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|OT| French Presidential election - 2012 edition

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First round results:


What's up:
Sarkozy and Hollande tune up for presidential run-off

By Joseph BAMAT the 22/04/2012 - 23:08

Incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate François Hollande have made it to the second round of France’s presidential election. But the far right once again caused a stir by pooling almost a fifth of the vote.

The highly anticipated showdown between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate François Hollande will indeed take place on May 6, after the left-wing challenger finished ahead of the incumbent in Sunday’s first round of voting. But it was the leader of the far-right National Front, Marine Le Pen, who stole the show on election day with a record score for her party.

According to partial results released by France’s Interior Ministry, Hollande secured around 28.5% of the vote, ahead of Sarkozy with 27% and Le Pen with 19%.

“I am the candidate of unity, and that unity needs to be strong,” Hollande pleaded during a post-election speech at his campaign headquarters in the central city of Tulles. France’s Socialists are hoping to return to the Elysée Palace for the first time in almost two decades.

Sarkozy, who has been criticized for waging a feeble campaign so far, was in a race against time to inject fresh momentum into his re-election drive, with opinion polls suggesting he will also finish second in the May 6 run-off.

An election day survey by the Ipsos polling firm predicted Hollande would beat Sarkozy by 54% to 46%.

Another Le Pen shocker

While Hollande's supporters were contemplating overall victory, and the president's camp were breathing a sigh of relief, the National Front was throwing the biggest party of the night.

“The battle for France has only just begun… nothing will be as before,” Marine Le Pen told ecstatic supporters in her usually combative style. Her near-20% support was a historic high for her anti-immigration National Front party, even if it did not buy her a ticket into the second round.

In the 2002 presidential election, her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder and long-time leader of the National Front, shocked France by securing 16.8% support in the first round. His score that year was enough to get him into the second round, where he was trounced by former president Jacques Chirac.

While her name would not be on the run-off ballot, Marine Le Pen’s third-place finish on Sunday confirmed her position as the National Front’s new leader and as a major player on France’s political stage.

The Ipsos poll revealed that 48% of people who voted for the Marine Le Pen were between 25 and 44 years of age, challenging established ideas about the far-right’s electorate and perhaps signalling an important shift in the party’s makeup under Marine Le Pen.

The same study showed that Le Pen supporters said immigration and insecurity were their top concerns, whereas Sarkozy backers said the financial crisis was France’s most pressing problem.

It remained uncertain whether Le Pen’s strong showing would translate into second-round votes for the incumbent. Marine Le Pen said she would wait until May 1 to make an announcement to supporters about the second round. However, speaking to French television, Jean-Marie Le Pen said it was clear that the first-round results spelt disaster for Sarkozy.

Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who some opinion surveys showed to be running neck and neck with Le Pen, disappointed supporters with 11.5% of votes. Centrist François Bayrou, who conquered third place in the 2007 presidential vote, finished in fifth with 8.5%, exit polls showed.

Green candidate Eva Joly ended election day with 2.3%, while the right-wing eurosceptic Nicolas Dupont-Aignan got 1.8%. Far-left candidates Phillippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud got 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, and off-beat candidate Jacques Cheminade won just 0.2%.

Left rallies behind Hollande

Candidates on the left quickly expressed their support for François Hollande in the second round. Green candidate Eva Joly went on the record as saying she backed Hollande’s presidential bid, echoing other prominent Greens.

Melenchon told supporters rallied on Place de Stalingrad in the north-east of Paris that their vote would be key in the final outcome, urging them to “come together on May 6 to beat Sarkozy”. Phillippe Poutou, the candidate of the New Anti-capitalist Party, also called on voters to “kick out” Sarkozy from office.

Marie-George Buffet, a past presidential candidate for France’s Communist Party and an ally of Melenchon, delivered a clearer endorsement for the Socialist candidate. “All men and women on the left need to mobilize and unify around François Hollande because the danger of the right and far-right remains,” she said.

Accordign to an Ipsos survey, 86% of people who voted for Melenchon in the first round said they would probably vote for François Hollande in the second round. That compared with 60% of Le Pen supporters who said they would cast a run-off ballot for Nicolas Sarkozy.

François Bayrou said he would consult both Hollande and Sarkozy before deciding who he would endorse for the May 6 vote. According to the Ipsos poll, 33% of Bayrou’s supporters said they were leaning towards Hollande, while 32% said they favoured Sarkozy.

Allies of the incumbent president said Sunday’s results proved that opinion polls could not be trusted and that the field remained open for Sarkozy. “Nothing is certain,” said French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe after results.
http://www.france24.com/en/20120422-france-hollande-sarkozy-second-round-presidential-runoff-le-pen


What does and can the President do:

The President of the French Republic (French: Président de la République française) colloquially referred to in English as the President of France, is France's elected Head of State.

The French Fifth Republic is a semi-presidential system. Unlike many other European presidents, the office of the French President is quite powerful. Although it is the Prime Minister of France and parliament that oversee much of the nation's actual lawmaking, the French President wields significant influence. The president holds the nation's most senior office, and outranks all other politicians.

The president's greatest power is their ability to choose the Prime Minister. However, since only the French National Assembly has the power to dismiss the Prime Minister's government, the president is forced to name a prime minister who can command the support of a majority in the assembly.

When the majority of the Assembly has opposite political views to that of the president, this leads to political cohabitation. In that case, the president's power is diminished, since much of the de facto power relies on a supportive prime minister and National Assembly, and is not directly attributed to the post of president.
When the majority of the Assembly sides with him, the President can take a more active role and may, in effect, direct government policy. The prime minister is then the personal choice of the President, and can be easily replaced if the administration becomes unpopular. This device has been used in recent years by both François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac.

Since 2002, the mandate of the president and the Assembly are both 5 years and the two elections are close to each other. Therefore, the likelihood of a "cohabitation" is lower.

Among the powers of the government:

The president promulgates laws.
The president has a very limited form of suspensive veto: when presented with a law, he or she can request another reading of it by Parliament, but only once per law.
The president may also refer the law for review to the Constitutional Council prior to promulgation.
The president may dissolve the French National Assembly
The president may refer treaties or certain types of laws to popular referendum, within certain conditions, among them the agreement of the Prime minister or the parliament.
The president is the Commander-in-Chief (CINC) of the armies.
The president may order the use of nuclear weapons.
The president names the Prime minister but he cannot dismiss him. He names and dismisses the other ministers, with the agreement of the Prime minister.
The president names most officials (with the assent of the cabinet).
The president names certain members of the Constitutional Council.
The president receives foreign ambassadors.
The president may grant a pardon (but not an amnesty) to convicted criminals; the president can also lessen or suppress criminal sentences. This was of crucial importance when France still operated the death penalty: criminals sentenced to death would generally request that the president commute their sentence to life imprisonment.

All decisions of the president must be countersigned by the Prime minister, except dissolving the French National Assembly.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_France)

How the French presidential election works

France is gearing up to vote in the ninth presidential election since the fifth republic was introduced in 1959. The first round takes place on 22 April. If there is no clear winner, there will be a second run-off round on 6 May. RFI explains the rules and regulations governing the vote.

Who can be president?

A French president can serve for a maximum of two five-year terms (changed from seven-year terms by former president Jacques Chirac.)

Candidates must be French citizens. In order to stand they must first gather 500 signatures from elected officials (eg.mayors). Those who sign are sometimes called sponsors, though their signatures don't necessarily imply support for a candidate's ideas. The names of the sponsors are published shortly before the election date so mayors are careful about giving their signatures. The rule is designed to limit the number of frivolous candidates.

Who can vote?

The president is directly elected by the French people, no electoral colleges as in US.
Voters must be French citizens aged 18 or over.
Voting is not compulsory.

How and when?

The election nearly always has two rounds. In theory, if any candidate wins an absolute majority (50 per cent of the vote plus at least one extra vote) he or she is immediately elected. In practice, this has never happened. Charles de Gaulle came the closest, winning 44 per cent in the first round in 1965.

Usually the two candidates with the highest scores in round one, face each other in a second round, held 14 days later. The eliminated candidates often advise their voters who to back, among the two remaining hopefuls. A candidate who comes second in the first round could win the presidency if he has broader support in the second round.

Elections are always held on Sundays. Campaigns finish at midnight on the Friday before the vote.

Voting stations open at 8 am and close at 6 pm in small towns, 8 pm in cities.

Publication of results or estimates before 8 pm is illegal, but foreign radio, TV and internet sites now make estimates available before that time. For this reason, voting in French overseas constituencies in the Americas (eg. French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe) as well as embassies and consulates there, now takes place on Saturdays in a special exemption.

http://www.english.rfi.fr/france/20120206-how-election-works

Results of the previous election (2007):
President before election: Jacques Chirac (UMP)

Second round:

Elected President: Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 53.06% of the votes
Runner-up: Ségolène Royal (PS) - 46.94% of the votes

First round:

1) Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 31.18%
2) Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.87%
3) François Bayrou (UDF - Union for French Democracy - Union pour la démocratie française) - 18.57%
4) Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN - National Front - Front National) - 10.44%
5) Olivier Besancenot (LCR - Revolutionary Communist League - Ligue communiste révolutionnaire) - 4.08%

6 to 12) Philippe de Villiers (Movement for France - Mouvement pour la France), Marie-George Buffet (French Communist Party - Parti communiste français), Dominique Voynet (The Greens - Les Verts), Arlette Laguiller (Workers' Struggle - Lutte ouvrière), José Bové (independent), Frédéric Nihous (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Tradition - Chasse, pêche, nature, traditions), Gérard Schivardi (Worker's Party)
 

lupinko

Member
Eh, I'll keep tabs on this, seems interesting enough.

I do remember Segolene being the looker, but that was years ago.
 

Jubern

Member
Subbed. This is gonna be good.

I'm probably not going to dive too deep in the debate, but I'll be watching all this with a lot of interest.
 

Jubern

Member
I don't know if Hollande is that "cool", but he certainly looks to be the less terrible among favourites.

I'm still waiting for the PS to fail incredibly hard somewhere, ruining their chances by themselves, like always. You know it'll happen.
Would be funny if I wasn't actually one to vote for them.
 

DEO3

Member
I don't know anything about anything when it comes to your elections, but as an American, I think it's awesome you guys have so many parties you can choose from to best represent your views.
 

Jb

Member
I don't know anything about anything when it comes to your elections, but as an American, I think it's awesome you guys have so many parties you can choose from to best represent your views.

I guess, but all we really each time do is choose between UMP and PS, it is de facto a two party system. Well, except in 2002 when the far right managed to sneak in. The other parties don't even have fully fledged or coherent political programs, and they struggle to get the 500 signatures from city mayor required to join the race.

Anyway, this is going to be another boring ass election. Fuck, I might even vote Sarkozy.
Still, classieux l'OP Computer :)
 
I don't know anything about anything when it comes to your elections, but as an American, I think it's awesome you guys have so many parties you can choose from to best represent your views.
Your electoral system does seem complicated but it was very fun staying awake all night to watch the results of the 2008 election on French news channels.

Also, I apologize for not mentioning too much of each candidate's economic policy, however important that might be. There all have so many propositions (raise this and that tax, spend this and that on whatever...) and it can get boring to even read, with all those numbers.

Thank you for your interest in the thread!
 
I don't know if Hollande is that "cool", but he certainly looks to be the less terrible among favourites.

I'm still waiting for the PS to fail incredibly hard somewhere, ruining their chances by themselves, like always. You know it'll happen.
Would be funny if I wasn't actually one to vote for them.

fail like always


WELL HELLO THERE

mitterrand-1981.jpg
 

Kurtofan

Member

He doesn't give a shit, some cold nerves!

If people vote Sarko again, then they deserve every shit they get, the fucker lied about everything he said and he lived the high life during the crisis.

When was the last time a French leader received support from a German leader?(joke)


Edit: Poutou's name means "kiss" by the way, this is a most important information.
 
Useful videos:

Debate: Who is François Hollande?

Guests: Thomas CHEVANDIER. National Secretary, Socialist Party Youth Movement;
Craig COPETAS. Journalist;
Mathieu DOIRET. Political analyst, IPSOS polling institute;
John GAFFNEY. Professor of Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University. Author of "Political leadership in France: from Charles de Gaulle to Nicolas Sarkozy" (from Rennes, France).

Part 1: http://www.france24.com/en/20120126-debate-Who-is-Francois-Hollande?page=1

Part 2: http://www.france24.com/en/20120126-debate-Who-is-Francois-Hollande-part-two

Angela and Nicolas: The Happy Couple: http://www.france24.com/en/20120207-2012-02-07-0950-wb-en-campaign-chronicles

Marine Le Pen unable to run in elections: fact or fiction? http://www.france24.com/en/20120201-2012-02-01-0950-wb-en-campaign-chronicles

Presidential elections: Is Sarkozy doomed? http://www.france24.com/en/20120202...ns-polls-vat-francois-hollande-ump-socialists

Sarkozy vs. Hollande: A Feisty New Year: http://www.france24.com/en/20120105...de-leparisien-presidential-elections-tensions
 

WARCOCK

Banned
So far he seems pretty down to earth, even though the UMP tries to drag the PS through the mud, but that's usual practice.

Heh ecoute dans notre monde actuel, hollande looks like a knight in shining armor atop a white horse. Just preserving the status quo of social democracy seems like worth voting for on its own at this point.
 

Kurtofan

Member
Heh ecoute dans notre monde actuel, hollande looks like a knight in shining armor atop a white horse. Just preserving the status quo of social democracy seems like worth voting for on its own at this point.

I totally agree with you, we need to stop the damages right now.I don't even believe Hollande will be able to take back what Sarko suppressed, but that's better than 5 more years of Gueant, Morano, and co.

And for the first time ever the Left would control the presidency and both houses of parliament.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Hollande président.

Right now I'm pretty sure that unless someone screws up big time, Sarkozy's doomed. Even if that means we must have Bayrou as a president, I'm OK with that. I'm still shocked at how he (Sarkozy) manages to lead people into believing he's competent.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Quite frankly I'm amazed at what they have been doing right since the primary, considering what Hollande was a few years ago...
 

G.O.O.

Member
Also, how do people here feel about the 500 signatures rule, and the fact that Le Pen might not be able to run ?
 
I have a feeling that, even though Hollande's polls numbers are great and people seem to dislike Sarkozy a lot, in the end Sarkozy will get re-elected.
 
Latest poll:

1) Hollande (30%, loses 1 point)
2) Sarkozy (26%, wins 1 point)
3) Le Pen (17.5%, +0.5 point)
4) Bayrou (13%, -2 points)

http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/politique/hollande-toujours-devant-sarkozy-6979116.html

Sarkozy rumored to launch his official campaign on February 20, with a "mega-meeting" at the Stade de France, with 80,000 people "to show that he doesn't play in the same category as François Hollande".

http://www.jeanmarcmorandini.com/ar...tade-de-france-pour-son-entree-en-campagne.ht
 
It's a shame Eric Cantona didn't get his 500 signatures. I would've gladly voted for him
for the lulz, and yes I know he didn't want them

"Chasse, pêche et traditions" is more like a joke to me ("Hey, what are you planning to do if you are elected ?" "We wanna establish hunting season all the year. That's about it").

But in all seriousness, I'd be very, very surprised if N. Sarkozy isn't reelected. When was the last time a president wasn't reelected ? Valery Giscard d'Estaing...and that's about it. edit : of course, I'm talking about the 5th Republic period.
 

G.O.O.

Member
But in all seriousness, I'd be very, very surprised if N. Sarkozy isn't reelected. When was the last time a president wasn't reelected ? Valery Giscard d'Estaing...and that's about it.
He also was the only one who was governing at the time. Every other re-elected president had a prime minister from the other wing.

And it's starting to look very much like what happened to VGE, with worse polls for Sarkozy...
 
Great OP! What's the deal with François Bayrou? Normally the role of the "centrist" is reserved to christian democrats, is he like a german/british liberal, social liberal on private issues and conservative/pro bussiness on economy? Or is he more of an italian/french radical? For that matter, where are the radicals? Allied with the PS?
 

Jubern

Member
Also, how do people here feel about the 500 signatures rule, and the fact that Le Pen might not be able to run ?

It's necessary to avoid joke candidatures, that's actually why the rule was created. But the fact that it might prevent Le Pen to run is a huge problem and that's why I'm ok with that proposition to allow anonymous signatures. A serious candidate like Le Pen has the right to run, especially considering how popular she is.

That being said, I hope she crashes and burns HARD. I might respect her right to run but I think anyone voting for her is crazy and/or really desperate.

Sarkozy rumored to launch his official campaign on February 20, with a "mega-meeting" at the Stade de France, with 80,000 people "to show that he doesn't play in the same category as François Hollande".

stade-de-france.jpg

lolwut

I'm... really not sure it's a good idea. Or is it? I'm conflicted about this, but this looks like he's desperate.
 

Kurtofan

Member
..and thats scary for a lot of people..

The same people who thought Soviet tanks would parade in Paris if Mitterand was elected? :p


For that matter, where are the radicals? Allied with the PS?
The Radical Party of the Left are allied the PS, but they aren't very big anyway, they only have power in Corsica and some other departements.

The Radical Party (the original one and now more centre right) candidate former minister of ecology Borloo decided not to run.
 
Great OP! What's the deal with François Bayrou? Normally the role of the "centrist" is reserved to christian democrats, is he like a german/british liberal, social liberal on private issues and conservative/pro bussiness on economy? Or is he more of an italian/french radical? For that matter, where are the radicals? Allied with the PS?

Bayrou IS a christian democrat.
 

Mistouze

user-friendly man-cashews
But in all seriousness, I'd be very, very surprised if N. Sarkozy isn't reelected. When was the last time a president wasn't reelected ? Valery Giscard d'Estaing...and that's about it. edit : of course, I'm talking about the 5th Republic period.
Under the 5th republic the only presidents who got reelected were under a cohabitation (governement from an opposing party) at the end of their first term. So stats wise... Nico is out as VGA has been.

Lol @ Sarkozy officially starting his campain in the Stade the France. No way in hell would he fill it with 80 000 people. PS got 20 000 persons or so and they were fucking giddy about it.
 
Great OP! What's the deal with François Bayrou? Normally the role of the "centrist" is reserved to christian democrats, is he like a german/british liberal, social liberal on private issues and conservative/pro bussiness on economy? Or is he more of an italian/french radical? For that matter, where are the radicals? Allied with the PS?

The radical are marginalized, not really allied with the PS. By american standards, though, Melenchon would be considered an ultra-leftist.


Also, how do people here feel about the 500 signatures rule, and the fact that Le Pen might not be able to run ?
Every single election, le Pen (then father, now daughter) complained about not getting enough signatures, that they were being censored, only to miraculously produce all signatures at the last minute. It's a marketing ploy to complain about being unfairly treated by the media and getting some media attention.
 

Mistouze

user-friendly man-cashews
The radical are marginalized, not really allied with the PS. By american standards, though, Melenchon would be considered an ultra-leftist.
And a massive attention whore. Last night's Petit Journal (our Daily Show) was fucking priceless. Motherfucker planned all of his media interventions at the very end of January/start of February, in a 10 day span he has been EVERYWHERE. Major radio shows, major tv news, newspapers, the whole she-bang. And during his meeting, wich was broadcasted live on the two 24 hour news channel he... railed on the media shutting him up using official stats for the month of january, ending right before his big media barnum.

MASTER TROLL.

EDIT : Btw Comp, thanks for the godtier OP!
 
From what i've read, I'm pretty sure Melanchon would be considered ultra-leftist even by european standards.

Does DSK even matter anymore?
 

Mistouze

user-friendly man-cashews
From what i've read, I'm pretty sure Melanchon would be considered ultra-leftist even by european standards.
He's a former member of the Socialist Party who splitted and took control over what was left of the Communist Party

Does DSK even matter anymore?
So far, he is politically DEAD. All of his former political posse are now scattered among the remaining PS bigger players. But I wouldn't bet on him never coming back.
 
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