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Superdata: VR likely biggest loser this holiday, digital more agressive, Nintendo
- Thread starter Eolz
- Start date
House said in an interview with a Japanese title that Sony estimate the combined high level HMD market by end 2016 with be 2 - 2.5mn combined across OR, Vive & PSVR.
It wasn't specified if he was referring to calendar or FY though.
I would also point out that there's already a thread which China discusses the Superdata VR guesswork, and comparing the comments between the two is a good demonstration in how a thread title shapes a thread narrative & encourages confirmation bias in the replies (the other thread had a more neutral title).
It wasn't specified if he was referring to calendar or FY though.
I would also point out that there's already a thread which China discusses the Superdata VR guesswork, and comparing the comments between the two is a good demonstration in how a thread title shapes a thread narrative & encourages confirmation bias in the replies (the other thread had a more neutral title).
The Lamonster
Member
A lot of people like it that way, i.e. introverts.
And I do think it's here to stay because it will only get better. Imagine this tech with a bigger and better screen, yet wireless and lightweight.
There have been hundreds of non-gaming uses of VR in installations and events around the world in the past year - Car shows, tourism conventions, store installations, etc. Non-game VR has also been featured heavily at Sundance, Tribeca and Cannes.
Non-gaming people who try non-game VR at these events come away extremely impressed.
One of the most amazing and impressive uses of VR is Tiltbrush, and I've never seen anyone try it and not be blown away- gamer or not.
I was referring more to calling him a manchild and a greasy blowhard, but yeah if you ignore the unnecessary ad hominem attacks you might get what you got out of those quotes.
Kinect was bundled with 360 hardware, the 4GB SKU with Kinect was everywhere.
Teknopathetic
Member
"A lot of people like it that way, i.e. introverts."
I don't think being introverted or social has anything to do with it. Like, are people having Uncharted 4 parties? Is that a thing? You just invite a bunch of people over and have them watch you play a single player game? No, you don't. No one (that describes VR as an "asocial" gaming experience) calls that a "asocial."
I don't think being introverted or social has anything to do with it. Like, are people having Uncharted 4 parties? Is that a thing? You just invite a bunch of people over and have them watch you play a single player game? No, you don't. No one (that describes VR as an "asocial" gaming experience) calls that a "asocial."
This I disagree with - to date, I've seen far more indication of people wanting to participate with VR players than any 2d experience. It's the most social oriented "gaming" thing I've seen since motion controls.Peltz said:
I agree about "attention requirements" being higher though - but that's just a testament that the medium is more suited to different kinds of entertainment than a 2d game that has to constantly fight for player attention. The notion it all needs to conform to only one form is frankly speaking - a bit silly.
i didn't see any PSVR units on shelves leading up to Black Friday. I could understand backing off on it marketing wise for the moment. waiting on wave 2 of game releases.
That being said i've barely used mine because theres been sooo many games to play. once i get through FFXV i'll be able to fully jump into VR.
That being said i've barely used mine because theres been sooo many games to play. once i get through FFXV i'll be able to fully jump into VR.
But that 2.6M number isn't coming from Sony...
Yeah, their forecast numbers were bizarre.
Veritigo_X
Member
It can be a social experience if you make it one. It's hilarious seeing people do crazy stuff like getting on their knees to dodge bullets. It's a blast for everyone. And it's not like you can't see what they're seeing.
Couldn't disagree more. Stuff like Google Earth and Tilt Brush are really popular among my friends that play exactly zero video games. Hell, they even have a blast playing Zombie Training Simulator and other "traditional" games. These are people who usually come over to watch a movie or just hang out actually asking to play this thing.
Jawbreaker
Member
Aren't those numbers in line with what Jim Ryan said? I'm not sure why they would have expected over 1 million, let alone 2.6 million.
As I said on the previous page, Jim Ryan said the sales at launch window would be in the "many hundred thousand".
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...-vr-sales-to-be-in-the-hundreds-of-thousands/
It might not matter. If that was a number publishers, investors, etc were looking at it could still be very bad. I hope not.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Pretty sure plenty do all the damn time. Solo video game playing has been referred to as anti-social for decades
Obliterator
Member
Sony have never said anything about selling 2.6 million units. In fact I think they mentioned at one point selling in the hundreds of thousands around the launch window but I'm not sure if I'm mis-remembering the quote
Tom Nook Sawyer
Member
nm
I was going to say "Well it kinda makes sense, seeing as the popular headset was unavailable" until I read this part:
Was their previous estimate derived from a survey? Because that's a helluva revision.
This part is also interesting:
This makes no sense. Why would a business deliberately limit supply?
Was their previous estimate derived from a survey? Because that's a helluva revision.
This part is also interesting:
This makes no sense. Why would a business deliberately limit supply?
Tallshortman
Member
Lol citing selling out the mini as a success. Do we have our numbers for it yet? Seems like another case of Nintendo artificial supply constraint. Just like their N3DS deal.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Absolutely!
I was going to say "Well it kinda makes sense, seeing as the popular headset was unavailable" until I read this part:
Was their previous estimate derived from a survey? Because that's a helluva revision.
This part is also interesting:
This makes no sense. Why would a business deliberately limit supply?
Sounds like backpedalling due to their hilarious prediction.
SinCityAssassin
Member
That's roughly less than 5% of all PS4 owners in the world. So I think they thought it was a safe estimate for a new product exclusive to the platform.
If we go by the general Nintendo accusation, it's to promote a sense of demand that would not be there had Sony adequately supplied retailers with enough stock to fill the shelves.
Otherwise I more think that in this case, They may not want to ship out too much of the initial production line in case fixes need to be done for a refresh batch later on.
That seems really rough for VR, just from the standpoint of: these are the holidays and this is the early adopter surge.
Just don't see anything software wise on the horizon that's gonna move the needle, and feel like all VR discussion has just dropped off from enthusiast personalities, etc.
Just don't see anything software wise on the horizon that's gonna move the needle, and feel like all VR discussion has just dropped off from enthusiast personalities, etc.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
I don't think Sony could even ship that many PSVR. You can't even buy it from Amazon or Best Buy online right now it's sold out.
In finance news "on track" is usually code telling investors not to panic. If the launch was a big success you can bet they'd be crowing about it in no uncertain terms.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Are you seriously ok with how Nintendo has handled the NES Classic? I mean, really?
SirClinksAlot
Member
Nintendo aint going to hire you bro, calm down.
It's a shitty accusation because it assumes that the seller expect a phenomenon when it's clear they didn't have that much faith in it.
I know hindsight and all that but really they're limited in how much they supply and (in this case) their supplier may have been burned by the previous product being an anchor to drag for a while.
Kinda like how Nintendo had to sell the NES as a toy over a game system in the 80's to even get retailers to stock the damn thing.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Obliterator
Member
I don't think PSVR was a shocking success, but I'm not seeing much evidence it bombed either. Its been totally sold out on Amazon, GameStop etc. for a while now. I'm thinking its probably performed right around where they expected it to be.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Why would investors, publishers,ect use this number over Sony's own internal estimates?
Why does radio shack ask for you phone number when you buy batteries?
Ninja Scooter
Member
Why does Radio Shack?
Hellsing321
Member
Did Sony ever say they were hoping to even ship that many this fiscal quarter, let alone by the end of this year?
That could be the case. I'm assuming SuperData's forecast model/tools were based on extremely limited information on other VR headset(s) sales and an extremely optimistic view on what PSVR would be able to do in its launch window. While Sony hasn't announced PSVR numbers, I don't think their sell-through numbers are super high. If they were they would have announced them by now, right?
Yeah, I agree.
Maintenance
Member
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
It doesn't really need marketing right now. It's impossible to find, at least around here, and word of mouth is strong.
At first it was just the bundles that were constantly sold out but now it's everything.
If they're shipping low numbers then that's the real headscratcher.
Obliterator
Member
I think its very difficult to not call PSVR a success or not meeting Sony's expectations. Let's take a look at the current things we have at our disposal
- GameStop.com is sold out and has been sold out of the standalone for well over a week
http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=16k-3-Playstation+VR,28zu0
When I click check availability in store, it gave every location within 100 miles of me that had them. There were many store in my area that don't even appear due to no stock and those listed only show Low Stock. Not one is listed with plenty of stock
Amazon is sold out of the standalone and has been for well over a week
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DE9DY8S/?tag=neogaf0e-20
Given Sony is clearly selling through the inventory they are able to manufacture, I think things are sitting just fine from their point of view.
- GameStop.com is sold out and has been sold out of the standalone for well over a week
http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=16k-3-Playstation+VR,28zu0
When I click check availability in store, it gave every location within 100 miles of me that had them. There were many store in my area that don't even appear due to no stock and those listed only show Low Stock. Not one is listed with plenty of stock
Amazon is sold out of the standalone and has been for well over a week
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DE9DY8S/?tag=neogaf0e-20
Given Sony is clearly selling through the inventory they are able to manufacture, I think things are sitting just fine from their point of view.
Their initial estimation was way too high, the writing should've been on the wall after Oculus and to a lesser extent Vive failed to launch into mainstream (though I don't know when they made their prediction, maybe before that). But I think there's little denying that Sony fucked up this launch, especially with the PS4Pro snafu. It may be supply constrained, but there's also no latent need created due to a complete lack of advertising. The early adopters got it (and I'm already hearing from relatives they're thinking about selling it, because even with a full push of big publisher games, it's still a lot of novelty effect and not much else) and that's it. I don't know what they're doing not advertising it. Even if it is due to supply constraints. Good luck getting people excited for something that's already four months on the market, in February.
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