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Speculation: Nextgen to be 30TFLOPs+?
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
CassidyIzABeast
Member
You'll get whatever the refresh of the Vega 56 chip is and like it.
Sony won't move without another process node shrink. 7nm Navi sounds reasonable to me in late 2019 or 2020.
But those tflop figures are obviously way off. Around 10TF is the best guess for what the PS5 will be packing, anything more than that is a bonus
But those tflop figures are obviously way off. Around 10TF is the best guess for what the PS5 will be packing, anything more than that is a bonus
bitbydeath
Member
It seemed to have not been posted/discussed here before.
Garrett Hawke
Member
10TF seems pretty generous, maybe plausible for 2020 release.
Herp Derpington
Member
I thought 8GB of DDR5 was fortunate timing? If we're shocked by anything it'll be because of something similar.
XB1X is 6 TFlops.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
Historical data for AMD's biggest / most powerful single GPU chips:
Vega 64 with a die shrink got a 59% boost (Being generous - this is the liquid cooled Vega 64). Assuming a modest 55% increase in line with this, we would get 21.2 tflops for Navi's big die power hungry form.
Critically, however, consoles do not use the biggest fattest hungriest chips. Even if Navi did yield 30 tflops at single precision, which I think would be an unprecedented jump in recent memory, the consoles would be using the smaller version of it, with much less performance. As you can see - the RX 290x in 2013 had nearly Scorpio level compute power, but the PS4 only launched with 1/3 of that.
- 2013 - RX 290x - 5.6 tflops - 438mm die on 28nm
- 2015 - Fury X - 8.6 tflops (+53%) - 596mm die on 28nm
- 2017 - Vega 64 - 13.7 tflops (+59%) - 486mm die on 14 nm
Vega 64 with a die shrink got a 59% boost (Being generous - this is the liquid cooled Vega 64). Assuming a modest 55% increase in line with this, we would get 21.2 tflops for Navi's big die power hungry form.
Critically, however, consoles do not use the biggest fattest hungriest chips. Even if Navi did yield 30 tflops at single precision, which I think would be an unprecedented jump in recent memory, the consoles would be using the smaller version of it, with much less performance. As you can see - the RX 290x in 2013 had nearly Scorpio level compute power, but the PS4 only launched with 1/3 of that.
I see. Still, <2X this Gen doesn't seem too enticing. I won't accept anything less than 12TFLOPS then.
But that's silly because XB1X isn't the base for developers and the CPU in the next gen consoles will be much more powerful than Jaguar. It'll be a significant leap even at 10TF.
GamingPheasant
Banned
I second this. 1 TFLOP per frame in 4K Ultra settings.
FWIW, the PS4 launched in late 2013 around a year and a half after AMD's Radeon Southern Islands line. The PS4 contains something similar to a Radeon 7850/7870 (~2 TFLOPs), which was a mid-range card a year and half old, roughly half as powerful as the 7970 (~4 TFLOPs) that headlined the Southern Islands line.
There's no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but Navi won't be available in retail channels until 2019. Let's say the PS5 launches in late 2020, mirroring the year and a half gap as with the PS4. A midrange Navi GPU roughly half as powerful as the Navi headliner (30 TF) would offer maybe 15 TF of single precision performance.
Again, all of the Navi numbers are coming out of "analysts'" anal cavities (I see no reason to believe in 30 TF SP performance for single-GPU solutions in <18 months), and past performance is not indicative of future results.
There's no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but Navi won't be available in retail channels until 2019. Let's say the PS5 launches in late 2020, mirroring the year and a half gap as with the PS4. A midrange Navi GPU roughly half as powerful as the Navi headliner (30 TF) would offer maybe 15 TF of single precision performance.
Again, all of the Navi numbers are coming out of "analysts'" anal cavities (I see no reason to believe in 30 TF SP performance for single-GPU solutions in <18 months), and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Shifty1897
Member
Wtf. I will eat my own head if the ps5 pushes more than 10 TFLOPS, there's no way.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
Although 30 is fever dream fantasy territory, above 10 is extremely likely.
AstroNut325
Member
I'll settle for 15 teraflops.
FearlessBelgian
Member
Honestly I even think that the next consoles will have at best the power of a GTX 1070 ... The PS4 released in 2013 had a mid-range hardware of 2010, if the next-gen consoles come out in 3 years, they will have the mid-range config of today, hoping that this is a GTX 1070 and not a lower thing ...
And we speak about Tflops only but Tflops do not say everything ...
And we speak about Tflops only but Tflops do not say everything ...
Leonidas
Member
It'd be a disaster if they don't get to at least 12 Tflops.
They went from 1.8 to 4.2 in 3 years. At that rate, a 10 TFLOP box in 2019 or 2020 is to be expected, so RIP you.
Martinski43
Member
No fucking way consoles next generation will have 30 TFLOPS.
Like really.
Like really.
Dictator93
Member
It must also be noted that Vega 64 seems to be suffering from some intense utilisation issues in extracting that performance. It was already noted before with Fury X that it may actually require more bandwidth perhaps than it has to get proper CU utilisation, and Vega 64 seemingly has this problem to a much greater degree than Fury X had. Its performance in real world games shows how its % theoretical Tflop increase is not yielding more real performance.
So unless AMD change that seeming design problem in Navi, consoles may end up having more trouble on this end than even dedicated GPUs as they will be sharing that bandwidth.
Nvidia just announced yesterday the biggest gpu. 21 billion transistors and 815mm^2 on the new 12nm process in their new Volta architecture. It is 300 watt TDP which obviously is too hot for a console, regardless of it being 15tflops. This chip is both too large and too hot to fit in a console, however AMD throws more flops at a problem to match performance because their architecture efficiency is no where as good. AMD will be able to get to about 15tflops, with a consumer grade gpu that Sony or Microsoft could fit in a console and sell for under $500 on 7nm node.
Mixed precision will get that number up to maybe 21tflops, but that is more the end of the generation, a pro version of those consoles might reach 30tflops later, but that is pretty much the end of the line. IBM 5nm process requires such precision and 4 gates for each transistor that it's reduction in size will not yield as high a return and may be cost prohibited. That is the end of the console race folks, at least in the foreseeable future. A decade after those pro boxes are released, they might finally be able to double the performance, but I doubt it with the constrains of a console.
Naughty Dog believes it will take 40tflops to reach photo realism.
Mixed precision will get that number up to maybe 21tflops, but that is more the end of the generation, a pro version of those consoles might reach 30tflops later, but that is pretty much the end of the line. IBM 5nm process requires such precision and 4 gates for each transistor that it's reduction in size will not yield as high a return and may be cost prohibited. That is the end of the console race folks, at least in the foreseeable future. A decade after those pro boxes are released, they might finally be able to double the performance, but I doubt it with the constrains of a console.
Naughty Dog believes it will take 40tflops to reach photo realism.
Is the RX 480 (thinking of Xbox One X here) a mid range GPU of 2014? Genuine question.
RX 480 is a mid-range card for 2016.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
30TF!? Matt is not amused....
We're looking at 5-6 times PS4 so ~10TF, 12TF if we're lucky.
We're looking at 5-6 times PS4 so ~10TF, 12TF if we're lucky.
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
You'll get a 2GHz 8 core Zen CPU / 12tflop GPU APU, 16GB's of HBM2 RAM and like it !!
"Shitty Zen cores" will be the battle cry of all self respecting PC gamers!
"Shitty Zen cores" will be the battle cry of all self respecting PC gamers!
Obliterator
Member
Between 15-20 TF. Though I think it's gonna be right at about 15.
Couldn't imagine any scenario where they could go above 20 and even that number is very much pushing it above reasonable
Couldn't imagine any scenario where they could go above 20 and even that number is very much pushing it above reasonable
bitbydeath
Member
It's even hard to imagine PC having that so soon, let alone the dual 60TF also mentioned in the article.
No, but it was roughly mid-range in 2016 when it released. Of course the XBX is also priced at $499 so you're definitely paying premium for the extra power/new hardware.
Zen CPUs would be a huge improvement over jaguar, not sure it would happen but it would be the biggest resource bump in the box by a mile. 12tflops to 18tflops is the sweet spot, and expect developers to all use mixed precision going forward for a 50% to 70% increase, on the low end, that's 18tflops mixed precision and on the high end, it's 30tflops mixed precision.
Aizu_Itsuko
Member
The PS4 didn't have mid-range 2010 hardware in terms of GPU either while we are at it.
OP, lower your expectations or be disappointed, your choice.
Yeah, I'm thinking now that Microsoft has basically turned TF's into the new bits, Sony will probably reveal PS5 with some shiny big neon "10 TF" or whatever plastered all over the marketing and conferences.
facetheslayer92
Member
PS6 will be 30 tf 
Obliterator
Member
Yeah that's too low. Lowest I could see them coming in is 12TF,
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
"New baseline will blow people away" seems to be a popular meme but yeah 10 or under would be a disaster. There's no stuffing the 4k genie back into the bottle so they'll need a lot to make it a worthwhile jump.
Azelover
Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Wow! That's a lot of horsepower, but what is it good for exactly? Besides longer loading times.
Higher resolution, 8K? More particle effects? More grass? More glamorous uncanny valley? What is this gonna give me that I can actually appreciate without having to buy yet another display.
Higher resolution, 8K? More particle effects? More grass? More glamorous uncanny valley? What is this gonna give me that I can actually appreciate without having to buy yet another display.
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