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November 2012 NPD (U.S.) Predictions, including Wii U launch - closes December 3

M

Miles X

Member
jvm said:
I don't know if folks will feel today's column at Gamasutra will be relevant, but I'll leave it here anyway.

The table:
black-friday-wii-data.png


Last year the Xbox 360 did 57% of its November sales during BF week (in line with Wii). I could see that going up this year. If it were 60% then we'd be looking at 1.25 million Xbox 360 systems in November.

Also, I was reminded that the Wii launched right before a leap week month (January 2007, five weeks instead of the usual four) and Wii U is doing the same thing (January 2013). This means that they both essentially had particularly long runs up to Xmas because of where BF fell in the retail calendar.
Click to expand...

Thanks, great work as always. I think given every week before BF had a huge game for 360, that it won't see as big a share for BF as we do Wii and PS3. What are your predictions for PS3 BF by the way? I reckon around 400k, and 700k for the month. Down 100k and 200k respectively.

Also you totally need to do something on 360 Vs. PS2 in the states.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Sony's PR for Black Fridays results in past years was terrible. They did an "up X% over previous week" kind of crap one year. It was maddening.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Very surprised 360 was down 210k (though they didn't include Saturday in their estimations for some reason?) yet PS3 was up.

I still imagin the first 3 weeks were down, they'll be down the least % terms and in sheer units the least YOY though.

Probably serves MS right for being so persistant on price, it should have had a baseline price cut to $149 now, going 4 years without one is just arrogance.

Edit - actually this goes hand in hand with what JVM was saying in his latest article, how people are waiting more and more for BF deals. The PS3 $199 bundle was for two days only whereas the $50 off the 360 is for the entire holiday season.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
Sony's PR for Black Fridays results in past years was terrible. They did an "up X% over previous week" kind of crap one year. It was maddening.
Click to expand...

There was a year where they counted 5 weeks including the week after the NPD period ended and gave that number. Made some some interesting guesstimating on predictions that year. Think it might've been North America, too. :lol This year is much, much better from Sony. :)

HollovVpo1nt said:
I wonder how much Forza Horizon and Halo 4 sold.
Click to expand...

Not in Top 10 and 3.3m, would be my guess.
 
R

Road

Member
Dynopia said:
Very surprised 360 was down 210k (though they didn't include Saturday in their estimations for some reason?) yet PS3 was up.
Click to expand...

There's some Sony Spin(TM) there when they said "bundle sales increased 15%". Logic would say if sales of all PS3 models sales were up, they would just say that PS3 hardware sales were up. So I'm guessing overall PS3 sold less this BF week than last year's.

jvm said:
Sony's PR for Black Fridays results in past years was terrible. They did an "up X% over previous week" kind of crap one year. It was maddening.
Click to expand...

That one must be in PR 101, considering Nintendo did the same for 3DS last year.
 
M

Miles X

Member
donny2112 said:
Not in Top 10 and 3.3m, would be my guess.
Click to expand...

Interesting, despite first week revenue being up 10% and the last week of the month being Black Friday (with MS saying Halo 4 doing beyond their expectations) vs last week in September when the game must have been trailing. The week sandwiched in between launch and BF probably did well being a Nov week, despite being aginst BO2.

If it did just 3.3m same as Reach then that's a massive failure imo.

Road said:
There's some Sony Spin(TM) there when they said "bundle sales increased 15%". Logic would say if sales of all PS3 models sales were up, they would just say that PS3 hardware sales were up. So I'm guessing overall PS3 sold less this BF week than last year's.
Click to expand...

So we don't know last years BF numbers then?

Very good point though, that 295% increase for PS+ must account for much of that 9% rise YOY.
 
M

Miles X

Member
donny2112 said:
Same as Halo 3, same as Halo 2. Thinking there's a trend here. :p
Click to expand...

Halo 2 did 3.3m as well? That's just spooky. Seriously though whilst 3.3m is great, Reach and Halo 3 had the upcoming holiday season to garner more sales. Halo 4 is IN the holiday season, in a month it'll be over and sales will be declining fast. If it posts 3.3m this Nov the lifetime total won't come close to either Reach or 3.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Dynopia said:
Halo 2 did 3.3m as well? That's just spooky.
Click to expand...

It was back before NPD started combining SKUs per platform, so most remember it as the regular edition's 1.8m, but the LE did 1.5m, too. Retroactively applying the heinous NPD method of combining SKUs, Halo's been flat in its launch month the last three iterations with one in November and two in September. Yes, spooky. :lol

Dynopia said:
If it posts 3.3m this Nov the lifetime total won't come close to either Reach or 3.
Click to expand...

Halo 3 was before CoD took over, so it probably got a whole lot higher than Reach. Reach might be more attainable, then. Are there updated shipment numbers for the two?
 
M

Miles X

Member
donny2112 said:
It was back before NPD started combining SKUs per platform, so most remember it as the regular edition's 1.8m, but the LE did 1.5m, too. Retroactively applying the heinous NPD method of combining SKUs, Halo's been flat in its launch month the last three iterations with one in November and two in September. Yes, spooky. :lol



Halo 3 was before CoD took over, so it probably got a whole lot higher than Reach. Reach might be more attainable, then. Are there updated shipment numbers for the two?
Click to expand...

Halo 3 definitely did better than Reach, last set of numbers put Halo 3 10m+ and Reach 7m.
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
It's the crapshoot month. From biggest selling to least selling:

[360] 1000k
[PS3] 700k
[3DS] 610k
[WIU] 600k
[WII] 550k
[NDS] 500k
[PSV] 200k
 
A

archnemesis

Member
[360] 1180k
[3DS] 520k
[PS3] 720k
[PSV] 190k
[WII] 520k
[WIU] 420k

@Delusibeta: You have to fix the formating of your 360 prediction to 1000k, 1,000,000 or 1000000. You also have incorrect tags for Vita, Wii U, and Wii (if the parser is case-sensitive).
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[360] 1250K
[PS3] 690K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 425K
[WII] 400K
[PSV] 220K

Away from data so will revise these later. Revised.

Yes, I was wrong ... looks like PSV over 1mm for the year. Good for everyone! It is a delightful piece of hardware. Waiting for end of work period to begin a real game like Uncharted.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Road said:
Yeah, I just found the original 2006 PR and it mentions the Americas.

This time (if we are to trust the person who wrote the article), it's US only.

Edit: This article is claiming 6.4 million 3DS LTD. (For reference, I have 5.9 million NPD for last month. If the article is right, it's probably from Nintendo's internal tracking).
Click to expand...

Yeah, since NPD didn't release numbers, this is Nintendo internal tracking. And this is another time where the internal tracking differs from NPD.

DS LTD after 2 full years for NPD - 6.6 millions

Last three months of the second year
August 2006 - 278k
September 2006 - 403k
October 2006 - 360k

Total for last three months: 1.041.000

Then, DS first 21 months - 5.559.000

Since Nintendo said 3DS LTD after 21 months is around 1 million higher than DS's result after the same period, this means 3DS LTD according to NPD should be let's say 6.550.000

Given 3DS LTD until October 2012 is around 5.900.000 units, this means 3DS did 600-650k for November.
 
D

donny2112

Member
900K is around 1 million. Plus there's the whole "they might have went back and included Wal-Mart data directly now." *shrugs*

~3 hours left to predict.
 
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