Oh, I don't know. This is the company that said Tomb Raider's millions of sales across three platforms was a disappointment and then allowed for the sequel to be (so far as we really know) "exclusive" to Xbox. This is also the same company that developed/published two exclusive RPGs for the Xbox 360 (The Last Remnant and Infinite Undiscovery). Yes, I realize that was more than half a decade ago and things have dramatically changed, but I still wouldn't put a DQ on a Microsoft console out of the realm of possibility. It's not like it stopped them from doing it with Final Fantasy.
Money talks, and Microsoft has money. If Microsoft really wanted Dragon Quest on Xbox, I'm sure they'd pony up the dough for it.
Sure they can, but will it happen though? Do the benefits it would give MS outweigh the costs?
The market for JRPG's (especially for Dragon Quest) just isn't on Xbox platforms (compared to Nintendo & Sony platforms), it has been proven only by looking at the sales numbers alone. We all know DQ's main market is Japan and how is the Xbox One selling over there? Final Fantasy has a bigger western appeal than DQ so it only makes sense to put that franchise on every home console (and it's still questionable whether or not that decision will reap the rewards as FFXIII didn't really sell that good on the 360)
What that means is that Square Enix will think twice before releasing DQ games for the Xbox One, will they gain enough profit from that version to cover the costs?
Also, the fact that Dragon Quest Heroes is a Sony exclusive in the west makes me think there is a sort of deal going on with the franchise.
IF Microsoft decides to use their money to "convince" SE then it begs the question on why they would do that as it wouldn't really have a lot of positive effect financially, they will ask themselves if it was worth it in the end and I think we all know the answer.
There's also that strange thing with DQ games in which they only release on the best selling platform (mobile lol) I don't see them breaking that trend anytime soon without some major "convincing"
Don't get me wrong, I never said it's impossible, just that there needs a lot to happen for it to be realized.