said:
Bricks will be shat if anything even remotely close happens.

It's a shame that this thread didnt really take off bud. :( You should update the OP will all the players and their estimates.
Click to expand...
There are way too many movie threads this year and it is easier to just post in individual threads.

Yeah, I'm debating wether to post as excel data jpg or NPD style. Prolly end up doing both.
 
A

artist

Banned
artist said:
Havent really researched anything except some tracking for Avengers, got nothing to lose .. here goes;

[TDKR] 190 - 510
[AVEN] 175 - 425
[TASM] 120 - 275
[MIB3] 100 - 255
[PROM] 75 - 225

Less than 50 mins left, get your entries in GAF!
Click to expand...
Holy shit, my top 3 guesses are within 5% of Boxofficemojo's predictions, which came out just now. I have Prometheus/MIB3 higher than theirs while they have Brave on those numbers. I could be putting a lot of stock in MIB3 because of its memorial day weekend plus no biggie in its second weekend, also counting a lot of Ridley fanboys who grew up loving Alien to storm the theatres.

1. The Dark Knight Rises (July 20): $500 million
2. The Avengers (May 4): $420 million
3. The Amazing Spider-Man (July 3): $300 million
4. Brave (June 22): $260 million
5. MIB 3 (May 25): $175 million
6. The Bourne Legacy (August 3): Forecast: $160 million
7. G.I. Joe: Retaliation (June 29): $155 million
8. Prometheus (June 8): $145 million
9. Rock of Ages (June 15): $140 million
10. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted: (June 8): $135 million
11. Ice Age: Continental Drift (July 13): $130 million
12. Dark Shadows (May 11): $125 million
13. That's My Boy (June 15): $120 million
14. Hope Springs (August 15): $115 million
15. Snow White and the Huntsman (June 1): $110 million
Click to expand...

So BOM's expecting TDKR will gross 1.3B WW. ;) (And Avengers will hit 1B)
 
M

Meier

Member
I think they've criminally under-predicted Ice Age and Promotheus. I made a critical error with MIB 3... I looked at the opening weekend versus the final total of MIB 2 and misjudged its legs. Oh well, what can ya do.
 
J

JdFoX187

Banned
Meier said:
I think they've criminally under-predicted Ice Age and Promotheus. I made a critical error with MIB 3... I looked at the opening weekend versus the final total of MIB 2 and misjudged its legs. Oh well, what can ya do.
Click to expand...

Will Smith wasn't the box office draw then he is/was now. Prometheus' number seems about right from them. But I think they've severely overestimated The Bourne Legacy. I don't see it doing $160 -- maybe $110 million.
 
shira

shira

Member
JdFoX187 said:
Will Smith wasn't the box office draw then he is/was now. Prometheus' number seems about right from them. But I think they've severely overestimated The Bourne Legacy. I don't see it doing $160 -- maybe $110 million.
Click to expand...
He hasn't done a movie in a few years so it's hard to say
 
A

artist

Banned
shira said:
He hasn't done a movie in a few years so it's hard to say
Click to expand...
Yup.

Even the rejected Seven Pounds had a multiplier of 4.5x

MIB3 has no competition on its 4 day weekend and has two weeks to itself before the next biggie Prometheus hits. It could be close to the 200M by then, unless its really really awful or it bombs. I hope Prometheus gets traction with the general audience.
 
M

Meier

Member
JdFoX187 said:
Will Smith wasn't the box office draw then he is/was now. Prometheus' number seems about right from them. But I think they've severely overestimated The Bourne Legacy. I don't see it doing $160 -- maybe $110 million.
Click to expand...

Well, my misstep was in not noticing that the movies opened 2 days earlier than the weekend so the IM was closer to 2 than say 4 like it appeared. Oh well, we'll see. Hopefully MIB3 is a break out. Hancock was his last big budget flick and it did quite well despite being a completely new franchise.
 
J

JdFoX187

Banned
twinturbo2 said:
$80.5 million first day domestic gross for The Avengers

I still don't think it'll outdo The Hunger Games, though. It just screams "front-loaded" to me.

If I'm wrong, I'll take the inevetable tag and wear it proudly.
Click to expand...

It will outdo Hunger Games easily. 3D tax alone is going to help push it. That's an extremely impressive Friday. Anecdotally, I was buying tickets for a Monday show since I work weekends and even at 8 a.m. Friday they were almost sold out for Monday's evening showing. It's going to be a beast of a film.

Meier said:
Well, my misstep was in not noticing that the movies opened 2 days earlier than the weekend so the IM was closer to 2 than say 4 like it appeared. Oh well, we'll see. Hopefully MIB3 is a break out. Hancock was his last big budget flick and it did quite well despite being a completely new franchise.
Click to expand...

I think what will hold Men in Black back is the fact that it's a franchise that hasn't been around for quite a while and there's the fact that Men in Black 2 was terrible. Smith being gone since Hancock and Seven Pounds could go either way. People could come see it just to see him back. Or people could have moved on and not really care about his career anymore. But I think it's got potential to be big, especially with all of the original cast coming back and the trailers looking pretty funny.

shira said:
So $240 mill weekend potential?
Click to expand...

Nah, movies rarely hold the same amount across three days. Deadline is saying $175 million opening and I think it'll land somewhere around there.
 
M

Meier

Member
twinturbo2 said:
I still don't think it'll outdo The Hunger Games, though. It just screams "front-loaded" to me.

If I'm wrong, I'll take the inevetable tag and wear it proudly.
Click to expand...

I'd say there's a 0% chance it finishes under $400 million. Should do at least 60-70 next weekend as well IMO and will already be around $300 million.
 
shira

shira

Member
JdFoX187 said:
Nah, movies rarely hold the same amount across three days. Deadline is saying $175 million opening and I think it'll land somewhere around there.
Click to expand...

oino, but I guess $250-275 is the perfect storm # for the US. Sold out all 3 days
 
J

JdFoX187

Banned
I almost went with $170 million for Avengers opening, but I didn't think it'd quite make it. Oh well, I'm still fairly close.
 
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