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[THE:MILKMAN]

FWIW, the PS4 launched in late 2013 around a year and a half after AMD's Radeon Southern Islands line.

IMO, this is mostly down to lead times. Look at Xbox One X. The design had already been signed off before the E3 2016 announcement hence the specs not changing.

So if PS5 is 2019 it means the design will probably need to be finalised by ~ the end of this year/spring next year for a fall '19 launch. It just takes this amount of time (18-24 months) to get a product like this to production.

 

[bitbydeath]

Regarding the OP, you're talking about high end parts using more power than the PS4 entirely to hit those numbers. Somewhere in the 10-15 range seems likely if it launches in 2019-2020.

It looks to me like Navi will be used (unless they go super cheap with a custom polaris -_-).

That said they could custom Navi as others had mentioned and bring down the TF as heat could always be an issue.

Previously I was always of the mind 10TF min, 12TF max (focus on CPU), but if they can harness even some of this then who knows what nextgen will bring.

 

[Trago]

"New baseline will blow people away" seems to be a popular meme but yeah 10 or under would be a disaster. There's no stuffing the 4k genie back into the bottle so they'll need a lot to make it a worthwhile jump.

I strongly doubt they will unless they plan on selling us a $500+ box.

 

[Sephiroth_VII]

If the next-gen consoles launch in 2020, I think it's feasible. It depends on how quickly costs go down though.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

I strongly doubt they will unless they plan on selling us a $500+ box.

4k uptake is becoming more and more mainstream (majority of all new TVs sold as of a year or two ago) and by Holiday 2019/2020, the idea that your brand new console won't support 4k gaming would be ludicrous when your 2016-2017 refresh boxes did it fine. Now this isn't to say every game needs to be native 4k, but if PS5 has worse image quality than Xbox One X, that'll be a PR disaster in the making.

 

[Trago]

4k uptake is becoming more and more mainstream (majority of all new TVs sold as of a year or two ago) and by Holiday 2019/2020, the idea that your brand new console won't support 4k gaming would be ludicrous when your 2016-2017 refresh boxes did it fine. Now this isn't to say every game needs to be native 4k, but if PS5 has worse image quality than Xbox One X, that'll be a PR disaster in the making.

I agree, but I'm not too sure how the console audience will react to a console that's $500 or more in 2019/2020. Not saying Sony doesn't want a leap next gen, but like current gen consoles, I suspect that they won't make a big jump in every aspect of the system specs.

 

[Kill3r7]

15-18TFs Max.

Do you think they can deliver that in 2020 sub $500?

 

[K.Jack]

I strongly doubt they will unless they plan on selling us a $500+ box.

In 2 years, something much faster than the X1X won't have to cost $500, so the 4K bases will be more than covered.

 

[DukeLongfellow]

I couldn't say anything about the details of these specs but I do remember something from a few years back... When the PS4 specs were first revealed someone posted a link to a 2010-2011 thread about how Sony's "next gen console" would have 8 gigs of RAM and a few other things that basically hit the mark.

But people responding to the speculation were bashing and laughing at the idea as completely idiotic or impossible, directly stating that (for instance) RAM would be lucky to exceed 2 gigs at max.

Reading this thread, it's like deja vu almost.

 

[Trago]

In 2 years, something much faster than the X1X won't have to cost $500, so the 4K bases will be more than covered.

Depends on the kind of jump a console powered by Navi will bring.

 

[FearlessBelgian]

Do you think they can deliver that in 2020 sub $500?

No .

10-12 Tflops max.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It costs $500 to deliver 6 TFs right now so it seems unlikely that they'll go past 12 by 2020.

 

[KageMaru]

If the next-gen consoles launch in 2020, I think it's feasible. It depends on how quickly costs go down though.

It's not feasible at all. The cost will be too high for a console GPU. On top of that the size would be too large for a console sized box.

I agree, but I'm not too sure how the console audience will react to a console that's $500 or more in 2019/2020. Not saying Sony doesn't want a leap next gen, but like current gen consoles, I suspect that they won't make a big jump in every aspect of the system specs.

Console prices have slowly but steadily risen in some respects already if we ignore odd cases like the 3DO, Neo Geo, and Saturn. Die shrinks is slowing down and becoming harder to do but gamers are still expecting a decent jump in performance. This requires relatively large and expensive chips. I can see $500 being the standard price next gen. We'll be getting a much more capable CPU, ~double GPU performance of the 1X (more or less), and probably double the memory. The APU will need to support this but only be roughly half the die size if they go with 7nm.

I'm curious to see how it all turns out.

 

[N21]

Unless some unforeseen breakthrough happens to the computer part sindustry, the PS5 will mostly like be around 10-13.5TFLOPs in power.

In 2 years, something much faster than the X1X won't have to cost $500, so the 4K bases will be more than covered.

How do you know this for sure, do you think a configuration of brand new off shelf parts will be more cheaper and faster than the XB1X?

 

[Fisty]

No .

10-12 Tflops max.

Yep and since it would be raising the baseline, people should be measuring the jump with PS4 and XB1, not the Pro and XB1X. 12tf baseline for games with massively improved CPU will be the generational leap we all crave after 5 or 6 years.

 

[K.Jack]

Depends on the kind of jump a console powered by Navi will bring.

High powered Navi APUs aren't even on the table, within the timeframe people are talking for the PS5.

Unless some unforeseen breakthrough happens to the computer part sindustry, the PS5 will mostly like be around 10-13.5TFLOPs in power.

How do you know this for sure, do you think a configuration of brand new off shelf parts will be more cheaper and faster than the XB1X?

Technology is not stagnating, to the point that beating a Jaguar + RX 480 combo is some monumental task.

 

[Maintenance]

I remember reading the previous threads about future gens power and people always look like fools.

 

[johancruijff]

But how many dreamcast taped together?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Half that. Maybe.

 

[Various Artists]

Highly doubt it. Unless you want to spend $600+

I would spend $600 on that right now with the caveat that I can see where we are when the consoles are announced. XBX is already $500 for 6TF are you saying $100 isn’t worth that much more?

 

[dr_rus]

AMD will be able to get to about 15tflops, with a consumer grade gpu that Sony or Microsoft could fit in a console and sell for under $500 on 7nm node.

Mixed precision will get that number up to maybe 21tflops

Sure, if 1x2=1,4

 

[LukasTaves]

5 times the Xbonex? Yeah, that seems reasonable, not sure about 2019 though.

 

[statham]

If this is what next gen is targeting, it'll maybe be late 2020 or probably 2021. Even through tech maybe ready. (see Zen). Supposedly you lock down tech 18 months before hand?

 

[bitbydeath]

5 times the Xbonex? Yeah, that seems reasonable, not sure about 2019 though.

Yea, would be cutting it close, last time they did that we got $599 Cell, 2020 though is possible.

 

[Shin]

500/600 I'm fine with it, these things lasts 10 years or supposed to anyway.
I don't really see the problem with them pushing for that price point if it gets us a better* machine.
Along with backwards-compatibility and all that nifty stuff of a digital age, I'm down.

 

[Eylos]

This feels too good to be true this must be the high end Navi card, the low end Underclocked version of this is what we Will get isnt?

 

[mugurumakensei]

30 TF is a hell no. PS4 used an older already released mid-tier line in 2013.

Likely scenario is 13-16 TF if they want to again offload calculations to the GPU. 8x multiplier would give us 14.4 TF or so.

If they want to maximize value they'll go 12-13 TF for the GPU and get a processor with much better IPC.

 

[farisr]

I honestly think 15TF is the upper range of what to expect at a $400 pricepoint in 2019/2020.

 

[SlimySnake]

10 is best case scenario. If the best ms can do in 2017 is a 6 tflop gpu for $500 then Sony isn't going to be able to double that in three years for $400.

I'm still hoping for a 15-20 miracle.

 

[MaulerX]

The dream is good until you wake up.

 

[PeterLegend]

You'd be lucky to get 10 TF with a decent CPU for $400 lol

 

[dr_rus]

30 TF is a hell no. PS4 used an older already released mid-tier line in 2013.

Likely scenario is 13-16 TF if they want to again offload calculations to the GPU. 8x multiplier would give us 14.4 TF or so.

If they want to maximize value they'll go 12-13 TF for the GPU and get a processor with much better IPC.

A CPU will not be able to perform much GPU calculations no matter what IPC it will have. I really don't know why people expect so much from future console CPUs. In my view not much will change even if new consoles will have 8 core Ryzen-2s in them - most games will still be at 30 fps and the additional CPU power will be spent on procedural physics effects akin to Havok and PhysX.

 

[Proelite]

If AMD gets their shit together and is able to compete with Nvidia in the perf / watt, we can possibly see a 20tflop max in best case scenario. Minimum is 2x due to dab improvements from 16nm to 7nm.

Personally I'm thinking 15 tflops due to density and clock improvements.

 

[thelastword]

I still remember saying that PS5 will be 24-30 TFlops and people saying 10 TFLOPs is all we're getting on PS5...There was a thread about it a few months ago here...

It's simple really, there's no way a console is landing in 2020 with only 10-12 TFLOPs, that would be ridiculous. We are already at 13 Tflops currently, we're looking at MGPU's coming later this year, a RX Vega refresh in 2018 and Navi coming in 2019. All of that will predate PS5 with significant increases in Tflop count....The earliest I see PS5 coming is November 2019, and surely, Navi will be on store shelves by then...

 

[Obliterator]

These 10TF posts are a little crazy. 7nm is gonna make a big difference

 

[JigglesBunny]

Not a chance. Consumers would balk at the cost.

 

[thelastword]

Not a chance. Consumers would balk at the cost.

Technology advances, it don't sleep you know....PS3 was 256+256Mb, PS4 is 8GB with some hardware and mem for video capabilities. PS4 PRO even have a bit more...We're looking at the next generation. I don't think a minor step from 4.2 - 6Tflops on these mid gen refershes to 10-12 TFlops is going to cut it.....I bet you by next gen, people will be talking about 8K, tech just won't stop, it can't stop

 

[K.Jack]

This feels too good to be true this must be the high end Navi card, the low end Underclocked version of this is what we Will get isnt?

30TF is definitely going to be the highest of high-end Navi chip, if those even reach such a number.

 

[KageMaru]

Technology advances, it don't sleep you know....PS3 was 256+256Mb, PS4 is 8GB with some hardware and mem for video capabilities. PS4 PRO even have a bit more...We're looking at the next generation. I don't think a minor step from 4.2 - 6Tflops on these mid gen refershes to 10-12 TFlops is going to cut it.....I bet you by next gen, people will be talking about 8K, tech just won't stop, it can't stop

Last gen started at 90nm chips while we started at 28nm this gen. That's a huge difference, much bigger than going from 28nm to 7nm. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think we'll see a similar PS3 -> PS4 leap.

 

[Leonidas]

I still remember saying that PS5 will be 24-30 TFlops and people saying 10 TFLOPs is all we're getting on PS5...There was a thread about it a few months ago here...

It's simple really, there's no way a console is landing in 2020 with only 10-12 TFLOPs, that would be ridiculous. We are already at 13 Tflops currently, we're looking at MGPU's coming later this year, a RX Vega refresh in 2018 and Navi coming in 2019. All of that will predate PS5 with significant increases in Tflop count....The earliest I see PS5 coming is November 2019, and surely, Navi will be on store shelves by then...

The 13 Tflop Vega is waterclooed and runs at 300+ watts(more than what any console uses. In 3 years that type of GPU will be midrange and will be what I expect goes into the consoles.

AMD had a 4+ Tflop GPU in 2012(Radeon HD 7970 GE). Four years later Sony had a 4+ Tflop console(PS4 Pro) with slightly more cores but at a lower clockspeed.

 

[Everlya_Apocryha]

This current fixation on TFLOPS is borderline fanatical like the Bit wars in the 90s....

The 3DO has more bits than SNES, the Genesis has a faster CPU than SNES...so what?

 

[fersnake]

one of the things i think about it is, how many TF(and having a nice cpu) is enough for them to target 60fps on all games?

 

[opticalmace]

one of the things i think about it is, how many TF(and having a nice cpu) is enough for them to target 60fps on all games?

Infinite

 

[Obliterator]

one of the things i think about it is, how many TF(and having a nice cpu) is enough for them to target 60fps on all games?

Nothing. You could have a 100TF and you would still get 30fps games.

It's all on the developer how they want to allocate resources. Some go for 60fps and other push for as much eye candy as they can

 

[Leonidas]

one of the things i think about it is, how many TF(and having a nice cpu) is enough for them to target 60fps on all games?

We'll always have 30 fps console games because they'll continue to use mobile CPUs. A 2 GHz Mobile Ryzen won't perform like a desktop Ryzen.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Note: The minimum range of TDP for the Navi GPU in the OP is the almost same as the entirety of the PS4 which includes CPU, hard drive, and blu-ray drive. At a max of 300w, it consumes roughly twice the power of what the entire PS4 does at peak. Navi's high-end is not being put inside of a PS5.

 

[j^aws]

Every generation, the same OMG, this is unpossible!

All you have to do is follow Sony consoles since the PSX, and you will see a trend, where there is an approximate generational leap:

- 5-10 times the computational power (measured in single precision FLOPs)
- 16 times the total system and graphics memory (measured in MBs)

They are constrained by price and thermal envelope of the console enclosure each time, as long as Moore's law keeps chugging along, the next console cycle is unlikely to change.

For example:

PS3: 512 MB, 300 GFLOPs (X360 ~ 200 GFLOPs)
PS4: 8 GB, 2 TFLOPS (not as cutting edge)
PS5: 128 GB, 20 TFLOPs (ballpark)

 

[McHuj]

We'll always have 30 fps console games because they'll continue to use mobile CPUs. A 2 GHz Mobile Ryzen won't perform like a desktop Ryzen.

Even if they had the “desktop “ Ryzen you would still get 30 FPS games. Developers will always push eye candy before frame rate.

 

[Instro]

It looks to me like Navi will be used (unless they go super cheap with a custom polaris -_-).

That said they could custom Navi as others had mentioned and bring down the TF as heat could always be an issue.

Previously I was always of the mind 10TF min, 12TF max (focus on CPU), but if they can harness even some of this then who knows what nextgen will bring.

Oh yeah I agree I will be Navi based, or something 7nm anyway, just not 30TF. Reasonably I would expect something similar in power to the Vega 56/64 that just released. By 2019-2020 that type of power should be available at something that can fit in a console, draw less than 100W, and keep the console price under $400.

 

[Caramello]

The sweet spot is going to be 2020, $499, 12TF + vastly improved CPU and VR processing built-in.