Leonidas
Member
Tflops can be compared since Xbox One, PS4 and AMD mid-range GPUs use basically the same architecture. It's not like comparing bits of the old days...
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Speculation: Nextgen to be 30TFLOPs+?
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Tflops can be compared since Xbox One, PS4 and AMD mid-range GPUs use basically the same architecture. It's not like comparing bits of the old days...
Its 4tflops over XB1...PS4 Pro has as many flops total as there would be the difference between flops of XB1X and PS5.
In general, though, flops is unimportant. What's more important is that even at that level, PS5 would be having exclusive games unlike Pro and XB1X. The difference between PS5 and PS4Pro would be a canyon wide just on that fact alone, and an adequate generation leap from PS4 base and XB1, the consoles upon which this generation is based.
For those people saying "above 10tflops or a disaster!" i dont think you should make unreasonable expectations for yourself just to be let down later. People did it with Wii U, XB1, PS4, Pro, Switch and XB1X.
They are gonna go for reliable, stable, power efficient chips that get the job done at a reasonable price
D4rth Man7iz
Member
In our wildest dreams.
Obliterator
Member
Leonidas
Member
Going from PS4 to PS5 will be a huge jump for sure, but 7 years is also a long time.
Going from Scorpio to a theoretical 12 Tflop PS5 3 years later is not that much of a leap.
Scorpio is based on current generation limitations, it is held back by having to conform to what XB1 can do with its games, which limits it significantly. Like 7th gen AAA games had to conform to PS3 and 360, despite PC being a world away from both of them.
Upgrade the CPU, and the XB1X itself could be considered a gen leap from the original XB1, especially if devs funneled all of that power away from resolution boosts of current gen games, but that's not the case.
As i said, around 10tflops is not unreasonable. But going any higher than that and you risk overshooting
Obliterator
Member
I still think 12 TF is the minimum with 15 being the hopeful high end. Anywhere between 12-15 sounds pretty solid imo.
Everlya_Apocryha
Banned
Yes but then again, why the fixation of number specs.
For a console, it's more important for it to be 'balanced' (price to performance, size, heat dissipation, power consumption, etc) that just pure crunching numbers.
Performance is more than just specs. If number is all that matters, then there's no need for any F1 race as the cars with the best 'specs' win....but that's not the case. It requires the driver's skills. And in the console space, the driver is the platform holders..the policies they made surrounding their platform, the games, relationship with devs, etc...
The conversation of 'we need more FLOPS' is just short-sighted.
Shin
Banned
Directly no, but Zen 2 or 3 might or could be on par with the current desktop versions.
Type_Raver
Member
Looking at the trajectory of GPU's and their timelines, its most likely that we will see mid-tier GPU's from around that era nearing 2020, and in my guesstimation, that will be between 12-16TFLOPS.
Now from generation to generation, the multiplication factor is flattening out, but the FLOPs increase in pretty incredible. If we look at the Playstation generation, it will become clearer in this table:
PS1: ~100 MFLOPS (or 0.1 GFLOPS)
PS2: 6.2 GFLOPS
PS3: 230 GFLOPS
PS4: 1840 GFLOPS (or 1.84 TFLOPS)
PS4Pro: 4200 GFLOPS (or 4.2 TFLOPS)
Now the multiplication factor in between the generations.
PS1 to PS2 = ~60x
PS2 to PS3 = 37x
PS3 to PS4 = 8x
PS4 to PS4pro = 2.25x
What about PS4 to PS5? If we use the same 8x multiplier, we get 14.72 TFLOPS. I think this falls in about the right gap i predicted above.
However, i think big gains could be made by upgrading to a much better CPU, which has been the limiting facter when comparing same-gen games to their PC counterparts.
It will probably have 16GB GDDR5 RAM with very high bandwidth, coupled with CPU + GPU upgrades and we should see a very reasonable upgrade.
Now from generation to generation, the multiplication factor is flattening out, but the FLOPs increase in pretty incredible. If we look at the Playstation generation, it will become clearer in this table:
PS1: ~100 MFLOPS (or 0.1 GFLOPS)
PS2: 6.2 GFLOPS
PS3: 230 GFLOPS
PS4: 1840 GFLOPS (or 1.84 TFLOPS)
PS4Pro: 4200 GFLOPS (or 4.2 TFLOPS)
Now the multiplication factor in between the generations.
PS1 to PS2 = ~60x
PS2 to PS3 = 37x
PS3 to PS4 = 8x
PS4 to PS4pro = 2.25x
What about PS4 to PS5? If we use the same 8x multiplier, we get 14.72 TFLOPS. I think this falls in about the right gap i predicted above.
However, i think big gains could be made by upgrading to a much better CPU, which has been the limiting facter when comparing same-gen games to their PC counterparts.
It will probably have 16GB GDDR5 RAM with very high bandwidth, coupled with CPU + GPU upgrades and we should see a very reasonable upgrade.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
The resolution is really the problem, though. 720p -> 900p for X360 to XBO meant that for a 5x increase in floating point performance, an 8x increase in memory, a lot more memory bandwidth and a radically enhanced GPU architecture, it only had to spend that performance on 1.5x as many pixels. For the PS4, it was a similar story - an 8x increase in floating point performance (although no ability to take advantage of cell stuff like PS3 had), all those other benefits for rendering 2.25x the resolution.
The Xbox One and PS4 are, once adjusted for their "typical" target resolutions, the same machines. I mean there's a few minor differences and quirks but they're broadly comparable outside of the target res.
A 10TF PS4 is a 5.5x increase in theoretical floating point performance for rendering 4x as many pixels. Now you might say that every single PS5 game will use checker-boarding or sub-native resolutions, such that it's only rendering 2x as many pixels (this is worse than what the Xbox One x is offering and would be pretty much a non-starter on that front, in my opinion). That's still a less impressive per-pixel increase in performance than the previous two generations, while also being less exciting in other ways. Navi's architecture and features won't be some kind of revolutionary change such that the effective performance is much higher than the flop count indicates. It's highly unlikely to coincide with an 8x increase in memory, or for it to be sporting enormously higher bandwidth.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Really hoping for at least 16 Tflops....or 8X increase over base PS4.
Shin
Banned
Would drive native 4K with all bells and whistles and eyecandy, and good enough for 90FPS 2560x1440 PSVR2.
That's what I'm thinking as well.
Psyrgery ES
Member
Next generation will be...
One billion Teraflops!!!
One billion Teraflops!!!
Holy crap thats a revelation for me!!
Leonidas
Member
GPU specs and RAM speed(and w/ Scorpio the amount of RAM) is the main thing that separates Xbox One and PS4. Aside from that they're all pretty much the same.
The drivers of the console is everyone who makes games for the platform whether it be 3rd party or 1st party.
hydragonwarrior
Member
Vulcano's assistant
Banned
The case has often been that numbers are less than we hoped for, but then everything looks better than we thought and doubt the trailers are even real.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
Well even within this generation there are games that some people doubted were real time, or running on real hardware. The visual gulf between average studios and ones with extreme technical prowess is quite vast. When it comes time for PS5/XBTwo They'll show off the best looking games in development, but a lot of cross-gen stuff will not look *that* much better on the new systems, and even some next gen exclusives won't achieve the same heights as the best current gen stuff, outside of an advantage in pure resolution.
amstradcpc
Member
Nah.As can be seen with a RVega 64 with already 13 Tflops if next gen consoles dont jump to Nvidia next gen, we will get the equivalent performance of a 1080 at 7nm and 120 watts with PS5 and XB2. Is so much the difference in performance per watt between the architectures that is not even funny.
TakeItSlowDude
Member
I am guessing slightly above 20s TFlops if they are going to be aggressive with cooling like the Xbox One X, else under 20 TFlops if it has a more standard cooling setup. It will also be dependent when they release and if the next gen will be built on 1st gen 7nm with DUV or 2nd gen 7nm using EUV. I am thinking in late 2020 or 2021 a 20 TFlops should be possible at the 200W range. A bigger constraint on next gen consoles will be memory bandwidth, maybe HBM will be ready to go mainstream by then but I am guessing GDDR6 (or 6X if another QDR standard is made) will be used.
I think 4x the performance of the Xbox One X (25Tflops) would be a nice target that would enable clean 4k rendering (native res, 12bit-HDR, spatial AA combined with temporal and post techniques, 16x AF). Though that is a large gap to get out of the transition from 14nm to 7nm and an advance of only 1.5 uarch generations. From everything I have read 7nm is supposed to be significantly more dense than 14nm while the performance improvements are average, so one strategy could be to design next gen APUs to be much wider (larger dies with more CU) but to run at lower frequencies.
I think 4x the performance of the Xbox One X (25Tflops) would be a nice target that would enable clean 4k rendering (native res, 12bit-HDR, spatial AA combined with temporal and post techniques, 16x AF). Though that is a large gap to get out of the transition from 14nm to 7nm and an advance of only 1.5 uarch generations. From everything I have read 7nm is supposed to be significantly more dense than 14nm while the performance improvements are average, so one strategy could be to design next gen APUs to be much wider (larger dies with more CU) but to run at lower frequencies.
Well yeah, i don't think devs are going to be targeting native 4K for games that really push the hardware. i think Sony will focus more on hardware fixed function units for checkerboard rendering and be lenient on what target resolutions devs can aim for(maybe might have a 1080p limit like Pro). And then come out with a pro version halfway through the gen again to focus on resolution.
I think its clear that PS5 as a baseline unit will have a completely different function than a Pro or a XB1X, and so resolution wars are pretty meaningless between a hypothetical 10tflop PS5 with 16GB GDDR6 RAM and Zen2 APU running next gen games compared to XB1X running higher resolution current gen games at XB1 levels of fidelity
Lagspike_exe
Member
12-15 TFLOPs Navi would be a good bet. Along with other architecture tricks it should provide substantial upside vs Pro/Scorpio.
dr_rus
Member
You can have (and actually have some) 60 fps games on PS4 or even XBO, CPUs are not what's preventing this from happening.
Dee Dah Dave
Member
LOL.
Anything less than around 15TF would be a shame though. There's no going back from 4K now and a 10TF machine isn't going to look hugely different than the games a Scorpio can pump out. There will be CPU improvements on top but still.
Anything less than around 15TF would be a shame though. There's no going back from 4K now and a 10TF machine isn't going to look hugely different than the games a Scorpio can pump out. There will be CPU improvements on top but still.
People keep repeating this, but that doesn't make it any more true. XB1X is an iterative unit, PS5 is a next gen machine, their purposes are completely different...the way PS5 uses its hardware is not going to be funneled toward refining existing games
Nah, I think PS5 and Xbox ...lets call it Microsoft 'Project Gemini', should probably both have 12 TFLOP GPUs, meaning double the raw GPU power of Project Scorpio / Xbox One X.
That's only 6.5x more than base PS4 GPU (12 TF / 1.84 TF = 6.5x more floating point performance).
Of course, that doesn't count whatever new features a semi-custom Navi / Next Gen GPU architecture has, plus the improved efficiency per watt, and to say nothing of Zen-based CPU technology.
.
GameAddict411
Member
Vega has been a disaster in term of performance vs efficiency. Navi will be similar if they stick with GCN one more time. Next Gen consoles will probably been in the teens when it comes to TFLOPs figures. That's off course several years from now.
blastprocessor
The Amiga Brotherhood
Next downsize is 7nm from 16nm in the Pro. Double the tflops and boost the speed and you're talking 10.0 tflops minimum.
So 10TF seems about right.
Mr. Phellps
Member
I think it's likely that they will use a custom Navi chip with more modest specifications but still vastly more powerful than current gen. Between 10 and 15 TFlops, I'd say, since that's what the thread is about. Comparing the numbers, that is roughly 8x what the PS4 has and 3x what the PS4 Pro has.
But what they really need to bring their A game next time is both RAM memory and CPU power. The Jaguar is holding this generation back far more than the GPUs are.
But what they really need to bring their A game next time is both RAM memory and CPU power. The Jaguar is holding this generation back far more than the GPUs are.
Okami Haundo
Member
Yeah... I'm no expert when it comes to this stuff, but I've seen convincing arugments for a 10-12TF PS5 and a potential Xbox Two launching later at 12-15TF.
Head.spawn
Junior Member
Needs to be 60Tflops, ride or die... 30Tflops will be a literal fucking slide-show.
LordOfChaos
Member
Might use that architecture, but with scaled down execution units.
The bigger deal will be the CPU, that's where the next gen could really distinguish from this one.
The bigger deal will be the CPU, that's where the next gen could really distinguish from this one.
Shazz_rulez19
Member
This is what i say a realistic answer altho i believe itll be 12 TF and everything the same with 16GB of GDDR6 and Zen2 7nm @4.0GHz with no turbe-esqe capabilities.
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