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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Check this out...
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unusual-activity-novavax-164400139.html
Showing up on CNBC today.
7.60 is basically the line in the sand for support and if the stock bounces off of that Monday morning I'll increase my position. Roll the dice for P3. Otherwise I'll hold for about 7.25.
My gut feeling is the stock bounces off support at 7.60 and then we get that run to 10 I've been anticipating before results are released. I'd like to see this stock to get to at least 9 before results are released.
My only concern right now (and its a big one) is the overly bullish attitude. Too many times I've seen guaranteed successes get crushed. While it may not pertain here it is just a reason to not get too eurphoric and still expect the worst while hoping for the best. Still nervous about the results. I don't do options but I've been considering options for NVAX.
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unusual-activity-novavax-164400139.html
Showing up on CNBC today.
7.60 is basically the line in the sand for support and if the stock bounces off of that Monday morning I'll increase my position. Roll the dice for P3. Otherwise I'll hold for about 7.25.
My gut feeling is the stock bounces off support at 7.60 and then we get that run to 10 I've been anticipating before results are released. I'd like to see this stock to get to at least 9 before results are released.
My only concern right now (and its a big one) is the overly bullish attitude. Too many times I've seen guaranteed successes get crushed. While it may not pertain here it is just a reason to not get too eurphoric and still expect the worst while hoping for the best. Still nervous about the results. I don't do options but I've been considering options for NVAX.
Yeah. I'd like $10 before results. I don't think things are overly bullish with 64m shares short. That's like 25% of total shares and a sizable bet they will fail.
I'd take 10-20% of my shares off the table at $10.
My comments about bullishness are mainly the "NVAX can't fail Phase 3" articles popping up. I always get worried when that happens. I still expect good news but I brace for the worst.
I'm curious about the short interest too. Wonder if they are actual shorts or just big firms hedging against a P3 failure with puts that won't be used if successful.
Looked like one big short bailed out on Friday for sure. When the price spiked from like 7.50 to 7.90 in one second that is a giant short bailing out and perhaps going long.
I'm curious about the short interest too. Wonder if they are actual shorts or just big firms hedging against a P3 failure with puts that won't be used if successful.
Looked like one big short bailed out on Friday for sure. When the price spiked from like 7.50 to 7.90 in one second that is a giant short bailing out and perhaps going long.
Hedges most likely with an 80%+ institutional ownership rate.
ClosingADoor
Member
And everything back in the red. Fun day. Hopefully some recovery in the coming week.
Yeah I just read on Investor Village that NVAX is initiating Phase 4 now, which is basically the last step by the FDA to get their drug on the market.
Screw it more shares at 8 dollars, lets do this. Probably grab some more if it dips to 7.50.
No more swing trading NVAX time to hold for p3 and hope for the best.
Screw it more shares at 8 dollars, lets do this. Probably grab some more if it dips to 7.50.
No more swing trading NVAX time to hold for p3 and hope for the best.
Phase 4? What for?
That's what Phase 3 is for. Any Phase 4 would be for further use of the vaccine etc...
It looks like that IV post is wrong about it anyway.
Heh, are you MrBobz on stocktwits?
Yeah that's me unless Stocktwits allows multiple names.
I like Stocktwits quite a bit. There is a lot of garbage to sift through but parsing out the trash you can find some nice info on different stock boards. Have a few on my WatchList I want to invest in but right now playing the P3 lottery with NVAX first..
I like Stocktwits quite a bit. There is a lot of garbage to sift through but parsing out the trash you can find some nice info on different stock boards. Have a few on my WatchList I want to invest in but right now playing the P3 lottery with NVAX first..
Assuming the SCTY and TSLA merger goes through, what is the exact conversion metric? According to Tesla's presentation on August 1st, the ratio is of 0.110, but it also mentions a share price of $25.37 based on an average trading price at the end of July.
With that in mind, do I get $25.37 worth of TSLA for each share of SCTYor do I get 0.110 shares of TSLA for each share of SCTY?
With that in mind, do I get $25.37 worth of TSLA for each share of SCTYor do I get 0.110 shares of TSLA for each share of SCTY?
To my EXEL friends Cabo received European approval..
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-commission-approves-cabometyx-cabozantinib-050000490.html
Stock has been beast mode lets see if this takes it above 13. Possible this might be priced in already. Depending on how the stock moves might pick up some more shares.
Thanks for the invite but I don't really use Facebook. That group is either going to be party town or a support group.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-commission-approves-cabometyx-cabozantinib-050000490.html
Stock has been beast mode lets see if this takes it above 13. Possible this might be priced in already. Depending on how the stock moves might pick up some more shares.
Thanks for the invite but I don't really use Facebook. That group is either going to be party town or a support group.
robertsan21
Member
Is it worth getting in on NVAX now?
Depends on your trading strategy or investment horizon.
If you're a gambler you could buy a small position now to play the phase 3 data readout. If you're risk averse, you can wait until the results and then buy in immediately afterwards but then you'll probably miss the initial pop in share price.
ClosingADoor
Member
So, Monsanto takeover bid $128. Stock pre market $106. Shouldn't that go up a lot?
Investors probably don't believe the deal will go through due to regulations.
This article is a week old but gives the insight you're looking for: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-i...nt-below-the-latest-offer-from-bayer-cm674994
Melon Husk
Member
5day VWAP of the buyer
I've got a long position, but yeah there seems to be a lot of doubt around this deal going thru.
ClosingADoor
Member
Got a small position in Bayer myself, see how it goes. Too bad it went from +3% to +0.3% today. Hopefully back to 100 later.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I'm going to take a small stake in Monsanto instead. Let's see if this merger goes through or not.
Thanks for responding.
When is the 5day VWAP calculated? Back in July when the offer was accepted ($25.37), when the 45 day go-shop period terminates, when the shareholders approve..?
I suppose I just need to know what specifically would happen to 10 shares of SCTY. I can extrapolate from there.
ClosingADoor
Member
Damn, is that after hours right for NVAX? After Hours: 1.55 -6.79 (-81.41%)
D
Deleted member 245925
Unconfirmed Member
http://ir.novavax.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=71178&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2202271
Topline data from the Resolve Phase 3 trial did not meet pre-specified efficacy objectives
Fuck.
Topline data from the Resolve Phase 3 trial did not meet pre-specified efficacy objectives
Fuck.
Sorry dude just don't tell her until after you get a big win. Not sure if I would sell at this point since it seems like they have cash to keep going right now. Hard to say though.
It wasn't just a miss it was fairly sizeable miss from P2. Difference so big makes you wonder if the P2 results were doctored. There have been plenty of P3 failures but usually results are much closer than this to P2. If the miss was small the stock wouldn't be tanking as hard. It is possible this might come around again but it is going to take a long time. Perhaps that trial we saw initiated a couple days ago was a P3B trial and they are going to try again.
With such a big drop today usually there is possibility of a dead cat bounce. Thinking of potentially buying some more tomorrow for a swing trade but I might be catching a falling knife.
It wasn't just a miss it was fairly sizeable miss from P2. Difference so big makes you wonder if the P2 results were doctored. There have been plenty of P3 failures but usually results are much closer than this to P2. If the miss was small the stock wouldn't be tanking as hard. It is possible this might come around again but it is going to take a long time. Perhaps that trial we saw initiated a couple days ago was a P3B trial and they are going to try again.
With such a big drop today usually there is possibility of a dead cat bounce. Thinking of potentially buying some more tomorrow for a swing trade but I might be catching a falling knife.
Haha yeah at this price I could double my stake with the spare change I have in my brokerage account. Not going to throw good money after bad though. I'll probably just wait until December and take the loss.
mmazurkiewicz
Member
i don't feel bad for anyone who got screwed on that. pharmaceutical penny stock. I wonder what could go wrong.
What? Damn. Sorry. Need that EXEL buyout now.
I typically stay around 5% on spec stocks when not swing trading. I almost bought more than my 5% but I kept my rule intact.
Sorry, I should clarify that when I say portfolio I mean my Robinhood account that I put $200 in last October to play around with stocks. I haven't added any cash to it since. I am basically just trying to see how much I can grow the initial investment with stock trading. I lost a lot last year with SCTY so I started getting into biotech. I was in the red since I started and have only climbed back to the green recently in the last 2 weeks thanks to NVAX and EXEL. I was around $202~ yesterday and this morning I'm at ~$99.
My real portfolio is in an IRA, index funds, and robo-advisors, otherwise I'd prolly be destroyed this morning if my Robinhood account consisted of my real portfolio. I've come to realize I'm bad at stock trading / gambling thanks to Robinhood.
thestopsign
Member
Is NVAX something I can just hold onto long term? Will the company just fail now or will it have another chance at Phase 3?
It's hard to say, I've seen biotech companies come back from the dead before (Exel is one actually) but it's going to take years. These comebacks don't happen overnight. Or even in 12 months. Years. This was their mainline drug and the P3 results were disastrous. I mean worse than placebo how does that even happen? I honestly have no idea how their RSV drug passed P2 if P3 wasn't even better than Placebo. So basically their main drug is toast and while they do have other things in the pipeline there is nothing close to approval. RSV was the drug that was going to put NVAX on the map. Was being the key word. They have a little more than 300 million in cash and their debt are in notes that are due in 7 years so they don't have short term obligations. However cash burn is always a problem with clinical biotechs and I'm not sure how they raise any more money outside of potential dilution. There might be a short term pop to 2 or 3 (these bounce backs happen on stocks that get crushed) but Id only play this as a swing position. They have an analyst meeting on Oct 11 that will give people more clarity. Still, that cash burn problem is an issue. Plus, the company has gotten away with bad earnings reports on the potential of RSV and that potential is gone.
Edit: Seeking alpha posted an article today. Should have just found this first and saved myself time of writing out a post haha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4006718-novavax-take-ball-go-home
That's good. I'm up a little but not much anymore. Made an decent amount swing trading then held some shares with my profit....but after an 85% haircut there isn't much profit left. I don't like this current market anyway not holding anything long except my retirement funds. Waiting for September 21 to come and go first.
Edit: Seeking alpha posted an article today. Should have just found this first and saved myself time of writing out a post haha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4006718-novavax-take-ball-go-home
That's good. I'm up a little but not much anymore. Made an decent amount swing trading then held some shares with my profit....but after an 85% haircut there isn't much profit left. I don't like this current market anyway not holding anything long except my retirement funds. Waiting for September 21 to come and go first.
