I said earlier in the thread the floor is probably 40 million now.
But above that is a fool's errand to predict with much certainty right now. It has still yet to see a single holiday, and has spent most of its life supply constrained in most of the world. All we know about
current demand is that it is more than supply.
If I had to make a call, I'd say 80 million+. And it smells like a 100 million device. to me, for a few reasons:
- Nintendo's development consolidated on a single platform - a force that hasn't been seen in 30 years, and they've now had 20 years of practice carrying platforms basically alone too. They sold 250 million Wii/DS basically alone, nobody else even comes close in potential clout.
- Extremely appealing hardware - much better than 3DS or Wii U, and in many ways better than DS and Wii. The console itself is great, people are loving playing anything on it.
- New breakout IP from Nintendo is likely - they just keep doing this. Even the Wii U had Splatoon. If the Switch gets its own 'Wii Sports/Brain Training' type cultural phenomenon game, all bets are off. Or even an existing IP can explode to the next level with a new spin or focus - see Animal Crossing Wild World or Mario Kart Wii (GTA3 and GTA5 are third party examples of this - hitting a whole new order of magnitude with an existing franchise)
- Multiple hardware iterations - it is like a handheld console in one significant way - it can be revised to be smaller, cheaper and feature diverse with a material impact on the machine. Unlike a redesign like a PS4 Slim, which does not affect gameplay. A cheap handheld only revision with integrated controls for kids to play Pokemon is assured IMO.
- Multiple hardware purchases per household - for the same reason as above.
That said, it's not guaranteed. Other things could come onto the market to steal the thunder (see Kinect which became the 'new Wii'). Maybe the market as a whole is in a further contraction phase - Destiny 2's performance is a possible sign of saturation. Maybe a new breakout hit or idea happens elsewhere, PS4, Xbox, iPad who knows.
I think Nintendo have a killer hand, but you are still not guaranteed to win even with a full house.