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[Michael F. Assbender]

In other words Trump is Columbo.

 

[Stinkles]

It's premature to discount Trump's overall game plan at this moment, IMO.

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.


Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Hopefully it all adds logically, stinkles

 

[Zvonimir Boban]

In other words Trump is Columbo.

Don't make me slap you.

 

[rjinaz]

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.


Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

That's 14D chess yo!

 

[facelike]

There are people on /r/the_donald vehemently claiming this was all part of Trump's master plan to get rid of Paul Ryan.

4D chess indeed

I'm not part of that community nor support Trump, but I can see Bannon pushing Trump for the vote ASAP so Ryan can take the heat if it fails. Bannon has be after Ryan for a long time and had used Breitbart as the weapon. Trump being behind this is a stretch for me.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.


Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

 

[gcubed]

They're all in on tax reform now. And everything is on the table, both corporate and individual. I'm expecting them to end up raising taxes on the middle class (via getting rid of local/state deductions) to pay for upper class tax cuts.

It's infuriating that Republicans have no damn clue about the importance of aggregate demand for a healthy economy. They're likely going to pass tax reform and it will lead to a recession because the people who spend money will now have less of it.

But it all requires Democrats now. The freedom caucus isn't going to go along with most tax reform bills and neither will Democrats if it's another hand out to the rich

 

[Monocle]

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.


Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

So what you're telling us is he can't stop winning?

 

[Proxy]

If I was in a situation where there was a high probability that I would be impeached for having committed treason; I certainly wouldn't begin to alienate myself from the people who could prevent it from happening.

 

[Beartruck]

So after the window closes on April 15th, what exactly is going to get done before 2018?

Will Ryan actually bring anything up without support of the insane wing?

It's corporate tax reform dead? Individual tax reform?

We know infrastructure is dead.

The stock market is going to start getting real skittish

What'll get done? A lot of golfing at Mar-a-lago I imagine.

 

[thecouncil]

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.

Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

Proud of MY President. #MAGA

 

[Carn82]

 

[LegendofJoe]

But it all requires Democrats now. The freedom caucus isn't going to go along with most tax reform bills and neither will Democrats if it's another hand out to the rich

If they can get tax reform done before April 15th and have it be deficit neutral they can pass it via reconciliation with a simple majority. But yeah if they miss that date they will need Democrats to pass the bill.

And unless there are middle class tax cuts funded by increasing taxes on the wealthy the Democrats aren't going to play ball. We all know how amenable the GOP will be to that plan - lol.

 

[bplewis24]

What the fuck is a game plan where he demonstrates no knowledge of a bill while constantly giving in to the hostage takers.

Trump is the guy at the poker table with an enormously large stack of chips, who leans on the few people left with very little chips. He bluffs a couple times, going all in on somebody who can't afford to be wrong, and people call him a "master bluffer."

Except he inherited all of his chips.

Now he doesn't have the big stack. He has the bully pulpit, but that's it. To get the large stack of chips he has to whip votes, and he's never had to work for it before. He's never been a master negotiator. He's never been a great deal maker. And maybe now his core supporters will actually see that?*

*Ha! Yeah, right!

 

[Dr.Acula]

Trump could literally die in office and there would be a contingent saying it is part of his plan for a Christ-like resurrection.

 

[Red]

I have no idea why reporters keep presenting Paul Ryan as some kind of genius.

I mean, in comparison.

 

[BlueLiquid]

That's 14D chess yo!

That's what at least one of his followers actually believes:

 

[Watch Da Birdie]

Trump just tweeted this:

Watch @JudgeJeanine on @FoxNews tonight at 9:00 P.M.

Wonder what it is...

Also so weird for him to be advertising like this for someone.

 

[obijkenobi]

Trump is the guy at the poker table with an enormously large stack of chips, who leans on the few people left with very little chips. He bluffs a couple times, going all in on somebody who can't afford to be wrong, and people call him a "master bluffer."

Except he inherited all of his chips.

Now he doesn't have the big stack. He has the bully pulpit, but that's it. To get the large stack of chips he has to whip votes, and he's never had to work for it before. He's never been a master negotiator. He's never been a great deal maker. And maybe now his core supporters will actually see that?*

*Ha! Yeah, right!

And he managed to completely fuck over the power/value of the bully pulpit with his shitty ass Tweets and dumb ass statements. I don't know how many articles that I've seen of even Republican Congressman ignoring Trump's tweets/comments because that was Trump being Trump.

 

[More_Badass]

That's what at least one of his followers actually believes:

You could take that another way though

 

[bplewis24]

I'm not part of that community nor support Trump, but I can see Bannon pushing Trump for the vote ASAP so Ryan can take the heat if it fails. Bannon has be after Ryan for a long time and had used Breitbart as the weapon. Trump being behind this is a stretch for me.

This would fall under the "Trump is a useful idiot" scenario (which we already know to be true) and not the "Trump is brilliantly playing chess" scenario. And please know that I'm not arguing against you with the rest of this post, but some other folks I've seen posting about this being some sort of "strategy".

The other great thing about this whole disaster for the majority party (other than the primary great thing of millions of people not losing health care just so millionaires can get tax breaks and racist idealogues can stop feeling like a black person forced healthcare on them) is that it shatters the narrative of Trump being a master strategist who is a few steps ahead.

Remember the folks who said the first travel ban was likely a masterful overreach so that the second travel ban would be implemented? Or the people who said the travel ban was a masterful ploy to get liberals exhausted with the rapid pace of his controversies? Or the folks who said the executive orders were a masterful distraction from the russian controversy and would allow that to go away? Those are the same people who think Trump has now masterfully suffered a humiliating loss that will stay with him and Ryan for at least a few months if not the rest of their term, all so he could (insert something here that in no way overshadows the humiliation from this defeat and the exposure of his lack of deal-making skills or knowledge of policy).

Yeah...no.

 

[Nerokis]

This is such a great article. I don't think I've read anything from Politico this well written and edited before.

It definitely stands out, but I've been impressed with the direction Politico has gone in since (or shortly before?) the original owners left. Longer, more deeply researched articles mixed in with the standard political junkie stuff. It's been a good read for awhile now, even when you aren't necessarily obsessing over a particular horse race.

 

[rjinaz]

That's what at least one of his followers actually believes:

I'm almost sure that's a Trump pseudonym.

 

[metalslimer]

People seriously still think everything is part of Trump's plan. Lmao, I know some liberals like to think this to not know we lost to a buffoon last fall

 

[A Serious Man]

Trump just tweeted this:



Wonder what it is...

Also so weird for him to be advertising like this for someone.

"Tonight on Judge Jeanine, an anonymous source tells us that this was all Paul Ryan's fault."

 

[Stinkles]

Trump just tweeted this:



Wonder what it is...

Also so weird for him to be advertising like this for someone.

100% chance it's some garbage he thinks validates his "tapping" claim. That he himself leaked.

To Judge Jeanine.

 

[Bandini]

Makes me think about Lincoln, probably the most brilliant speaker the white house has seen, and a stone cold master of deal making. Trump's speeches are all emotion and vague promises. He's never going to understand the nuance necessary to get what he wants done as President.

 

[bplewis24]

And he managed to completely fuck over the power/value of the bully pulpit with his shitty ass Tweets and dumb ass statements. I don't know how many articles that I've seen of even Republican Congressman ignoring Trump's tweets/comments because that was Trump being Trump.

That's a great point.

But it all requires Democrats now. The freedom caucus isn't going to go along with most tax reform bills and neither will Democrats if it's another hand out to the rich

Tax reform will be interesting. Here is what I know (correct me if I'm wrong, anybody):

• Both Health Care and Tax Reform were supposed to be passed through reconciliation
• Reconciliation requires that a budget resolution be passed first
• You can only pass one reconciliation agenda item per budget resolution
• That's why they had to move so quickly on health care, so they could then pass another budget resolution for tax reconciliation
• Because they were cutting parts of medicaid through the AHCA, that would allow them to make additional cuts through Tax Reform
• Reconciliation rules state that you cannot pass an item that increases the deficit within ten years

The last couple parts are very important here (and I'm speculating with the rest of this post). Because tax reform would be passed through reconciliation rules (so that it only needs a simple majority and doesn't need to break a filibuster), they can't add to the deficit with their tax breaks, and instead would have to match tax breaks with spending cuts.

IIRC, most entitlements wouldn't come close to matching the tax cuts on their own, so they would have to make cuts to the very popular entitlement programs Social Security & Medicaid/Medicare. These are the ones Paul Ryan has a hard-on for cutting anyway, so this makes sense to me. Now that the AHCA is dead, Ryan would have to make more cuts to medicare to offset their tax reform initiatives.

Let me know if you guys think the logic or the premises of any of this fails. But I believe tax reform just got harder, even though for the GOP base it's a simpler issue that can rally the base together like it has in the past. But because of reconciliation rules, and because they'd be forced to make equal spending cuts, it gets more complex (just like health care did).

This also demonstrates just why Paul Ryan wanted the CBO to use dynamic scoring over the past few years. Dynamic scoring from the CBO would allow them to make the argument that cutting taxes would NOT decrease revenue and create a deficit, because dynamic scoring says that tax cuts actually increase revenue through supply-side magic fairy dust.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

 

[Armaros]

That's a great point.



Tax reform will be interesting. Here is what I know (correct me if I'm wrong, anybody):

• Both Health Care and Tax Reform were supposed to be passed through reconciliation
• Reconciliation requires that a budget resolution be passed first
• You can only pass one reconciliation agenda item per budget resolution
• That's why they had to move so quickly on health care, so they could then pass another budget resolution for tax reconciliation
• Because they were cutting parts of medicaid through the AHCA, that would allow them to make additional cuts through Tax Reform
• Reconciliation rules state that you cannot pass an item that increases the deficit within ten years

The last couple parts are very important here (and I'm speculating with the rest of this post). Because tax reform would be passed through reconciliation rules (so that it only needs a simple majority and doesn't need to break a filibuster), they can't add to the deficit with their tax breaks, and instead would have to match tax breaks with spending cuts.

IIRC, most entitlements wouldn't come close to matching the tax cuts on their own, so they would have to make cuts to the very popular entitlement programs Social Security & Medicaid/Medicare. These are the ones Paul Ryan has a hard-on for cutting anyway, so this makes sense to me. Now that the AHCA is dead, Ryan would have to make more cuts to medicare to offset their tax reform initiatives.

Let me know if you guys think the logic or the premises of any of this fails. But I believe tax reform just got harder, even though for the GOP base it's a simpler issue that can rally the base together like it has in the past. But because of reconciliation rules, and because they'd be forced to make equal spending cuts, it gets more complex (just like health care did).

This also demonstrates just why Paul Ryan wanted the CBO to use dynamic scoring over the past few years. Dynamic scoring from the CBO would allow them to make the argument that cutting taxes would NOT decrease revenue and create a deficit, because dynamic scoring says that tax cuts actually increase revenue through supply-side magic fairy dust.

The last point of the bryd rule states you cannot change social security to pass under reconciliation.

Reconciliation generally involves legislation that changes the Federal budget deficit (or conceivably, the surplus). The "Byrd Rule" (2 U.S.C. § 644) was adopted in 1985 and amended in 1990 to outline which provisions reconciliation can and cannot be used for. The Byrd Rule defines a provision to be "extraneous" and therefore ineligible for reconciliation in six cases:

if it does not produce a change in outlays or revenues;
if it produces an outlay increase or revenue decrease when the instructed committee is not in compliance with its instructions;
if it is outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted the title or provision for inclusion in the reconciliation measure;
if it produces a change in outlays or revenues which is merely incidental to the non-budgetary components of the provision;
if it would increase the deficit for a fiscal year beyond those covered by the reconciliation measure, though the provisions in question may receive an exception if they in total in a Title of the measure net to a reduction in the deficit; and
if it recommends changes in Social Security.

 

[Zonar]

So eloquent, our president. He really makes us look great

Spoiler

/s

Are there any good articles like this one about Obama and the ACA? Would love to read about his speeches and the reactions/thought processes in the room

Or even better, good books?

Sorry for the late post but I recommend this book. zIt's a VERY log read but really informative.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Well, let's see:

1. Lost his first Executive Order in court because it was plainly illegal
2. Didn't tell any of the affected departments what he was doing.
3. Immediately and deliberately alienated three quarters of the public
4. Lost his revised executive order in court because it was effectively the same.
5. Spent hundreds of millions of dollars on him and his family golfing and promoting the Trump brand.
6. Alienated world leaders
5. Four members of his staff fired or quit because of Russian ties
7. Currently the subject of a federal investigation regarding Russian collusion over the election
8. Likely a subject in a federal investigation of Deutschebank
9. His attorney general has had to recuse himself
10. The congressional investigation may be blown up by Trump leaks and cronyism.
11. Lost and permanently screwed the single biggest legislative effort by the Republicans through ignorance and horrific negotiations
12. Established himself as the least popular elected president ever
13. Started campaigning for 2020 - before enacting a single meaningful policy.
14. Accused the former president and the united kingdom of spying on him.


Yes. Don't discount these incredible opening moves.

You just don't understand 45D Chess.

 

[greepoman]

You just don't understand 45D Chess.

The strangest part of his "strategy" was that he basically emboldened factions of the GOP because the FC torpedoed the legislation with virtually no consequences. In the end he ended up only blaming Democrats by name. So the FC or any other faction of the GOP sees that Donny boy really is a paper tiger and will be more likely to do similar things in the future.

 

[CHC]

In a weird way I have to say that reading this article makes me so much less.... scared of the future. Even something that the GOP can more-or-less come together on (needing major healthcare reform), he absolutely bungled so badly.

Reading this....

"That was the biggest mistake the president could have made," one Freedom Caucus member told me. "Mark desperately wanted to get to yes, and Trump made it impossible for him. If he flipped after that he would look incredibly weak."

.... in particular, really, just inspires so much confidence that he can and will fuck up almost anything because of his colossal ego. It's nice knowing that for as long as he is in office, his legacy will be one of failure after failure.

 

[jiggle]

Let`s not get too optimistic here
There are still 7+ years left

 

[Beer Monkey]

Let`s not get too optimistic here
There are still 7+ years left

He won't make four.

 

[hpkomic]

He won't make four.

He wasn't suppossed to get four either, by all logic.

 

[Shoeless]

In other words Trump is Columbo.

This makes me wish Columbo were real and ran for president. I'd vote Columbo into office, just to watch him deal with the Russian government, end the meeting, walk away chewing on his cigar only to turn around and say "Oh, and one more thing..."

 

[Not]

He won't make four.

For the first time in a long time this might actually be true

 

[danthefan]

He won't make four.

He won't be the nominee
He won't win the election
He won't finish his term

 

[theWB27]

Let`s not get too optimistic here
There are still 7+ years left

These posts will forever be worthless

 

[draetenth]

He won't be the nominee
He won't win the election
He won't finish his term

At the time, he didn't have quite the list of failures as president under his name... Repealing Obamacare was one of the big things he campaigned about...

 

[Evil Monkey DTT]

He won't be the nominee
He won't win the election
He won't finish his term

We won't let him finish.

 

[Ac30]

But it all requires Democrats now. The freedom caucus isn't going to go along with most tax reform bills and neither will Democrats if it's another hand out to the rich

Aren't Republicans for tax breaks across the board though?

 

[DUFFMCWALIN]

Sorry for the late post but I recommend this book. zIt's a VERY log read but really informative.

Thank you for this. This is the next Kindle book I'm reading.

 

[Fat4all]

"I am bleeding.

Making me the victor!"

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

He won't be the nominee
He won't win the election
He won't finish his term

He won't repeal Obamacare....

 

[BrutishMrFish]

In other words Trump is Columbo.

But Columbo acted dumb on purpose, but Trump really is dumb. When things go his way, it's generally not because he planned it that way. He's Mr. Magoo.

 

[PataHikari]

Aren't Republicans for tax breaks across the board though?

The issue is that the Freedom Caucus will demand absolutely insane tax cuts. So "moderate" Republicans will be scared off when they demand rich people's taxes be abolished and poor pepoles be quintupled or something like that.