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[birdman]

I'll be throwing my vote to Obama this Tuesday in Virginia. I have a fever, and the only perscription is more Obama!

 

[Rur0ni]

I'll be throwing my vote to Obama this Tuesday in Virginia. I have a fever, and the only perscription is more Obama!

:lol :lol :lol

 

[Cheebs]

Remember, Maryland and Virigina are primaries. In primaries overly large % gap between candidates is far rarer. Don't expect a gap as large as with caucus's. Anything over 10% in either state would be stellar.

 

[RubxQub]

More wins here would be phenomenally awesome.

 

[avaya]

More wins here would be phenomenally awesome.

Book it. It's done. No way she's winning Tuesday.

 

[Rur0ni]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8428.html

Clinton badly needs Virginia victory

By: Kenneth P. Vogel and Jonathan Martin and Lisa Lerer
Feb 11, 2008 06:19 AM EST

Clinton – whose campaign is reeling after a high-level staff shakeup and weekend loses to Obama in Maine, Washington State, Nebraska and Louisiana – has all-but-conceded defeat in Maryland and the District.

She has campaigned hard in Virginia, where her campaign has a strategy to keep things competitive, but it’s already looking ahead to March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas as a firewall of sorts.

Expect DC, and MD blowouts. She's focused in Virgina because it has the most delegates of the three, and wants to stop him from gaining too much ground. If she gets within a single digit loss, it'll be considered a success I imagine. I still think he can get a double digit possibly 20+ bomb there.

 

[RubxQub]

Book it. It's done. No way she's winning Tuesday.

Most likely so... I just don't want to get too confident. It's very possible that Obama could take a delegate lead after Tuesday (with supes included), and I'm afraid of what that may due to voters.

Will they now magically see Hillary as suffering and start supporting her more?

Just presents a unique scenario that the Obama group hasn't seen just yet. We need Obama peoples to not diminish their support in order to be successful in Texas/Ohio.

Just don't want to see this all get flushed because people get too comfortable.

 

[PhoenixDark]

MA and DC have nice sized African American populations which always favors Obama; often he essentially splits the white vote with Hillary, takes 80% of the black vote, and=Obama blowout. I don't expect any surprises there

Virginia seems like Obama Land, and after watching Bill's 4 days in Maine result in a 19 point blowout I'm not confident Hillary's constant campaigning there will matter much. Might be a 10 point loss at best for her. But if she wins it'll be a HUGE upset

Either way March 4 has enough delegates to erase Obama's leads, but as I said earlier I've lost confidence in her ability to win Ohio. Texas seems like it's in the bag, although we haven't seen any poll numbers recently..

 

[Rur0ni]

MA and DC have nice sized African American populations which always favors Obama; often he essentially splits the white vote with Hillary, takes 80% of the black vote, and=Obama blowout. I don't expect any surprises there

Virginia seems like Obama Land, and after watching Bill's 4 days in Maine result in a 19 point blowout I'm not confident Hillary's constant campaigning there will matter much. Might be a 10 point loss at best for her. But if she wins it'll be a HUGE upset

Either way March 4 has enough delegates to erase Obama's leads, but as I said earlier I've lost confidence in her ability to win Ohio. Texas seems like it's in the bag, although we haven't seen any poll numbers recently..

Well, Texas may have more delegates, and if she wins it, as long as Obama can close the gap, say less than 10% loss, he'll still get a ton of delegates there.

 

[Loudninja]

Any polls ?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Well, Texas may have more delegates, and if she wins it, as long as Obama can close the gap, say less than 10% loss, he'll still get a ton of delegates there.

True. If Hillary can net a 60+ delegate advantage there she'll be right where she wants to be. She's gotta proove her campaign is actually ALIVE. Right now there are so many domino pieces waiting to fall Obama's way, ie the Gore/Pelosi endorsements (ie kingmaker) move

 

[Cheebs]

He needs to win either Ohio or Texas, not cause of the delegates but to keep his perception that he is the front runner. A psychological victory.

 

[Rur0ni]

Any polls ?

Only polls available are in the OP. Polling for Texas/Ohio isn't here yet. Though I strongly imagine that after next Tuesday, the Wisconsin/Hawaii contests, SurveyUSA and the rest will be polling Texas/Ohio.

He needs to win either Ohio or Texas, not cause of the delegates but to keep his perception that he is the front runner. A psychological victory.

I have to agree here. He just needs to win one of them. If he doesn't, she'll be running around confidently still. I don't care if it's a 51/49 split, if she wins it, she's gonna have a confident stroll about herself.

 

[Particle Physicist]

One thing that was mentioned in the earlier thread...

This is Clinton's first and last chance as president. She's been plotting this for a while now. A youngster comes in and is sweeping her feet from under her. The question, will she take it all the way to the end? Do some sort of voodoo at the convention that we don't understand?

why is it her last chance?

 

[Cheebs]

I made this if anyone wants it.

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

I'm hardcore trying to do my part for the Ohio primaries. I've gathered a bit of people from school to march to the election center to vote for Obama. Trying to spread the good word.

 

[avaya]

Most likely so... I just don't want to get too confident. It's very possible that Obama could take a delegate lead after Tuesday (with supes included), and I'm afraid of what that may due to voters.

Will they now magically see Hillary as suffering and start supporting her more?

Just presents a unique scenario that the Obama group hasn't seen just yet. We need Obama peoples to not diminish their support in order to be successful in Texas/Ohio.

Just don't want to see this all get flushed because people get too comfortable.

You needn't worry. There'll be bipartisan support for Obama in the Texas Primary from Republicans voting for him to block Hillary or protest McCain. This will cancel out her Hispanic firewall there.

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

I'm hardcore trying to do my part for the Ohio primaries. I've gathered a bit of people from school to march to the election center to vote for Obama. Trying to spread the good word.

Grass roots!

 

[Instigator]

why is it her last chance?

I asked the same question before, and got a bunch of guesses wrapped in wishful thinking and portrayed as absolute certainties.

The Clinton legacy!

Obama will win in November and her next shot is 2016!

She'll be too old next time!

McCain doesn't count, he's the exception!

The Clintons will stoop to any level, except running again!

Saying never in politics makes sense!

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

You needn't worry. There'll be bipartisan support for Obama in the Texas Primary from Republicans voting for him to block Hillary or protest McCain. This will cancel out her Hispanic firewall there.

El Paso Times endorses Obama.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/opinion/ci_8219179

Texas State Rep. Pete Gallego, chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, has announced he is endorsing Barack Obama for president

http://www.riograndeguardian.com/rggnews_s...asp?story_no=26

 

[Rur0ni]

why is it her last chance?

Well, assuming the Obama presidency goes well, we're looking at 8 years till she can run again. Will the people forget everything that's happened and say, "now its your turn"? Or will someone else come up in 8 years, stealing the glory?

 

[RiskyChris]

Guys I really need Obama to win this election. He really would change America for the better.

Fuck the policies, he's going to make people feel good about being American again. He's going to make people feel trusting in their President again. He'll single-handedly, no, with the help of the American people, change the way the world looks at America.

Yes, we can.

 

[PhoenixDark]

It's her last chance for many reasons imo. Obviously age is a factor. She's 60, and assuming Obama wins re-election she'll be almost 70 the next time she can run. And lets say McCain beats Obama in 08. Will anyone care to support her again at that time? The Clintons dominance has run its course. I'd imagine Mark Warner could be running a campaign very similar to Obama's in 2012 assuming McCain wins this election of course.

Much of her power in the senate came from the perception that she would be president one day. Without that the Clintons will hold no sway over anyone; Dean and Obama will usher in a new age of Democrat politics, with someone like Warner in the wings. There are many people in the party who still hate the Clintons, and will back Obama once it's clear he's on the way to the nomination

 

[thekad]

Eh PD, I really don't think either Gore or Pelosi are going to endorse anyone. Especially Pelosi.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Eh PD, I really don't think either Gore or Pelosi are going to endorse anyone. Especially Pelosi.

There are rumblings that the Gore endorsement is coming before March 4th, and while Pelosi hasn't publically said anything her staff is already on the Obama train.

also interestingly

In the N.Y. Times, William Kristol speculates naughtily on the possibility of Vice President Gore and Speaker Pelosi anointing Obama: "[T]here are, as a final resort, two super-superdelegates (so to speak) who would have the clout to help Democrats achieve closure: Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. If they stepped forward at the right time, they would earn the gratitude of their party. And they might also enjoy contemplating a derivative effect of their good deed — the fall of the house of Clinton."

http://dyn.politico.com/playbook/

 

[Loudninja]

Only polls available are in the OP. Polling for Texas/Ohio isn't here yet. Though I strongly imagine that after next Tuesday, the Wisconsin/Hawaii contests, SurveyUSA and the rest will be polling Texas/Ohio.

I have to agree here. He just needs to win one of them. If he doesn't, she'll be running around confidently still. I don't care if it's a 51/49 split, if she wins it, she's gonna have a confident stroll about herself.

Thanks Rur0ni

 

[StoOgE]

Eh PD, I really don't think either Gore or Pelosi are going to endorse anyone. Especially Pelosi.

Gore seems more like a done deal at this point. Pelosi is more iffy, but rumblings are there as well.

I think with Gore they are waiting for the right time. I.E. right before March 4th after a month of Obamaination. Gore wants to be the kingmaker, Pelosi could play a similar role.

Edwards is the guy most likely to endorse sooner rather than later (whichever direction he goes). The others would be more likely to wait to help build momentum.

Edit: I think the draw with Pelossi is she is the face of the female democratic party. Hillary would steal that from her. Also, they are supposed to not like each other.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama leads Hillary 956 to 904 in pledge delegates.

 

[Cheebs]

Pelosi would be a more behind the scenes party insider endorsement. The whole forcing party insiders to endorse Obama type. She isn't as a public figure that well loved.

Also after Obama party insiders have been grooming Mark Warner from the looks of it. Clinton is kicked out of the line if she doesnt win this time.

 

[maynerd]

I made this if anyone wants it.

I'll take it! Thanks!

 

[The Lamonster]

Can't wait for tomorrow's results!

 

[Patrickula]

I'm looking forward to voting in VA tomorrow, can't wait! Too bad Mark Warner won't endorse, he's hugely popular. I assume he wants to play it safe in case he needs the support of either side in the future.

 

[birdman]

I'm looking forward to voting in VA tomorrow, can't wait! Too bad Mark Warner won't endorse, he's hugely popular. I assume he wants to play it safe in case he needs the support of either side in the future.

Warner is trying to keep to hs moderate stance. If he endorses Obama then when he runs for the state Senate seat this year the Republicans will have less of a reason to cross party lines.

 

[Cheebs]

Warner has his eye on the white house still, he is playing it safe.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama leads Hillary 53% to 35% in the Virginia polls

 

[grandjedi6]

-Pelosi will not endorse
-Dean will not endorse
-Gore is unlikely to endorse until he can get away with it. He doesn't want to tarnish his neutral image unless the nominee is guarenteed
-Edwards and Richardson are going to endorse soon or hide in an underground bunker

 

[Patrickula]

Warner is trying to keep to hs moderate stance. If he endorses Obama then when he runs for the state Senate seat this year the Republicans will have less of a reason to cross party lines.

Good point. His image and politics are quite a bit further to the right than either candidate and it serves him very well in VA.

 

[Rur0ni]

-Pelosi will not endorse
-Dean will not endorse
-Gore is unlikely to endorse until he can get away with it. He doesn't want to tarnish his neutral image unless the nominee is guarenteed
-Edwards and Richardson are going to endorse soon or hide in an underground bunker

Edwards/Richardson endorsement is beginning to lose it's weight imo. Edwards more so. After Texas, Richardson doesn't even matter.

 

[Rur0ni]

Momentarily, SurveyUSA clients WTVR-TV Richmond, WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke will post results of SurveyUSA’s final tracking poll in the Virginia Republican Primary. In interviews conducted over the weekend, there was movement in Virginia to Mike Huckabee.

1. Among Conservative voters, John McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5.
2. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6.
3. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12.
4. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17.
5. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.

Snap. Seems voters are rejecting McCain :lol

 

[Eric WK]

(And in the precious visual department: Monday brings the unveiling of "a new figure of Sen. Barack Obama seated in a replica of the Oval Office with Bill and Hillary Clinton standing by" at Madame Tussauds wax museum in Washington, per the AP's daybook.)

Via Drudge.

 

[NME]

Warner has his eye on the white house still, he is playing it safe.

I could have sworn that Warner previously endorsed Clinton. So I'm totally wrong on that? How did I even get that idea?

 

[JaY P.]

MSNBC just said that VA is winner take all. If that's the case, Obama needs to win this to have a clear, but still small, lead. Can anyone verify this?

 

[Eric WK]

MSNBC just said that VA is winner take all. If that's the case, Obama needs to win this to have a clear, but still small, lead. Can anyone verify this?

None of the Democratic primaries are winner take all. They must have been referring to the Republican race.

 

[gcubed]

Snap. Seems voters are rejecting McCain :lol

which is actually huge for Texas. Texas is an open primary correct? Meaning anyone can vote for anyone. There has been a lot of talk about republicans being disenfranchised by McCain and some political pundits are expecting a lot of republicans to vote for Obama.

 

[Tamanon]

-Pelosi will not endorse
-Dean will not endorse
-Gore is unlikely to endorse until he can get away with it. He doesn't want to tarnish his neutral image unless the nominee is guarenteed
-Edwards and Richardson are going to endorse soon or hide in an underground bunker

Dean of course would not endorse, he's the leader of the DNC, he really can't endorse and keep his job.

 

[Seth C]

I'm following this thread instead of getting anything done at work...and it isn't even Tuesday yet.

 

[Cheebs]

which is actually huge for Texas. Texas is an open primary correct? Meaning anyone can vote for anyone. There has been a lot of talk about republicans being disenfranchised by McCain and some political pundits are expecting a lot of republicans to vote for Obama.

based on that VA poll, they more likely would vote Huckabee than switch parties.

 

[Kildace]

based on that VA poll, they more likely would vote Huckabee than switch parties.

VA is not open though, and voting for Obama has more effect than voting for Huckabee when you're a republican.

 

[Eric WK]

which is actually huge for Texas. Texas is an open primary correct? Meaning anyone can vote for anyone. There has been a lot of talk about republicans being disenfranchised by McCain and some political pundits are expecting a lot of republicans to vote for Obama.

Huh?

I know what you're trying to say, but that's not the right term.

 

[gcubed]

Huh?

I know what you're trying to say, but that's not the right term.

well you got the meaning, you can correct me with the right term. There are other things going in Obama's favor with Texas, starting with the fact that the Republican race may be over (officially) by then.