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Official 2009 MLB Season Thread of the Inaugural CitiField September Collapse

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Thaedolus

Thaedolus

Gold Member
Goddamn...pour one out for Adenhart. My dad just texted me to let me know. I feel terrible for the Angels, arch-rivals or not.
 
Meohsix

Meohsix

Member
2ur8foo.png


i hate living in florida -_-
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Y2Kev said:
I don't really get the pitches gag. Can you explain?
Click to expand...

It's not really a gag but a theory that I champion. Basically, in an era of pitch counts, pitch counts are everything. The theory:

"The more pitches that each batter sees, the more likely your team will win."

Assumptions
1. All (or most) starters are on a 100-120 pitch count.
2. All (or most) middle relievers are not quite as good as starters and are more vulnerable to allowing runs.

Assertions
1. If the average starter can be expected/capped to go 100 pitches, they need to have less than 11 pitches per inning (PPI) to pitch a complete game, 13 PPI to go 8 innings, and 14.5 PPI to go 7 innings.

2. 15 PPI is the true goal, assuming that most teams have a couple middle relievers and a closer. That will allow the starter to get to the 7th inning and then the manager can play lefty/righty matchups to bridge to the closer.

3. Because 15 PPI (or less) is the defense's goal, the offense's goal should be more than that. I assert that when your offense goes above that threshold, your team is more likely to win because they will see less effective middle relievers. I also acknowledge that having a greater than 15 PPI means the offense in question is likely getting hits or walks, which also points to a greater liklihood of winning.

Resulting Theories
1. For the offense, a 3-pitch strikeout is better than a 1-pitch groundout. (duh)

2. For the offense, the earlier you can get a starter pulled, the greater downstream effect it will have. Read: Get starter #1 pulled in the 5th on monday, use their bullpen more than usual. Get starter #2 pulled in the 5th on tuesday, bullpen is more vulnerable and already "used up" and your team is more likely to win. Get starter #3 into high pitch counts on wednesday, and their team is screwed. I believe that if you can get the ace into high pitch counts on game one of a series, the downstream effect leads to a greater chance of winning multiple games.

3. For the defense, nothing is better than a slappy, small-ball team that swings at the first pitch. The longer your starter can go, especially in sub-10 PPI innings, the better. The downstream effect is better support for your 3-4-5 starters with better rested middle relief.

4. The theory values walks over less-than-4-pitch singles for the offense, and less-than-3-pitch groundouts over strikeouts for defense.

5. The theory incorporates sabremetric philosophy that "nothing is worse than an out," and thus, stolen bases are not worth the potential cost, that bunting is for chumps, and that intentional sacrifices are only good in late inning situations.

Remaining Questions/Flaws
1. How much is one pitch really worth? This theory might suggest that a 10-pitch single is better than a 1-pitch double. But does that make sense?

2. Data has shown that teams with higher PPI for their batters are not necessarily more successful. How does that gel with the theory?

3. Is the assumption that middle relievers are not as effective as starters a safe assumption? Where do 'lefty specialists' and overly-active manager pitching switches elinimate this theory's effect?


Let me know what you think. It's not perfect, but it's based in good, solid baseball theory.
 
C

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
PantherLotus said:
It's not really a gag but a theory that I champion. Basically, in an era of pitch counts, pitch counts are everything. The theory:

"The more pitches that each batter sees, the more likely your team will win."

Assumptions
1. All (or most) starters are on a 100-120 pitch count.
2. All (or most) middle relievers are not quite as good as starters and are more vulnerable to allowing runs.

Assertions
1. If the average starter can be expected/capped to go 100 pitches, they need to have less than 11 pitches per inning (PPI) to pitch a complete game, 13 PPI to go 8 innings, and 14.5 PPI to go 7 innings.

2. 15 PPI is the true goal, assuming that most teams have a couple middle relievers and a closer. That will allow the starter to get to the 7th inning and then the manager can play lefty/righty matchups to bridge to the closer.

3. Because 15 PPI (or less) is the defense's goal, the offense's goal should be more than that. I assert that when your offense goes above that threshold, your team is more likely to win because they will see less effective middle relievers. I also acknowledge that having a greater than 15 PPI means the offense in question is likely getting hits or walks, which also points to a greater liklihood of winning.

Resulting Theories
1. For the offense, a 3-pitch strikeout is better than a 1-pitch groundout. (duh)

2. For the offense, the earlier you can get a starter pulled, the greater downstream effect it will have. Read: Get starter #1 pulled in the 5th on monday, use their bullpen more than usual. Get starter #2 pulled in the 5th on tuesday, bullpen is more vulnerable and already "used up" and your team is more likely to win. Get starter #3 into high pitch counts on wednesday, and their team is screwed. I believe that if you can get the ace into high pitch counts on game one of a series, the downstream effect leads to a greater chance of winning multiple games.

3. For the defense, nothing is better than a slappy, small-ball team that swings at the first pitch. The longer your starter can go, especially in sub-10 PPI innings, the better. The downstream effect is better support for your 3-4-5 starters with better rested middle relief.

4. The theory values walks over less-than-4-pitch singles for the offense, and less-than-3-pitch groundouts over strikeouts for defense.

5. The theory incorporates sabremetric philosophy that "nothing is worse than an out," and thus, stolen bases are not worth the potential cost, that bunting is for chumps, and that intentional sacrifices are only good in late inning situations.

Remaining Questions/Flaws
1. How much is one pitch really worth? This theory might suggest that a 10-pitch single is better than a 1-pitch double. But does that make sense?

2. Data has shown that teams with higher PPI for their batters are not necessarily more successful. How does that gel with the theory?

3. Is the assumption that middle relievers are not as effective as starters a safe assumption? Where do 'lefty specialists' and overly-active manager pitching switches elinimate this theory's effect?


Let me know what you think. It's not perfect, but it's based in good, solid baseball theory.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. I'm always watching the pitch counts. I've always believed you have a better chance of winning if you can get the starter out of the game early.

This is part of the reason I cant get excited about the Astros. Its obvious they built the team around offense(which I dont like in the first place). My problem with that is outside of Lee, Berkman and Matsui, almost no one else works the count and most tend to be free swingers at the plate. So the team as a whole tends to make quicker outs and have lower on base percentages.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
Aren't the Rangers doing something to try and make their Minor League Pitchers go longer? Think they are giving up on pitch counts and just going by how the pitcher is doing or something.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Windu said:
Aren't the Rangers doing something to try and make their Minor League Pitchers go longer? Think they are giving up on pitch counts and just going by how the pitcher is doing or something.
Click to expand...

Texas' problem is that they sold their soul for a colorado-like effect for every batter on their team from here to eternity. The cost, of course, is to be cursed with horrendous pitching. Thems the breaks.
 
B

Big-E

Member
Mets broadcast has died. Fuck. Anyone else having trouble with it? Haven't been able to get it back up since Votto destroyed.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Big-E said:
Mets broadcast has died. Fuck. Anyone else having trouble with it? Haven't been able to get it back up since Votto destroyed.
Click to expand...

Cincinnati Inning Summary

- J. Bruce fouled out to first
- E. Encarnacion walked

Hannigan up.
 
W

Windu

never heard about the cat, apparently
There is a link on the front page of MLB.com for a live stream of the MLB Network where they are talking about Nick Adenhart.
 
E

evil solrac v3.0

Member
oh good, we're playing today. I think i'm pretty fed-up with the new york papers, not enought to just cover the story.... Burnett is gonna shine today, just watch...
 
D

Doytch

Member
evil solrac v3.0 said:
oh good, we're playing today. I think i'm pretty fed-up with the new york papers, not enought to just cover the story.... Burnett is gonna shine today, just watch...
Click to expand...

Get ready for his follow-up start then, in which he'll throw 2 and a third and give up 5.
 
C

captmcblack

Member
Yankees just have to get it started on this Simon guy, and they'll finish him off quickly.

BE FUCKING PATIENT

[EDIT: @PantherLotus, that's John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman, famous for her on-air Clemensgasm (Frankman, please demonstrate). I apologize in advance. :lol]
 
C

captmcblack

Member
pollo said:
how long before "it's a met town" headlines come out
Click to expand...

I'll say it'll be May.
It's always a Mets town in the Daily News/Post, until the Mets lose in regular hilarious fashion.
That yearly ritual is so satisfying.
 
P

pollo

Banned
i love how he went inside fastball on 0-1 and 1-1 on MarCockAss and then had the cojones to throw an absolutely filthy breaking ball.
 
F

Fatalah

Member
Someone at Camden Yards has a steel drum and it sounds WAY too much like the Radiohead song "Packt Like Sardines In A Crushed Tin Box".

I keep waiting for the synths to kick in!
 
C

captmcblack

Member
pollo said:
i love how he went inside fastball on 0-1 and 1-1 on MarCockAss and then had the cojones to throw an absolutely filthy breaking ball.
Click to expand...

Fuck yes.

Hopefully the kids are watching and learning...particularly one Mr. Firewater.
 
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