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[Eolz]

From Superdata talking with Gamesindustry:

While The NPD Group is not ready to give its full assessment just yet, the firm did note to GamesIndustry.biz that digital promotions on PlayStation Network and Xbox Live were much more aggressive this year and may have impacted the retail channel. Digital aside, the sector that seemed to struggle the most is virtual reality, according to SuperData, which said VR has been the "biggest loser."

Thanks to "notably fewer units sold than expected due to a relatively fragmented title line-up and modest marketing effort," VR headsets are now expected to sell even fewer than previously thought. SuperData's revised forecast for 2016 calls for under 750k PlayStation VR units sold (their previous estimate was 2.6 million) with Google's Daydream selling just 261k (down from 450k). Previous estimates for HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and Gear VR remain unchanged at 450k, 355k and 2.3 million, respectively.

"PSVR had the best opportunity to benefit from the holidays but their supply inconsistencies and lack of marketing have put them behind their potential. They did not offer any first-party deals this weekend, restock bundles or market the device, pushing instead for the PS 4 Pro. They have also pointed out that VR looks even better on a Pro than a standard or slim PS 4, so the message to most gamers is: Get the Pro now, then the PSVR later. As a result, we won't see them break 1M shipments until well into the new year."

Llamas added that Sony may be deliberately limiting PSVR supply until it can do a better job with supporting the platform.

Looking at the non-VR games market, Nintendo may actually prove to be the biggest winner, thanks to updates both to Pokémon GO and selling out of its NES mini. "On mobile we recorded a spike in earnings as players made the most of the Thanksgiving special for Pokémon GO. The game's ability to stay in the forefront of people's minds as we approach the release date for Super Mario Run may prove beneficial for Nintendo, which has yet to make a convincing claim on the $38 billion mobile games market," said Joost van Dreunen.

Pachter also agreed that the "pace of the mix shift to digital full game downloads continues to be brisk," but we probably won't know whether digital sales fully made up for retail declines until we get the complete NPD report for 2016 sometime in January.

Some really interesting quotes in there from various analysts, worth checking out the full link.

 

[The Lamonster]

Llamas added that Sony may be deliberately limiting PSVR supply until it can do a better job with supporting the platform.

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game changer.

 

[FlyinJ]

750,000 PSVR in two months is bad?

WTF

 

[Thewonandonly]

How is psvr failing tho?

Just myself personally I have sold 4 PSVR's and a PSPro. The word of mouth from this machine must be huge becuase everyone I have let try it have imidiatlh wanted to go out and buy. And as I pointed out most have haha

 

[Glix]

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game-changer.

Yeah I was going to post this. Their point makes no sense.

 

[inpHilltr8r]

It is when you massively overestimated previously based on number pulled from the usual place.

 

[KingSnake]

750,000 PSVR in less than a month is bad?

WTF

750,000 PSVR is the forecast for the whole 2016.

 

[Kathian]

Of course VR is going to do badly. It's just not got a killer IP yet. Doesn't mean it's doomed but someone has to get behind it with a significant software investment. Pretty clear with Sony reducing their output it won't be then. Valve might learn but who knows they keep launching unsupported hardware and Facebook were just throwing cash around.

 

[Thewonandonly]

750,000 PSVR is the forecast for the whole 2016.

Still if it is that much Sony has to look at it as a success. Havnt they already sold more then both their competitions.

 

[FlyinJ]

When it comes to VR predictions, this report is like Square Enix's 7.6 million Tomb Raider sales in a month forecast.

 

[SystemUser]

Is the PSVR sellout over black friday just the supply being artificially kept low? How did they predict to sell over 2 million if they are out of stock after only 750,000 units? Is this report not taking blakc friday into account?

 

[Cels]

750,000 PSVR in less than a month is bad?

WTF

the estimate is for all of 2016. so from oct 13 to the end of the year, which is about 2 and a half months, roughly 300k a month.

300k a month doesn't sound all that good, but i don't think it's all that bad either.

 

[sixteen-bit]

NES mini sold out, but do we know how many were produced? I have only seen sales figures for the famicom edition

 

[Spman2099]

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game changer.

They did everything right with PSVR... until they didn't. No bundles? No marketing? What the hell, Sony?

 

[Heroman]

Still if it is that much Sony has to look at it as a success. Havnt they already sold more then both their competitions.

What competition?

 

[Head.spawn]

750,000 PSVR in two months is bad?

WTF

"down from their previous estimate of 2.6 million".

 

[The Lamonster]

Still if it is that much Sony has to look at it as a success. Havnt they already sold more then both their competitions.

Yes, it has sold almost as much as Vive and Oculus combined.

 

[LOLCats]

i bought only disc games this BF. I did buy some DLC, but I rarely buy digital unless i'm sitting on PSN/XBL credit i need to spend. And I did buy a PRO and not PSVR. I don't plan on buying PSVR until way down the line. I mean way down, AAA games support down the line...

 

[FlyinJ]

the estimate is for all of 2016. so from oct 13 to the end of the year, which is about 2 and a half months, roughly 300k a month.

300k a month doesn't sound all that good.

Selling as much in a month as their competitors have sold in 8 months sounds like it's doing great to me.

 

[Dr. Black Jack]

but but but Nintendo is a fuckhead toymaker who can't do anything right, selling all of their hottest holiday product for a profit is a mistake /jimsterling

 

[Aspiring]

"down from their previous estimate of 2.6 million".

Sonys estimation or someone elses? If sony how so when its sold out they would know how many they produced and surely not predict a number 3 times what they can have on shelves...

 

[Timeaisis]

What a surprise.

VR is cool but there is no reason to own it right now as an average consumer.

 

[Mindlog]

Those VR numbers represent ridiculous growth of a niche segment.
Disappointing.
lol

Also, PSN and XBOX Live sale discounts were pretty pedestrian. Don't really think an aggressive push on their end is all that responsible for the shift from physical to digital media. Could be confirmed with some ASP/Unit charts.

 

[Spman2099]

but but but Nintendo is a fuckhead toymaker who can't do anything right, selling all of their hottest holiday product for a profit is a mistake /jimsterling

You seem bitter.

 

[Interfectum]

750,000 PSVR in two months is bad?

WTF

There is a ton of money being thrown at VR from investors. PSVR was initially expected to sell in the millions and now it won't break a million this year. Eventually the push will slow if the pull doesn't pick up soon.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Sony really didn't market PSVR and PS4 Pro like I thought they would this holiday, but I guess they see both platforms as more of a long run type thing. I really thought we'd see a special bundle that included both kits for a modest discount.

ps4 slim was the primary driver this year and I'm sure those sales were strong.

They do need to step up and talk about VR and Pro a lot at PSX this weekend otherwise it's going to look like the same tired Sony tradition of abandoning new hardware with haste.

 

[Wishmaster92]

Yes, it has sold almost as much as Vive and Oculus combined.

Damn. Thanks Sony for setting the new standard again.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Isn't this just this sites particular predictions and not Sony's?

 

[Head.spawn]

Sonys estimation or someone elses? If sony how so when its soldd out they would know how many they produced

Superdata's estimates from the looks of it.

It seems 750k sounds good to me, especially compared to the competition that was on the market a lot longer, but I don't know shit, so, lol.

 

[elohel]

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game changer.

Really wouldn't say most as a decent chunk of people on this site have specifically stated how meh they feel about it

VR will be , at least until the resolution and price of entry and content changes, an experiment in the mind of many as total immersion has no assumed properties

 

[| Praxis |]

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game changer.

I had a Vive, I don't consider VR a game changer to be honest. Impressive yes, but the novelty does significantly wear off after a few months. It will be an interesting side activity in gaming for the foreseeable future (if it lasts that long) but I can't see it progressing further for a long time.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen, and has seen a consistent drip of new content since release.

It's a shame Sony didn't market this thing, because most gamers who try VR consider it a game changer.

Had a PSVR at launch, played, at most, an hour with it. Now its collecting dust. Imo, there are no games worth my time on the system yet. Its not ready for primetime tech/games.
My hype has deflated considerably.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

but but but Nintendo is a fuckhead toymaker who can't do anything right, selling all of their hottest holiday product for a profit is a mistake /jimsterling

Their distribution for the mini is horrendous. This doesn't change that.

 

[FlyinJ]

There is a ton of money being thrown at VR from investors. PSVR was initially expected to sell in the millions and now it won't break a million this year. Eventually the push will slow if the pull doesn't pick up soon.

Sony is the only one throwing money at PSVR. They predicted they would sell 2.5 million units by the end of the year, and it's currently sold out everywhere.

Is this article saying that Sony purposefully only made 750k units even though they thought it would sell in the millions?

Something doesn't add up.

 

[Diprosalic]

Their distribution for the mini is horrendous. This doesn't change that.

keikaku

I don't quite understand this...PSVR had one of the most impressive launch lineups I've seen

maybe for VR but there's no game on it i'd ever want to play again after trying it for a bit.

 

[Stillmatic]

750,000 would be a great number for 2016. 2.6 mil was an idiotic estimate.

 

[KAL2006]

As ive states before

I dont trust Sony with any other product other than their mainline consoles. Playstation Eye, Move, Vita were all flops and dropped by Sony quite early on. MS learnt this with Kinect and its probably why VR isnt important to them now. Not worth the risk on investment especially because how pricey it is. Atleast Vita has backwards compatanility and free Plus games and Move was quite cheap. VR will just be a expensive bit of hardware people use for 6 months and never touch again.

 

[Eolz]

Sonys estimation or someone elses? If sony how so when its sold out they would know how many they produced and surely not predict a number 3 times what they can have on shelves...

Isn't this just this sites particular predictions and not Sony's?

Those are Superdata's predictions yeah. Thought that it would be clear enough.
Don't think Sony gave any predictions or estimates for PSVR outside of internally.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

This sounds like nonsense to be honest. The VR parts, that is.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Those are Superdata's predictions yeah. Thought that it would be clear enough.
Don't think Sony gave any predictions or estimates for PSVR outside of internally.

I figured as much not gonna stop ppl tho

 

[Brandon F]

More examples of forecasting being completely off the mark in 2016...

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Had a PSVR at launch, played, at most, an hour with it. Now its collecting dust. Imo, there are no games worth my time on the system yet. Its not ready for primetime tech/games.
My hype has deflated considerably.

You clearly haven't given the games enough thought.

 

[Dr. Black Jack]

Their distribution for the mini is horrendous. This doesn't change that.

And? It made them a shitload of money and created a ton of hype, leading to financial analysts expecting a profitable holiday season which is crazy since they mulliganed this year. Sour grapes from a greasy YouTube blowhard doesn't change that.

 

[Boke1879]

Didn't Superdata make the ludicrous prediction of PSVR selling 2.6 million? That was never going to happen.
PSVR is selling well and it's selling whenever stock get replenished. So I have no idea what they want.

 

[Art Vandilay]

the estimate is for all of 2016. so from oct 13 to the end of the year, which is about 2 and a half months, roughly 300k a month.

300k a month doesn't sound all that good, but i don't think it's all that bad either.

Are we sure it's not FY 2016?

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

They must have made their original PSVR estimate back before the "VR is about to take over the world" bubble popped. That's a ridiculous number.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

And? It made them a shitload of money and created a ton of hype, leading to financial analysts expecting a profitable holiday season which is crazy since they mulliganed this year. Sour grapes from a greasy YouTube blowhard doesn't change that.

I currently can't buy one for my son outside of the secondary market, so I'm sour too.

 

[bounchfx]

What a surprise.

VR is cool but there is no reason to own it right now as an average consumer.

yep. still far too expensive for wide adoption, and plenty of improvements to be had.
not to mention lack of a 'system seller' type content. the VR itself is dope as fuck but it still needs great content. best thing I've used so far is Google earth VR.

it's still coming, no it's not dead, no it's not bomba, it's just not fully here yet.

 

[trixx]

i bought only disc games this BF. I did buy some DLC, but I rarely buy digital unless i'm sitting on PSN/XBL credit i need to spend. And I did buy a PRO and not PSVR. I don't plan on buying PSVR until way down the line. I mean way down, AAA games support down the line...

I think generally the sales on PSN/XBL was better than retail. At least with xbox live it was for quite a number of games

 

[Aspiring]

Those are Superdata's predictions yeah. Thought that it would be clear enough.
Don't think Sony gave any predictions or estimates for PSVR outside of internally.

I just wanted to make sure. Thanks heaps!

Just seems a weird prediction considering its soldout wordlwide essentially not just the states. Did they make this prediction before it went on sale just assuming Sony would ship more?

Sony obviously have their forecast for it and are obviously neeting them.