• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Pachter Prediction: PS4 and Xbox 720 400$ or "99$ with subscription plan".

Bgamer90

Banned
Man, I actually agree with Pachter lol.

It's obvious that MS is currently testing out a subscription model for next gen with the recent "$99 Xbox 360".
 
The PS4 would have absolutely no selling point with hardware close to the WiiU.

You act as if they can't create a selling point. Until the WiiU controller price was revealed I thought Sony should be pushing for a system with a similar set up but using the CPU to run 4 controllers at once; but now thats obviously not a good business move.

Ofc with a more simple controller they can produce a system to the same value of a WiiU with a lot more power. Now, if they can match the WiiU price or get as close as possible then they definitely have a selling point. Affordable and powerful.

Whilst much like the 360/PS3 this gen, developers will develop for the lower platform and port upwards. MS had a more powerful and more expensive console before - it didn't work out.

PS4 should be under the 720; and not too far away from WiiU. Sony have Japan to think about as well, they can get cross-platform support with WiiU to some degree this gen more than last; but they need to have an affordable console.
 

hachi

Banned
F--- subscriptions driving recent technology trends, phones or otherwise. I have lost faith in the contemporary consumer, as it seems no one is capable of handling their purchases and costs up-front anymore.
 

Dabanton

Member
F--- subscriptions driving recent technology trends, phones or otherwise. I have lost faith in the contemporary consumer, as it seems no one is capable of handling their purchases and costs up-front anymore.

Well for phones the constant fast turnover means buying a new phone is seen as a waste by most people. And the price of a non subscription smartphone is obscene.

May as well subscribe and at least be able to get a new phone every year.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
F--- subscriptions driving recent technology trends, phones or otherwise. I have lost faith in the contemporary consumer, as it seems no one is capable of handling their purchases and costs up-front anymore.

So you pay for smartphones out of contract?

I'm sorry but there is really no point in getting a smartphone out of contract if it costs $600+ out of contract. Especially when the new editions of phones that come out each year aren't really big jumps from their predecessors. 2 years (avg. contract length) makes for a much bigger jump/improvement.
 
How do people still doubt that you can make a machine drastically more powerful than current ones a year from now for $400? The current PS3 already makes a profit at just $250 for God's sake....

People thought the Vita was going to be $350+ when it was unveiled too. They've clearly figured out ways to drive costs down quickly.
 
So you pay for smartphones out of contract?

I'm sorry but there is really no point in getting a smartphone out of contract if it costs $600+ out of contract. Especially when the new editions of phones that come out each year aren't really big jumps from their predecessors. 2 years (avg. contract length) makes for a much bigger jump/improvement.

Not to mention that the subsidized cost is part of the contract whether you buy their phones or not... So if you buy an out of contract phone, you're still paying the price as if you were subsidizing a phone so you end up losing a lot more money.
 
This could be an interesting game of chicken for Sony and MS. If one releases the a super powerful console and the other releases one closer to the Wii U, it would seem the one who went all out could be screwed. If they both go all out, then Wii U would be left in the cold. But if they all are closer to Wii U, they would all be fine.
 
I actually think the idea of a subscription plan makes more and more sense as I think about it. It allows for Sony and Msoft to get a enormous influx of buyers and ensures a pricing model that will be sustainable for a long time.

This could be an interesting game of chicken for Sony and MS. If one releases the a super powerful console and the other releases one closer to the Wii U, it would seem the one who went all out could be screwed. If they both go all out, then Wii U would be left in the cold. But if they all are closer to Wii U, they would all be fine.

I would be absolutely shocked if either them don't go all out this cycle. Their definitely making machines that will be top-tier they are just going about it in a smarter way....Hopefully.
 
I actually think the idea of a subscription plan makes more and more sense as I think about it. It allows for Sony and Msoft to get a enormous influx of buyers and ensures a pricing model that will be sustainable for a long time.

I agree, time the contracts so they expire about the time the "slim" version of next gen consoles show up and perhaps even offer a trade in deal (say, wave the first or last year of the subscription when you trade in the old console for the slim) and you'll get a lot of people double dipping for extra profits.
 

Danj

Member
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to a PS3 or Wii owner... but if the subscription includes X-box Gold subscription (which many people were getting anyways) then it's only adding a couple dollars and cuts down on upfront price.

I'd definitely go for a subscription model if it included Live Gold (on the Xbox side) or PS+ (on the Playstation side). I've never been able to afford a console at launch so it'd be nice for a change.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
This could be an interesting game of chicken for Sony and MS. If one releases the a super powerful console and the other releases one closer to the Wii U, it would seem the one who went all out could be screwed. If they both go all out, then Wii U would be left in the cold. But if they all are closer to Wii U, they would all be fine.


I think it will be a repeat of this gen. The Nintendo console will get outdated fast with 3rd party devs leaving it behind after a year or two to focus on the Xbox & Playstation.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Honestly, the subscription model for a game console is a ridiculous concept.

How have the 360s with the subscription model sold?

Does anybody know?
 
The only thing that would accomplish is handing the whole core market to MS.

I don't buy this for a second. The top of the line people? Yeah, sure. So what?

General "core gamers" did not leave the Wii just because of power. Core gamers left the Wii because they just weren't getting games. And there are a LOT of factors as to why it didn't other than the console's strength. Nintendo was in an incredibly tough situation to get any 3rd parties on board with them - the age-old "Only Nintendo sells on Nintendo systems" mantra that still goes on today, Nintendo just had 2 generations at the bottom of the pack, and the Wii itself was just an incredibly risky system from a company that seemingly lost the market already.

Yes, power was AN issue with the Wii. Although that too wouldn't be the same, since the Wii was competing with 2 high-power systems so it ended up being a "Wii or PS360" situation for developers. If PS4 could be within a workable range with Wii U it could actually turn it the other way around to Nextbox's disadvantage.

Anyways, I am not saying Sony will make PS4 a "weak" system. I am just arguing the idea that general core gamers will only go to the strongest system and that making PS4 a mid-tier system would "hand the market over to the stronger MS".
 

gatti-man

Member
The problem with Vita was they misread the market. The problem with PS3 was they shot for the moon, techwise. They need a middle-of-the-road console that still stands a chance to profit.

Forehead slap.


This is such a myth. The ps3 was expensive because of bluray. The GAMING tech in the ps3 was equal to the 360 all things considered (harder to dev for but a slightly higher ceiling for exclusives). Sony has yet to release a gaming powerhouse. Hopefully this will be their first.
 

GavinGT

Banned
Forehead slap.


This is such a myth. The ps3 was expensive because of bluray. The GAMING tech in the ps3 was equal to the 360 all things considered (harder to dev for but a slightly higher ceiling for exclusives). Sony has yet to release a gaming powerhouse. Hopefully this will be their first.

You're splitting hairs about what I mean by "shooting for the moon, techwise"? How can you infer something so specific from such a general statement?
 
Forehead slap.


This is such a myth. The ps3 was expensive because of bluray. The GAMING tech in the ps3 was equal to the 360 all things considered (harder to dev for but a slightly higher ceiling for exclusives). Sony has yet to release a gaming powerhouse. Hopefully this will be their first.

WiFi, hard drive, HDMI, XDR, CELL, and an entire ps2 built in didn't contribute to the costs and qualify as shooting for the moon?
 

Somnid

Member
If I have Live forced down my throat even more I'm not buying Microsoft's console. Playing Dark Souls, Vanquish and Bayonetta recently and every time I start the game "Oh hey you're missing out on stuff because you don't have a live subscription are you sure you wish to continue?" Fuck you.

At this point we're locking basic functionality behind subscription plans. I can't deal with it anymore.
 
So, due to Pacher's Law, both machines will definitely launch at a price point greater than $500 or below $300 and there will be no contract option.
 

gatti-man

Member
WiFi, hard drive, HDMI, XDR, CELL, and an entire ps2 built in didn't contribute to the costs and qualify as shooting for the moon?

The ps2 was in launch units only. The 360 had a $100 wifi dongle. The rsx and dumb ram design says no they didn't as a gaming console.
 
$400 would be a sweet spot for me. Wouldn't even think about it, really. Although I'd probably just get one console not two, for at least a year or more.

I'd expect a subscription plan too, subsidize the console. Say like a $100 - $200 with $20/mo subscription including Live/etc. IF they bundled in like 1 downloadable game a month, I'd be all over that.
 
If Sony is actually smart enough to do this it will be the best thing the company has ever done.

A subscription model will fail and spell doom for Sony.

Do not do it

Its brilliant. If the system launched at $100-$150 year subscription fee that included PS+ it would be a enormous success.
 

jimi_dini

Member
In this latest edition of Pach-Attack, Pachter predicts that the PS4 and Xbox 720 could likely be 400$ and/or be 99$ with a subscription plan, similar to what Microsoft is doing with the 360.

He also says that if this does happen, the Wii U wouldn't be able to keep up with that kind of offer.

Okay reverse everything:

PS4 + 720 will be 600$ without a subscription plan.
Wii U will be able to keep up

Good news.
 

Sipowicz

Banned
subscription could be an issue

if i have to pay money to play a console on a day to day basis i dont buy that console. if i have to sign up for a 24 month contract for a console i dont buy that console. add in the anti-used game bullshit sony and microsoft apparently have. add in the lack of backwards compatibility. Add in the almost complete inferiority of next gen consoles compared to PC's despite using similar parts and it's not an attractive package
 

GavinGT

Banned
Can anyone tell me Pachter's job? Does he just get paid to make predictions?

He gets paid to advise investors. A large part of that is making predictions.

He mostly focuses on software, though. So whenever he makes hardware predictions they're not really done in a professional capacity.
 

gatti-man

Member
Yup. For the first time they will be able to get the hardcore launch day buyers and those that wait for the price drop.

Uh oh. On second thought roll that out 3 months after launch please.


subscription could be an issue

if i have to pay money to play a console on a day to day basis i dont buy that console. if i have to sign up for a 24 month contract for a console i dont buy that console. add in the anti-used game bullshit sony and microsoft apparently have. add in the lack of backwards compatibility. Add in the almost complete inferiority of next gen consoles compared to PC's despite using similar parts and it's not an attractive package
Apparently ps4 alpha kits are packing a 7970. If that's true then console beast mode is a possibility.
 

angelfly

Member
As soon as MS announced their 360 subscription plan I knew if it was successful it's be an excuse for $500-$600 entry prices into next gen. Haven't heard anything from MS on the programs progress so it could still go either way. If it works out I can see both Sony and MS offering them for the next systems.
 

QaaQer

Member
Of course, but the whole industry in Japan is suffering its not just a Sony thing. And for comparison they have more cash reserves than any other Japanese company I believe.

The only way to get out of a low is providing products people want.

this. why is apple worth so much, because people want to buy their products. If sony can make a compelling console at $500, they will succeed. How many $500+ ipads, $1000+ macs, or $700+ iphones have been sold?

If Sony is planning on releasing a wiiu powered console for $199, it would be DOA.
 
People thought the Vita was going to be $350+ when it was unveiled too. They've clearly figured out ways to drive costs down quickly.

People were comparing it to a $250 3DS and still didn't know about the over priced propriety Vita memory cards. Little did we know the 3DS was way overpriced and that Sony would gouge us on memory cards. Going back if you asked people what the price was going to be of a Vita with those two things known, the answers would have been different.

I think it will be a repeat of this gen. The Nintendo console will get outdated fast with 3rd party devs leaving it behind after a year or two to focus on the Xbox & Playstation.

Correct but for the West, I see Japanese developers looking at the WiiU as "good enough" since social, online, and tech doesn't matter over there.
 
this. why is apple worth so much, because people want to buy their products. If sony can make a compelling console at $500, they will succeed. How many $500+ ipads, $1000+ macs, or $700+ iphones have been sold?

If Sony is planning on releasing a wiiu powered console for $199, it would be DOA.

There is no chance that is happening.
 
Top Bottom