What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, December 3rd. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: October 28-November 24 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 6th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST
IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.
Format:
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]
[WIU]
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Christmas shopping season + Black Friday
Black Friday deals for almost all consoles: 360 @ $150, PS3 @ $199, Wii @ $89, PSV @ $199 - 2-3 days
Wii new bundle @ $130 in stores fully by Oct. 28 - 28 days
Halo 4 launch + console bundle - 19 days
Wii U launch @ $300/$350 - 7 days
November's Results - thanks to jvm, John Harker, and a variety of angles
October 2011 NPD thread
November 2011 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
Edit:
Black Friday PR:
Nintendo: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nintendo-sells-400-000-wii-171028810.html
Wii U "400,000 units in its first six days of availability"
Wii sold 300K in BF week
3DS sold 250K in BF week and at ~6.4m LTD
Microsoft: http://majornelson.com/2012/11/27/xbox-360-black-friday-report/
360 sold 750K from Nov. 18-23
Sony (Nov 18-24):
http://gematsu.com/2012/11/sony-black-friday-sales-break-685000
525K PS3s
160K Vitas
"in North America" or maybe actually U.S. (link)
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, December 3rd. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: October 28-November 24 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 6th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST
IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.
Format:
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]
[WIU]
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[360] 1300K [360] 1.3m
[360] 1,300,000 [360] 1.300.000
[360] 1300000 [360] - 1300000
Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Christmas shopping season + Black Friday
Black Friday deals for almost all consoles: 360 @ $150, PS3 @ $199, Wii @ $89, PSV @ $199 - 2-3 days
Wii new bundle @ $130 in stores fully by Oct. 28 - 28 days
Halo 4 launch + console bundle - 19 days
Wii U launch @ $300/$350 - 7 days
November's Results - thanks to jvm, John Harker, and a variety of angles
Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
3DS is a chunk too high,
October 2011 NPD thread
November 2011 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
Edit:
Black Friday PR:
Nintendo: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nintendo-sells-400-000-wii-171028810.html
Wii U "400,000 units in its first six days of availability"
Wii sold 300K in BF week
3DS sold 250K in BF week and at ~6.4m LTD
Microsoft: http://majornelson.com/2012/11/27/xbox-360-black-friday-report/
360 sold 750K from Nov. 18-23
Sony (Nov 18-24):
http://gematsu.com/2012/11/sony-black-friday-sales-break-685000
525K PS3s
160K Vitas
"in North America" or maybe actually U.S. (link)