theprodigy
Member
if anything, given that last year's Wii U May+June total was 76k, I'll bet the combined total for the same time period this year won't be 300k, let alone one month
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NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
if anything, given that last year's Wii U May+June total was 76k, I'll bet the combined total for the same time period this year won't be 300k, let alone one month
Aquamarine
Member
It really is.
I'm surprised Sony hasn't announced an official discontinuation of new shipments of Vita hardware to North American retail stores.
10K is dead. It's really, REALLY dead. The PSP is discontinued and it sold half as well as the Vita this month. That's...that's the most disturbing part about it.
I guess they're banking on the new model to deliver in some capacity. But you're right...it's doubtful the new model will make any significant waves and I assume Sony knows that.
Gotta give them credit for keeping shipments alive this long, I guess. That digital support must be great to entice people into the PlayStation ecosystem...and it clearly makes Sony some good money.
Orthogonal
Member
For the Vita to gain any traction in the US it would need a substantial price cut and a big marketing push. I doubt SCEA is looking to do that at this point since they have been damn near apathetic to the Vita's image. It's also unlikely Sony can get the price low enough to spur real growth and not lose money on the device. I don't think they are going to push the Vita as a loss leader.
Shouldn't we wait till after the 2000 model launches to really say the Vita is dead in the west? The OLED models are pretty hard to find at most places.
What would you classify as not dead? Cos it's no where near Wii U levels and we're not looking too favourably on it either...
I'm saying let's wait till the refresh happens because you can't expect good sales when there's barely any decent stock anywhere.
Maybe I should have phrased that better.
After the refresh, what kind of sales performance should Vita maintain to not be called "dead"?
shinra-bansho
Member
Oh dear, are we really using supply constraint as a reason for the Vita's sales?
If there isn't stock in your local store it's presumably because retailers generally don't like stocking things that don't sell.
At 10K units, retailers are selling like half a unit a month.
If there isn't stock in your local store it's presumably because retailers generally don't like stocking things that don't sell.
At 10K units, retailers are selling like half a unit a month.
Mmmh...IIRC, PS4 is produced also in other factories, right? I remember how people talked about units made in Japan around launch, for example. I suppose it's possible some other units were produced in Japan during the Chinese New Year shutdown period and those have been shipped. Still, in the recent months, we've seen how US and UK have been the countries were Sony shipped more, with most of mainland Europe being really behind. Which makes sense, since US and UK were the strongest countries for MS, so beating from the start MS over there = beating MS full stop.
Goign by memory, Nowinstock and anecdotal impressions, this has been the situation for PS4 stock
January - No stock for Amazon, Best Buy, Gamestop, other sites (for the big majority of the month, and stock came only on Best Buy, and maybe Amazon); stock being in stores, but not all of them
February - No stock online (if not for a brief moment on Amazon); veeeeery slim stock at retail
March - First month where, starting especially from around March 10th, stock was available online on all major online retailers; stock being present seemingly more than in January
That's my basis for this assumption, and I'm feeling quite sure about the online availability's history, since it's been reported; less about stock in stores, since it's more anecdotal, but the tone was different in these months about stock in the wild.
Well, increases / drops from January to February to March have been like this in the past years, with a quite precise pattern, and 2014 doesn't seem to have different basis (tax refund in February, January being depressed coming from Holidays, etc. etc. ). So, external factors influence sales (shortages, big games, price drops, deals, etc.etc.). This year, we've seen an even bigger increase from January to February, probably due to the freezewave at the beginning of the year (which makes PS4 January result, in retrospective, even more remarkable).
And I know there are things that can't be predicted, not even with the greatest statistical system in the world. This is me trying a scientific approach to sales, + some personal ingredients, like the optimistic / pessimistic range, since there can be other external factors influencing: I want to see if, by using such a system, I can guess as well as possible. And Amazon, if filtered correctly, helps in guessing game sales ranges: that's how, by Amazon charts, seeing trends but filtering the infos and giving the exact context to the February charts, I estimated Bravely Default selling as much as Fire Emblem did during the first month, retail + digital (180,000)...and it even did slightly more :lol
I want to see if this isn't the classic lighting in a bottle, but a reliable system.
Of course, as in many things, there's also a 10% of luck needed, you need that too :lol
360 didn't exactly have first years that were leading to believe it would have sold that much. It was selling well, but it also had some down periods. But it had lots of years being in the market without a successor being released (8 years...8 years!!!) and, above all, since Kinect launch, it had lots of records months in 2011. So, not an usual market trajectory...which can be said it's been one of the main themes of last gens, and I suppose no one would disagree XD
Ah, if it weren't clear, these PS4 predictions are for April and can be related to how the platform could sell in the rest of the year, but they're not so long term, because we just can't know what can happen. Now, given how Sony failed in making their recent platform attractive to a more "casual" audience in US, so much that titles like Lego, Skylanders and Just Dance sold and are selling better on One than on PS4, I feel they won't obtain to realise the exact same "magic" Microsoft did with 360 and Kinect, but...what if they do? It can't be predicted, so it's foolish saying that it will never happen. And new groundbreaking hits not predictable?
The same when I say that One could suffer a lot in the next months in US: it's for 2014, over that it can't be said that much. When end-of-2014 sales will come, possibly accurate predictions for 2015 can start being made...now it's just too soon.
The first part of your post...I'm not getting it that much. I mean, Amazon registers preorders, yes. And actual sales reflect preorders most of the time. But, in Amazon March charts, we've had Titanfall sales (not preorders) v.s. Infamous (not preorders): then, in the month where Titanfall probably did around 2x inFamous (bundle excluded, since we're comparing game v.s. game), having inFamous over Titanfall doesn't reflect that much what really happened. But it's possible I didn't get what you really meant, so I'd be pleased if you explained it better. XD
Valkyria
Banned
Eh! We gave the world Tadeo Jones and Invizimals... XD. I'm sure there are other small markets where Vita is doing mediocre, maybe South East Asia or even Saudi Arabia (there was a thread last week about the best sellers there and the top was crowded with Vita games, I know small market).
About Amazon as a possible index for trends...
I don't know why people are saying that Amazing Spiderman 2 is going to be a strong release for PS4. Ok, it won't be released on One, and right now it's the most pre-ordered SKU, but, by looking at it, it doesn't seem like remarkable results.
As of 13:28 GMT
Amazing Spiderman 2 PS4 (59.99) - 374th
AS 2 One (59.99) - 1,262nd*
AS 2 360 (49.99) - 665th
AS2 PS3 (49.99) - 1,012nd
AS2 Wii U (49.99) - 4,792nd
AS2 3DS (29.99) - 4,598th
* - One SKU still has the April 29th release date, not changed yet
The game will be released on April 29th, just 3 days ahead of the movie. It'll certainly rise thanks to the movie, overall it shouldn't sell too badly, and PS4 version will be the lead SKU in the short term. But I don't believe it's exactly a game that will drive sales for the platform. Nor in April (due to the release date), neither in May.
Watchdogs is probably going to help sales in May AND June (release at the end of the month, again) in a good way. Mario Kart 8 could influence Wii U sales in June as well.
Mario Kart 8 - 38th
Watchdogs PS4 - 39th
Watchdogs One - 148th
Watchdogs PS3 - 733rd
Watchdogs 360 - 677th
I don't know why people are saying that Amazing Spiderman 2 is going to be a strong release for PS4. Ok, it won't be released on One, and right now it's the most pre-ordered SKU, but, by looking at it, it doesn't seem like remarkable results.
As of 13:28 GMT
Amazing Spiderman 2 PS4 (59.99) - 374th
AS 2 One (59.99) - 1,262nd*
AS 2 360 (49.99) - 665th
AS2 PS3 (49.99) - 1,012nd
AS2 Wii U (49.99) - 4,792nd
AS2 3DS (29.99) - 4,598th
* - One SKU still has the April 29th release date, not changed yet
The game will be released on April 29th, just 3 days ahead of the movie. It'll certainly rise thanks to the movie, overall it shouldn't sell too badly, and PS4 version will be the lead SKU in the short term. But I don't believe it's exactly a game that will drive sales for the platform. Nor in April (due to the release date), neither in May.
Watchdogs is probably going to help sales in May AND June (release at the end of the month, again) in a good way. Mario Kart 8 could influence Wii U sales in June as well.
Mario Kart 8 - 38th
Watchdogs PS4 - 39th
Watchdogs One - 148th
Watchdogs PS3 - 733rd
Watchdogs 360 - 677th
shinra-bansho
Member
On the PS4, I'm not really sure what your contention is, Mpl.
Weekly sales only increased 10K a week, in a monthly transition where they typically decrease and based on precedent "should" have decreased by 14K.
Is that somehow cause for concern?
And had it instead increased by 12K a week and hit 400K then everything would be fine..?
Or is it that the best-selling system "only" managing a 370K March is somehow portentous?
It simply seems a very strange point to belabor.
Weekly sales only increased 10K a week, in a monthly transition where they typically decrease and based on precedent "should" have decreased by 14K.
Is that somehow cause for concern?
And had it instead increased by 12K a week and hit 400K then everything would be fine..?
Or is it that the best-selling system "only" managing a 370K March is somehow portentous?
It simply seems a very strange point to belabor.
Taking that literally...I don't think she's actually that far from the truth. The only studio that seems to be supporting Vita now is Japan Studios.
Well if stock wasn't fully available until the 10th of March doesn't that show his point that the Chinese holiday stock wouldn't cover the US till the first week of March. That is 10 days of less supply. Also it was mostly online retailers that were getting stock and it wasn't until the latter half of the month that physical retailers started seeing more supply.
As far as TF vs. Infamous I believe he is saying that you have to add in the fact that in February Amazon charts TF greatly outsold ISS. So in the NPD all those sales would count so Amazon Feb + Amazon Mar = Mar NPD for Titanfall sales. Which would better line up in the difference shown in NpD.
1)I've said "especially" because PS4 was available again on Amazon.com on March 5th, then it went sold out a few days later and then it came back over there, and it became available everywhere else, online retailers speaking.
Moreover, the tracking period for NPD March was March 2-April 5, 2014. Thus, quite a big amount of days with availability not being in danger, online or at retail.
2)Mmmh...if that's what he's saying, I'm still a bit reclutant, because there's still the fact that inFamous was higher than Titanfall in March Amazon chart. I understand that I should add up, but there's still something strange. Also, looking at February Amazon chart, we have also Final Fantasy X|X-2 for PS3, the special edition, being much higher (17th) than inFamous, and this is preorders v.s. preorders
@shinra: January to March trajectory was fine (PS4 was a little on the plus side, since there have been cases of platforms decreasing their aws from Jan to Mar, but, from what I've seen, it's much more being slightly higher), but January to February one was subnormal, since it had lower aws than January, while it's been the complete opposite (this year, we even had a peak for the increase), and that's due to sever shortages as already said. So, considering how March was a better month for availability than January, where did those lost sales go? Could it be that they are included partially in March sales? Could it be that they weren't as big as we thought? It's also possible they'll strongly appear in April again, maybe even more than in March, not denying that, but I'm still wondering where are they...
Boombloxer
Member
Still waiting on a point to all this.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The sales were terrible when OLED versions were plentiful.
A barely advertised new model will do nothing to entice buyers.
Are people really counting on a late port of Borderlands 2 to do anything?
And is that the biggest game Vita has on the horizon?
DryvBy
Member
If they didn't poorly port 3DS versions of good games to the Vita too... The LEGO games are horrible on the Vita, hardly any fun. I picked up LEGO LOTR on Vita and it's incredibly empty and boring. My brother has it on 360 so I checked it out and it looked something I'd have fun playing.
sturgboski
Member
Biggest game to appeal to Western audiences? Yes, unless something huge gets announced at E3 for this fall.
Outside of that I would say Freedom Wars is supposed to be the other big game this year, but it will probably do way better in Japan than the west.
So basically, yes, Borderlands 2 port is the biggest release in NA for western audiences as of this post.
CMojicaAce
Member
Ugh it's sad how SCEA gives hardly a damn about the vita because it has so much potential. I used to love playing GTA and WWE games on the psp. Where are those types of games on the vita, Sony? 
Borderlands 2 won't do anything.
A price drop shortly afterwards, unbundled, might do something (nothing announced AFAIK; just thinking that because V2k+BL2 MSRP == V1k solus MSRP, there's some flexibility there already).
Either way, the US market really doesn't seem to want or need the Vita.
sturgboski
Member
I say price drop with Minecraft bundled in (and maybe memory card price drop too) might help move the needle. That game sells crazy amounts on everything and if Sony positions it as the only full fledged way to play the game on a handheld with maybe some cross play with the PS3 and PS4 version, things might get better. Not 2nd coming better, but at least it will probably sell more than 10k a month...
I'm interested...but not at the asking price. I've always jumped on Nintendo consoles late for the Nintendo franchises and I will do the same here. I just don't think it's worth the price yet.
The PS3 suffered garbage terrible ports early on, so despite being a comparable console to the 360 it seemed weaker until ports got better. The difference this time around is that there is a permanent power gap in terms of the hardware.
Why do things have to be called "dead"? Does it still sell? Is Sony still making money? Does letting a product line die help their brand power in gaming in any way, shape, or form? Does abandoning a platform help their Playstation brand? Do stores need the space in their gaming section for something else like Wii-U games or Ouya?
Depending on how deep PSNow goes, Vita could become a very attractive product. But we won't know until PSNow comes out.
I believe that if sales don't improve by Christmas this year in North America, Sony is going all digital on the software. They'll still sell the actual hardware in brick and mortar, but it's probably not financially viable to keep buying shelf space for Vita games.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
This. Minecraft Bundle with memory card or bust at this point. I think it could provide a big shot in the arm. People love Mindcraft and if they can play a feature complete version with cross save on the go it would be enticing to many. Dropping the Price to $169 with all that wouldn't hurt either.
COD didn't help vita sales that much so why would mine craft do that?
CambriaRising
Member
Call of duty was a really really bad game.
Collar Doodie's house is built on online multiplayer. Which the Vita can technically do, but if you're in a fixed location with Wifi, you're probably at home. Declassed's online implementation is also pretty garbage by all accounts.
Minecraft's success is built on expressing your creativity while wrestling with the world. It's not even that dependent on active community. It's perfectly functional offline.
PrivateWHudson
Member
Whoever mentioned skylanders selling better on the one, than ps4... I couldn't help but notice when buying it for my kids at Christmas that toys r us was hiding the ps4 version in the back. I don't know if it was ms marketing, or tru wanted to push the version that they had consoles for (ps4) was out of stock, but for sucha large retailer for kids stuff, they don't seem to like the ps4.
I really wonder how much one chain's attitude toward a console can skew the market. I think Sony really needs to push tru if they want the family market.
I really wonder how much one chain's attitude toward a console can skew the market. I think Sony really needs to push tru if they want the family market.
Fallout-with-swords
Banned
Well the current Vita model is being phased out for the 2000. If you are someone wanting to buy a Vita I can see why you would want to wait for the new model.
Why do you guys act like sony wont price cut? If ms price cut and it changes the tides, sony would price cut and it would be back to square one.
Graphics Horse
Member
Handheld Minecraft is a proven success already. COD.. well it had a few DS games, I think.
Vita is never becoming an attractive product to the mass market.
Omotesando
Member
I think the months to E3 could tell us Xbox is fine or not, starting with April. January was a bummer for Xbox and a few levels short of being 'fine'. February and march, even though they couldn't beat PS4, could be classified as fine.
NPD numbers not related to any big games, price cuts, holiday deals etc. are the numbers that are the most telling.
I think that at this point so early on it would be stupid for Sony to do that. They can't afford to play price tag with MS. MS isn't going to undercut the ps4, if anything bring parity with it.
Maybe later Sony could cut the price but as a company that isn't doing so well why out yourself further in the red when you don't really have to
Ok so what should Sony do? Abandoning the system sends a bad signal and weakens their brand. Stopping support on the system would do the same. Is 120,000 new customers per year in just this territory buying games on possibly the highest attach-rate game system out there something that helps or hurts their bottom line?
Should they just give up right before PSNow makes its debut on the redesigned platform?
Sony is getting more and more people into their ecosystem that weren't on PS+ last gen. Even if a tiny fraction sees the benefit in a portable device that can do remote play, can carry on their save-games on indie titles across both systems, has its own set of free games per month on PS+, essentially is a PSP/PS1 for many digital titles, and can do PSNow gaming with an actual good controller compared to how PSNow will be on an ipad, it's something to continue to support.
Yeah maybe brick-and-mortar stores will stop carrying retail games and the system will never reach mainstream success. But it will still be a valued money maker for Sony. Otherwise they wouldn't have even bothered with this flood of announcements of other Japanese games being localized for the system.
10k sales a month of hardware in a single territory puts a lot of frowns on people's faces, but it doesn't mean the product isn't a money maker overall for Sony. Or that it doesn't still hold value as an attractive-yet-mostly-overlooked stepchild of the rest of the Playstation family.
I love mine and as much as I'd like to see it be a bigger success, and as sad as it is that it's not, I am not writing an epitaph for its tombstone just yet. And Sony doesn't seem to be either.
Well here's what I got from the thread unless I miss-understood some of the good analysis from Aquamarine and other posters (between the noise/mayhem):
- XB1 March sales while on the surface fine strongly indicate underlying troubles - mainly as the console only maintained similar average weekly sales to February despite TitanFall launching and a huge number of deals/bundles. The short summary seems to be that rather than providing much in the way of a boost to weekly sales TitanFall and the deals merely prevented the average weekly sales dipping alarmingly from February (or they had no effect at all which I struggle to believe)
- While XB1 sales look strong in total units next to 360 the 360 was supply constrained over same period therefore while its good marketing & PR message the "doing better than 360" line isn't telling the whole story at this point
- PS4 demand remained strong due to better availability in US than previously combined with a decent new game - inFamous
- PS4 seems poised to have a run of strong NPD performance relative to XB1 based on current price points/game release schedules which is a huge turnaround from 360's strong NPD run of outperforming PS3
- Vita is essentially dead in US as things currently stand.
- Overall sales indicate a strong transition from PS3/360 to PS4/XB1 for new game sales
- Wii U is is dire straits in US
{*}TitanFall had a good launch given the online only nature of the new IP and the apparently troubled path to release the game went through
Bottom line I took away is that at least in this early running Sony has managed to turn the tables in US and has even managed to outperform Microsoft in a month when I would have literally bet money that XB1 would outsell it; baseline demand in the US for PS4 seems to be higher than XB1 (which flat out amazes me) and both the Vita and Wii U are really, really looking unhealthy in the region.
Clearly Sony need to work out how to remain on course and hold off Microsoft while Microsoft need to work out how to ensure better momentum and boosts from big titles and try and halt Sony's momentum.
As for TitanFall I'm glad it launched well but I do feel the IP wasn't best served with some of the choices made over its development. I'm convinced that if Respawn had purely targeted new consoles/PC only and launched on PC/PS4/XB1 having been developed on an engine designed to leverage those specs it would have performed better. I also believe if it had a decent SP campaign it would also have performed better (I know about the issues but really if Respawn hadn't been distracted by the lawsuit and had worked the budget better with EA then clearly it could have had one).
Finally it seems inFamous performed strongly for an SP only IP versus its predecessors (at least in terms of launch impact).
PeakPointMatrix
Member
Why dont we have an exact PS4 number yet?
Apophis2036
Banned
350K is maybe a bit much but like I said, WiiU sold 70 000 units with zero major releases. If there is a MK8 bundle for $299 and they heavily advertise it I see no reason why hardware sales won't massively spike.
Ow I didn't know that, I think 120K for May NPD and 180K for June NPD then.
shinra-bansho
Member
The validity of the PSV's "attach rate" with regard to comparisons in NPD sales threads is questionable.
If one included PSN/XBL downloadable titles and minis and classics and whatnot, the PS3 and Xbox 360 would presumably be much higher than their 8-9 retail titles a piece.
If one included PSN/XBL downloadable titles and minis and classics and whatnot, the PS3 and Xbox 360 would presumably be much higher than their 8-9 retail titles a piece.
Unknown One
Member
It'll spike by a bit then drop down again. Seriously doubt it'll spike over 300k anyways.
MisterXDTV
Member
I agree, but in that situation the price was very very high (600$/) and that was the main problem. Once the price was cut and it sold better, the ports became better. This time, as you said, the power gap is permanent and the price is not the main issue.
You saw bundles with Titanfall thrown in for free with a year of Live Gold for 450$ and it didn't make a difference in March.
Anyway in my case even at 600 PS3 was worth it because of the Blu-ray drive alone, not counting all the other things it could do. As I said worse standalone Blu-ray players were 1000 in 2006/2007....