serversurfer
Member
Fair enough. Thanks. <3
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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
EdReedFan20
Member
It's true that PS4 is behind Wii. But the fact of the matter is PS2 was the best selling console of all time and PS4 is currently outpacing it. If the Wii didn't hit a wall, it could've easily blasted past PS2, but in my opinion, the Wii crowd shifted to iPhones. If the PS4 continues as is, for the foreseeable future, it will eventually outpace Wii. I feel like PS4 is speeding up.
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
I'm really uncertain about this, but fingers crossed!
[3DS] 430K
[PS4] 1280k
[WIU] 325k
[XB1] 1070K
[3DS] 430K
[PS4] 1280k
[WIU] 325k
[XB1] 1070K
slavesnyder
Member
It will depend on two things:
VR and NX
Does anyone know what to make of Major Nelson's info from his blog, and how it will impact the sales totals from Nov? Since he's just talking about BF alone, it's hard to extrapolate to the whole month, but this info has to be telling.... building on their huge sales from last year with a 22% increase is no joke.
http://majornelson.com/2015/12/03/x...-records-windows-10-gaming-continues-to-rise/
"Worldwide Xbox Black Friday sales in the Xbox Store broke records with an increase of 57 percent across Xbox One and Xbox 360, global Xbox Live Gold subscriptions were up over 40 percent, and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S."
http://majornelson.com/2015/12/03/x...-records-windows-10-gaming-continues-to-rise/
"Worldwide Xbox Black Friday sales in the Xbox Store broke records with an increase of 57 percent across Xbox One and Xbox 360, global Xbox Live Gold subscriptions were up over 40 percent, and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S."
CosmicQueso
Member
So far, attempts have failed.
That's too bad. Hard to fathom their sales being lower for the month if BF week sales were up 22% but we'll soon see I guess.
To be fair, those sales include bundle, but NPD doen't.
So, withouth bundle it will most likely be < 600k. But i still think it will chart.
I remember you posted a chart awhile back showing that last year games 2-10(?) sold all about the same. What does that say about Pokemon, which took up two of those spots despite having its sales cut in two?
PS4 seems to be nice and steady. I doubt the specific bundled game matters as much as making the console cheap and looking like a good value.
CosmicQueso
Member
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
To those of you mentioning the PS4 sale ending on 12/19, perhaps that's done so that people will think twice about returning their $299 PS4 after seeing it for $349 in stores. After all, there is a staggering amount of returns seen in retail after Christmas in the weeks that follow it.
"Might as well keep it, now. I got it for cheaper."
"Might as well keep it, now. I got it for cheaper."
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Can we assume that nearly every PS4 sold means also one copy of NDC sold ?
With SW:BF and COD bundles? No.
I'd definitely say most. Black Friday would have been huge for the NDC
serversurfer
Member
Yeah, when it was the only bundle at $300, NDC probably had a near-100% attach rate with new hardware (assuming you count that as an attach at all). But now that the others are $300, if expect their sales are primarily being limited by available stock. Edit: Wasn't it just Star Wars at $300 though?
Maybe Kenzo was asking if we thought most new users were just grabbing NDC, whether it came with their bundle or not? Probably not, would be my guess. The NDC bundle didn't exactly set the charts on fire at $350, so I doubt there's a bunch of people willing to drop $60 on it over and above the cost of their bundle. I mean, I don't think it's selling terribly, but I'd be surprised if it was flying off the shelves or anything like that.
Hah. I guess it says more about Pokemon that it's able to carry the 3DS by itself if it has to, at least for now.
Why is 19th special?
Last Saturday before Xmas?
serversurfer
Member
"Wait less than a week??" =/
anexanhume
Member
Yup. It's called "Super Saturday." Even bigger than Black Friday as a single shopping day.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-super-saturday-20141223-story.html
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
To be fair in even the best case scenario NX is as much of a threat to PS4 as N64 was to PS1.
serversurfer
Member
Ah, thanks. That makes a lot more sense than "the 19th." lol
3rdamention
Member
It may not make Top 10, and it it may make Top 5. There are so many variables because of November Shopping and Black Friday. The fact that Halo5 launched at the very end of October, is Microsofts flagship title with great response from reviewers and gamers, and that it will be popular on Christmas Lists, make me think it WILL make the top 10 in NPD for November.
I think it is pretty safe to Assume that you will see Fallout, COD, SW Battlefront, Minecraft, NBA2k, and Madden in the top 10 this month. I know people are down on SW Battlefront, but I have shared this a couple of times now, my students and the kids in my school are bonkers over Battlefront. That game is going to be on a LOT of Christmas Lists. So that definitely leaves room for Halo to get up in that Top 10. But you could always see some weird game pop up that was on sale that we weren't expecting. Like a WWE, Rockband/Guitar Hero, or Need for Speed or something crazy. Who knows? It will be interesting.
3rdamention
Member
There was a whole thread about that PR, and they broke it down, built it up, decoded it, encoded it, translated it, and more. Its should have any of the answers, and even more questions, that you are looking for!
slavesnyder
Member
It's not about being a threat. It's about being the new hot shit and slowing PS4 down. Sony's console will sell a lot, but to end up record breaking depends on some lucky circomstances.
Oh, forgot another one: length of this gen.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
PS4 is probably not going to surpass PS2 so what records are we talking about? I think it will surpass Wii and PS1 though.
slavesnyder
Member
Okay, I take it back. Someone stated it could surpass Wii. I think it's possible, but they have to be lucky.
PS2? Never.
anexanhume
Member
Link: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1150578&page=7
7th page has a good explanation of what's actually going on.
Update 2:
#4 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 (↓3)
#14 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront ()
#22 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate edition (↑1)
#26 / PS4: Uncharted the Nathan Drake collection (↓5)
#49 / XB1: Holidays bundle (↓3)
#87 / 3DS XL ()
CosmicQueso
Member
Do we have any avatar bets or anything else of excitement going on besides trying to translate MS PR without a Rosetta Stone? C'mon let's spice this thing up a bit. Who's eating a hat?
Cow Goes Moo
Member
the ps4 has a good chance to surpass ps2 ltd with china, mideast, and india coming into the mix.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
3 more days until the meltdowns commence!
Darth Smurf X
Member
Who has the bingo cards? Do we need to update them?
serversurfer
Member
I'd be up for an avatar bet if it meant we got confirmation about how MS measured their week. Any takers?
Funny you should mention that - I finished working on an updated version today.
Primethius
Banned
I'll take the hard bet and say that XB1 takes this month by around 100k or more.
No hat eating though but I could do something avatar related.
I know, it's the hardest bet ever.
I'll take the hard bet and say that XB1 takes this month by around 100k or more.
No hat eating though but I could do something avatar related.
I know, it's the hardest bet ever.
I seriously hope someone takes you up on this if only to eliminate one of the Geralt avatars. Their prevalence tends to make threads a bit confusing.
Primethius
Banned
Bahahaha, I suppose that's as good a reason as any. I've considered changing it several times but Geralts a boss, what can I do.
My avatar bet:
XB1 Nov+Dec 2014 ( 2.52m ) > PS4 Nov+Dec 2015
When i made this bet i always said i was not so sure, but only for fun i accepted.
I will probabily loss now but never say never. xD
About this NPD, who believe PS4 will sell more than 1.23 million?
At first, i would say PS4 was gonna sell 1.3m (before Oct NPD), but we all predicted a lot more, when i saw only 275k i dropped my prediction to 1.15m, and i made this bet.
I made a mistake xP
BUT, for my dear lucina, i still hope to win.
XB1 Nov+Dec 2014 ( 2.52m ) > PS4 Nov+Dec 2015
When i made this bet i always said i was not so sure, but only for fun i accepted.
I will probabily loss now
but never say never. xDAbout this NPD, who believe PS4 will sell more than 1.23 million?
At first, i would say PS4 was gonna sell 1.3m (before Oct NPD), but we all predicted a lot more, when i saw only 275k i dropped my prediction to 1.15m, and i made this bet.
I made a mistake xP
BUT, for my dear lucina, i still hope to win.
May I take this opportunity to suggest a radically different looking geralt then
:origin()/pre01/e05e/th/pre/f/2015/168/8/1/geralt_fast_sketch_color_by_ccornet-d8xpkfu.jpg)
At least with something like these it would be easy to differentiate you from the army of other Geralts.
Primethius
Banned
Wow, that's some good stuff. I appreciate it.
When I get home I'll whip something up and change it. I quite like the second one.
The army of confusing avatars has been weakened. I hereby declare this day victorious.
That's amazing. :O
Chobel
Member
Alright, I'm down. Avatar bet? The loser wears an avatar chosen by the winner for two weeks.
Welfare
Member
Sure.
