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[Thunder Monkey]

Sony have got to be pretty pleased with this. Not so long back it looked like they might be down for the count.

I doubt they're all that pleased.

They went from owning the market to holding Microsofts hat.

I don't care how mediocre they're doing now compared to the failure it started as... I just can't imagine it feeling too good.

I'll try to help the Japanese home console market:

After 181 weeks:
PS2 - 11.9M
WII - 10.3M

After 184 weeks:
GCN - 3.7M
PS3 - 5.1M

After 232 weeks:
XBX - 0.5M
360 - 1.3M

Last-gen - 16.1M
Current-gen - 16.7M


The power of launch-aligned.

Spoiler

Nevermind the 2.8 million Dreamcast sold.

Not nearly as bleak as I thought.

Still not sure if the entire market will hit the PS2 alone.

 

[lsslave]

The majority of defective consoles are refurbished and resold. Refurbished/used consoles aren't tracked in the NPD numbers.

True, I could have considered that. That would make up for at least half the numbers of "dead" systems that would arise.

I just don't see how, economically, this number can be used for anything really. I know with vehicles you will get dealerships that actually brag about how many are "still on the road" because the "in use" numbers actually stand for more. I was just wondering why companies didn't even attempt that with gaming, but eh, it just caused a guy with a lot of pent up frustration to attack.

 

[BritBloke916]

Sony have got to be pretty pleased with this. Not so long back it looked like they might be down for the count.

No kidding. Everyone's always saying stuff like "why do you care about the sales of some huge faceless multinational company?", and they have a point, but back then... quite frankly I was worried that my GTAIV PS3 bundle was in serious danger of turning into the next Dreamcast. You bet I'm happy to see strong sales, not because I care about Sony's share price, but because it guarantees the availability of games.

 

[Evlar]

I'll try to help the Japanese home console market:

After 181 weeks:
PS2 - 11.9M
WII - 10.3M

After 184 weeks:
GCN - 3.7M
PS3 - 5.1M

After 232 weeks:
XBX - 0.5M
360 - 1.3M

Last-gen - 16.1M
Current-gen - 16.7M


The power of launch-aligned.

Spoiler

Nevermind the 2.8 million Dreamcast sold.

I'd be interested to see the portables tossed into the mix.

 

[Mr_Brit]

"Oh, what's that?"
"Right, it's just another GAF HD console sales thread"
"I'll just set this up here and....."

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

True, I could have considered that. That would make up for at least half the numbers of "dead" systems that would arise.

I just don't see how, economically, this number can be used for anything really. I know with vehicles you will get dealerships that actually brag about how many are "still on the road" because the "in use" numbers actually stand for more. I was just wondering why companies didn't even attempt that with gaming, but eh, it just caused a guy with a lot of pent up frustration to attack.

I assure you, my frustration is not pent-up in any way, shape, or form.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I'd be interested to see the portables tossed into the mix.

Easy enough.

Add 16.5 million GBA's to the last gen total, and 40 million DS/PSP to this gen.

 

[Mrbob]

Both Move and Natal will bomb, so I guess it doesn't really matter.

One can hope. If one of them truly succeed, god help us all.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

One can hope. If one of them truly succeed, god help us all.

I see Move being the more successful of the two.

They won't see huge popularity on either console until they launch new motion only consoles in 2011-2012.

 

[woodypop]

And T-rex CAN fly

It's early yet, but this made my day.

 

[Evlar]

Easy enough.

Add 16.5 million GBA's to the last gen total, and 40 million DS/PSP to this gen.

There you go.

The striking thing about Japan is the relative shift to portables from rough parity to home consoles last generation to more than doubling home consoles this generation. Amidst all the noise about DS and PSP, though, it is useful to note that the home console market didn't shrink- not on the hardware side, at least.

 

[SmokyDave]

Well, PSP is...

I will drag you outside by your pubic hair and slap you about if you badmouth the PSP. It's a touchy subject.

I doubt they're all that pleased.

They went from owning the market to holding Microsofts hat.

I don't care how mediocre they're doing now compared to the failure it started as... I just can't imagine it feeling too good.

You might be right but things are getting better for them, even if only marginally.

No kidding. Everyone's always saying stuff like "why do you care about the sales of some huge faceless multinational company?", and they have a point, but back then... quite frankly I was worried that my GTAIV PS3 bundle was in serious danger of turning into the next Dreamcast. You bet I'm happy to see strong sales, not because I care about Sony's share price, but because it guarantees the availability of games.

Precisely. That and the fact that competition in the HD space is very healthy for us consumers.

 

[Mrbob]

They won't see huge popularity on either console until they launch new motion only consoles in 2011-2012.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

There you go.

The striking thing about Japan is the relative shift to portables from rough parity to home consoles last generation to more than doubling home consoles this generation. Amidst all the noise about DS and PSP, though, it is useful to note that the home console market didn't shrink- not on the hardware side, at least.

The home console market at this point in time last gen was actually a little bigger. The launch aligned stuff is cool... but a bit of a lie.

The PS2 launched first last time, the 360 first this time. That skews the market heavily in last gens favor. The last gen ended at about 28 million units. I kind of doubt this gen clears 20 million.

The home console market is lower this gen then last, and I doubt it lasts a fraction of the time either. The big thing this gen is definitely the explosion of the handheld market.

http://i43.tinypic.com/91chef.jpg[img][/QUOTE]
Search your feelings. You know it to be true.

[QUOTE=SmokyDave]You might be right but things are getting better for them, even if only marginally.[/QUOTE]
Definitely. Hell the last few months of last year had them selling their total yearly amounts prior.

That is a heck of a turnaround. Just... probably not what the execs expected going into this gen.

 

[Road]

Not nearly as bleak as I thought.

Still not sure if the entire market will hit the PS2 alone.

They might even match the PS2 (~22 million), but, yeah, definitely not the whole PS2+GCN+XBX+DC (~29 million).

 

[Thunder Monkey]

They might even match the PS2 (~22 million), but, yeah, definitely not the whole PS2+GCN+XBX+DC (~29 million).

We will see.

I don't see them getting any farther then 21 million units. Not with how slow it's growing this year.

 

[ymmv]

What's the 360's usual yearly number? 10.5m seems rather low.

It isn't, MS has yet to sell more than 10 million 360s in a year.

 

[Y2Kev]

:lol :lol

 

[Firewire]

So awesome! :lol

 

[Karma]

It isn't, MS has yet to sell more than 10 million 360s in a year.

They shipped 10.8 Million in 2008 and 10.2 Million last year.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Yep, that 7.5 millionish unit headstart MS had has been carved down to a lean, mean 5 millionish after just four years. In 2018, finally, the craven bastard 360 shall be slain.

You are forgetting that the 360 was outselling it for most of those four years. Its well past it in Japan, and its probably past it now in the PAL territories. The Butler ads and the software will do some of the work in the US. If a slim 360 doesn't launch this year, I think that the PS3 will have easilly outsold the 360 by the time Sony report their fiscal sales in 2012, which would be pretty amazing given how Sony fucked things up at the start of this generation, the media ripped it out of them for it, their online service took ages to get going well and the software came slowly.

I honestly think that if that happened to Microsoft or Nintendo, they would be in a much worse off position than Sony are in now. Part of it is brand loyalty of course, but Sony can't afford to fuck up the beginning of the PS4 generation.

 

[JoeBoy101]

PC is not smug and superior enough.

Look at that Bowler on his head. Nah, I think they nailed it.

 

[Revolver]

I honestly think that if that happened to Microsoft or Nintendo, they would be in a much worse off position than Sony are in now. Part of it is brand loyalty of course, but Sony can't afford to fuck up the beginning of the PS4 generation.

Yeah, I find it amazing how they're still in the running. Especially after spending so much time playing catch up with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the foot.

 

[charlequin]

This is really interesting because that Natal rumor that has the 360 entry pricepoint going up could really...change the second derivative of their growth curves...why can't I think of a better way to express that...

College has ruined you.

I think there are shortages, but not to the point where a consumer couldn't find one. I don't see a person a going to ONE store not seeing a PS3 then going "fuck it, give me an Xbox" ... especially with a $200-300 purchase. But then again I'm giving the average consumer the benefit of the doubt.

Historically speaking, different game consoles are not substitutiary goods. A shortage can (and probably did) lower PS3 totals, but it almost certainly did not raise 360 totals by much, if anything -- in general, the only time someone would ever make a flop like that is if they had to get a console (say, in order to play a new PS360 title that convinced them to "jump in"), had only just barely decided on a PS3, and decided getting a 360 was easier than going to a second store. There are going to be very few customers like that.

Microsoft's market share is not in a good shape at all , no doubt about that.

In what sense, really?

Let's say PS3 outsells 360 by 4 million every year from now on. That puts Sony something like 8 million up on Microsoft at the end of the generation (I'm assuming 2012 estimates are accurate here.) Which means Microsoft's marketshare relative to Sony then is really at worst about as bad as Sony's is relative to Microsoft's now.

Do you think Sony's marketshare now is bad? Because I think it's pretty good, way better than I expected in 2006 and way better than it would be without a very serious and strong price-cutting and relaunch effort by Sony. Ignore the horse-race aspect where Microsoft's "hurting" because their market share numbers decreased and it's hard to see almost any meaningful change to Microsoft's business as a result of this trend. (Sony already snagged the big benefit of re-cementing software support by having their system resurge, so I don't think passing or not passing 360 will do much to meaningfully change their business from here on out either.)

 

[Tutomos]

Wii's market share will go down after the Move and Natal release. I know this is not a popular prediction. Wii is still going to be number one, but their market share will shrink.

 

[Pooya]

In what sense, really?

360 lead is diminishing very very fast, just compare it to the last year, looks like they've reached global saturation alreadylol ).

 

[Taurus]

Wii's market share will go down after the Move and Natal release. I know this is not a popular prediction. Wii is still going to be number one, but their market share will shrink.

What do you think will happen when Nintendo decides to go $149? Hell, they might even do it for the holidays just for shits and giggles. That would stomp over any hype Move/Natal had.

 

[andycapps]

Wii's market share will go down after the Move and Natal release. I know this is not a popular prediction. Wii is still going to be number one, but their market share will shrink.

I'm no Wii fanboy at all, but I think you've got to be smoking crack if you think Move and Natal will have much to do with their market share decreasing. If anything, their market share may decrease if people get tired of the graphics and just want something new and better.

 

[charlequin]

Wii's market share will go down after the Move and Natal release. I know this is not a popular prediction. Wii is still going to be number one, but their market share will shrink.

Wii's market share is already shrinking as it doesn't sell as well monthly as a percentage of its current market share as PS3 and 360 collectively do to theirs. I agree that Natal and Move will not hurt the PS3 and 360 businesses so badly that this trend reverses itself. :lol

 

[Taurus]

If this is just Q1, then what are the current gen total market share numbers?

 

[KernelPanic]

I'm pretty sure MS has something planned (Slim + Natal).

Everytime Sony has gained any sort of momentum they've managed to kill it.

 

[Davidion]

:lol Segata owns the thread.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Wii's market share is already shrinking as it doesn't sell as well monthly as a percentage of its current market share as PS3 and 360 collectively do to theirs. I agree that Natal and Move will not hurt the PS3 and 360 businesses so badly that this trend reverses itself. :lol

Neither do I.

I just think he be fooling himself thinking it will speed the process.

 

[Vinci]

I'm pretty sure MS has something planned (Slim + Natal).

Everytime Sony has gained any sort of momentum they've managed to kill it.

...

Isn't the Slim the first genuine thing that gave them momentum this console generation? [Let's leave the poor PSP Go out of this!]

 

[Scythesurge]

:lol Perfect

 

[CrayzeeCarl]

How Much do Video Games Matter When Buying a Console? | Nielsen Wire

It sucks that I work for Nielsen and don't get to deal with the Entertainment division. It's much more interesting than Pringles and laundry detergent. :/

And what's with everyone saying that the slim was not important, it was the price cut? The slim made the price cut possible! No slim, no price cut!

 

[KernelPanic]

...

Isn't the Slim the first genuine thing that gave them momentum this console generation? [Let's leave the poor PSP Go out of this!]

I remember Sony doing pretty well (was it due to MGS4 >) until the $199 drop happened.

Of course Slim is much bigger but I think 360 Slim will tip the scales the other way.

Who knows about Natal but they're going to market it like crazy this holiday season.

 

[andycapps]

I remember Sony doing pretty well (was it due to MGS4 >) until the $199 drop happened.

Of course Slim is much bigger but I think 360 Slim will tip the scales the other way.

Who knows about Natal but they're going to market it like crazy this holiday season.

Other than Reach what titles does 360 coming out that will boost sales? And most people that want Reach will have probably already gotten the console for Halo 3 or Gears 1 or 2.

Sony's sales of the slim were boosted because of the price and new form factor but because some real great pieces of software came out around that time.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

this is even true for the ds, where it goes without saying that 80%+ of the original model owners have upgraded.

I don't think this is true. Certainly, a lot of people have upgraded, but I doubt the number is even close to 80%. I'm still on my launch phat, and virtually every single person I know IRL still plays on a launch DS as well. I would be pretty surprised if the number of people who have upgraded is much over 50%.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I don't think this is true. Certainly, a lot of people have upgraded, but I doubt the number is even close to 80%. I'm still on my launch phat, and virtually every single person I know IRL still plays on a launch DS as well. I would be pretty surprised if the number of people who have upgraded is much over 50%.

I'd be surprised at any more then 10% actually.

I still game on my phatty.

 

[Monty Mole]

This is the same Strategy Analytics that said PS3 will sell 127m units...
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-will-win-console-battle-says-strategy-analytics/

 

[Vinci]

I remember Sony doing pretty well (was it due to MGS4 >) until the $199 drop happened.

Of course Slim is much bigger but I think 360 Slim will tip the scales the other way.

Who knows about Natal but they're going to market it like crazy this holiday season.

I don't think the PS3 was ever really doing 'well' until the Slim (and the accompanying relaunch occurred).

 

[Son of Godzilla]

How Much do Video Games Matter When Buying a Console? | Nielsen Wire

Except a month in any direction of prospective buyers is ignoring the systems sold for that one game previously. Why would anyone who was going to buy a PS3 for GoW3 do it in March when if they had done it in November they would have gotten hundreds of dollars in deals alongside it.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I don't think the PS3 was ever really doing 'well' until the Slim (and the accompanying relaunch occurred).

And even that version of "well" isn't exactly doing great.

 

[KittyKittyBangBang]

I think the PS3 global market share jump can be attributed to one thing:

 

[Forsete]

Good for Sony. Now keep pumping out those games and you'll do even better.

Edit: :lol Kevin Butler, VP of Superior Sales. Please be at E3.

 

[Vinci]

And even that version of "well" isn't exactly doing great.

Well no, but it was certainly a massive uptick from what they were doing. And it's definitely bought them some mindshare that they didn't have before. Anecdotally, I see far more interest and far more mention of the PS3 nowadays among regular folks than I ever did prior to the Slim.

It got them into the game.

Sadly, it got them into the game after the other two companies had been hitting homeruns and doubles for the last several innings.

 

[LosDaddie]

Makes perfect sense. The PS3 has been on fire for a while now and, really, the x360 should be at least $50 cheaper if MS wants to outsell the PS3. Even then it might not matter since the Sony brand is stronger worldwide.

Yep, that 7.5 millionish unit headstart MS had has been carved down to a lean, mean 5 millionish after just four years. In 2018, finally, the craven bastard 360 shall be slain.

oh fuck :lol

 

[Windom Earle]

You are forgetting that the 360 was outselling it for most of those four years. Its well past it in Japan, and its probably past it now in the PAL territories.

It is. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=395617

 

[Taurus]

If this is just Q1, then what are the current gen total market share numbers?

Question still unanswered, anyone?