Brad Henry was reelected only about 10 years ago and it was the bolded then and when it was a Democratic stronghold in the beginning.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Brad Henry was reelected only about 10 years ago and it was the bolded then and when it was a Democratic stronghold in the beginning.
Things have changed a lot in the past 10 years.
Rural areas are about to literally start dying off as they lose more people to death than there are babies being born there.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Always be ready in case of scandal. I don't think it's something to count on, but you need to be ready if you get JBE lucky and get an opponent who skipped out on a veteran bill to call his prostitute who dresses him up like a baby.
the chancellor of the University of MS is Vitter's brother and I imagine Thanksgiving is awkward as fuck after that race.
Autodidact
Banned
*Dixiecrat stronghold
Let me speak more bluntly. The neanderthals I mentioned hate black people. They blame the Democratic Party for inflicting the evil black president upon them. Ergo, they will never vote Democratic again. Fallin and the blood-red legislature have decimated the tax base and revenue, forced schools to close or implement four-day weeks, and blatantly sold the state to big oil and gas. She won reelection handily in 2014, and another Republican will win next year. Hatred, justified with and fueled by religion, drives politics and society to an extreme degree.
Come visit!
Box of Kittens
Banned
One thing to keep in mind about Walker is that he's faced easy circumstances every time he's run. 2010 was a red wave and outgoing Democratic governor Jim Doyle was unpopular. The recall was a strategic mistake, as many people voted for him because they disapproved of the idea of recalling a governor over a political issue. Republicans had the wind at their backs in 2014 and the best Wisconsin Dems could put up against him was a Madison school board member.
His approvals aren't terrible right now but they're still underwater (the most recent poll I could find had him at 45/48). Taking him down probably won't be easy, but it would certainly be doable with a good candidate, especially since 2018 is showing early signs that it could be a blue wave.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Oh lord, the gunman posted on Handel's Facebook page during the debate.
Autodidact
Banned
Did he comment on the AHCA?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
No but he did call her a "Republican Bitch".
CrimzonSamurai
Member
I highly doubt anyone in the district is going to tie the gunman to Ossof.
Autodidact
Banned
No, they'll tie him to Pelosi and THEN to Ossoff.
Fenderputty
Banned
If you're doing that you weren't voting for him anyway.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Not concerned about it dragging on Ossoff, more concerned about it goosing GOP turnout
Democrats have no power in almost all of the South and not just OK. I kinda don't want it to stay that way for x amount of decades and possibly a century. There is a substantial Democratic Party constituency down here.
Sadly I don't see how that can change considering the area has been culturally conservative for all of its existence. That's why it's the "conservative South"
Aaron Strife
Banned
Flipping New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont would give us total D control in those states. Those should all be priorities.
In Colorado we need to hold the governor's seat and flip the Senate which would take exactly one seat.
Likewise, we could flip the Maine Senate just by winning one seat and we'd also need the governor's mansion, though if Collins jumps in then good luck.
New Hampshire is fully R-controlled but the House is so large it's easily subject to big swings. The Senate would just need three seats to go D and Sununu is up for re-election.
Basically I think our biggest goal in 2018 re:state government races should be to gain as many D trifectas as possible because we currently only have six (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Oregon, Rhode Island). We can win one in Washington by flipping a Senate seat this November in a special election. If we won that and then won all the states I just mentioned, we'd have full control in 17 of the 20 Clinton states.
The only exceptions would be Minnesota (we can win the House next year, but the Senate which is one seat away from flipping isn't up until 2020), Virginia (likewise, including a one-seat margin in the Senate, but that would be in 2019), and New York (fuck the IDC). Still we should try to make as many gains in those states as possible. Say winning the VA House and MN House while giving Democrats at least nominal control over the NY Senate, and maybe primarying a few IDC assholes out of power.
Trump states:
Governor's races in the other states you mentioned will be important (FL, GA, IA, KS, MI, OH, WI) because with the exception of Iowa all of them have been brutally gerrymandered. I could conceive of flipping individual chambers in a really good year, like the Michigan House or the Wisconsin Senate along with their gubernatorial contests. If Trump backlash is big in Iowa we could paint the state blue overnight since it does have fair maps, though I'm skeptical given its hard lurch right.
Like whyamihere mentioned, Arizona is a potential pickup opportunity as well, and Democrats could flip the Senate with just three seats (or tie it with two).
Wild card here is North Carolina which will have new legislative maps. They may have elections this year depending on how the courts rule, but even if they don't that still creates an opportunity for another D trifecta. The other red states with Dem governors (Montana, West Virginia, Alaska with its independent) probably aren't electing D legislatures anytime soon.
Ok I just vomited a lot of information but I just think the GOP's seemingly iron fist on a lot of these state governments is actually rather tenuous, and 2018 (2017 in some cases) could be fucking huge for us.
Arizona could very well replace Wisconsin in the electoral math. Obama didn't bother, but it was a 3-point race with Clinton and Trump as it was with Flake and Carmona in 2012.
Autodidact
Banned
Oklahoma wants to be southern so badly, but it ain't. Don't let it fool you.
Democrats have slightly more power in the deep south (AL, MS, GA, SC) because of those states' higher black populations. All of them, for example, have at least one Democratic representative.
What did he say?
SC wouldn't if it weren't gerrymandered so that Clyburn could keep his spot
Don't forgot we voted for Newt in the primary, had a GOP governor who lied about having a mistress and then was voted into the house as a FC members, and also spawned Meals-on-wheels-is-worthless Mulvaneyz
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
whyamihere
Banned
This is an important, but also speaks to the polling in GA-6. 70% is higher than how I'd think about it!
Poodlestrike
Banned
Jesus, he capitalized the first letter of every word?
Maybe he really is mentally disturbed.
Maybe he really is mentally disturbed.
Autodidact
Banned
Miss Thang feels himself in some of those Tweets, doesn't he?
Domestic abuser, shits all over female candidates, appropriates language of slavery? It's sad that this is completely unsurprising.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Was momentarily surprised but then I realized it's very Alabama in places here.
I obviously don't believe that the violence is justified in any way here, but it's not surprising to me that people would have extreme reactions to feeling like they are being made to suffer artificial precarity. These kinds of outcomes are actually pretty predictable and expected. It's unfortunate that this man had access to weapons that allowed him to channel those feelings in such a destructive way.
That being said, I also don't know what the shooter's actual life was like, aside from the battery charge he had against him for the domestic assault.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Christie is at 15/81 :jnc
Macho Madness
Member
Trump is being investigated for obstruction of justice by Mueller
Associates are also being investigated for possible financial crimes.
Fire him now.
Associates are also being investigated for possible financial crimes.
Fire him now.
nature boy
Member
Bobby Three Sticks ain't fucking around, as that Wired piece shows.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Assuming we held every Clinton state, it could also replace MI if we won WI+PA, though MI+PA+AZ leaves a bit of wiggle room which would let us lose CO or NV while WI+PA+AZ only leaves ME as something that could be lost from 2016.
VendettaRed07
Member
If Perez doesn't win the house in 18, he needs to be replaced.
Hooligan69
Member
Which is why it might be ripe for a Democrat, but I won't hold my breath. Let's hope Perez and Ellison realize how important the race is.
benjipwns
Banned
Paul came out against the Iranian sanctions months ago and said he wanted them extensively reworked or he was a hard no on reimposing them. He was also one of the seven Senators to vote against it proceeding to debate last week:
Paul and Chris Murphy also tried to attach an amendment that would limit military aid to Saudi Arabia as long as sanctions against Iran were in place.
Hooligan69
Member
Uh, okay with me, especially when a great portion of them would rather deny reality and science and decency in the name of their team's power. Bye Felicia!
benjipwns
Banned
Not until he rigs the 2020 primaries for Hillary he shouldn't be.
Macho Madness
Member
This is an absolutely disgusting thing to say.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Was this leaked to push him to fire Mueller or justify Comey? I guess I don't get why this is out there.
LOL
The US becoming more metropolitan and less rural is absolutely a good thing for the country.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't help people in the transition, but the net result in terms of social values will be very good for us.
Macho Madness
Member
You may feel that way, but advocating for poor rural people to die to get your way is atrocious. You assume them evil cretins not worthy of your enlightened society and you wonder why they rebel against you. Grow up.
"Rural Areas dying off" is not literally advocating for the residents to die! They're dying because they are full of old people who are dying and not being replaced, not because we're going in with death squads.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Illinois is a big opportunity. Rauner is unpopular and hasn't really distanced himself from Trump. He's kind of in a similar bind as the one we saw Virginia Republicans in last night. Trump is unpopular here, but as the suburban residents who formerly made up the state's moderate Republican base increasingly vote Democratic, the state is left with a Republican base that's very pro-Trump. As in much of the Midwest, Trump made big gains in small towns where Democrats formerly did well, particularly in Western and Southern Illinois. However, those gains were completely canceled out by losses in the Chicago area.
Democrats certainly see the opportunity here, as the field is already pretty crowded and still growing. Still, statewide politics in Illinois can be a little weird due to their highly transactional nature. It's pretty clear that Rauner is going to tie whichever candidate he ends up facing to unpopular House speaker Mike Madigan. Will that strategy succeed? I don't know.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Yeah. We should try our best to ease the transition, but Rural America is doing its damndest to kill the country, and I'm not gonna weep tears of any kind save joy when it's gone.
God, this state is so close to going blue I can taste it.
Hooligan69
Member
Sorry, but how do you help those who don't want to be helped? Why waste energy on those who would rather vote for hateful and hurtful bills just to see your ("the enemy") tears and watch you cry for their enjoyment? Why help those who hate you because you have a higher education, are not christian, are not white, or want the best for the planet? Why help them when they'd do anything to take away healthcare from others while benefitting from it themselves, then still wanting to vote it away? Not worth my time. I'm out of sympathy for those types.
RustyNails
Member
I just found out that Gabby Giffords' seat has gone R since 2014. Smh. Any chance its in play next year?
nature boy
Member
I'm surprised it leaked. Looks like the Senate leaked it.
I'm guessing it's to warn the Orange Dickhead that shit's about to get real.
lawns
I don't think he's advocating for them to die, the while spikes in early deaths in rural areas are a problem, the main population drag is people simply leaving for cities and suburbs; that's not genocide, it's a migration.
It's two separate tracks to talk about compassion for rural America to stop the plague of drug abuse and suicides and say that it's a good thing that they're slowly (voluntarily!) depopulating.
It's two separate tracks to talk about compassion for rural America to stop the plague of drug abuse and suicides and say that it's a good thing that they're slowly (voluntarily!) depopulating.
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