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[Box of Bunnies]

So not quite Gamecubin' just yet but it's gotta pick up its game or it'll be heading that way. Hopefully Mario U and Zelda U won't get the rushed-out-to-try-and-push-sales treatment that Sunshine and Wind Waker did (both were fine games, but I'd prefer something more on the Galaxy level) though I can't see where the sales push is going to come from otherwise.

 

[Aquamarine]

The software one is the one that gets me. Quite a large drop in what they achieved. I wonder if they expected better support and therefore didn't expect to delay as many of their own games, or just that people would buy more of what's on offer? I assume the former because the attach rate is still pretty reasonable given the selection/



Remember they count bundled units in there which could be 1.5-2 mill (Assuming most are Delux), so it's closer to 3 I think.



What's the first one? Iwata resigning?

Iwata's probably going to talk about the internal restructuring and how it's going to affect Nintendo output.

He'll also reiterate Nintendo working with new partners to diversify their lineup and "make a new Nintendo," or something like that.

 

[Striek]

Since its not in the OP:

Jan 30 (Reuters) -
              Nintendo Co Ltd     
              CONSOLIDATED EARNINGS ESTIMATES

                 Full Year to      Full Year to 
               Mar 31, 2013      Mar 31, 2013   
                  LATEST           PREVIOUS     
                 FORECAST          FORECAST     
  Sales           670.00            810.00      
  Operating     loss 20.00           20.00      
  Recurring        20.00             10.00      
  Net              14.00              6.00      
  EPS           109.48 yen         46.92 yen

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/idUSXB0QINDF320130130

They expect increased net profit for the FY on lower revenue and an operating loss. Presumably yen related?

 

[EDarkness]

Well, they walked away from the quarter in the black. Good for them. Also glad they adjusted that 5.5 mil shipped estimate. I doubt they would be able to do that, especially with the lineup they have coming. Their biggest problem at the moment is definitely a lack of games. They really need to do something about this.

 

[marc^o^]

3DS at 30 millions in less than 2 years = Nintendo caught lightning in a bottle a third time in a row.

Reaching such a critical mass was extremely important, because now kids who don't have a 3DS know friends who do, and you can bet it will be their next birthday/christmas present.

Despite the rough time ahead comments we can read on GAF, 3DS is now sure to follow the DS path to success.

So Nintendo can concentrate on Wii U. I'll leave that to another post.

 

[Hero]

I think at this point it's fair to say that they've pissed away their head start with the Wii U. Things are going to get very painful very quickly for them after E3.

I'm curious how you come to this conclusion after the two month launch window. Jan-Mar will be pretty miserable due to lack of new software but April-June has an opportunity to be pretty decent.

Although I think that it sucks games were delayed, having them all in the next FY will give a bigger YoY boost, probably, than if they were squeezed into this quarter, in a FY that is probably beyond saving.

I definitely feel that part of the reason why the games were delayed is to save them for the next fiscal year to have a good start.

They're probably going to try and make more attractive bundles before they try a price drop unless Microsoft and Sony bring out $300-350 consoles.

I foresee the removal of the Wii U Basic SKU altogether. It's the least popular SKU and it's clear that nobody wants it or intends to buy it. Only way I can see it being successful is if it goes down to 249.99 and the Premium remains at 349.99.

 

[Mpl90]

Since its not in the OP:



http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/idUSXB0QINDF320130130

They expect increased net profit for the FY. Presumably yen related?

I think so. The continuati in of this devaluation trend is the best for every Japanese company strongly relying on exports. So, Nintendo, Sony, Toyota, etc. etc.

 

[guek]

"lightning in a bottle" might be a bit much but they've definitely found their market there.

NOT THAT I'M TRYING TO BE A HATER HERE but does anyone know the vita LTD just for curiosity's sake?

 

[hatchx]

Iwata's probably going to talk about the internal restructuring and how it's going to affect Nintendo output.

He'll also reiterate Nintendo working with new partners to diversify their lineup and "make a new Nintendo," or something like that.

Do you think there is a chance they'll show some goods?

I know they showed us some at the last ND, but goddamnit it's like crack and just one screenshot of 3D Mario would make me very happy!

 

[?oe?oe]

I wonder if they're going to reveal something at the investor's meeting? They usually have at least one cool tidbit there.

The next couple of months are going to be rough for Wii U. Hopefully it picks up in Q2. 3DS going along nicely.

 

[C4Lukins]

So only 4.3 million Wii units shipped in the past year. I doubt they will get to 110 at this point unless they start selling them dirt cheap.

Not great for WII U, but the company as a whole made money, and that is an important accomplishment when launching a new system.

It sort of looks to me like they are most similar to the 360 early launch where they had a hard time proving to people the system would be viable for the longterm. Nintendo is going to need another WII Fit type megawin device to get people excited. It really feels like they are starting over with none of the initial excitement of the original Wii.

If I was Nintendo, I would play the true Pokémon on a console card right away. I do not think stuff like Brawl and Mario Kart will be enough this time. We will see.

 

[Hero of Legend]

When in EST is the meeting results coming in?

 

[Sandfox]

So not quite Gamecubin' just yet but it's gotta pick up its game or it'll be heading that way. Hopefully Mario U and Zelda U won't get the rushed-out-to-try-and-push-sales treatment that Sunshine and Wind Waker did (both were fine games, but I'd prefer something more on the Galaxy level) though I can't see where the sales push is going to come from otherwise.

If they can avoid the huge droughts the Gamecube had and try to continue with and they continue to do crossovers like they stated that they want to they should be able to at least do ok with the Wii U.

 

[Aquamarine]

So only 4.3 million Wii units shipped in the past year. I doubt they will get to 110 at this point unless they start selling them dirt cheap.

Not great for WII U, but the company as a whole made money, and that is an important accomplishment when launching a new system.

It sort of looks to me like they are most similar to the 360 early launch where they had a hard time proving to people the system would be viable for the longterm. Nintendo is going to need another WII Fit type megawin device to get people excited. It really feels like they are starting over with none of the initial excitement of the original Wii.

If I was Nintendo, I would play the true Pokémon on a console card right away. I do not think stuff like Brawl and Mario Kart will be enough this time. We will see.

Coming off a recession doesn't help either. Times were definitely better back in late 2006, before the bubble burst.

Do you think there is a chance they'll show some goods?

I know they showed us some at the last ND, but goddamnit it's like crack and just one screenshot of 3D Mario would make me very happy!

There's always a possibility Nintendo might announce future lineups and reveal some games we haven't seen yet (like Retro's title as an example of "Nintendo diversity.")

 

[StreetsAhead]

Iwata's probably going to talk about the internal restructuring and how it's going to affect Nintendo output.

He'll also reiterate Nintendo working with new partners to diversify their lineup and "make a new Nintendo," or something like that.

If Miyamoto is indeed stepping away from his general role at EAD, I expect it will be announced here.

I foresee the removal of the Wii U Basic SKU altogether. It's the least popular SKU and it's clear that nobody wants it or intends to buy it. Only way I can see it being successful is if it goes down to 249.99 and the Premium remains at 349.99.

If they don't remove it, it will be bundled with Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, or Wii Sports U to try and garner some interest.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Doesn't seem too bad. If Reggie's "buy 1 game with a system and we've made a profit" thing is true, those NSMBU/Nintendoland sales should be more than adequate.

Still, they need to get moving on new games. Remember when Iwata said he wanted a new Wii game every month? Whatever happened to that? Put out Pikmin 3, Yoshi Land, Game and Wario, Wonderful 101 etc. before the one-two of Mario Kart and 3D Mario for the holidays. Microsoft (granted, assisted by third parties) was able to nurture an extremely positive ecosystem for 360 software by keeping a steady flow of games coming before the Wii and PS3 launched. Saints Row and Dead Rising weren't system sellers for a lot of people, but the fact that there were a good dozen or so games out of similar quality already is what laid the foundation for its eventual success.

 

[Rand6]

I'm curious how you come to this conclusion after the two month launch window. Jan-Mar will be pretty miserable due to lack of new software but April-June has an opportunity to be pretty decent.

With GTA 5 on PS3/X360? Nobody will care about WiiU...

 

[daxgame]

wow did not expect a profit at all. Not doomed anymore, I guess.

 

[Resilient]

The inability for some of you to make a correlation between Pikmin 3 delay and and a decrease in forecasting is just ... Wow.

Sorry, I mean Nintendo is DOOMED !!!

 

[jerd]

With GTA 5 on PS3/X360? Nobody will care about WiiU...

Does GTA still sell well? Serious question. I just didn't think it had the same weight it used to.

 

[Mael]

Yeah, that's true. The GameCube was amazing because of this, and we all saw what kind of a desolate wasteland of nothing the Wii became once they were content with swimming in Wii Fit money.

When was that?
When they cut into the dev time for WW that was ridiculed for its art style?
When they delayed the shit out of Zelda TP?
When they released Fire Emblem because they had nothing else to release or in the long drought when nothing at all was relased?

With GTA 5 on PS3/X360? Nobody will care about WiiU...

It's true that GTA IV literally buried the Wii and the month it was released ps3 and 360 sold each twice as much as the Wii...

 

[Sandfox]

The inability for some of you to make a correlation between Pikmin 3 delay and and a decrease in forecasting is just ... Wow.

Sorry, I mean Nintendo is DOOMED !!!

Quite a few other games were moved to Q2 as well.

 

[BrokenEchelon]

I'm curious how you come to this conclusion after the two month launch window. Jan-Mar will be pretty miserable due to lack of new software but April-June has an opportunity to be pretty decent.
.

Iwata said that they're showing off 3D Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, and Wii U Party (or w/e the Mario Party successor is called) at E3, which is in June.

That pretty much kills the chances of any major Nintendo release until the fall or winter.

Aside from the stuff that has already been announced, which isn't going to push systems (Bayo 2, Pikmin 3, W101). Feel free to quote this and ridicule me in six months, but regardless of the quality of those games, they just aren't system sellers.

Look at the Wii's best selling titles. Most of them are party games, mixed with a few Mario titles.

When was that?
When they cut into the dev time for WW that was ridiculed for its art style?
When they delayed the shit out of Zelda TP?
When they released Fire Emblem because they had nothing else to release or in the long drought when nothing at all was relased?

When they made Metroid Prime. When they signed a deal for exclusivity for Resident Evil 4 and REmake. When they made F-Zero GX. When they took a gamble on Wind Waker, when they made Super Smash Bros Melee, when they tried to get Metal Gear to finally cross over from PlayStation. When they took a gamble on Mario w/ Sunshine. When they created new IPs: Pikmin, Animal Crossing.

The point is, they tried.

 

[FearMyWrench]

Animal Crossing New Leaf: 2.73 million

Nintendo of America: What's an Animal Crossing?

 

[Bruno MB]

They have adjusted down their 3DS software forecast from 70 million to 50. That's the main issue Nintendo must solve.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Doesn't seem too bad. If Reggie's "buy 1 game with a system and we've made a profit" thing is true, those NSMBU/Nintendoland sales should be more than adequate.

Still, they need to get moving on new games. Remember when Iwata said he wanted a new Wii game every month? Whatever happened to that? Put out Pikmin 3, Yoshi Land, Game and Wario, Wonderful 101 etc. before the one-two of Mario Kart and 3D Mario for the holidays. Microsoft (granted, assisted by third parties) was able to nurture an extremely positive ecosystem for 360 software by keeping a steady flow of games coming before the Wii and PS3 launched. Saints Row and Dead Rising weren't system sellers for a lot of people, but the fact that there were a good dozen or so games out of similar quality already is what laid the foundation for its eventual success.

Pretty sure this has been debunked. I think the biggest reason for their turnaround is the weakening of yen. The new Japanese government took measures to ensure their companies do better and it shows.

If I'm wrong please feel free to correct me on this assumption

 

[StreetsAhead]

Doesn't seem too bad. If Reggie's "buy 1 game with a system and we've made a profit" thing is true, those NSMBU/Nintendoland sales should be more than adequate.

Still, they need to get moving on new games. Remember when Iwata said he wanted a new Wii game every month? Whatever happened to that? Put out Pikmin 3, Yoshi Land, Game and Wario, Wonderful 101 etc. before the one-two of Mario Kart and 3D Mario for the holidays. Microsoft (granted, assisted by third parties) was able to nurture an extremely positive ecosystem for 360 software by keeping a steady flow of games coming before the Wii and PS3 launched. Saints Row and Dead Rising weren't system sellers for a lot of people, but the fact that there were a good dozen or so games out of similar quality already is what laid the foundation for its eventual success.

3DS has been doing more or less 1 game a month from Nintendo (in Japan) last year.

 

[hatchx]

The inability for some of you to make a correlation between Pikmin 3 delay and and a decrease in forecasting is just ... Wow.

Sorry, I mean Nintendo is DOOMED !!!

I don't understand that statement?


Are you stating Pikmin 3 was delay had to do with the lower forecast? and that should be obvious?

....or are you being sarcastic in that Pikmin 3 is so amazing it'll boost sales....


....it's 3AM my sarcasm detector is shut down....but yeah, Pikmin 3 will be awesome...yeah

 

[Aaron Strife]

Animal Crossing New Leaf: 2.73 million

Nintendo of America: What's an Animal Crossing?

A hardcore gamer game that will alone satisfy all of our audience! /e32008neverforget

Pretty sure this has been debunked. I think the biggest reason for their turnaround is the weakening of yen. The new Japanese government took measures to ensure their companies do better and it shows.

I'd believe it.

They have adjusted down their 3DS software forecast from 70 million to 50. That's the main issue Nintendo must solve.

They could start by pricing their games more reasonably. Why is everything $39 across the board? The bigger games like Mario or Zelda, sure, but stuff like Steel Diver?

3DS has been doing more or less 1 game a month from Nintendo (in Japan) last year.

Software stream seems to be better on handhelds, generally. Maybe because the smaller projects are held to less rigid schedules.

 

[Gravijah]

Does GTA still sell well? Serious question. I just didn't think it had the same weight it used to.

GTAIV only shipped 25+. Essentially a drop in the bucket.

A hardcore gamer game that will alone satisfy all of our audience! /e32008neverforget

Woulda been if it were on the level of AC:WW or AC:NL...

 

[fabricated backlash]

When was that?
When they cut into the dev time for WW that was ridiculed for its art style?
When they delayed the shit out of Zelda TP?
When they released Fire Emblem because they had nothing else to release or in the long drought when nothing at all was relased?



It's true that GTA IV literally buried the Wii and the month it was released ps3 and 360 sold each twice as much as the Wii...

Yeah the GC is seen with massive rose tinted glasses in hindsight. It had the worst 3d Mario, massive delays and software droughts. The wii even with it's Wii brand focus had better and steadier (crazy to think about that) support.
Yeah some IPs went missing, but overall it was just better.

 

[C4Lukins]

The inability for some of you to make a correlation between Pikmin 3 delay and and a decrease in forecasting is just ... Wow.

Sorry, I mean Nintendo is DOOMED !!!

I doubt many people are expecting Pikmin 3 to have much of an effect either way. I love the series, but it was never a huge seller as I recall, and nowhere in the realm of 10 million plus selling games that Nintendo has with just about every console. I do not think your die hard fan is waiting for that title to hop in. They are already buying the console.

 

[Kenka]

Again, now that I see the WiiU, I wonder where all their past R&D expenses went to. All in HD graphics middleware for all their teams ?

 

[SoulPlaya]

Ah alright, thanks.

So, shipped:

US: 1.32
Japan: 0.83
Europe: 0.9

Sold:
US: 0.89
Japan: 0.64
Europe: Hard to tell, was 0.08 in the UK so maybe something around 0.3 at best.

If this is true, then damn.

 

[NateDrake]

Software stream seems to be better on handhelds, generally. Maybe because the smaller projects are held to less rigid schedules.

I still hold hope Vita and 3DS software gets standard pricing of $30-$35 soon. $40 for high-end stuff is fine, but $30 is a sweet point for portable software.

 

[ahm998]

Nintendo can solve this issue by announced Metal gear solid 5 exclusive or Resident Evil 2 Remake exclusive.

Then Wii U will disappear from Earth like a hero

 

[Resilient]

I don't understand that statement?


Are you stating Pikmin 3 was delay had to do with the lower forecast? and that should be obvious?

....or are you being sarcastic in that Pikmin 3 is so amazing it'll boost sales....


....it's 3AM my sarcasm detector is shut down....but yeah, Pikmin 3 will be awesome...yeah

The former. Too many posters take these numbers at face value and then continue to make forecasts. Yes. Very good "analysts".

 

[Box of Bunnies]

If they can avoid the huge droughts the Gamecube had and try to continue with and they continue to do crossovers like they stated that they want to they should be able to at least do ok with the Wii U.

Not even the Wii, the fifth best selling system of all time that moved nearly 5x as many units as the Gamecube, could avoid droughts. Either Nintendo need to get their shit together with third parties or splash a ton of that Wii cash on new studios/pumping out more games from the ones they already have or they'll be looking at another "supplementary system for the enthusiasts and Nintendo fans" end.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I doubt many people are expecting Pikmin 3 to have much of an effect either way. I love the series, but it was never a huge seller as I recall, and nowhere in the realm of 10 million plus selling games that Nintendo has with just about every console. I do not think your die hard fan is waiting for that title to hop in. They are already buying the console.

I wonder what kind of push Nintendo plans on giving Pikmin 3. I was pleasantly surprised at how it was given first billing at E3 2012, like they wanted to turn it into another mascot.

 

[SmokyDave]

Forecasts lowered left & right but they managed to stay in the black. Bit of a mixed bag then.

3DS at 30 millions in less than 2 years = Nintendo caught lightning in a bottle a third time in a row.

Reaching such a critical mass was extremely important, because now kids who don't have a 3DS know friends who do, and you can bet it will be their next birthday/christmas present.

Despite the rough time ahead comments we can read on GAF, 3DS is now sure to follow the DS path to success.

So Nintendo can concentrate on Wii U. I'll leave that to another post.

'A rough road ahead' referred to the Wii-U, not the 3DS.

 

[OzPinoy]

Pretty sure this has been debunked. I think the biggest reason for their turnaround is the weakening of yen. The new Japanese government took measures to ensure their companies do better and it shows.

If I'm wrong please feel free to correct me on this assumption

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=500763 - Nope nintendo selling at a loss

 

[Hero]

With GTA 5 on PS3/X360? Nobody will care about WiiU...

The majority of gamers that care about playing GTA 5 either already have a PS3/360 or wouldn't have been interested in the Wii U to begin with. It's not like that game is going to come out and nothing else is going to sell for a month.

Iwata said that they're showing off 3D Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, and Wii U Party (or w/e the Mario Party successor is called) at E3, which is in June.

That pretty much kills the chances of any major Nintendo release until the fall or winter.

Aside from the stuff that has already been announced, which isn't going to push systems (Bayo 2, Pikmin 3, W101). Feel free to quote this and ridicule me in six months, but regardless of the quality of those games, they just aren't system sellers.

Look at the Wii's best selling titles. Most of them are party games, mixed with a few Mario titles.

The big hitters won't land until the holiday season, that much is true. It's not even about games like Pikmin 3 or Wonderful 101 being individual system sellers but Nintendo having a diverse portfolio of games for people to buy. The more games they have out the more likely it will be that someone sees enough value in purchasing the hardware.

You also left out Wii U Fit, which will most likely not come close to the original but should sell decently.

Going into holiday 2013 I think if the Wii U has managed 6-8 million units they'll come out okay there. I'm also accounting for the likelihood of a price drop, as I don't think Nintendo would be naive enough to have their system sell for 350 next to Sony and Microsoft's offerings unless they price themselves out of the competition.

 

[Baconsammy]

They cut the forecasts of both the 3DS and Wii U and people say "well that's not too bad". Yeah, that is in fact the very definition of bad. I expected the Wii U forecast to get cut, but not by that much. Didn't expect to see 3DS get cut, but I guess it makes sense since the only region it went up year over year during the holidays was Japan. Maybe they'll make a push with pricing etc to win back some of the casuals that jumped ship.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

These are solid numbers, not breath taking, but solid. Returning to profit at this time is impressive.

So despite all the experts here, no doom, and the Wii U will sell much more q3/q4 when the games start arriving.

 

[Roman]

As expected the biggest failure here is Wii U software. That cut is enormous, but realistic now.

 

[grimshawish]

WiiU isn't a terrible number. Not deaths door but not great either.

What was Nintendo's profit forecast? Was it not less than what they got this quarter? Good that their profiting though.

They don't want to keep failing forecasts. I know I suspect the 3DS is probably down to NoA's bad November.

 

[grimshawish]

They cut the forecasts of both the 3DS and Wii U and people say "well that's not too bad". Yeah, that is in fact the very definition of bad. I expected the Wii U forecast to get cut, but not by that much. Didn't expect to see 3DS get cut, but I guess it makes sense since the only region it went up year over year during the holidays was Japan. Maybe they'll make a push with pricing etc to win back some of the casuals that jumped ship.

They went up in France, and we don't know enough about elsewhere. You can't base everythong on the UK.

 

[B.O.O.M]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=500763 - Nope nintendo selling at a loss

No I didn't mean the selling at a loss bit, I was referring to profit with a one game statement. I'm certain that was debunked later on.

Actually found it here ya go

http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_22013695

So nope the number of games they need to sell is more than one and we don't know how many.

 

[C4Lukins]

I wonder what kind of push Nintendo plans on giving Pikmin 3. I was pleasantly surprised at how it was given first billing at E3 2012, like they wanted to turn it into another mascot.

They now that audience pretty well. I do think it is an awesome game, but it has had the visibility more comparable to the Luigi games or recent Metroid. Depending on all the bells and whistles Nintendo can throw at it, maybe they could make it a much bigger franchise with some great marketing. I just do not believe that at this point Pikmin 3 is anything more then a blip when it comes down to people considering purchasing a new system. And when forecasting future Wii U sales, I do not think analysts are seeing it as having much impact delayed or not.

 

[Baconsammy]

WiiU isn't a terrible number. Not deaths door but not great either.

What was Nintendo's profit forecast? Was it not less than what they got this quarter? Good that their profiting though.

They don't want to keep failing forecasts. I know I suspect the 3DS is probably down to NoA's bad November.

A huge part of those losses had to be the R&D for the 3DS and Wii U while simultaneously seeing the Wii have its sales numbers drop off a cliff due to poor support. The reason sites will express concerns is because Nintendo just cut the forecasts of the two pieces of hardware it's pinning its hopes on. The assumption was that software would reverse that trend with the 3DS, and in Japan it sure looks like it did, just not anywhere else. We probably won't see a drastic turn-around in Wii U sales for another 11-12 months.

They went up in France, and we don't know enough about elsewhere. You can't base everythong on the UK.

Isn't it easy to tell, though, by looking at the weekly sales charts that come in from around Europe and the packed-in game isn't even charting?(Unlike NPDs, they appear to count packins over in Europe).