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[Nirolak]

So I think this is one of the more explicit statements of concern we've seen regarding an individual game and the state of the Japanese game market, especially for a major title like this.

One way in which they've leveraged the game however is that they seem to have reused all the monster models in their new Hearthstone-esque card game, and presumably will be running events in all their mobile games (and perhaps the MMO?) to celebrate the release.

Q: How does your sales plan for ”DRAGON QUEST XI" compared to that for the previous installment in the series?

A: It's difficult to make a direct comparison given how different the market landscape is now compared to when we
released ”DRAGON QUEST IX," which was back when home consoles were in their prime. Our plan is to leverage
”DRAGON QUEST XI" to generate earnings across the DRAGON QUEST brand.

Q: There is a ¥5 billion gap between the upper and lower ends of your FY2018/3 operating income forecast. Does
that owe to your outlook for ”DRAGON QUEST XI" sales?

A: That is the product of a multitude of factors and does not owe to any one title. Our outlook for ”DRAGON QUEST XI"
is conservative given changes in the market landscape and other considerations.

Q: Could you elaborate about your FY2018/3 earnings forecasts and your medium-term targets?

A: As regards our FY2018/3 earnings forecasts, I would note that the sales plan for the HD Games sub-segment is
focused largely on titles for the Japanese market. The plan is a conservative one given the significant changes that have
taken place in the Japanese market since the days when home consoles were the primary medium for game play. In
terms of the medium-term targets, I will say that we are currently revisiting our pipeline with the objective of reaching
our targets by around FY2020/3.

Source: http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/pdf/17q4outline.pdf

 

[NolbertoS]

Consolw or no console, DQ is ingrained in rhe Japanese culture like KFC sales on Thanksgiving in Japan. People will still line up in droves and buy it. Mobile be damnned for this series.

 

[Oregano]

DQIX wasn't a home console game though?

Overall I think they wasted too much time.

3DS should have got an XI about two or three years ago and the PS4/Switch game should be XII.

 

[LinkSlayer64]

Consolw or no console, DQ is ingrained in rhe Japanese culture like KFC sales on Thanksgiving in Japan. People will still line up in droves and buy it. Mobile be damnned for this series.

KFC sales.... what?

 

[Passose]

DQIX wasn't a home console game though?

Overall I think they wasted too much time.

3DS should have got an XI about two or three years ago and the PS4/Switch game should be XII.

but what about the X1?

 

[Foldedpencil]

So they released DQ IX for a handheld when consoles were at their prime, and DQ XI for consoles when mobile is eating the most market share. Makes sense.

 

[True Fire]

I mean, it's getting 3 different versions and it has the potential to be ported to literally any platform. It'll be fine.

 

[Nirolak]

DQIX wasn't a home console game though?

Overall I think they wasted too much time.

3DS should have got an XI about two or three years ago and the PS4/Switch game should be XII.

This is presumably a translation issue with how Japan talks about consoles.

They mean they're concerned about the state of dedicated gaming devices in Japan.

 

[NolbertoS]

KFC sales.... what?

Japan never had Thanksgiving or Turkey, but KFC had the bright idea in the 90's to offer thanksgiving sales in Japan for chicken buckets and now its a tradition in Japan that on Thanksgiving people will buy KFC buckets as a way to celebrate Thanksgiving

 

[Calm Mind]

Is this uncertainty about the PS4 or consoles in general?

 

[sanstesy]

Not a good sign when they don't even mention how preorders are doing but just say this.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I mean, it's getting 3 different versions and it has the potential to be ported to literally any platform. It'll be fine.

Yeah this is how I see it too. I guess it depends on exactly what their non conservative expectations would be, but it should do quite well on 3 platforms.

 

[Mediking]

Hmmm....

I guess my old philosophy that good games will always sell well or be held in high regard regardless of a situation isn't exactly realistic...

But putting DQXI on 3DS and PS4 is really smart all the same. Hopefully Japan supports those platforms and the Switch version does well too.

 

[E_Darkness]

I hope if the console versions do poorly in Japan that doesn't affect a localisation.

I'd like to think it's Dragon Quest and will be fine anyway.

 

[Atolm]

The 3DS version will be fine, PS4 can do 1m+, looking at FFXV's sales. If they push it a bit in the West, like they did with VIII, they'll recoup costs no problem.

 

[dmcRedgrave]

Consolw or no console, DQ is ingrained in rhe Japanese culture like KFC sales on Thanksgiving in Japan. People will still line up in droves and buy it. Mobile be damnned for this series.

You're thinking of Christmas.

 

[Kouriozan]

I can understand how they feel, 3DS is at the end of its life, PS4 softwares a lot of trouble selling more than 500k, Switch port would be limited by the stock issue and limited install base.

 

[Jetman]

Consolw or no console, DQ is ingrained in rhe Japanese culture like KFC sales on Thanksgiving in Japan. People will still line up in droves and buy it. Mobile be damnned for this series.

Hahaha

 

[Oregano]

but what about the X1?

I dunno what about it?

This is presumably a translation issue with how Japan talks about consoles.

They mean they're concerned about the state of dedicated gaming devices in Japan.

I figured that was the case.

Well Switch's launch must give them a bit more confidence at least although it's not the like the 3DS was/is a slouch.

 

[gabe90]

You're thinking of Christmas.

Yup, definitely Christmas. Thanksgiving is nothing in Japan. On Christmas, they roll out Co. Sanders in a santa suit in front of many KFCs and people line up. It's amazing.

 

[NolbertoS]

You're thinking of Christmas.

Oops my bad just double checked. Christmas tradition is the correct holiday

Edit: and its a tradition since the 1970's

 

[Father_Brain]

Purely from a financial perspective, I don't really understand why the PS4 (and presumably Switch) version exists. It's assuredly far more expensive to make and will almost certainly sell worse than the 3DS version, and it seems unlikely that the franchise will explode overseas relative to previous entries.

A hypothetical non-AAA PS4/Switch version that was just a spruced-up version of the 3DS game would have made more sense.

 

[Kanann]

It will bomb hard Saito gonna go replace Hiroyuki Ito as head janitor and toilet overseer.

Purely from a financial perspective, I don't really understand why the PS4 version exists. It's assuredly far more expensive to make and will almost certainly sell worse than the 3DS version, and it seems unlikely that the franchise will explode overseas relative to previous entries.

Because PS4 is primary (Horii "Big screen"' comments), and the development team have done something stella on DQX before.

 

[True Fire]

This game's strength will be double and triple dippers.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

If it releases this year on Switch I dont see any other JRPG for the japanese to buy.

Now that I think about it, I dont think there is other JRPG on PS4 for the second half of the year either.

 

[Oregano]

This game's strength will be double and triple dippers.

I think people vastly overestimate how many there will be.

DQVII and its 3DS remake only did around five million units and there a significant gap between them. Simultaneous SKUs or ones close to it probably won't beat that.

 

[NSESN]

They should have released the 3DS version last year imo.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Its been over 7 years since the last new SP mainline DQ game - ofc is difficult to give a predictions considering the game is on two systems(with a third version planned as well) and there havent been a mainline release in a while.

So from 3-5m everything is possible. Who knows.

 

[Father_Brain]

Because PS4 is primary (Horii "Big screen"' comments), and the development team have done something stella on DQX before.

"Horii is in charge and really wants to make an AAA console DQ" isn't a business argument, though.

 

[kromeo]

As much as I'm grateful they're doing it I'm not really sure what the purpose of the PS4 version is from SE's point of view, the Japanese will buy the handheld version in hugely greater numbers and they don't even seem to care about the west enough to announce a localisation

 

[jett]

With DQXI releasing on three different platforms I imagine it will still do pretty decently.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

It will do well in the West just like Persona 5, probably better, if there is marketing behind it. Just announce it already.

 

[AquaWateria]

Hopefully they finally reveal the Switch version.

 

[Kyoufu]

I don't see the purpose of the PS4 version. It'll sell at least a million in Japan at 9000+ yen per copy and then there's the potential to sell more worldwide where PS4 is much stronger in the market and perhaps strengthen the IP internationally. What's the point?

 

[koutoru]

Unlike with Japanese mobile games, in order for Japanese console games to be considered hits, they now have to rely on the global console market and not just the dwindling Japanese console market.

Dragon Quest has always been more popular in Japan obviously. So it makes sense why they would be concerned since they now have to rely on a global audience to make the title successful.

 

[Kanann]

"Horii is in charge and really wants to make an AAA console DQ" isn't a business argument, though.

Saito Yosuke and Miyake Yu are in charge, but few main things are all Horii want, the judgement.

And from history, all three agree before about DQX should goes MMO, and MMO happened, even some of the team really oppose it (especially Fujisawa Jin, one of senior and former director). DQXI is in the same situation here, and without Jin, he got kick to mobile and don't want to have a business in DQ anymore.

 

[Magicpaint]

The 3DS version should have released much sooner. They waited too long, and now the 3DS software market is waning down a little. Hopefully the PS4 version can offset this but there's obviously a lower ceiling. I have no confidence about the Western performance as well.

 

[Yohane]

KFC sales.... what?

 

[Aeana]

I don't see the purpose of the PS4 version. It'll sell at least a million in Japan at 9000+ yen per copy and then there's the potential to sell more worldwide where PS4 is much stronger in the market and perhaps strengthen the IP internationally. What's the point?

It seems like you answered your own question? They can't sell a 3DS game internationally and hope for good sales at this point, but a PS4 version has the potential to do well.

There are other parts of the puzzle. People have been asking for a new DQ8-style DQ for a long time, Horii wanted to make one, and this might be the last time when a home console is actually a viable target in Japan for Dragon Quest.

 

[Akainu]

I don't see the purpose of the PS4 version. It'll sell at least a million in Japan at 9000+ yen per copy and then there's the potential to sell more worldwide where PS4 is much stronger in the market and perhaps strengthen the IP internationally. What's the point?/s(?)

?

Are you joking?

 

[inner-G]

I know it won't, but I'd love to see it outsell FFXV

3DS-only version of XI would be DOA in the west.

 

[Father_Brain]

It seems like you answered your own question? They can't sell a 3DS game internationally and hope for good sales at this point, but a PS4 version has the potential to do well.

There are other parts of the puzzle. People have been asking for a new DQ8-style DQ for a long time, Horii wanted to make one, and this might be the last time when a home console is actually a viable target in Japan for Dragon Quest.

I think he was being sarcastic.

Anyway, I think this overestimates the sales potential of the PS4/Switch version overseas (and perhaps domestically as well), but who knows, maybe it'll pay off somehow.

The series going multiplatform makes perfect sense; the console version having AAA production values does not, at least to me.

 

[StereoVsn]

How about doing simultaneous release in the West ala FFXV? Surely that would help the hype for the game. But no, we will have to wait till sometimes in 2018 when all the excitement will die down.

 

[Castef]

Start porting it on every console (PS4/Switch/XB1) and PC, and publish it worldwide.

 

[antibolo]

Yeah Square Enix!

Here's a crazy idea.

Release the game internationally. Localize it for same day release in the West.

We know you are capable of doing it, because you did it with FFXV. It had like 6 languages, even.

You can complain all you want about how the Japanese market is dying, but the solution is easy: just fucking stop making games only for Japan (that are then maaaaaaaaybe localized later). Stop leaving money on the table by limiting yourself to the constantly shrinking Japanese market.

Also, it's not just Square Enix. All you Japanese devs, get a fucking clue. Integrate localization in your goddamn development cycle. Why did we have to wait 6 months for Persona 5 to be localized? We're in 2017, the market is global, get with the fucking program already.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

DQXI PS4 will be the ultimate test of "Will Japan buy PS4 games now?"

 

[NSESN]

I know it won't, but I'd love to see it outsell FFXV

3DS-only version of XI would be DOA in the west.

If it released this year yes. But some years ago? BD sold really well, so I think DQXI would do too.

 

[AuthenticM]

How much sales would this game get on Steam?

 

[Screamapillar]

They're releasing it on the all the right platforms, i think it'll do fine.

 

[Ushojax]

DQIX wasn't a home console game though?

Overall I think they wasted too much time.

3DS should have got an XI about two or three years ago and the PS4/Switch game should be XII.

You could say that about every single one of their main series. They wasted the entire PS3 generation. It's taken them almost 13 years to make Kingdom Hearts 3.