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Rumor: Next Xbox To Feature Ray Tracing, 1TB NVMe SSD Storage; DevKit To Release After GDC 2019

Pimpbaa

Member
Of course streaming will be used but it won't be critical to performance if you have a buffer that its constantly being updated in the background.

Not if the hard drive can't keep that buffer filled.

You are also wrong about last gen, PS360 relied on streaming much more heavily, gta 5 is prime example of that where they used both the hdd and disc drive to aid streaming.

Wrong about what? Streaming has been important since the ps2 and I already mentioned GTA 5. You can see slow texture streaming on games made for current gen like the last 2 Assassins Creed games, RDR2, almost any UE based game (not to mention ridiculous load times). And 8GB was considered a lot when current gen consoles launched. Next gen developers would have to choose between hoping gamers are patient enough to wait for ridiculous load times due to trying to stuff everything in 32GB or trying to stream assets made for 4k from a shitty laptop hard drive. A flash ram cache would help but only if developers have direct access to that. A setup like a hybrid drive or optane like solution wouldn't be ideal because the game would perform like shit until the system "learns" what data to put in the cache.
 

Imtjnotu

Member
If I can buy a 1 TB NVMe SSD for 60 bucks within a calendar year from now I’ll eat my fucking microwave
Plus you can't have the cost of a console have a component be1/5th the cost just for storage. Especially when you can use external drives
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I would love to see them include SSDs in the next-gen consoles, and recoup some of that cost due to lighter weight/size production and shipping.

And for mechanical hard drives, you can still use USB expansion. Those SSDs will also help the USB mechanical drives as a cashing solution to speed that up I would think.
 
I would love to see them include SSDs in the next-gen consoles, and recoup some of that cost due to lighter weight/size production and shipping.

And for mechanical hard drives, you can still use USB expansion. Those SSDs will also help the USB mechanical drives as a cashing solution to speed that up I would think.

1TB is the minimum storage needed for next gen and 2TB is the next step up from there. There is no way they use SSDs at an affordable price, because they need to be able to sell upgraded storage without doubling the price of the console.

My guess is a 16-32GB cache of flash storage on the motherboard, paired with an HDD. This will allow them to increase storage sizes with minimal cost, while getting a boost in performance.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
1TB is the minimum storage needed for next gen and 2TB is the next step up from there. There is no way they use SSDs at an affordable price, because they need to be able to sell upgraded storage without doubling the price of the console.

My guess is a 16-32GB cache of flash storage on the motherboard, paired with an HDD. This will allow them to increase storage sizes with minimal cost, while getting a boost in performance.

The SSD drive port could still be upgradable for the consumer, but I see what you were saying for their own sku's.
 

SonGoku

Member
Not if the hard drive can't keep that buffer filled.
If you have a big buffer thats constantly being updated on the background before its even needed, it wouldn't matter because you are not depending on streaming performance thats the difference between a memory limited setup and one that's not
Wrong about what?
About last and current gen consoles relying on streaming to the same extent.
Streaming has been important since the ps2 and I already mentioned GTA 5.
So you should know then PS2 and PS3 relied on streaming much more heavily than current gen, they were much more aggressive with streaming due to memory limitations
You can see slow texture streaming on games made for current gen like the last 2 Assassins Creed games, RDR2, almost any UE based game (not to mention ridiculous load times).
1.) Consoles are not even maxing the HDD speed due to shitty cpus
2.) They already maxed on memory and resorting to streaming tricks to overcome memory limitations. They only have 5GB TOTAL FOR BOTH GPU and CPU tasks
. And 8GB was considered a lot when current gen consoles launched.
And so is 24GB and 32GB apparently
A flash ram cache would help but only if developers have direct access to that. A setup like a hybrid drive or optane like solution
I explained this in my previous post the hybrid setup its not one hybrid drive but two separate drives
The cache whether its nvram or plain SSD would be around 100 to 256GB, the first time you boot the game all streaming assets will be "installed" on the cache so it will be as if its running from a SSD albeit with longer initial load times the first time streaming assets install onto the cache
 
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SonGoku

Member
They will drop HDD 1st chance they get & next gen is that chance
NVMe will let them make smaller consoles this is a 512GB & 1TB NVMe
Maybe for a slim or mid gen revision, prices are just no there for next gen launch.
They need to sport 1TB minimum for the entry model and the only way to meet that requirement in 2020 will be with a HDD, 1TB might be too expensive even for late 2020.

The best compromise is a Big.little setup with 2 drives:
One big HDD and a 256GB SSD/NVMe for streaming assets. As prices drop they can ship future revisions with SSD/NVMe only

Is NVMe even projected to become as affordable as SSDs in the next 5 years? wouldn't the next logical step be a SSD?
1TB is the minimum storage needed for next gen and 2TB is the next step up from there. There is no way they use SSDs at an affordable price, because they need to be able to sell upgraded storage without doubling the price of the console.

My guess is a 16-32GB cache of flash storage on the motherboard, paired with an HDD. This will allow them to increase storage sizes with minimal cost, while getting a boost in performance.
Agree with your reasoning but i think a 256GB SSD/NVMe might be cheap enough to include in addition to the HDD.
 
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Pimpbaa

Member
I explained this in my previous post the hybrid setup its not one hybrid drive but two separate drives
The cache whether its nvram or plain SSD would be around 100 to 256GB, the first time you boot the game all streaming assets will be "installed" on the cache so it will be as if its running from a SSD albeit with longer initial load times the first time streaming assets install onto the cache

This I agree with. It would be ideal regardless of how much ram they go with. And NVMe SSDs are coming down in price (starting to see a lot of small slower NVMe SSDs in cheap laptops).
 

MilkyJoe

Member
jeuxvideo, a respected gaming site, spoke today in regards to this rumor


http://www.jeuxvideo.com/news/10065...eux-prochaines-xbox-devoilees-a-l-e3-2019.htm

Lockheart = 4 tflops?

l7UMLEB.gif


Sounds like crap to me
 

MilkyJoe

Member
Makes sense if it's a 1080p machine. Look at S and X, a 4x difference in GPU to scale games from "1080p" to "4K", same idea here it seems...

That'd be a really low count for 20/21 release. And why build a console for a TV resolution that is pretty hard to buy even now. Biggest UK TV seller has 268 4K tv models to choose from and 27 1080p models, of which only 14 are available in store.

If Lockheart is the base model and Anaconda is the X equivalent, and Sony's base comes in at say 6 or 8 tflops, around the same price, they'd be in exactly the same position as they were at the beginning of this gen. For this alone I am not buying it.
 

ZywyPL

Banned
I call BS - 1TB SSD is still even more expensive than entire consoles, and that's not going to change anytime soon. SSHD on the other hand, very possible, and I expect the "professional" media to not to know the difference.
 

Leonidas

Member
That'd be a really low count for 20/21 release.

It's not if it's a 1080p box, just look at the S and X. There is a 4x difference there. If the high end machine is targeting native 4K then it will be more than enough for 1080p.

And why build a console for a TV resolution that is pretty hard to buy even now.

Some people don't care that much about resolution, 1080p still looks okay on a 4K screen to me, I'd imagine casuals(bulk of consumers) won't care as long as they can play their games.

If Lockheart is the base model and Anaconda is the X equivalent, and Sony's base comes in at say 6 or 8 tflops, around the same price, they'd be in exactly the same position as they were at the beginning of this gen.

They'd only be in the same position again in terms of power if Sony designed a 6Tflop 1080p machine and if these rumored specs are true.
If Sony only comes out with lets say a 10 Tflop machine targeting 4K and these rumors are true then MS will have both a cheaper machine and the most powerful console.
 
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MilkyJoe

Member
It's not if it's a 1080p box, just look at the S and X. There is a 4x difference there. If the high end machine is targeting native 4K then it will be more than enough for 1080p.



Some people don't care that much about resolution, 1080p still looks okay on a 4K screen to me, I'd imagine casuals won't care as long as they can play their games.



They'd only be in the same position again in terms of power if Sony designed a 6Tflop 1080p machine and that just doesn't seem very likely at all.

1080p is on it's way out, to answer all three points. Like out out.

Unless they are targeting an audience that will be playing exclusively on TVs for the kitchen or children's bedrooms, then I'd be amazed if they release consoles with a 1080p max output, especially when the X and Pro already exist with greater than 4tflop GPUs
 

MilkyJoe

Member
Insufficient answer to my three points.

OK point 2, 1080p games don't look that great on a 4K screen. See Ace combat 7. And why would they just target 1080p and not 1400p which looks a whole lot better? Especially when the 6tf in the X is already there.
 
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Leonidas

Member
OK point 2, 1080p games don't look that great on a 4K screen. See Ace combat 7. And why would they just target 1080p and not 1400p which looks a whole lot better? Especially when the 6tf in the X is already there.

AC7 looks fine at 1080p, it's only disappointing because people spent $400+ on a machine that was supposed to run them at higher than 1080p. In that sense it is disappointing, but it doesn't look bad, it just looks okay, and some people even would say it looks good/great.

And why would they just target 1080p and not 1400p which looks a whole lot better?

Because that's what the high end machine is for, for the people who care about the best console experience. Most people don't give a shit about resolution.
 

MilkyJoe

Member
AC7 looks fine at 1080p, it's only disappointing because people spent $400+ on a machine that was supposed to run them at higher than 1080p. In that sense it is disappointing, but it doesn't look bad, it just looks okay, and some people even would say it looks good/great.


Because that's what the high end machine is for, for the people who care about the best console experience. Most people don't give a shit about resolution.

You said it yourself, it looks OK. OK is not particularly great.

It'l be 2020/21. That's like PS4 targeting a max resolution of 720p at the start of this gen. We are in the time of 4K screens, whistle all you like PS5 and XB2, base or not, are not going to target a max 1080p resolution.

The only way this is going to be even remotely a thing is if the Anaconda is the base model and the Lockheart is some mega budget model for a quarter of the price or something.
 
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McHuj

Member
Once again consumer/retail cost is not the same as cost to a console manufacturer and the price today is not what it will be in 18 months.

My prediction is that retail prices for SSDs will be under $75/GB in 2020, whole sale prices for memory should be less the half of that
 
My bet would be on a hybrid drive, caching a games files that are needed for fast access to a smaller SSD sectionmaybe 256GB or 128GB, getting almost SSD like times or at least closer but keeping cost down.
 

onQ123

Member
So what I take from this is that Lockhart & Maverick will be discless small consoles & Anaconda will be the only traditional console with a Blu-ray drive.
 

onQ123

Member
I call BS - 1TB SSD is still even more expensive than entire consoles, and that's not going to change anytime soon. SSHD on the other hand, very possible, and I expect the "professional" media to not to know the difference.


From the last page


They will drop HDD 1st chance they get & next gen is that chance


NVMe will let them make smaller consoles this is a 512GB & 1TB NVMe

ugdzLoRcf5VqbTdm.jpg


Samsung_512GB_BGA_NVMe_SSD_2.jpg


https://www.samsung.com/semiconduct...hip/product-brief-samsung-pm971-bga-nvme-ssd/


Toshiba-BG4-780x405.jpg



https://basic-tutorials.de/en/ces-2019-toshiba-bg4-saves-1-tb-on-thumb-sized-ssd/

At the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in 2019, Toshiba unveiled the company’s fourth NVMe SSD. The thumb-sized SSD is twice the capacity of its 1TB predecessor and has doubled the number of PCIe lanes. The SSD was developed for tablets and notebooks in the low and medium price segment.

The SSD is available as a plug-in module in M.2-2230 format or as a soldered BGA version. Toshiba has arranged the controller and the flash memory chips on top of each other in the case in order to implement the small form factor with high capacity at the same time. The range extends from 128 GByte to 1 TB capacity.

The speed of the Toshiba BG4 is at a maximum sequential read rate of 2.25 GByte/s and a maximum write speed of 1.7 GByte/s. The maximum read rate of the Toshiba BG4 is 2.25 GByte/s and the maximum write speed is 1.7 GByte/s. The Toshiba BG4 can be used with a wide range of memory devices. It can be assumed that with larger data volumes, the speed drops significantly as soon as the SLC buffer is filled and the normal TLC memory must be used. Since the SSD does not have a DRAM cache, the technique called ‘host memory buffer’ is used instead, which stores the mapping table in the working memory.

Toshiba partners are already receiving initial samples of the SSD. The general availability starts in the second quarter. Toshiba has not yet released the price of the SSD, but it is expected to be on a par with traditional SATA SDDs. One of the partners already getting the SSDs is Lenovo, who are using the SSD as a second drive on some Thinkpads as an alternative to the LTE modem.
At the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in 2019, Toshiba unveiled the company’s fourth NVMe SSD. The thumb-sized SSD is twice the capacity of its 1TB predecessor and has doubled the number of PCIe lanes. The SSD was developed for tablets and notebooks in the low and medium price segment.

The SSD is available as a plug-in module in M.2-2230 format or as a soldered BGA version. Toshiba has arranged the controller and the flash memory chips on top of each other in the case in order to implement the small form factor with high capacity at the same time. The range extends from 128 GByte to 1 TB capacity.

The speed of the Toshiba BG4 is at a maximum sequential read rate of 2.25 GByte/s and a maximum write speed of 1.7 GByte/s. The maximum read rate of the Toshiba BG4 is 2.25 GByte/s and the maximum write speed is 1.7 GByte/s. The Toshiba BG4 can be used with a wide range of memory devices. It can be assumed that with larger data volumes, the speed drops significantly as soon as the SLC buffer is filled and the normal TLC memory must be used. Since the SSD does not have a DRAM cache, the technique called ‘host memory buffer’ is used instead, which stores the mapping table in the working memory.

Toshiba partners are already receiving initial samples of the SSD. The general availability starts in the second quarter. Toshiba has not yet released the price of the SSD, but it is expected to be on a par with traditional SATA SDDs. One of the partners already getting the SSDs is Lenovo, who are using the SSD as a second drive on some Thinkpads as an alternative to the LTE modem.
 
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GermanZepp

Member
New rumor:

A new rumor published by JeuxVideo, one of the best-known French media, has published the supposed technical data of the new models of Xbox, which would be presented at E3 this year.

As it has been rumored, Microsoft will not debut a single model of Xbox but two, with key names Lockhart and Anaconda. The first would be a more affordable version, without optical disc reader and designed for streaming or downloadable games. Anaconda would be a console with the technical jump of the generation to run the games with all the graphical improvements. Both would use SSDs for fast loading times.

Xbox Lockhart

CPU: customized 8 cores - Zen 2 of 16 threads
GPU: customized NAVI with 4+ Teraflops
RAM: 12GB of GDDR6 memory
Storage: 1TB NVMe 1 + GB / s SSD

Xbox Anaconda

CPU: customized 8 cores - Zen 2 of 16 threads
GPU: customized NAVI with 12+ Teraflops
RAM: 16GB of GDDR6 memory
Storage: 1TB NVMe 1 + GB / s SSD

Anaconda with a price of 500 euros
While Lockhart could run games -downloads- at 1080p resolution, Anaconda would do it at 4K resolution. Yes, the media says that these data are still susceptible to be changed, and the price of Anaconda would be similar to the one debuted Xbox One X, about 500 dollars / euros. There is no mention of Lockhart's price, but it should be quite inferior.

Halo Infinite will be a launch game for these machines scheduled for the end of 2020, but will also reach the Xbox One consoles, which is where it is currently announced.
 

Leonidas

Member
We are in the time of 4K screens

And?
It's really not that hard to imagine, just think of the S. It's games target 1080p(at best) but is hooked up to many 4K screens and is a great 4K device(blu-ray, multi-media, etc.) with "1080p" games up-scaled still looking good enough on a 4K screen.

The only way this is going to be even remotely a thing is if the Anaconda is the base model and the Lockheart is some mega budget model for a quarter of the price or something.

That'd be dumb. S is 1/4 the GPU power of X at 1/2 the cost. PS4 is 1/2 the GPU power of Pro and is only 25% cheaper... I'd expect the price of such a console to be anywhere between 25% to 50% cheaper.
 
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MilkyJoe

Member
And?
It's really not that hard to imagine, just think of the S. It's games target 1080p(at best) but is hooked up to many 4K screens and is a great 4K device(blu-ray, multi-media, etc.) with "1080p" games up-scaled still looking good enough on a 4K screen.



That'd be dumb. S is 1/4 the GPU power of X at 1/2 the cost. PS4 is 1/2 the GPU power of Pro and is only 25% cheaper... I'd expect the price of such a console to be anywhere between 25% to 50% cheaper.

We're going to have to agree to disagree. The base models are not going to be weaker than the OneX. It's not going to happen, and they are not going to target defunct screen size in 2 years time. You can save this for future reference.
 

ZywyPL

Banned
Factually incorrect. 1 TB SSD costs 130 € here.

As far as I know, new consoles don't start at under 130 €.

Depends on the technology, TLC drives are dirty cheap, I agree, but SLC drives can still cost 'quite' a lot. Besides, even at 100-130$ they would still be too expensive for consoles - add another 100-110$ for UHD BD, another 100-120$ for AMD APU, and you're already at 400$, and where's place for the rest of the parts and assembling? IMHO next-gen consoles should be even equipped with 3.5" drives instead of 2.5", to save up even more on the drives, and/or provide even more disc space, 4TB preferably, and the 7200rpm would boost performance more than enough compared to laptop drives and their 5400rpm.
 

Leonidas

Member
It's not going to happen, and they are not going to target defunct screen size in 2 years time. You can save this for future reference.

Avatar bet me then.

Stipulations:
4Tflop next-gen Xbox will be just like the S("1080p" games with 4K media capabilities).
If the rumored console doesn't release then the bet is off.
 
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Elenchus

Banned
New rumor:

A new rumor published by JeuxVideo, one of the best-known French media, has published the supposed technical data of the new models of Xbox, which would be presented at E3 this year.

As it has been rumored, Microsoft will not debut a single model of Xbox but two, with key names Lockhart and Anaconda. The first would be a more affordable version, without optical disc reader and designed for streaming or downloadable games. Anaconda would be a console with the technical jump of the generation to run the games with all the graphical improvements. Both would use SSDs for fast loading times.

Xbox Lockhart

CPU: customized 8 cores - Zen 2 of 16 threads
GPU: customized NAVI with 4+ Teraflops
RAM: 12GB of GDDR6 memory
Storage: 1TB NVMe 1 + GB / s SSD

Xbox Anaconda

CPU: customized 8 cores - Zen 2 of 16 threads
GPU: customized NAVI with 12+ Teraflops
RAM: 16GB of GDDR6 memory
Storage: 1TB NVMe 1 + GB / s SSD

Anaconda with a price of 500 euros
While Lockhart could run games -downloads- at 1080p resolution, Anaconda would do it at 4K resolution. Yes, the media says that these data are still susceptible to be changed, and the price of Anaconda would be similar to the one debuted Xbox One X, about 500 dollars / euros. There is no mention of Lockhart's price, but it should be quite inferior.

Halo Infinite will be a launch game for these machines scheduled for the end of 2020, but will also reach the Xbox One consoles, which is where it is currently announced.

If Halo Infinite is the launch title and is a legit great game Xbox Two will fly off shelves regardless of specs. That’s the biggest part of the rumor.
 

ethomaz

Banned
We need to face the reality 12TFs ir around the highest top premium machine if MS will go with that path... so the base model should be way lower than that.

You will say I'm biased but the suppose Sony path with one strong machine as base is the best option imo...

And I don't believe we will have a mid-gen upgrade with 4x the power this generation because I don't believe 5nm or lower will come fast in less than 3 years after 7nm.

MS base at 4TFs will make developers go crazy and probably will hold the next generation development.
 
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joe_zazen

Member
.MS base at 4TFs will make developers go crazy and probably will hold the next generation development.

I’ll say it, it will ruin next gen. 4tf will be the baseline till 2027. It will make Nintendo very happy though.
 
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onQ123

Member
We need to face the reality 12TFs ir around the highest top premium machine if MS will go with that path... so the base model should be way lower than that.

You will say I'm biased but the suppose Sony path with one strong machine as base is the best option imo...

And I don't believe we will have a mid-gen upgrade with 4x the power this generation because I don't believe 5nm or lower will come fast in less than 3 years after 7nm.

MS base at 4TFs will make developers go crazy and probably will hold the next generation development.



I would say it would be better to have consoles that can reach all levels of the market but I think Xbox One & PS4 can cover that lower end market for a few more years
 

ethomaz

Banned
I would say it would be better to have consoles that can reach all levels of the market but I think Xbox One & PS4 can cover that lower end market for a few more years
Well opinion :) I think XB1 and PS4 are holding the market for some years already.

7nm took to longer to get ready and that delayed the new generation :(

We need a new fresh start.
 
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If Halo Infinite is the launch title and is a legit great game Xbox Two will fly off shelves regardless of specs. That’s the biggest part of the rumor.
Im not sure it makes sense though, Bonnie Ross just said like two days ago that Infinite is going to take longer than usual to make because they want to avoid crunch. Late 2020 gives them almost 2 years still, but why would she even say anything to set those expectations if it was coming out in 2020.
 
I think there will basically be 3 options -

Xcloud - available on switch, iPad etc. Best streaming service to date but still not perfect.

Xcloud console - streaming only. Core game logic and GPU compute runs locally to nearly eliminate any lag. Possibly sold as an all in one subscription. Graphics and resolution nearly identical to Nextbox

Nextbox - full next gen Xbox that plays everything locally as normal
 
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joe_zazen

Member
I think there will basically be 3 options -

Xcloud - available on switch, iPad etc. Best streaming service to date but still not perfect.

Xcloud console - streaming only. Core game logic and GPU compute runs locally to nearly eliminate any lag. Possibly sold as an all in one subscription.

Nextbox - full next gen Xbox that plays everything locally as normal

I think they want to leave consoles behind and have their games all streaming based, and this coming gen will be how they do it by replacing/converting their fanbase that wants concoles and physical hardware.

I am just not sure how they will muscle their way onto apple,and android devices. But getting it on Switch makes me think they might be able to do it.
 

ZywyPL

Banned
I’ll say it, it will ruin next gen. 4tf will be the baseline till 2027. It will make Nintendo very happy though.

>4TF for 1080p would be 3x as much as in base XB1 - imagine games looking three times better than Ryse, QB, Gears, FH, BF, TR etc. that's hell of a baseline if you ask me. That's almost as much as what most people have in their PC.
 

joe_zazen

Member
>4TF for 1080p would be 3x as much as in base XB1 - imagine games looking three times better than Ryse, QB, Gears, FH, BF, TR etc. that's hell of a baseline if you ask me. That's almost as much as what most people have in their PC.

Not as good a baseline as 12 TF, especially as we get far into the 2020s. And the power is not just used for pixels.

I dont think the market will care though. The most popular games are Battle Royales, minecraft, LoL, dota2...all of which look like crap and play fine with 150ms+ of total lag.
 
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>4TF for 1080p would be 3x as much as in base XB1 - imagine games looking three times better than Ryse, QB, Gears, FH, BF, TR etc. that's hell of a baseline if you ask me. That's almost as much as what most people have in their PC.

3x the previous generation performance baseline will be the smallest jump in power the industry has ever been held to.

It will be the equivalent of going from the Gamecube to the Wii. Everyone will be squinting their eyes at the next gen games asking themselves, "Is this better? I can't tell.."

I have to imagine we are missing something here or the rumor is false. Like this 4tf machine only plays a small subset of low fidelity games offline and all others require online and streaming. Otherwise... yikes.
 
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