-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Pachter: Wii U a "mistake Nintendo may never recover from"
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
Samurai-Don
Banned
I don't hate him but I get sick and tired of his arrogant attitude and how he act like he knows everything when he doesn't.
I usually tend to ignore him but his rubbish get very annoying.
It Patcher you know the guy who one said that the PS3 is more powerful than PC.
My thoughts exactly. Even if the Wii U proves to be as unimpressive as the Gamecube they'll still have the fighting spirit with their next console. It would take back to back failures to cripple Nintendo enough to stop making their consoles.
Baconsammy
Banned
He doesn't act like he knows everything. He studies past data and current trends and extrapolates. How do you translate that into "arrogance"?
His analysis had nothing to do with Nintendo as a company or its future viability. It's about the disaster that is the Wii U, and to a lesser extent the 3DS' problems in the West. 3DS has the enviable position of having no real direct competition, whereas he's right to be more skeptical of the Wii U since it's struggling against two 8 year old consoles that are about to be replaced by two far more powerful consoles.
I think a lot of us just have to take a deep breath and move on. Pachter is a well known figure/analyst in the video game industry and so he says things that will garner attention. That's his shpeel and it'll stay that way as long as he has an audience to speak with. It may be annoying, agitating, and perhaps a tad dishonest but we can't let ourselves get too emotional over it. Disagree with the man if you must be let's all take the hate and intensity out of it.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Is that worth getting worked up over?
Exactly. It isn't an exact science and because of that any discrepancy that arises from it people will blame his person hood for. I think everyone has to understand that with analysts predictions are largely wrong because no one can directly predict future circumstances or events no matter how much information you may have.
Baconsammy
Banned
So don't click on them. It's really easy.
All I'm saying is Pachter doesn't seem to be using facts or data to support his arguments, he is using personal opinion and its like he just hates Nintendo. He is usually wrong and admits he doesn't understand Nintendo's strategy yet it tends to work out for them.
He said the PSP would wipe the floor with the DS. He was wrong.
He said the Wii not being HD would be there downfall. He was wrong.
He said Nintendo needed a Wii HD by 2009-2010. They didn't. 2010 was the Wii's best year in software releases.
Every console has struggled at launch this gen and last gen. 360 and PS3 took a couple years to get units moving (after key titles accumulated and price cuts occurred) and the 3DS is just hitting its stride.
My point is it is too really to start making bold statements like "Wii U is a mistake Nintendo won't recover from". The Vita, Wii U, and 3DS should be given a good two years on the market before Judging them.
Pachter just likes to stir up and shit and stroke his ego.
He said the PSP would wipe the floor with the DS. He was wrong.
He said the Wii not being HD would be there downfall. He was wrong.
He said Nintendo needed a Wii HD by 2009-2010. They didn't. 2010 was the Wii's best year in software releases.
Every console has struggled at launch this gen and last gen. 360 and PS3 took a couple years to get units moving (after key titles accumulated and price cuts occurred) and the 3DS is just hitting its stride.
My point is it is too really to start making bold statements like "Wii U is a mistake Nintendo won't recover from". The Vita, Wii U, and 3DS should be given a good two years on the market before Judging them.
Pachter just likes to stir up and shit and stroke his ego.
wasn't expecting a different reply from one of the most productive contributors to such topics
and you know, a thread title tells you exactly whats inside sometimes, even without reading it
How does quoting bannable posts with a little witty comment add to the discussion? Surely, the mods don't need your help in figuring out who needs to be banned and whatnot, don't you think?
Anyway, Nintendo needs to figure out where they want to go with the Wii U and act fast, because they're likely to quickly lose mindshare to PS720 and iOS/Android if the heavy hitters don't come, soon. I think there are two options: either try to salvage the platform through 3rd party partnerships, new IPs and an aggressive marketing campaign, or shift most of their resources towards a "third pillar" type platform that will address most of the Wii U's perceived problems (weak hardware, less appealing gimmick) and release 3-4 years from now.
Anyway, Nintendo needs to figure out where they want to go with the Wii U and act fast, because they're likely to quickly lose mindshare to PS720 and iOS/Android if the heavy hitters don't come, soon. I think there are two options: either try to salvage the platform through 3rd party partnerships, new IPs and an aggressive marketing campaign, or shift most of their resources towards a "third pillar" type platform that will address most of the Wii U's perceived problems (weak hardware, less appealing gimmick) and release 3-4 years from now.
BlockheadBrown
Member
Baconsammy
Banned
Yes, I'm sure about it because he himself clarified it.
All the more reason not to click on them. How much of a reply did you think your complaint deserved? When Nintendo does good/great things, there's threads. When they screw up, there's threads. Do you think the same doesn't apply to Microsoft and Sony? No one is out to get Nintendo. If you think there won't be negative threads at a time when their handheld is floundering in the West and their main console is dead all over the world, you're deluded.
flyinpiranha
Member
I agreed with what was said in the article and I agree even more with his further explanation of it.
I'll never understand the anger at his "flip-flop" look at things. He's an analyst, I would hope his perception of industry standards changes daily depending on data.
"What's the score?"
"24 to 35"
"Thanks"
"How about now?"
"34 to 40"
"What the fuck man? You said a few minutes ago that it was 24 to 35?!"
I'll never understand the anger at his "flip-flop" look at things. He's an analyst, I would hope his perception of industry standards changes daily depending on data.
"What's the score?"
"24 to 35"
"Thanks"
"How about now?"
"34 to 40"
"What the fuck man? You said a few minutes ago that it was 24 to 35?!"
Your analogy is inaccurate.
"What do you think the score will be?"
"24 to 35"
"Thanks"
"So what was it?"
"34 to 40"
"What the fuck man? You said a few minutes ago that it would be 24 to 35?!"
BlockheadBrown
Member
The post he made sounds more like backpedaling to me than anything else. It's worth reading the initial quotes and then his clarification. Although the data he provided is nice and supportive of his "clarification" post, it does not add up to what I would consider a clarification of the initial quotes.
walking fiend
Member
What pachter does is basically this:
A is not selling, so it will never sell.
A is selling, so it will sell forever.
And his idiocy extrapolating data far beyond the domain that the current trend will hold valid.
---
The only good analysis he did was when he said Nintendo needs an HD Wii; he had really put some effort into analyzing the situation back then
A is not selling, so it will never sell.
A is selling, so it will sell forever.
And his idiocy extrapolating data far beyond the domain that the current trend will hold valid.
---
The only good analysis he did was when he said Nintendo needs an HD Wii; he had really put some effort into analyzing the situation back then
Unknown One
Member
We had doomsday Vita/PS3 threads for ages. We had those Vita threads for almost a year now and there is another one. Nintendo fans should just get use to it or avoid the doomsday threads in general.
Gee. Not one, but TWO threads that don't talk about a corporate company in a positive way.
Definitely worth thowing out bannable, personal insults.
He also provided the email from the journalist and his exact reply. What more clarification could you possibly need?
BlockheadBrown
Member
I missed that. I'll look it up.
My apologies to Baconsammy and michaelpachter for missing it and my thanks to Tobor for pointing it out. It was late. He was tired. A quote came off not exactly has he intended. I'm pretty sure we've all been there. I'll take it at face value from here.
walking fiend
Member
Let's put things mathematically in perspective:
DS was 100~200, on average $150, that is roughly equal to 5DS games sold [which is close to the tie ratio]. Assuming that their profit on the hardware is equal to their profit on 5 games sold [which is a very safe bet, even conservative, considering the budget of their own games], it means in the best case for your hypothesis to be true, half of their profit during the Wii and DS era was from hardware: DS_HW_P=DS_SW_P
Now let's assume that with the hardware, they are not making any more profit [which should mean that they were losing ~80 on each 3DS XL bundle sold at $160 this holiday, which considering its Nintendo, is preposterous].
Let's also assume that hardware sales for 3DS is going to be half of that of DS [which for all we know, 3DS is tracking DS much closer than this].
So we now should expect them to make a profit equal to 1/2*(DS_HW_P*0+DS_SW_P)=.5*.5DS_P=1/4DS_P
So it's pretty much realistic to expect them make 1/4 of the profit they made with DS; the same can be said with regard to Wii U.
So yeah, they aren't going to make 2b proft per year, but they definitely are not going to be in the red at all either; all said and done, they will probably make more profit than either Sony and MS.
flyinpiranha
Member
I stand by my original. He takes the data from "now" and extrapolates. The thing is, is this market is ever changing. Price drops, software announcements, and many things that a majority of people in the industry do not know.
Is he right? Probably not as much as he'd hope. But I really haven't seen anybody "analyze" gaming and be correct outside of the obvious statements.
I also assume many of his answers are just quips and quick hits from interviewers knowing it will generate a few thousand hits.
Neither OoT nor Prime changed up the Zelda or Metroid formula too much. OoT followed the pattern laid out by LttP exactly. Three Pendents, Master Sword, Seven Sages/Maidens, Ganon Fight. The differences between OoT and LttP is purely storyline and the fact OoT is in a 3D World.
As for Metroid Prime, it follows the formula that Metroid, Metroid II, and Super Metroid followed. You are alone on an alien planet with freedom to explore it. Most of Metroid Prime's praise comes from it making Metroidvania work in 3D. Again, the most novel thing is that the world is 3D.
Gucci Messiah
Banned
Stop that
SolarPowered
Member
Nintendo has already lost most of the mindshare they built with the Wii and even some of the core audience that was left during the Gamecube days. Something many here keep skirting around. Just like people keep skirting around how mismatched this hardware is for the market by pretending that price is drowning a $350 machine when far more expensive gaming consoles have weathered the same issue. The spotlight should be on NCL and it's ignorance to the world outside of Japan.
If I'm Nintendo, here's my move:
But on a brave face, act tough publically, but start work on a next-gen console immediately, as a skunkworks thing. Make it competitive or a little better than the new MS and Sony systems, but tailor it to support an optional-but-included VR headset, a la Oculus Rift. It would be a perfect fit for a Wiimote-like controller and have wide casual appeal.
Then, in maybe 2 years, if (ok, when) the WiiU situation is totally untenable roll this baby out. Since the next console cycle is going to be like 9 years or more, being a couple years out of sync is really not the issue it once was. I think they'd do alright.
I don't see them salvaging this mess, so just make the next one count and don't sleep on it.
But on a brave face, act tough publically, but start work on a next-gen console immediately, as a skunkworks thing. Make it competitive or a little better than the new MS and Sony systems, but tailor it to support an optional-but-included VR headset, a la Oculus Rift. It would be a perfect fit for a Wiimote-like controller and have wide casual appeal.
Then, in maybe 2 years, if (ok, when) the WiiU situation is totally untenable roll this baby out. Since the next console cycle is going to be like 9 years or more, being a couple years out of sync is really not the issue it once was. I think they'd do alright.
I don't see them salvaging this mess, so just make the next one count and don't sleep on it.
DeviousAngel
Member
Well they could do that OR they could make the existing hardware more attractive in one of two ways: 1) lower the price or 2) by releasing more compelling software. Both pricing and lack of games once held back the 3DS and I can't help but feel that it is holding back the WiiU right now.
Then there's marketing, which so far has been pretty lackluster. I'm not seeing anything like the Wii's aggressive marketing campaign.
Mikey Jr.
Member
So the Wii was essentially killed off early (lets be honest, the games the last 2 years have been non-existent.)
Then kill off the WiiU like you said.
Then bring out a new console.
Why the fuck would I trust Nintendo at that point?
The problem with the former is that they're not going to underbid the 360 and PS3 which will continue to occupy the budget slot. And the latter won't help third party much. I can't see them riding this one out to anywhere near the end of the generation.
I mean even the Wii didn't. Nintendo's been pretty much hibernating the last year leading up to the Wii U in the same way Sega did between Saturn and Dreamcast. That's not good planning. They need to be ready this time.
If the new thing is cool, and it offers something you can't get elsewhere, people will try it.
They have no alternative. Even if the WiiU picks up steam, it is NOT a long-term plan. The hardware is garbage and people are utterly apathetic to the gimmick. In two years, cell phone games will be outpacing it just like they did with the Wii, and it'll be a joke. They need something with staying power.
gamergirly
Member
Weathered is an overly nice term given recent YOY sales numbers and the state of the industry in general. I don't think $400 new systems will be faring much better either with $60 games and current DLC pricing tiers(season pass LOL) or things like the heavily rumored anti-used game procedures. Nintendo has taken the biggest hit but there is no rosy outlook for their competitors future in the same token
Steve Youngblood
Member
That's the biggest question mark. I think there's room in the marketplace for a new, dedicated gaming console to capture the public's interest in a way that the Wii U hasn't, but I could also see them squandering that chance by doubling down on the worst innovations of this gen and failing to showcase anything that doesn't seem altogether feasible on existing machines. Either way, tomorrow starts off what promises to be an interesting period of news.
lol yeah ok. And my post doesn't deserve any reply, I don't care in the slightest about what people think about what i write. I just said I wasn't expecting a different reply from you
just put him on your ignore list so that you can ignore him easier
speculawyer
Member
Remember when he was saying the WiiHD was coming soon?
Holy shit, there's a 5DS!
Time and games. That'll remedy most of the problems.
Ninty will also find its vision and voice with the system, and learn to communicate it better through more effective advertising.
I think right now, there's a ton of anticipation for the next-gen systems from Sony and MS and people are staying their hands until all of their choices become clear.
My guess is that those new boxes will come in at higher prices than WiiU, and by the time they make it to market, WiiU will have started to develop an attractive game library.
It may be possible for WiiU to get "Dreamcasted," but I don't think it will happen. I seem to remember Sega execs back in the day saying it's hard to fight the hype of a system no one knows about, because it's all wine and roses until the real deal, with all its flaws, is revealed.
That's true. I just think that once we can see and compare all of the options, WiiU will be a more viable contender than some see it now.
Ninty will also find its vision and voice with the system, and learn to communicate it better through more effective advertising.
I think right now, there's a ton of anticipation for the next-gen systems from Sony and MS and people are staying their hands until all of their choices become clear.
My guess is that those new boxes will come in at higher prices than WiiU, and by the time they make it to market, WiiU will have started to develop an attractive game library.
It may be possible for WiiU to get "Dreamcasted," but I don't think it will happen. I seem to remember Sega execs back in the day saying it's hard to fight the hype of a system no one knows about, because it's all wine and roses until the real deal, with all its flaws, is revealed.
That's true. I just think that once we can see and compare all of the options, WiiU will be a more viable contender than some see it now.
mentalfloss
Banned
Wayyyyy too early to make the judgement call that Pachter made.
Especially considering Nintendo will most likely make a significant profit on software and costs will go down.
Especially considering Nintendo will most likely make a significant profit on software and costs will go down.
That's actually a really good point. Nintendo has more than enough cash to suck up all the stock it has up there, and they're already a big company who doesn't need the shareholder support. Listening to investors is probably just gonna harm them in the long run.
Those fitness/casual people are still out there waiting for Nintendo to bring them back in.
The first reason those weight loss folks bought a Wii was because it also came with the name recognition of Nintendo. That is a household entertainment name like Disney, but Microsoft and Sony bring with them a kind of tech-geek image and fan base. This tech image is scary for a lot of that casual audience.
The second reason the Wii succeeded was it's simplistic controller which couldn't even intimidate your grandma. The Wii U followed that up with a tablet. A device which is similar to the smart phones most people use everyday.
These casual gamers are still out there waiting to be spoken to and they probably won't buy a Xbox or Playstation because they think it'll be too complex.
If the next generation only comes down to core gamers Nintendo is all but lost. But, if it comes down to the mixing of casual and hardcore, which I think it will, Nintendo is still in a fine position.
These are not the rantings of a fan boy just my own thoughts about the industry as I see it.
Catchpenny
Member
Well yeah, but it's kinda gross when your semen is all over said threads.
They won't have long to wait, then, as Wii Fit U is on it's way.
As for Pachter, as long as people listen to what he has to say, he will continue to spout bullshit. Stop giving him an audience! He's been wrong about almost everything he's said about Nintendo.
Agreed , The Wii and DS were designed around expanding the gaming audience. 3ds nor Wii have found that audience.
3DS and WiiU have both failed to find hits like brain training , nintendogs, Wii fit or Wii sports. Nintendogs for 3ds tanked ,Nintendoland tried but looks like it has missed , (unless casuals are just late to play it as they were with Wii sports)