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November 2012 NPD (U.S.) Predictions, including Wii U launch - closes December 3

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, December 3rd. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 28-November 24 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 6th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 1300K       [360] 1.3m
[360] 1,300,000   [360] 1.300.000
[360] 1300000     [360] - 1300000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Christmas shopping season + Black Friday
Black Friday deals for almost all consoles: 360 @ $150, PS3 @ $199, Wii @ $89, PSV @ $199 - 2-3 days
Wii new bundle @ $130 in stores fully by Oct. 28 - 28 days
Halo 4 launch + console bundle - 19 days
Wii U launch @ $300/$350 - 7 days

November's Results - thanks to jvm, John Harker, and a variety of angles

jvm said:
Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
Click to expand...
John Harker said:
3DS is a chunk too high,
Click to expand...

October 2011 NPD thread
November 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Edit:
Black Friday PR:
Nintendo: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nintendo-sells-400-000-wii-171028810.html
Wii U "400,000 units in its first six days of availability"
Wii sold 300K in BF week
3DS sold 250K in BF week and at ~6.4m LTD
Microsoft: http://majornelson.com/2012/11/27/xbox-360-black-friday-report/
360 sold 750K from Nov. 18-23
Sony (Nov 18-24):
http://gematsu.com/2012/11/sony-black-friday-sales-break-685000
525K PS3s
160K Vitas
"in North America" or maybe actually U.S. (link)
 
D

Drago

Member
[360] 1,450,000
[3DS] 750,000
[PS3] 1,100,000
[PSV] 250,000
[WII] 350,000
[WIU] 425,000

Just a few random guesses.
Edit: changing my 3DS number because there is no conceivable way it does so much given BF numbers
 
iamvin22

iamvin22

Industry Verified
[360] 1,500,000
[3DS] 975,000
[PS3] 1,300,000
[PSV] 300,000
[WII] 100,000
[WIU] 450,000


so what would be bad numbers for wiiu launch first month?
 
N

noobie

Banned
[360] 1,335,000
[3DS] 700,000
[PS3] 720,000
[PSV] 215,000
[WII] 395,000
[WIU] 425,000

Why people are predicting so high for PS3? did i miss something.? did something launched this month for PS3?
 
D

donny2112

Member
noobie said:
Why people are predicting so high for PS3? did i miss something.? did something launched this month for PS3?
Click to expand...

Haven't really thought about what to predict, but PS3 hit $199 for the last couple of days in the U.S. (for the first time?). A lot of people have been holding up that $199 price point as the launching point for the rest of the PS3's "10-year" plan, in their opinion, so maybe that's why?
 
M

Miles X

Member
Try not to call others predictions out as I don't wanna be that guy but, PS3 is not going to be up YOY, it already had an exceptionally good Nov last year, to be up on that when it's been down every month this year 30% - 40%?

[360] 1350k
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 775k
[PSV] 250k
[WII] 450k
[WIU] 430k

Edit 1 - Nintendo BF Results in, WiiU 400k~ Wii 300k~ 3DS 250k (ouch!) and DS 275k (lol)
 
R

Road

Member
Dynopia said:
Edit 1 - Nintendo BF Results in, WiiU 400k~ Wii 300k~ 3DS 250k (ouch!) and DS 275k (lol)
Click to expand...

Is that confirmed US only or NA?

For those predicting, have in mind Nintendo announced 600k Wii sold in the first week, but NPD numbers were only 475k.
 
dorkimoe

dorkimoe

Gold Member
I'm really interested in the Vita numbers after these big sales (the amazon bundle, and a few other bundles)
 
K

Kenka

Member
Market seems opaque to me but on an overall downward trend:


[360] 1,150,000
[3DS] 1,150,000
[PS3] 1,000,000
[PSV] 150,000
[WII] 350,000
[WIU] 475,000
 
M

Miles X

Member
Kenka said:
Market seems opaque to me but on an overall downward trend:


[360] 1,150,000
[3DS] 1,150,000
[PS3] 1,000,000
[PSV] 150,000
[WII] 350,000
[WIU] 475,000
Click to expand...

Did you see that 3DS only did 250k during BF week? That means you expect it to do 800k the previous 3 weeks lol.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
Road said:
Is that confirmed US only or NA?

For those predicting, have in mind Nintendo announced 600k Wii sold in the first week, but NPD numbers were only 475k.
Click to expand...

The numbers this time are US only, the numbers at wii launch were americas though Canada and a few sales elsewhere shouldn't account for all the NPD descrepency
 
R

Road

Member
frankie_baby said:
The numbers this time are US only, the numbers at wii launch were americas though Canada and a few sales elsewhere shouldn't account for all the NPD descrepency
Click to expand...

Yeah, I just found the original 2006 PR and it mentions the Americas.

This time (if we are to trust the person who wrote the article), it's US only.

Edit: This article is claiming 6.4 million 3DS LTD. (For reference, I have 5.9 million NPD for last month. If the article is right, it's probably from Nintendo's internal tracking).
 
D

donny2112

Member
[360] 1250K
[PS3] 725K
[3DS] 550K
[WII] 500K
[WIU] 420K
[PSV] 200K

Wii U: Not sure about that "first 6 days" comment, since it was available for 7 days. Maybe Saturday wasn't included?
3DS: LOL. Definitely needed a price drop, as their BF "deals" were pretty lousy.

Will update others after more PR fun. :p
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Yeah a lot of these 3DS predictions need changing. People also seem really confident Vita will make it to around 200k. If 3DS only sells around 500k, i highly doubt Vita does 2/5 of that.
 
D

donny2112

Member
metalslimer said:
If 3DS only sells around 500k, i highly doubt Vita does 2/5 of that.
Click to expand...

It's the new system, and it finally had a decent price for the first time ever (i.e. $200 w/ memory card and good game), whereas 3DS had pathetic "$20 off" I-could've-got-this-sale-in-August "sales." The fact we're debating whether it was able to sell 200K in November is telling, though.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
donny2112 said:
It's the new system, and it finally had a decent price for the first time ever (i.e. $200 w/ memory card and good game), whereas 3DS had pathetic "$20 off" I-could've-got-this-sale-in-August "sales." The fact we're debating whether it was able to sell 200K in November is telling, though.
Click to expand...

Did people actually see those 199 bundles moving though? All the interest i saw seemed to be in the same priced/cheaper PS3/360.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
donny2112 said:
It makes it a lot easier when it's so low to begin with, though. *insert Vita "rocket" article from MC thread*
Click to expand...

True, maybe I'm putting way too much emphasis on my own anecdotal evidence, but it just going off what I've seen interest in Vita has not really improved 5x. Black Friday, Moms were getting their kids Wiis, 360s, 3DS, etc and no one even seemed to know what a Vita was. Don't want to cloud up the thread any more though but it will be interesting to see.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Just a tip for Wii predictions. Last BF Wii did 500k for the week, meaning 360k for the previous 3 weeks (coming off a 250k October).

October just gone Wii did around 45k? I can't image Wii jumped leaps and bounds in the first two weeks of November, it was doing 12k - 15k late October afterall.
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
donny2112 said:
It's the new system, and it finally had a decent price for the first time ever (i.e. $200 w/ memory card and good game), whereas 3DS had pathetic "$20 off" I-could've-got-this-sale-in-August "sales." The fact we're debating whether it was able to sell 200K in November is telling, though.
Click to expand...

It has a chance at reaching 200K, but I'd be surprised if it does much over that. I think the actual number will be closer to 150K, though.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Dynopia said:
October just gone Wii did around 45k? I can't image Wii jumped leaps and bounds in the first two weeks of November, it was doing 12k - 15k late October afterall.
Click to expand...

New price and bundles were widely available starting the first day of the November NPD period. Should make some difference from October numbers on that alone.
 
R

Road

Member
Microsoft: Xbox 360 sold more than 750,000 consoles in the U.S. (Sunday, Nov. 18 – Friday, Nov. 23)

(For comparison: last year, 960,000.)
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
I don't know if folks will feel today's column at Gamasutra will be relevant, but I'll leave it here anyway.

The table:
black-friday-wii-data.png


Last year the Xbox 360 did 57% of its November sales during BF week (in line with Wii). I could see that going up this year. If it were 60% then we'd be looking at 1.25 million Xbox 360 systems in November.

Also, I was reminded that the Wii launched right before a leap week month (January 2007, five weeks instead of the usual four) and Wii U is doing the same thing (January 2013). This means that they both essentially had particularly long runs up to Xmas because of where BF fell in the retail calendar.
 
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