Shouldn't 1.1 million be around 1 million too? XD
Seriously, I don't think the difference is that much between "around 1 million" and 1 million
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November 2012 NPD (U.S.) Predictions, including Wii U launch - closes December 3
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Shouldn't 1.1 million be around 1 million too? XD
Seriously, I don't think the difference is that much between "around 1 million" and 1 million
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Nearly forgot this month:
[360] 1170k
[3DS] 520k
[PS3] 780k
[PSV] 240k
[WII] 350k
[WIU] 450k
Not really confident.
[360] 1170k
[3DS] 520k
[PS3] 780k
[PSV] 240k
[WII] 350k
[WIU] 450k
Not really confident.
Damn. That's one hell of a typo. Hopefully this doesn't affect my standings too much.
Yeah it's terrible, 800k 3DS too with a 250k BF week....the guy hasn't even read the official PRs by Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft...and he's paid for the job LOL.
Are people mixing Jesse Divnich of EEDAR up with Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company? I don't get it.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Numbers in 6(?) hours, hype!
grimshawish
Banned
Reggie's truth to lie ratio shall be tested...
Kacho
Member
Oh shit! Awesome. For some reason I thought they would be released next Tuesday.
Father_Brain
Banned
NPDpocalypse imminent!
Well, the impact will be diluted somewhat by the fact that all three hardware manufacturers released Black Friday numbers last week, but the numbers for the whole month will still be interesting. NPD's trackers are more reliable, after all.
Well, the impact will be diluted somewhat by the fact that all three hardware manufacturers released Black Friday numbers last week, but the numbers for the whole month will still be interesting. NPD's trackers are more reliable, after all.
Thanks. Yeah, I'm not sure Jesse2040 always pays attention to the PR announcements when he does his predictions. 170K for Wii when Nintendo already posted 300K just for Black Friday would be an example of that. Pretty sure that kind of thing has happened before. Pachter definitely does pay attention to the PR numbers, though.
metalslimer
Member
Most interested in the 3DS and Vita month numbers. We already pretty much know what the Wii U number will be and honestly the PS3/360 are about as far from interesting as you can get at this point.
thehypocrite
Member
There will be meltdowns.
metalslimer
Member
I guess Wii U software should be interesting, although the combined SKUs will probably not let any of them show up.
I don't see how. People pretty much already know what to expect. PS3/360 is going to be the usual. We got BF Vita sales, so the only question about that is how much it did the rest of the month. 3DS sales are going to be shitty compared to last year, and we got basic Wii U numbers.
I don't see how. People pretty much already know what to expect. PS3/360 is going to be the usual. We got BF Vita sales, so the only question about that is how much it did the rest of the month. 3DS sales are going to be shitty compared to last year, and we got basic Wii U numbers.
grimshawish
Banned
Not meltdowns, no. 'Meltdowns' since we already know what to expect.
Unless Reggie is an even bigger liar than we know.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Kacho
Member
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
Wii did 476k first NPD month, WiiU is around 400k. Only the uninformed will have meltdowns. December is the potential meltdown month on the WiiU front, where it needs to sale 604k just to match the Wii's first December.
If that were to happen, the results may not be pretty but it'll be amazing to watch.
grimshawish
Banned
Doubt it will, but also doubt this will mean meltdowns. Just 'meltdowns'.
Just lambs who aren't as 'concerned' as they might make out to be.
If its dreadful, expect some. If they're great expect some people not to realise their meltingdown
metalslimer
Member
That number was definitely supply constraint problems. If Wii U can't hit over that in December, something went terribly wrong.Wii would easily hit over a million if the supply had been there
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Posted this in another thread, but here's some NPD software sales I managed to dig up for previous console launches for comparison:
Xbox 360 (Nov 2005) 325,000
01 Call of Duty 2: 260,000
02 Madden NFL 06
03 Perfect Dark Zero: 160,000
04 Need for Speed: Most Wanted
05 Project Gotham Racing 3: 79,000
06 Kameo: Elements of Power: 73,000
07 Condemned: Criminal Origins
08 Quake 4: 57,000
09 NBA Live 06
10 Gun
xx Ridge Racer 6: 9,000
~1.2m total games sold
PlayStation 3 (Nov 2006) 197,000
01 Resistance: Fall of Man: 65,000
02 Madden NFL 07
03 Call of Duty 3: 24,000
04 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
05 Ridge Racer 7
06 Need for Speed: Carbon
07 Tony Hawk's Project 8
08 NBA 2K7
09 NBA 07
10 Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom
~215k total games sold
Wii (Nov 2006) 476,000
01 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess: 412,000
02 Red Steel: 107,000
03 Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz
04 Rayman Raving Rabbids: over 50,000
05 Call of Duty 3: 48,000
06 Madden NFL 07
07 Trauma Center: Second Opinion
08 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
09 Excite Truck
10 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2
~1m total games sold (not counting Wii Sports)
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
True. PS3 sold right under 491k for reference. I don't see it coming close to a million, but I would love to be wrong. 600k is still a healthy number though (IMO).
metalslimer
Member
I don't know about healthy because it's going to drop right after Christmas, so if there is not that much demand in the holidays, it's not going to suddenly get better right after. I think a good number would be 800-900k.
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
I don't think it will drop off as much as some think. I think word of mouth for the casuals after the holidays might prop it close to 300k for January, then it might hover around 200-250k for the next two-three months. Basically, better then PS3 but worse then Wii. I believe the months after that, when the newness wears off, is what is going to make or break the console.
As for 800-900k, I would see that as a strong showing for the WiiU in December. The market the WiiU is aiming at winning over (the one that made the Wii such a hit) is much more saturated now, and WiiU is much more a product that needs hands-on time to move units then the Wii ever was.
Edit: I had forgotten that the PS3 sold sub 100k three straight months in a row during its first year on the market (April-June 2007). If WiiU pulls similar months then NPD threads might just bloom again.
Frankfurter
Member
What makes you think that Nintendo will actually ship sth. like 1.4 million consoles from launch till the end of year just to the US? They'll probably ship sth. like 3.5 million till the end of the year worldwide. I really don't see a potential for ~1.4 million sellthrough for the US alone (also considering that a considerable amount of those shipments will be in the channel).
It'll probably be like 1 million for USA/Europe/Japan (maybe a bit more for the US and a bit less for Europa/Japan), with ~300k for the rest of the world and another ~200k in transit (shipped as by the term, but not yet on retail shelves).
It'll probably be like 1 million for USA/Europe/Japan (maybe a bit more for the US and a bit less for Europa/Japan), with ~300k for the rest of the world and another ~200k in transit (shipped as by the term, but not yet on retail shelves).
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
Nintendo is suppose to ship 3.5 million worldwide before the end of the year and another 2 million before the end of March 2013. I would imagine that at least 1.5 million of those 3.5 million units is going to NA, but that is just a guess.
metalslimer
Member
Yep, my guess is 1 million to Japan, 1.5 to the US, and 1 to Other. Maybe a little less to Japan and more to Other.
Wii U will not sell as well as Wii in the first few years, at least. Okay to have the meltdowns now, then.
metalslimer
Member
Wii U will not sell as well as Wii in the first few years, at least. Okay to have the meltdowns now, then.
Oh i know it definitely won't. But I do think it should have a better December. Honestly I think the only way meltdowns happen is if Wii U falls below 400k in December.
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
Meltdowns would be justified if that happens (IMO).
Yeah meltdowns for much lower than Wii would be expected. Much higher than Wii doesn't really seem likely with supply. (See GameCube, Xbox, PS2, <insert other home consoles> first Decembers.) So it's mediocre with people trying to read too much into too little (e.g. "It was 2K higher/lower than Wii so that means sellout/bomba!") or really low obvious bomba as options pretty much.
walking fiend
Member
What are the chances that Nintendo is actually attracting the blue ocean people once again?
I mean, Wii U was selected as the Times best tech at #2! just behind iPhone 5; I really didn't expect that.
I mean, Wii U was selected as the Times best tech at #2! just behind iPhone 5; I really didn't expect that.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah meltdowns for much lower than Wii would be expected. Much higher than Wii doesn't really seem likely with supply. (See GameCube, Xbox, PS2, <insert other home consoles> first Decembers.) So it's mediocre with people trying to read too much into too little (e.g. "It was 2K higher/lower than Wii so that means sellout/bomba!") or really low obvious bomba as options pretty much.
I think supply for December should be much higher than that for the Wii, Nintendo really seems to have focused on NA over Europe and Japan for allotment of systems
They also gave Xenoblade #2 game of the year. They seem much more open to Nintendo products than other video game outlets for mainstream news,
fabfour64xx
Banned
Man, if the Vita can't even reach 200k, it's going to have a tough time ever finding relevance.
pharmboy044
Member
It did 160K during Black Friday. I'm pretty sure it will hit at least 200K.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Gamers will always buy Nintendo systems for Nintendo games. It is everything else that they have been trying to win back since the SNES.
Ein Bear
Member
Damn, that attach rate for Twilight Princess is crazy.