Support NeoGAF

[Effect]

Nice. When are the next shipments due?

Is it true that its been hacked to run R4's already?

For original DS games I think. Not DSi or even 3DS games. I think it was the same on the DSi. DS originals R4s worked but not games that were labeled DSi. Hopefully the same continues with them not being able to hack the 3DS games.

The first firmware update should be interesting. As well as what the upcoming updates via game carts (the way the Wii updates).

 

[Lord_Byron28]

what? I cant imagine new hardware would have difficulty in matching the same numbers for day 1

Is my sarcasm detector broken?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

meh the shipments have bomba!

It will hardly get any higher by media creates numbers next week with only 2 days counted
too bad Nintendo you did not ship enough

 

[Haunted]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

 

[Boney]

Yeah but how many have been sold outside Japan huh?

It's just like the PSP

 

[markatisu]

I wouldn't call 30.9? Or was it 32.9? Something like that a TON considering the playstation sold 102 million. I'm just saying he was implying the sales of everything nintendo has done compares to that of the soon to be 3DS numbers, and wii numbers, and DS numbers, which are all far far far far far more than what the n64 sold. Pretty disappointing in comparison.

I think people loved the n64 and made up their own history

You do realize how Nintendo works right? Their hardware is designed so they make a profit on Day 1. The N64, Gamecube, etc all made profit from their launch forward.

Its one of the reasons they do not have to have the pissing contests everyone else does, they are kind of like Apple in the sense they do what they want because they profit regardless.

 

[The Lamp]

I bet you most of them walked out of the store and just took 3D pictures all day and drew on their faces. haha

 

[From The Dust]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

trying not to blow their load in only a couple of days? beside, 400K doesn't seem that bad.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

It's smarter to release every two weeks than go a month until they can produce another million.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

1) Preparing LOT of units for U.S. and PAL launch.

2) Creating and keeping shortages in order to keep up some crazy hype.

3) Permitting 3DS new owners to buy games alongside the handheld.

 

[EatChildren]

Yeah but how many have been sold outside Japan huh?

It's just like the PSP

I fucking knew it. I kept calling bomba.

 

[carlo6529]

Anyone think nintendo has a chance of outselling the DS with the 3DS?

 

[AceBandage]

Anyone think nintendo has a chance of outselling the DS with the 3DS?

It'll be harder, but that's completely up to the software support it gets, which seems to be stronger initially, at least.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Anyone think nintendo has a chance of outselling the DS with the 3DS?

That's too hard to say right now. Even for you Merlin.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Anyone think nintendo has a chance of outselling the DS with the 3DS?

Almost certainly not. Handheld industry growth seems unlikely, so even an incredibly successful 3DS would be lucky to match the DS.

They might end up in a good situation where software sells better, though, so it could help even out.

 

[sykoex]

meh the shipments have bomba!

It will hardly get any higher by media creates numbers next week with only 2 days counted
too bad Nintendo you did not ship enough

They know exactly what they're doing. This is the same game they played with the Wii, keep the supply low to help build demand.

 

[apana]

I don't care if it didn't sell well, Nintendo 64 was very profitable and all around awesome. Best Nintendo console.

 

[M3d10n]

It's all part of Nintendo's plan. That's why they aren't releasing the store till later. They see any hacks that are already out then patch them with an update that absolutely everyone will want.

Or I'm giving them too much credit and Nintendo simply isn't as good as lets say a Sony with security.

You're probably right. The way some DSi-compatible DS flash cards work combined with the fact that Nintendo cannot change the way legacy DS games work make it very hard to block them.

DSi-compatible flashcards work by returning header and binary data from an original DS game when the DSi requests such data so it can validate them. After passing validation, the DSi actually boots the original game data, but the flashcard will inject its payload whenever the "host" game tries to load more data. Most flashcards use the same games, and hide their payloads in "overlays", which are binary code that is loaded dynamically by the game (kinda like a DLL). This the modified overlay is loaded after the boot process, it escapes the verification.

Since overlays are listed in the DS ROM header, Nintendo probably compiled a list of original DS ROMs games as flashcard "trojan horses" and their overlays' hashes so they can go through extra validation. So, by using a different game as host, the flashcard can probably skip the detection. It's also possible that Nintendo actually compiled (or is compiling) a list of all games that use the overlay feature: the only option left for flashcard makers is exploiting buffer overflow in DS games (which could be included into the verification list as they crop up).

I think this is what the "mandatory updates" is about: maybe whenever you get your 3DS online, it downloads an updated DS ROM hash verification list without any notice.

 

[NomarTyme]

Should be fun to see how much it sells after the initial launch.

 

[Cipherr]

They know exactly what they're doing. This is the same game they played with the Wii, keep the supply low to help build demand.

Good ol' Nintendo holding back stock as usual.

400k? not impressed, ... Nintendo is being conservative...

We aren't really going to start this shit again this go around are we?

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

You do realize how Nintendo works right? Their hardware is designed so they make a profit on Day 1. The N64, Gamecube, etc all made profit from their launch forward.

Its one of the reasons they do not have to have the pissing contests everyone else does, they are kind of like Apple in the sense they do what they want because they profit regardless.

and like I said it doesn't nearly compare to their really successful shit.

 

[WillyFive]

I don't care if it didn't sell well, Nintendo 64 was very profitable and all around awesome. Best Nintendo console.

Right on.

Shame it was a flop in Japan, we would have gotten more Japanese games on it.

After the Wii and DS, it's weird how the N64 was almost completely ran by Western developers.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

We aren't really going to start this shit again this go around are we?

Well in this case, they actually are holding back stock and it's not just the fevered dream of people who desperately want to be negative about everything.

But we know they're holding back stock because they've said so. They produced over a million, but releasing it all at once would have been bad for a number of people. Two weeks is a short time to wait for another shipment and it increases the chance of actually getting one within the month.

 

[Sealda]

Anyone got picture from Super Famicom's infamous launch?

 

[~Kinggi~]

Nintendo is ridiculously filthy rich.

 

[Boney]

I fucking knew it. I kept calling bomba.

I no right? fucking newbs being impressed by this, and say that PSP bombs. Fucking hipocrites

 

[EatChildren]

Here's some various shipping/sold stats for Japan.

DS: 500,000 shipped. 230,000 sold on first day.
DSi: 200,000 shipped. 170,779 sold in two days.
Wii: 400,000 shipped. 370,000 sold in two days.

PSP: 200,000 shipped. 200,000 sold in two days.
PS3: 81,639 sold in one day.

 

[apana]

So what kind of profit margins on this thing?

 

[expy]

Not surprising, but I guess this means the end of the line for Wii in Japan as well.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Well in this case, they actually are holding back stock and it's not just the fevered dream of people who desperately want to be negative about everything.

But we know they're holding back stock because they've said so. They produced over a million, but releasing it all at once would have been bad for a number of people. Two weeks is a short time to wait for another shipment and it increases the chance of actually getting one within the month.

It's a different kind of situation. They are holding it back so they don't sell a million in the first week, clear out of software and then not get a shipment until a month or so later. It's not because they are creating artificial demand like many were implying.

 

[MisterHero]

I no right? fucking newbs being impressed by this, and say that PSP bombs. Fucking hipocrites

I remember people saying the PSP's successful launch was sealing the fate for Nintendo, I don't think it was the same

I almost believed them ;(

 

[apana]

Not surprising, but I guess this means the end of the line for Wii in Japan as well.

Well there's still Dragon Quest I guess. I think the decline of the Wii is its own issue, separate from all these consoles.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

It's a different kind of situation. They are holding it back so they don't sell a million in the first week, clear out of software and then not get a shipment until a month or so later. It's not because they are creating artificial demand like many were implying.

Right, that's what I mean. They actually are holding back stock now, but not for the sake of artificial demand. The 3DS launch is basically their shot at making a good first impression with third parties. They're trying to manage it so they benefit.

 

[Tempy]

For original DS games I think. Not DSi or even 3DS games. I think it was the same on the DSi. DS originals R4s worked but not games that were labeled DSi. Hopefully the same continues with them not being able to hack the 3DS games.

The first firmware update should be interesting. As well as what the upcoming updates via game carts (the way the Wii updates).

I wonder if DS homebrew software would run better on the more powerful 3DS.

 

[GDGF]

Hell yeah

I imagine that we're going to start seeing weekly lines in Japan for the 3DS. Just like the DS had in its heyday.

 

[Matt]

You do realize how Nintendo works right? Their hardware is designed so they make a profit on Day 1. The N64, Gamecube, etc all made profit from their launch forward.

Why do people keep saying this? Nintendo took a small loss initially on the GameCube.

 

[Haunted]

It's smarter to release every two weeks than go a month until they can produce another million.

Is it? Make more people happy on day 1. People beyond the first million will have to wait for a month either way. I don't get this kind of staggered release.

That said, I wasn't really complaining about that. It was more about the total amount of production they did before release, not in the intervals they're releasing the available stock.

 

[Izayoi]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

What are you talking about?

It's the best day-one handheld launch EVER in Japan, and I think the best gaming system period day-one too, right?

How is that terrible at all?

 

[Celine]

Is it?

It is.
Nintendo must try to keep alive and build momentum.

 

[thcsquad]

Is it? Make more people happy on day 1. People beyond the first million will have to wait for a month either way. I don't get this kind of staggered release.

That said, I wasn't really complaining about that. It was more about the total amount of production they did before release, not in the intervals they're releasing the available stock.

A month without any stock would kill the hype.

 

[Haunted]

What are you talking about?

It's the best day-one handheld launch EVER in Japan, and I think the best gaming system period day-one too, right?

How is that terrible at all?

I'm obviously talking about potential 3DS sales numbers, not compared to previous systems. They produced a million units, they would've sold a million units today if they didn't hold back stock.

 

[Sadist]

Haunted is just joking around hehe

 

[AceBandage]

I'm obviously talking about potential 3DS sales numbers, not compared to previous systems.

They produced a million units, they would've sold a million units today if they didn't hold back stock.

Yes, but then they'd have nothing for any other region or restocking.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Is it? Make more people happy on day 1. People beyond the first million will have to wait for a month either way.

I don't get this staggered release.

Let's say you're Tecmo and you don't plan to release on launch day, but two weeks after launch.

A large portion of launch window software is sold at launch, when people buy the system and two or three games (Nintendogs, Layton, etc.). This really, really kind of fucks over Tecmo. So their only choice is to launch with the system and possibly get lost in the shuffle and then nothing comes out for the following few weeks because everyone wanted to launch alongside the people buying the hardware.

Which really, really kind of fucks over Nintendo.

From a system userbase perspective, staggered launches also provide viral marketing. It sells out to 400k people, then another 400k who may have not thought about getting one decide to with the next wave because they knew people in the initial launch who are awed by theirs. You do delay some customers, yeah, but you are unlikely to lose any and likely to gain some.

 

[plagiarize]

Terrible shipment/production numbers.

wtf is Nintendo doing.

let's relook at eat children's post...

Here's some various shipping/sold stats for Japan.

DS: 500,000 shipped. 230,000 sold on first day.
DSi: 200,000 shipped. 170,779 sold in two days.
Wii: 400,000 shipped. 370,000 sold in two days.

PSP: 200,000 shipped. 200,000 sold in two days.
PS3: 81,639 sold in one day.

the only system that recently shipped more in their initial shipment is the DS. they didn't even sell out of the Wii as quickly as they've sold out of the 3DS.

but i suppose they should have expected to have a better launch than the wii right?

even if they're holding back stock, 400,000 units day one is not a terrible shipment.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Is it? Make more people happy on day 1. People beyond the first million will have to wait for a month either way. I don't get this kind of staggered release.

That said, I wasn't really complaining about that. It was more about the total amount of production they did before release, not in the intervals they're releasing the available stock.

Everything about the 3DS is aimed at taking it with you all the time, getting it seen in real life by other people.

The way to ride that hype train best is to ensure there is stock on the shelves regularly, so people can walk in and buy it and then become part of the hype train themselves.

 

[From The Dust]

I'm obviously talking about potential 3DS sales numbers, not compared to previous systems. They produced a million units, they would've sold a million units today if they didn't hold back stock.

but then they wouldn't be able to consistantly sell over a longer period of time. there would be larger gaps in shipments. some stores may not have any units for weeks

 

[woober]

Erm... so does that mean I should preorder this. I hope this doesn't end up like the Wii where it becomes impossible to find when it first launched.

 

[From The Dust]

Erm... so does that mean I should preorder this. I hope this doesn't end up like the Wii where it becomes impossible to find when it first launched.

it would prolly be a good idea

 

[Haunted]

Hm, I'm not sure. A month without stock would could just as well build up the hype to feverish levels.

Yes, but then they'd have nothing for any other region or restocking.

But again, my problem is with them being able to only produce a million per month. Just blow this shit up for now and scale back accordingly after launch. It's like they haven't learned anything from the various DS launches and the Wii.


Typical conservative Nintendo. Probably better for their bottom line, too. Doesn't mean I have to like it!

Let's say you're Tecmo and you don't plan to release on launch day, but two weeks after launch.

A large portion of launch window software is sold at launch, when people buy the system and two or three games (Nintendogs, Layton, etc.). This really, really kind of fucks over Tecmo. So their only choice is to launch with the system and possibly get lost in the shuffle and then nothing comes out for the following few weeks because everyone wanted to launch alongside the people buying the hardware.

Which really, really kind of fucks over Nintendo.

From a system userbase perspective, staggered launches also provide viral marketing. It sells out to 400k people, then another 400k who may have not thought about getting one decide to with the next wave because they knew people in the initial launch who are awed by theirs. You do delay some customers, yeah, but you are unlikely to lose any and likely to gain some.

Alright, I'm kind of buying into the third party reasoning.

Staggered launch, still not convinced. Positive word of mouth from a million people seems better than positive word of mouth from 400k people. I don't see two weeks of waiting as the limit for people interested in the hardware.