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Square Enix ships Tomb Raider 3.4M, Sleeping Dogs 1.75M, Hitman 3.6M
- Thread starter Pooya
- Start date
about the expected part
I tried to explain it in OP, it's 'expected' and these 'results' the posted today are 'forecasts' because the fiscal quarter hasn't ended yet, it ends on March 31, you should see these as preview of the real thing that comes out in early May but will be same as these, that's why Wada quit now and not waited till then
SE does it every quarter pretty much, in advance of announcing the results on the scheduled day, they release revised forecasts!! because they failed miserably to match whatever they announced last quarter and I guess prepare the poor shareholders not holding them up until results come in LOLZ.
so yeah, you can assume these 3 games shipped that many as of now, not including digital.
I tried to explain it in OP, it's 'expected' and these 'results' the posted today are 'forecasts' because the fiscal quarter hasn't ended yet, it ends on March 31, you should see these as preview of the real thing that comes out in early May but will be same as these, that's why Wada quit now and not waited till then
SE does it every quarter pretty much, in advance of announcing the results on the scheduled day, they release revised forecasts!! because they failed miserably to match whatever they announced last quarter and I guess prepare the poor shareholders not holding them up until results come in LOLZ.
so yeah, you can assume these 3 games shipped that many as of now, not including digital.
but the table says "expected units sold in FY13 - fiscal year 13 ends in a couple of days"
the "failed to meet each target" is what throw me off.about the expected part
I tried to explain it in OP, it's 'expected' and these 'results' the posted today are 'forecasts' because the fiscal quarter hasn't ended yet, it ends on March 31, you should see these as preview of the real thing that comes out in early May but will be same as these, that's why Wada quit now and not waited till then
SE does it every quarter pretty much, in advance of announcing the results on the scheduled day, they release revised forecasts!! because they failed miserably to match whatever they announced last quarter and I guess prepare the poor shareholders not holding them up until results come in LOLZ.
so yeah, you can assume these 3 games shipped that many as of now, not including digital.
3 years development costs times at least 200 employees salaries per year = 50-60 million just in dev costs for tomb raider, Then you've got a , guesswork here, 30-50 million $ promotion budget for the game. Retail only makes money for the first couple months- 35$ per copy sold = 105 million $ revenue. So they might have just broken even in the game and they told shareholders it was going to do 75 million in profit.
I thought Fiscal Year 2012 ends in March.
MikeE21286
Member
So do we have any gauge in terms of the average Metacritic score for retail $60 releases?
Trying to gather my thoughts on their projection for scores.
Trying to gather my thoughts on their projection for scores.
olimpia84
Member
Two things that really scare me about this topic:
1. The big amount of units sold some titles like Tomb Raider have to meet in order to be considered profitable. This doesn't bode well for this upcoming next gen era where development costs have nowhere to go but up.
2. The importance publishers are placing on Metacritc =/
1. The big amount of units sold some titles like Tomb Raider have to meet in order to be considered profitable. This doesn't bode well for this upcoming next gen era where development costs have nowhere to go but up.
2. The importance publishers are placing on Metacritc =/
yeah, these are not those targets they failed to reach. with these 'expected' shipments they still fail to meet whatever target they had. SE doesn't reveal sales expectations like Capcom does a year in advance. I hope it's clear now.
True, I haven't seen any actual well-researched evidence that Metacritic scores directly affect sales of a game.
However, it could easily be argued that in this day and age of financial vulnerability, consumers are much, much, much more likely to look at a Metacritic score as an indicator on whether or not their hard-earned 60$ will be well-spent on Blockbuster Game X or Blockbuster Game Y.
The existance of the "greatest hits" line for all consoles pretty much disproves this. Those games are sold at $20 because they're pretty much pure profit outside of packing costs. They already made back the overhead expenses.
Mithos
Member
If your making a game with the expectations that it will earn you all money spent in the first month, I'm sorry but then your doing it wrong.
If Tomb Raider 6 months from now still have sold under expectations yeah then its a failure.
SpaceDrake
Member
Seriously. Who put these slides together? This is confusing as hell. Are these actual shipments or what they wanted to ship? If the latter, why even mention that without the content of what HAS shipped? Why not include that information?
Whoever takes over the CEOship is going to have a long job ahead of them to right this ship if said ship can't even do investor reports right anymore.
Sees metacritic score
What the hell is wrong with publishers putting so much weight into metacritic scores.
Well the point is that critical-acclaim among reviewers doesn't guarantee good sales.
fiscal years are always ahead. FY 14 ends by end of March 2014 e.g.
Peterthumpa
Member
GAF wants it or not, Metacritic is THE standard for analyzing a game's performance among the press. If it's highly acclaimed, box quotes and all - it's (in theory) an easier sell.Sees metacritic score
What the hell is wrong with publishers putting so much weight into metacritic scores.
Basileus777
Member
If Tomb Raider shipped 3.5 million in 3 weeks on two platforms (no digital sales, so PC essentially excluded) and underperformed, I wonder how high their target was.
Acheteedo
Member
Is that the case these days? Obviously not in this example, but generally.
about the expected part
I tried to explain it in OP, it's 'expected' and these 'results' the posted today are 'forecasts' because the fiscal quarter hasn't ended yet, it ends on March 31, you should see these as preview of the real thing that comes out in early May but will be same as these, that's why Wada quit now and not waited till then
SE does it every quarter pretty much, in advance of announcing the results on the scheduled day, they release revised forecasts!! because they failed miserably to match whatever they announced last quarter and I guess prepare the poor shareholders not holding them up until results come in LOLZ.
so yeah, you can assume these 3 games shipped that many as of now, not including digital.
I doubt this is the correct interpretation. 3.6M for Hitman would be huge. That's better than what Arkham Asylum did in the same timeframe. That would also be close to twice what the last game did LTD. I think that was their lofty target, and that they failed to meet the target.
sublimit
Banned
Maybe i'm being optimistic but could it be consumers are starting to realize that the majority of reviewers are not to be trusted in this industry?
Sees metacritic score
What the hell is wrong with publishers putting so much weight into metacritic scores.
We have dedicated review threads on here where the score or lack of it can decide whether someone is getting a game on release day or in a couple months.
It matters to both business and consumer.
Maybe the other slides cover this, but it looks like Square is trying to pin Eidos for their problems, when really whoever was making such ridiculously inflated sales targets is to blame. Also, the slide doesn't reflect how Square has utterly failed to consistetly release non-Eidos titles, which is their biggest failing.
In the Wada is gone thread, someone jokingly referred to picking up the ex-EA CEO. They could do worse - at least EA seemed to deliver titles on time (that can have its own negatives, rush jobs etc., but still).
In the Wada is gone thread, someone jokingly referred to picking up the ex-EA CEO. They could do worse - at least EA seemed to deliver titles on time (that can have its own negatives, rush jobs etc., but still).
IISANDERII
Member
Is this confirmed to be genuine? I smell a fake.
AstroNut325
Member
The executive interpretation of this means less console games and more iOS games!
I think a real hitman game would have done better than this at least. The PC crowd alone would have boosted it up if it was a traditional hitman game. Deus Ex HR did almost a million on PC alone at launch since it had about 80k concurrent users.
I recall RE6 was a failure to Capcom because it couldn't sell 7M copies. I figure we have one more console generation to go before the industry implodes on itself
If that's the punishment for killing off the middle-budget genres, like survival horror, RTS and stealth, then it's fine by me.
Even then, publishers are continuing to ramp up budgets and reducing their offerings to derivative lowest common denominator bullshit, so it's their own damn fault.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I'm talking just userbase.
Given how front-loaded the AAA blockbuster games industry is right now, I think you can have a fair idea after the first month as to how realistic meeting the targets is.
it's not if they moved those units with heavy price promotion, as the slide suggest they did exactly that. shipped isn't sold either, their sell through could be a lot less than another game shipping same copies. SE overships their titles a lot and their lose their price very quickly.
Human Revolution was at 2.2M sales after its first year. How many S-E titles have broken 2.2M worldwide since they acquired Eidos? Final Fantasy XIII and Dragon Quest 9? Not sure how much blame they can throw at Eidos when they are supplying almost all of their multimillion sellers.
It still seems too high. 500M yen for price protection adjustments only works out to $5.3 million. That doesn't cover all that many copies selling at $30-40 less than a month after release.
When 9's and 10's are handed out left and right, with an extraordinary use of superlatives and hyperbole, it's no fucking wonder that people have lost faith in contemporary game reviews.
When this has been the standard for several years now, it's perfectly understandable that the industry and the reviewers have created this weird vortex of financial reliance on Metacritic scores.
Hopefully you are right that consumers have realized this.
D
Deleted member 59090
Unconfirmed Member
Big japanese companies of old just don't know what's happening in the west these days, Capcom fails at sales forecasts every single time too.
Maybe this will be a wake up call for SE and Eidos. Stop ruining old franchises for the sake of the casual crowd that doesn't exist anymore and keep your budgets in check. Deus Ex and Hitman fans don't need bleeding edge graphics to buy the game, Tomb Raider fans just want puzzles and actual Tombs.
A LOT of games are very front loaded though. So it's not crazy to expect the bulk of the sales to be within the first few weeks. Especially when so many publishers release a game and then forget about it after the first several weeks. Rarely do games continue to be pushed. That's when the game will be at full price as well and they'll get the most return on their invest. Sounds like not even that happen because they had to pay retailers who slash the prices in order to move units.
People aren't stupid. We all know how things go. Wait a few weeks and the prices will drop from $60 to something many consider to be far more reasonable be it $50, $40, or even $30.
Totally this. Metacritic is great for checking out reviews etc, but companies using it as something reliable to find out their average score is ridiculous.
I'm still not clear how metacritic decides the average for each game either.
They don't simply round up all the reviews and draw an average from that, right? Each website has a different weight, as far as i understand, though is there a way to see which websites as more influence?
They don't simply round up all the reviews and draw an average from that, right? Each website has a different weight, as far as i understand, though is there a way to see which websites as more influence?
It's 3.6 million at discounted prices.
Mithos
Member
Yeah that is what's missing in the new game that should just have been called: Lara Croft
I wonder how fast they will start spew out singlepalyer Tomb DLC and outfit DLC now to try to make money.... ;p
On PC its never been that high, weeks before release half price for a Steam code, and its still half price (ie ~$30).